______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 64 – January 30, 2006
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
Major indices are making another
run toward the upper band of a 2-year rising wedge.
1.1 Another Run
After falling back into a
2-year rising wedge pattern, the major indices have once again risen above
resistance and this time with more impressive volume. Recent performance is
illustrated by the NYSE Composite Index in Figure 1.
FIGURE 1
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
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site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
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with trading system companies.
1.2 Major Indices
From a macro view, the
major indices appear to reflect similar behavior. In spite of this similarity,
they have important differences in their makeup and the way they are calculated.
The Dow Jones
Industrial Average (DJIA) has been based on only 30 stocks since 1928.
Currently, the decision concerning which stocks are to be included in the DOW 30 is based on the subjective judgment of the Wall
Street Journal managing editor & index editor. In general, the DOW 30
stocks are intended to include the largest & most well-established
("Blue Chip") publicly-traded Industrial (meaning not Transportation
or Utility) companies in America. Stocks in the DJIA account for just less
than 30% of total American equity capitalization. Unlike other stock market
indices, the DOW is not weighted by market capitalization (price multiplied by
the number of shares outstanding). Originally, Charles Dow simply added-up the
prices and divided by the number of stocks to get an average. To preserve
historical continuity, the divisor has been continually adjusted -- most
frequently to account for stock splits. As an example, consider an averaged
index composed of three stocks selling at $5, $10 and $15. The average
price of these stocks would be $10. But if the $15 stock split 3-for-1, the
average stock price would suddenly become $6.67. By changing the divisor from
3 to 2 to correct for the split, the average remains $10. Over the years the
divisor has become smaller and smaller, falling below 1 in 1986 following
a 2-for-1 stock split by Merck. Dividing by a number less than one is
multiplication.
To find the current
DOW divisor, divide the DJIA by the sum of the prices of the stocks. On
Monday, November 15, 2004 the divisor became 0.13532775 -- meaning each
$1 change in a DOW stock price caused a nearly 7.4-point change in the
DJIA. The fact that the DOW is a price-average index means that high-priced
stocks have a bigger impact on the index. A 10% move in a $100 stock has
5 times the effect of a 10% in a $20 stock. The greater
"weighting" of the high-priced stocks in the DOW has a similar effect
as the weighing by market capitalization for other indices.
The NYSE Composite
Index in Figure 1 reflects the behavior of 2,049 common stocks. The
NYSE Composite Index -- comprised of all the stocks listed in the New York
Stock Exchange -- would seemingly be more representative of market activity for
America's most established companies, but it is not widely watched. The main
reason that the DOW is the most popular index is because it has been watched
& quoted for so many years. The DOW undoubtedly exerts a disproportionate
impact on investor psychology.
The NASDAQ Composite
Index is a market capitalization weighting of prices for all the stocks
listed in the NASDAQ Stock Market. Market capitalization is price per share of
stock times the number of shares outstanding. In contrast to the
S&P 500 which has about a quarter of its market cap in technology,
two-thirds of the NASDAQ Composite market cap is computers, software and
telecommunications (telecom) companies. In contrast to the NYSE, the NASDAQ
Stock Market does not require profitability as a requirement for listing.
The S&P 500
Index is intended to represent the 500 biggest publicly traded
companies in the United States by market capitalization (in contrast to the FORTUNE 500,
which lists the largest 500 companies in terms of sales revenue). Although the
general principle for calculating the S&P 500 Index based on market
capitalization of the largest 500 companies is simple, the details can be
complex. The S&P 500 Index comprises about three-quarters of total
American capitalization. In 2001, forty of the S&P 500 stocks
provided half of the Index's total market cap. In 1999, nine of the
S&P 500 stocks provided half of the Index's total return. So this
index can also be skewed by a disproportionately small number of companies.
There are both objective
& subjective standards for inclusion in the S&P 500 Index. To be
included a company must be profitable. The prospective company must not be closely
held (at least 50% of its stock should be public) and must have a large trading
volume for its shares. Although over a tenth of the companies listed on the
NYSE are foreign (listed as an ADR, with underlying shares held overseas),
these are excluded from the S&P 500. Companies are usually removed
from the Index due to mergers, acquisitions, bankruptcy or a significant drop
in market cap.
The subjective criteria are
based on a committee that meets monthly in New York City to review the stocks
comprising the S&P 500. The meetings are held in secret and minutes
are not released to the public. Inclusion or exclusion of a stock from the
Index can have a dramatic effect on stock price because Index Funds typically
buy more than 5% of a newly listed company's outstanding shares between the
announced inclusion and the inclusion. Companies removed from the
S&P 500 suffer an average 12% loss between the announcement of removal
and the removal but these losses mostly vanish within six months. In the late
1990s the S&P 500 committee showed a distinct bias toward the
inclusion of technology stocks, to reflect their "up-to-date"
attunement with the "New Economy" -- bringing tech stocks to roughly
a quarter of the S&P 500 total value. Price/Earnings ratios (P/Es)
were not a factor in making these inclusions, which resulted in the
S&P 500s P/E average rising well above historic levels.
The Russell 2000
Index comprises the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000
Index, representing about 8% of the Russell 3000 market cap. The
Russell 3000 Index represents about 98% of the total market cap of all
American domiciled corporations. Unlike the Wilshire 5000 Index which
attempts to include all the (more than 5,000) shares of publicly-traded
companies, the Russell 3000 focuses on 3,000 frequently-traded stocks as a
way of creating a more accurate and readily-updated index. The
Russell 3000 is divided into the Russell 1000 and the
Russell 2000. The Russell 1000 Index comprises the largest 1,000
companies in the Russell 3000, representing about 92% of the
Russell 3000 market cap.
Despite the large number of
stocks in the Russell 2000, the Index is no less vulnerable to a
disproportionate influence from a few exceptional performers. In the
June 30, 1999 to February 11, 2000 period the
Russell 2000 advanced 17%, half of which was due to only 13 stocks. The
Russell 2000 Index is far more widely watched & used than the
Russell 3000 or Russell 1000. The Russell 2000 Index is widely
accepted as representing the "small cap" portion of the US stock market.
Most money managers treat
the S&P 500 as a proxy for the US stock market. Although the market
is better represented by the NYSE Composite, the Wilshire 5000 or the Russell
3000, one has to watch the S&P 500, as well as the DOW and NASDAQ, in
order to understand the behavior of large investors. Divergences between these
indices are common but usually small and short term. The more volatile Russell
2000 and NASDAQ typically point the direction for the broader and higher
capitalization indices in a healthy market. To read more, see The Major
American Equity Indices by Ben Best.
2.0 Market Analysis
Sentiment improved
dramatically this week as the market rose, ignoring a low 1.1% fourth quarter
GDP growth rate. Expectations are that a lower growth rate may spur the Fed to
end rate tightening sooner. General bullishness across all sectors, except
biotech and utilities, will eventually reveal leaders and laggards.
Key industry ETF’s in Table
2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation
confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and
Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Real Estate
are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation)
and the capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A
Indices, Key Industry
ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month
|
1 wk ago
|
2 wks ago
|
3 wks ago
|
4 wks ago
|
|
Dow Jones Industrial Index
|
1.8%
|
2.2%
|
-2.7%
|
0.0%
|
2.3%
|
|
NASDAQ Composite Index
|
4.5%
|
2.5%
|
-3.0%
|
0.5%
|
4.5%
|
|
NYSE Composite Index
|
2.8%
|
1.8%
|
-2.0%
|
0.2%
|
3.0%
|
|
S & P 500 Index
|
4.4%
|
2.5%
|
-1.5%
|
-0.1%
|
3.6%
|
|
Russell 2000 Index
|
8.8%
|
3.9%
|
-0.5%
|
1.3%
|
3.9%
|
|
GLD, GOLD
|
7.9%
|
0.8%
|
-0.4%
|
3.2%
|
4.1%
|
|
RKH, Banking
|
1.4%
|
3.5%
|
-3.5%
|
-0.7%
|
2.2%
|
|
IYT, Transportation
|
2.2%
|
3.8%
|
0.0%
|
-1.7%
|
0.2%
|
|
SMH, Semiconductors
|
4.3%
|
2.2%
|
-5.2%
|
-0.5%
|
8.2%
|
|
BBH, Biotechnology
|
-3.0%
|
-0.5%
|
-1.6%
|
-1.4%
|
0.5%
|
|
IYR, Real Estate
|
7.4%
|
3.0%
|
-0.3%
|
-0.1%
|
4.8%
|
|
OIH, Oil
|
18.7%
|
0.8%
|
6.6%
|
1.7%
|
8.7%
|
|
XLE,
Energy
|
12.6%
|
0.4%
|
3.6%
|
1.9%
|
6.3%
|
|
XLU,
Utilities
|
3.1%
|
-1.0%
|
1.6%
|
0.1%
|
2.5%
|
|
XLB,
Materials
|
4.4%
|
4.9%
|
-1.5%
|
-2.6%
|
3.7%
|
|
XLI,
Industrial
|
0.6%
|
2.1%
|
-2.1%
|
-0.5%
|
1.1%
|
|
XLK,
Technology
|
3.9%
|
2.1%
|
-3.9%
|
0.6%
|
5.3%
|
|
XLV,
Healthcare
|
1.8%
|
1.0%
|
-1.5%
|
-0.3%
|
2.6%
|
|
XLF,
Financials
|
1.6%
|
2.7%
|
-3.7%
|
0.2%
|
2.5%
|
|
XLP,
Consumer Staples
|
1.0%
|
1.6%
|
-1.3%
|
-0.1%
|
0.9%
|
|
XLY,
Consumer Discretionary
|
2.4%
|
1.5%
|
-1.8%
|
0.7%
|
2.1%
|
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades.
Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as
well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders.
Current stock rankings are
based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 10-period
Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1”
and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day.
Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative
than -20 are overbought.
A column labeled “Weekly %
Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the
past week and the Williams %R.
One should keep in mind
that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very
well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as
a starting point for further due diligence.
The “Reference” is the date
that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to
the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.
Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of
about two months. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined
from the maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down
8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are
down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months. More
information on filters is available on the web site.
A performance summary of
filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is
given in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter
|
Avg. % Change Since Listed
|
Avg. % Change Friday
|
1 Month
|
1 Week Ago
|
2 weeks Ago
|
3 Weeks Ago
|
4 Weeks Ago
|
|
Net Insider Buying
|
11.8%
|
0.6%
|
19.7%
|
3.2%
|
4.0%
|
6.3%
|
4.1%
|
|
Cash Rich Companies
|
8.0%
|
0.2%
|
3.0%
|
4.8%
|
-1.5%
|
-0.5%
|
0.3%
|
|
Price to Free Cash Flow
|
6.0%
|
0.8%
|
7.5%
|
6.3%
|
-3.2%
|
3.0%
|
1.6%
|
|
Growth Momentum Stocks
|
14.6%
|
1.0%
|
7.2%
|
3.0%
|
-1.0%
|
0.9%
|
4.3%
|
|
Lynch Stocks
|
28.0%
|
0.3%
|
3.5%
|
2.0%
|
-2.1%
|
-0.4%
|
3.9%
|
|
Buffett Stocks
|
22.0%
|
1.0%
|
7.1%
|
4.7%
|
-1.4%
|
0.6%
|
3.1%
|
|
Graham Stocks
|
13.7%
|
0.9%
|
4.7%
|
0.9%
|
0.4%
|
0.6%
|
2.8%
|
|
Templeton Stocks
|
2.9%
|
0.2%
|
-0.6%
|
0.9%
|
-1.8%
|
0.1%
|
0.3%
|
|
Zweig Stocks
|
22.8%
|
0.6%
|
11.1%
|
4.2%
|
0.4%
|
2.4%
|
3.8%
|
|
Average Long Stocks
|
14.4%
|
0.6%
|
7.0%
|
3.3%
|
-0.7%
|
1.5%
|
2.7%
|
Key
|
Passed Recent Filter
|
|
Price declined by half of stop
loss setting
|
|
Oversold based on Williams %R
(%R2 is most recent)
|
|
Overbought based on Williams %R (%R2 is most
recent)
|
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master
trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious
consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those
that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
NXTM
|
01/06/06
|
-8.6%
|
NxStage
Medical, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-12.5%
|
-3.9%
|
-78
|
-80
|
|
SNSS
|
12/16/05
|
-0.8%
|
Sunesis
Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Major
Drugs
|
-10.7%
|
0.6%
|
-52
|
-62
|
|
MEAD
|
12/23/05
|
19.5%
|
Meade
Instruments Corp.
|
Technology
|
Scientific
& Technical Instruments
|
-7.4%
|
-7.4%
|
-53
|
-49
|
|
AMIC
|
01/13/06
|
-1.8%
|
American
Independence Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Miscellaneous)
|
-2.7%
|
-2.7%
|
-14
|
-45
|
|
MBRX
|
10/14/05
|
51.8%
|
Metabasis
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-1.6%
|
0.0%
|
-23
|
-43
|
|
XGEN
|
11/25/05
|
0.0%
|
Xenogen
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Scientific
& Technical Instruments
|
-10.9%
|
-1.0%
|
-57
|
-43
|
|
VSTA
|
10/21/05
|
6.4%
|
VistaCare,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-3.0%
|
2.5%
|
-49
|
-42
|
|
EQS
|
01/13/06
|
0.0%
|
Equus II
Incorporated
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
-0.7%
|
7.7%
|
-49
|
-33
|
|
LXU
|
12/23/05
|
-2.4%
|
LSB
Industries, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-7.2%
|
-1.4%
|
0
|
-32
|
|
MMLP
|
11/25/05
|
0.0%
|
Martin
Midstream Partners L.P.
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
-6.1%
|
0.2%
|
-48
|
-30
|
|
MNKD
|
12/30/05
|
59.9%
|
MannKind
Corporation
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.2%
|
-2.2%
|
-22
|
-19
|
|
IDMI
|
01/20/06
|
-1.9%
|
IDM Pharma
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-1.9%
|
-1.9%
|
-19
|
-16
|
|
SOMX
|
01/13/06
|
39.0%
|
Somaxon
Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.2%
|
15.0%
|
-9
|
-15
|
|
ISO
|
01/20/06
|
0.0%
|
ISCO
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
0.0%
|
17.1%
|
-11
|
-11
|
|
TRMA
|
01/06/06
|
22.4%
|
Trico
Marine Services Inc
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
0.0%
|
7.9%
|
-12
|
-10
|
|
BDOG
|
12/16/05
|
13.5%
|
Big Dog
Holdings, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
6.4%
|
-29
|
-7
|
|
OTL
|
01/13/06
|
26.1%
|
Octel
Corp.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
0.0%
|
20.3%
|
-30
|
-7
|
|
CWEI
|
12/09/05
|
0.0%
|
Clayton
Williams Energy, Inc.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
0.0%
|
2.7%
|
-26
|
-6
|
|
NTOP
|
01/20/06
|
1.0%
|
Net2Phone,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
0.0%
|
1.0%
|
-100
|
0
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.
These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet
additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again
this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
HRAY
|
01/27/06
|
0.0%
|
Hurray!
Holding Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
0.0%
|
-9.2%
|
-22
|
-97
|
|
CLCT
|
01/27/06
|
0.0%
|
Collectors
Universe, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
0.0%
|
0.3%
|
-91
|
-90
|
|
WSC
|
07/01/05
|
6.8%
|
Wesco
Financial Corporation
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-1.2%
|
0.5%
|
-52
|
-48
|
|
HIH
|
01/20/06
|
9.1%
|
Highland
Hospitality Corporation
|
Services
|
Hotels
& Motels
|
0.0%
|
9.1%
|
-14
|
-11
|
Table 3D was added to
contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5. Companies
having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of
all their outstanding shares of stock.
Table 3D
Price to Free Cash Flow Companies
Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
MOVI
|
01/20/06
|
3.8%
|
Movie
Gallery, Inc.
|
Services
|
Recreational
Activities
|
0.0%
|
3.8%
|
-52
|
-45
|
|
BBI
|
01/20/06
|
5.7%
|
Blockbuster
Inc.
|
Services
|
Recreational
Activities
|
0.0%
|
5.7%
|
-44
|
-32
|
|
F
|
11/11/05
|
8.5%
|
FORD MOTOR
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-3.1%
|
9.5%
|
-20
|
-17
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
TMX
|
06/03/05
|
29.8%
|
Telefonos
de Mexico, S.A. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-7.8%
|
0.9%
|
-57
|
-63
|
|
BTI
|
08/12/05
|
10.7%
|
British
American Tobacco (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Tobacco
|
-3.8%
|
-0.8%
|
-23
|
-47
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
36.6%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-5.3%
|
-0.1%
|
-57
|
-46
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
45.7%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-4.0%
|
2.0%
|
-62
|
-36
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
14.3%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-0.4%
|
6.9%
|
-17
|
-14
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
31.0%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
0.0%
|
3.1%
|
-45
|
-4
|
For the screen in
Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3F
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
VIP
|
12/09/05
|
4.0%
|
Vimpel-Communications
(ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-5.3%
|
-3.4%
|
-79
|
-93
|
|
MOT
|
12/09/05
|
-3.9%
|
Motorola,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-8.3%
|
0.1%
|
-64
|
-84
|
|
HCC
|
10/21/05
|
14.2%
|
HCC
Insurance Holdings, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-5.6%
|
-0.9%
|
-62
|
-81
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
18.4%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-3.2%
|
-1.7%
|
-43
|
-77
|
|
ENDP
|
11/18/05
|
-4.3%
|
Endo
Pharmaceuticals
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-12.5%
|
1.0%
|
-97
|
-74
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
25.5%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-8.2%
|
-1.6%
|
-87
|
-71
|
|
CTX
|
11/18/05
|
-1.5%
|
Centex
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.9%
|
-1.1%
|
-83
|
-67
|
|
ADTN
|
11/25/05
|
0.0%
|
ADTRAN,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-8.7%
|
-3.9%
|
-53
|
-52
|
|
BJS
|
11/04/05
|
18.6%
|
BJ
Services Company
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
-5.3%
|
-1.9%
|
-58
|
-49
|
|
ZIGO
|
12/09/05
|
7.5%
|
Zygo
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
0.0%
|
0.8%
|
-54
|
-43
|
|
BEN
|
11/04/05
|
10.7%
|
Franklin
Resources, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.0%
|
4.1%
|
-29
|
-27
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
24.1%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
0.0%
|
3.1%
|
-37
|
-14
|
|
LM
|
08/12/05
|
22.4%
|
Legg
Mason, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.0%
|
2.4%
|
-29
|
-12
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
35.9%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-4.2%
|
6.2%
|
-17
|
-8
|
|
WSO
|
11/25/05
|
15.4%
|
Watsco,
Incorporated
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
0.0%
|
4.9%
|
-24
|
-7
|
|
ET
|
10/21/05
|
30.6%
|
E*TRADE
FINANCIAL Corporation
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.0%
|
8.6%
|
-25
|
-6
|
|
GOL
|
12/16/05
|
14.4%
|
GOL Linhas
Aereas Inteligentes SA (ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Airline
|
0.0%
|
17.2%
|
-14
|
-5
|
|
PCU
|
12/02/05
|
20.0%
|
Southern
Copper Corporation (USA)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Metal
Mining
|
0.0%
|
15.0%
|
-44
|
-4
|
|
BHP
|
09/09/05
|
25.1%
|
BHP
Billiton Limited (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Metal
Mining
|
0.0%
|
7.9%
|
-17
|
-1
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
35.6%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-6.1%
|
-4.1%
|
-66
|
-89
|
|
CCRT
|
12/30/05
|
3.0%
|
CompuCredit
Corporation
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-3.9%
|
-1.2%
|
-77
|
-79
|
|
TOL
|
12/16/05
|
-7.0%
|
Toll
Brothers, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-13.0%
|
-1.3%
|
-83
|
-77
|
|
MDC
|
01/20/06
|
-2.0%
|
M.D.C.
Holdings, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-2.0%
|
-2.0%
|
-82
|
-75
|
|
NKE
|
09/23/05
|
2.3%
|
NIKE, Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Footwear
|
-9.1%
|
-1.2%
|
-62
|
-70
|
|
DHI
|
10/21/05
|
23.8%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.3%
|
0.7%
|
-76
|
-57
|
|
RCII
|
10/21/05
|
25.8%
|
Rent-A-Center,
Inc
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
-1.7%
|
0.0%
|
-23
|
-48
|
|
BTI
|
12/30/05
|
-0.9%
|
British
American Tobacco (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Tobacco
|
-2.9%
|
-0.8%
|
-23
|
-47
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
14.4%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-4.9%
|
8.2%
|
-13
|
-43
|
|
FOSL
|
12/02/05
|
13.0%
|
Fossil,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Jewelry
& Silverware
|
-1.2%
|
1.7%
|
-35
|
-40
|
|
MTH
|
01/27/06
|
0.0%
|
Meritage
Homes Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
5.2%
|
-49
|
-39
|
|
EASI
|
09/09/05
|
27.4%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-0.8%
|
0.8%
|
-12
|
-33
|
|
ASH
|
10/28/05
|
23.2%
|
Ashland
Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
3.7%
|
-39
|
-27
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
2.0%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-6.6%
|
1.8%
|
-53
|
-27
|
|
MIK
|
10/14/05
|
10.5%
|
Michaels
Stores, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-10.8%
|
4.4%
|
-28
|
-23
|
|
PSUN
|
12/09/05
|
-2.7%
|
Pacific
Sunwear of CA
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
-4.2%
|
6.2%
|
-35
|
-16
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
58.2%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
-1.5%
|
4.1%
|
-34
|
-15
|
|
RI
|
09/02/05
|
34.3%
|
Ruby
Tuesday, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
0.0%
|
9.1%
|
-13
|
-12
|
|
FNF
|
10/21/05
|
7.2%
|
Fidelity
National Financial
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-0.8%
|
4.1%
|
-7
|
-10
|
|
HDI
|
10/14/05
|
11.1%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-2.0%
|
2.9%
|
-19
|
-7
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
110.1%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
0.0%
|
11.0%
|
-20
|
-6
|
|
STLD
|
12/16/05
|
30.8%
|
Steel
Dynamics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
0.0%
|
24.7%
|
-34
|
-6
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
32.7%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
13.1%
|
-76
|
-3
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
75.2%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
0.0%
|
22.1%
|
-30
|
0
|
Stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3H
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
OKE
|
11/11/05
|
4.2%
|
ONEOK,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-4.5%
|
-2.6%
|
-83
|
-97
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
20.1%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-11.2%
|
-1.9%
|
-92
|
-88
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
-2.2%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-11.5%
|
-0.4%
|
-80
|
-63
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
11.3%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-3.7%
|
1.0%
|
-69
|
-35
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
-1.0%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-4.7%
|
0.6%
|
-45
|
-31
|
|
UGI
|
12/30/05
|
6.5%
|
UGI
Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-2.1%
|
0.1%
|
-85
|
-31
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
1.0%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-6.2%
|
1.1%
|
-21
|
-25
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
33.5%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
1.1%
|
-40
|
-23
|
|
WGL
|
12/23/05
|
2.3%
|
WGL
Holdings, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
3.7%
|
-50
|
-12
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
78.9%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
0.0%
|
4.2%
|
-43
|
-11
|
|
UU
|
06/10/05
|
1.1%
|
United
Utilities PLC (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-1.2%
|
1.9%
|
-10
|
-8
|
|
ATG
|
10/21/05
|
9.5%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.3%
|
1.7%
|
-25
|
-2
|
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of
investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
John Templeton Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
CPS
|
05/27/05
|
6.1%
|
ChoicePoint
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-8.2%
|
-7.1%
|
-83
|
-92
|
|
WSM
|
09/02/05
|
7.0%
|
Williams-Sonoma,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-9.9%
|
-0.8%
|
-89
|
-90
|
|
GISX
|
12/30/05
|
3.3%
|
Global
Imaging Systems, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Office
Equipment
|
-2.8%
|
-2.2%
|
-83
|
-83
|
|
TOL
|
12/09/05
|
-1.4%
|
Toll
Brothers, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-13.0%
|
-1.3%
|
-83
|
-77
|
|
HHS
|
10/28/05
|
1.5%
|
Harte-Hanks,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Printing
& Publishing
|
-3.9%
|
-0.3%
|
-73
|
-77
|
|
MDC
|
12/30/05
|
2.9%
|
M.D.C.
Holdings, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-4.6%
|
-2.0%
|
-82
|
-75
|
|
UNH
|
12/30/05
|
-5.8%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-6.9%
|
-1.6%
|
-87
|
-71
|
|
AMSG
|
10/14/05
|
-4.4%
|
AmSurg
Corp.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-9.7%
|
-1.6%
|
-75
|
-71
|
|
EDMC
|
12/16/05
|
-8.8%
|
Education
Management Corp
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-9.6%
|
-0.6%
|
-70
|
-67
|
|
DGX
|
08/19/05
|
0.8%
|
Quest
Diagnostics Incorporated
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-4.1%
|
-0.1%
|
-48
|
-54
|
|
SPF
|
01/13/06
|
-3.1%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-3.1%
|
0.5%
|
-66
|
-50
|
|
LOW
|
11/18/05
|
-1.3%
|
Lowe's
Companies, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
-6.2%
|
3.1%
|
-48
|
-44
|
|
CAKE
|
10/21/05
|
7.4%
|
The
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-3.8%
|
2.8%
|
-41
|
-44
|
|
EASI
|
06/03/05
|
22.2%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-0.8%
|
0.8%
|
-12
|
-33
|
|
KSWS
|
12/30/05
|
-2.0%
|
K-Swiss
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Footwear
|
-2.0%
|
4.2%
|
-37
|
-29
|
|
EWBC
|
12/30/05
|
3.0%
|
East West
Bancorp, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
0.0%
|
4.5%
|
-51
|
-28
|
|
SFG
|
05/27/05
|
32.2%
|
StanCorp
Financial Group, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Life)
|
-6.4%
|
4.1%
|
-22
|
-26
|
|
MIK
|
12/30/05
|
-2.7%
|
Michaels
Stores, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-2.7%
|
4.4%
|
-28
|
-23
|
|
CHD
|
11/18/05
|
4.8%
|
Church
& Dwight Co., Inc.
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Personal
& Household Products
|
0.0%
|
4.3%
|
-15
|
-14
|
|
ORLY
|
01/20/06
|
4.4%
|
O'Reilly
Automotive, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
4.4%
|
-26
|
-6
|
|
SNV
|
05/27/05
|
-5.0%
|
Synovus
Financial Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-7.2%
|
3.2%
|
-12
|
-4
|
Optionable stocks from
Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J.
Table 3J
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
MOT
|
01/20/06
|
0.1%
|
Motorola,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-2.0%
|
0.1%
|
-64
|
-84
|
|
CTX
|
10/28/05
|
14.5%
|
Centex
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.9%
|
-1.1%
|
-83
|
-67
|
|
MDU
|
01/27/06
|
0.0%
|
MDU
Resources Group, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
-1.3%
|
-63
|
-61
|
|
APA
|
12/23/05
|
1.5%
|
Apache
Corporation
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-3.7%
|
-3.7%
|
-82
|
-57
|
|
DHI
|
11/18/05
|
10.3%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.3%
|
0.7%
|
-76
|
-57
|
|
STRA
|
01/13/06
|
-0.2%
|
Strayer
Education, Inc.
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-2.8%
|
0.5%
|
-59
|
-53
|
|
ZIGO
|
11/11/05
|
14.3%
|
Zygo
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
0.0%
|
0.8%
|
-54
|
-43
|
|
ESI
|
11/04/05
|
0.2%
|
ITT
Educational Services
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-5.1%
|
4.3%
|
-18
|
-41
|
|
SFY
|
10/14/05
|
12.4%
|
Swift
Energy Company
|
Energy
|
