Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter

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Issue No. 66   February 13, 2006                    Prescott, Arizona                       Systems@WiserTrader.com

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1.0   Trading

 

      The number of periods for the Williams %R has been increased from 10 periods to 28 periods to reflect a longer-term view as the market is likely to remain choppy for a while.

 

1.1 Settling In

 

        Market performance is illustrated by the S&P 500 Index in Figure 1.  In spite of recent choppiness and good volume, the rising wedge pattern continues to hold.

 

FIGURE 1

 

© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC.  Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed brokers nor licensed advisors.  Trades discussed represent recommendations made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio.  The newsletter and web site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.  While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be made in transcription.  Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser.  WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation with trading system companies.

 

1.2 Trading with the Market

 

      It was pointed out earlier how bull market health can be measured by the relative strength of risk takers as compared with more conservative investors.  Risk takers are more interested in NASDAQ stocks while the conservative investor has more interest in large cap stocks in the S&P 500.  The premise was that a healthy bull market is characterized by the NASDAQ percentage gains outpacing those of the S&P 500.  The percentage change in the NASDAQ and S&P500 are plotted in Figure 2 on the left axis.  Notice how they move in tandem with minor periodic changes in the distance between them.  When they rise, the NASDAQ rises faster than the S&P 500.  As they decline, the NASDAQ declines faster than the S&P 500.  The NASDAQ changing faster than the S&P 500 directly affects the slope of the QQQQ to SPY ratio.  The QQQQ/SPY ratio is plotted on the right axis.

 

 

FIGURE 2

 

      The QQQQ/SPY ratio is quite erratic from day to day and is difficult to use as a trading guide.  A simple modification can be made for short-term trading by plotting the daily change in the ratio, which is its first derivative d(Q/S), along with the 3-day average d(Q/S)_avg3, instead of the ratio itself.  The first derivative and it 3-day average are plotted in Figure 3 using data from the right half of Figure 2.

 

      The trading value of this information is found when one attempts to trade in the same direction as the major averages.  When the first derivative and its 3-day moving average cross the zero axis, it is an indication that the NASDAQ (or QQQQ) is changing faster than the S&P 500 (or SPY).  Consequently, the percentage change in both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are subsequently seen to continue further in their current direction. 

 

      The rising of both lines above zero signals it is a good time to enter short-term trades on the long side, as long as the most recent move for NASDAQ and S&P 500 were both upward.  More precisely, the derivative will trigger by crossing zero in a substantial manner while the 3-day average moving across zero is a confirmation.  The trade remains open as long as both lines remain above zero.  When the first derivative turns sharply back toward zero, it is time to get out of the trade.  In many cases, this last signal gets you out of a long trade just before the NASDAQ and S&P 500 both drop substantially.  However, there are cases of false signals caused by unpredictable 1-day spikes.

 

      A similar set of reasoning can be applied for making trades on the short side when the most recent moves for NASDAQ and S&P 500 have been downward.  When the first derivative and its 3-day moving average dip below zero, the major averages decrease further.

 

FIGURE 3

 

        This technique is designed to let one know when major averages are continuing in the direction of trade or turning or against it.  Right now, the first derivative has moved above zero while the 3-day average is waiting to confirm a continuation of Friday’s upward move.  The technique requires more study and back testing to eliminate false signals.

 

2.0 Market Analysis

 

      For all it movement this week, the market went nowhere.  Suddenly investors are uncertain about rate increases.  Last week most had already concluded that another rate hike was likely at the March 28 FOMC meeting. The market is obsessed with inflation and interest rate increases. 

 

      Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ.  Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory.  Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500.  Gold and Real Estate are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending. 

 

 

 

Table 2A

 
Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s

 

1 month

1 wk ago

2 wks ago

3 wks ago

4 wks ago

Dow Jones Industrial Index

-0.4%

1.2%

-1.0%

2.2%

-2.7%

NASDAQ Composite Index

-2.4%

0.0%

-1.8%

2.5%

-3.0%

NYSE Composite Index

-1.6%

0.2%

-1.5%

1.8%

-2.0%

S & P 500 Index

-0.6%

-0.3%

-1.2%

2.5%

-1.5%

Russell 2000 Index

1.2%

-1.0%

-1.1%

3.9%

-0.5%

GLD, GOLD

-1.2%

-3.0%

1.6%

0.8%

-0.4%

RKH, Banking

-0.7%

1.6%

-2.1%

3.5%

-3.5%

IYT, Transportation

4.1%

1.4%

-1.0%

3.8%

0.0%

SMH, Semiconductors

-3.4%

2.7%

-3.0%

2.2%

-5.2%

BBH, Biotechnology

-4.2%

-3.1%

1.1%

-0.5%

-1.6%

IYR, Real Estate

0.8%

-0.4%

-1.3%

3.0%

-0.3%

OIH, Oil

0.2%

-4.6%

-2.2%

0.8%

6.6%

XLE, Energy

-3.5%

-4.9%

-2.5%

0.4%

3.6%

XLU, Utilities

-1.3%

0.4%

-2.3%

-1.0%

1.6%

XLB, Materials

1.0%

-0.6%

-1.6%

4.9%

-1.5%

XLI, Industrial

0.8%

1.3%

-0.6%

2.1%

-2.1%

XLK, Technology

-2.2%

1.7%

-2.0%

2.1%

-3.9%

XLV, Healthcare

-1.3%

0.1%

-0.9%

1.0%

-1.5%

XLF, Financials

-1.8%

1.1%

-1.8%

2.7%

-3.7%

XLP, Consumer Staples

-1.1%

-0.1%

-1.3%

1.6%

-1.3%

XLY, Consumer Discretionary

-0.9%

0.4%

-0.9%

1.5%

-1.8%

 

 

VTO Report on Market Sentiment Indicators

Sentiment Indicator

Current

Last Week

2 Weeks Ago

Complacent

Cautious

VIX **

12.9

13.0

12.0

< 20

> 50

VXN ***

16.9

17.5

17.3

< 30

> 70

Put/Call Ratio

0.583

0.698

0.592

< 0.6

> 0.7

%Bulls - %Bears

26.3%

26.8%

28.4%

> 29%

< 20%

**   At 20 day SMA = Short-term neutral.

*** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal.

 

 

 

 

      Figure 1 compares index tracking stocks for the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s.

 

FIGURE 1

 

 


 

 

Table 2C

Market Summary


 
 

 Major Indices 
 For the Past Week:
 Dow Jones     +1.2%
 NASDAQ         0.0%
 S&P500 Index  +0.2%
 Russell 2000  -1.0%
 
 30 Year Bond 4.547%
 10 Year Note 4.581%
 
 Leading Industries
 For the Past Week:
 Insurance Brokers 
 Waste & Disposal Services 
 Full Line Insurance 
 Trucking 
 Telecommunications Equipment 
 Hotels 
 Transportation Services 
 Fixed Line Telecommunications 
 Electronic Equipment 
 Forestry              
 
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Week:
 General Mining 
 Platinum & Precious Metals  
 Coal 
 Mining 
 Nonferrous Metals 
 Exploration & Production 
 Gold Mining 
 Basic Resources 
 Oil & Gas Producers 
 Home Construction      
          
 Leading Industries
 For the Past Month:
 Steel 
 Railroads 
 Commercial Vehicles & Trucks 
 Industrial Metals 
 Fixed Line Telecommunications 
 Waste & Disposal Services 
 Building Materials & Fixtures 
 Aluminum 
 Restaurants & Bars 
 Construction & Materials  
 
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Month:
 Internet 
 Tires 
 Home Construction 
 General Mining 
 Auto Parts 
 Automobiles & Parts 
 Marine Transportation 
 Home Improvement Retailers 
 Reinsurance 
 Brewers                  
 
 Crude Oil $61.84
 
 Gold for the past 30 days:
 USD    +0.31%
 CAD    +0.05%
 CHF    +2.74%
 GBP    +1.34%
 EUR    +2.06%
 JPY    +3.41%

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

3.0 Procedure

 

      The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration.  They are not necessarily trades.  Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders. 

 

      Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days.  Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day.  Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.

 

      One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward.  They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline.  The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence. 

 

      A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R.  The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.

 

      The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list.  The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months.  The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow.  Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months.  More information on filters is available on the web site.

 

      A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A. 

 

 

Table 3A

Stock Filter Summary

Filter

Avg. % Change Since Listed

Avg. % Change Friday

1 Month

1 Week Ago

2 weeks Ago

3 Weeks Ago

4 Weeks Ago

Net Insider Buying

9.9%

-1.3%

3.2%

-1.9%

0.7%

0.6%

3.5%

Cash Rich Companies

11.7%

0.6%

8.0%

2.9%

-0.4%

9.1%

-3.3%

Price to Free Cash Flow

2.4%

-1.3%

0.3%

-1.5%

-2.9%

6.6%

-1.6%

Growth Momentum Stocks

14.2%

0.2%

4.9%

0.4%

-0.1%

5.4%

-0.6%

Lynch Stocks

22.9%

-0.1%

-0.3%

0.0%

-0.5%

2.4%

-2.2%

Buffett Stocks

17.2%

0.2%

2.7%

-1.3%

-0.4%

5.7%

-1.1%

Graham Stocks

10.5%

0.0%

-1.6%

-0.1%

-2.7%

0.9%

0.4%

Templeton Stocks

2.5%

0.1%

-0.3%

-0.4%

0.5%

1.7%

-2.0%

 Zweig Stocks

15.7%

0.3%

5.0%

0.2%

0.7%

4.7%

-0.3%

Average Long Stocks

11.9%

-0.2%

2.4%

-0.2%

-0.6%

4.1%

-0.8%

 

 

 

Key

Passed Recent Filter

Price declined by half of stop loss setting

Oversold  based on  Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

Overbought based on Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

 

 

 

      Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

 

Table 3B

Net Insider Buying Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

MWY

02/10/06

0.0%

Midway Games Inc.

Technology

Software & Programming

0.0%

-30.6%

-94

-97

SNSS

12/16/05

-0.6%

Sunesis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Health Care

Major Drugs

-10.5%

-5.2%

-73

-78

MMLP

11/25/05

0.0%

Martin Midstream Partners L.P.

Transportation

Water Transportation

-8.8%

-1.3%

-41

-71

NTOP

01/20/06

-0.5%

Net2Phone, Inc.

Services

Communications Services

-1.5%

-0.5%

-50

-67

AMIC

01/13/06

-3.0%

American Independence Corp.

Financial

Insurance (Miscellaneous)

-3.9%

-3.0%

-28

-63

XGEN

11/25/05

0.0%

Xenogen Corporation

Technology

Scientific & Technical Instruments

-9.7%

-0.3%

-64

-59

CWEI

12/09/05

0.0%

Clayton Williams Energy, Inc.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-14.6%

-1.4%

-51

-58

NXTM

01/06/06

-3.1%

NxStage Medical, Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-7.2%

0.8%

-42

-51

TRMA

01/06/06

10.2%

Trico Marine Services Inc

Energy

Oil Well Services & Equipment

-11.8%

-6.2%

-47

-49

VSTA

10/21/05

6.7%

VistaCare, Inc.

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-5.4%

1.6%

-9

-42

MBRX

10/14/05

50.8%

Metabasis Therapeutics, Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-2.7%

-2.3%

-45

-28

BDOG

12/16/05

20.5%

Big Dog Holdings, Inc.

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-5.1%

6.9%

-14

-25

IDMI

01/20/06

-4.7%

IDM Pharma Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-4.7%

17.1%

-18

-18

MEAD

12/23/05

29.0%

Meade Instruments Corp.

Technology

Scientific & Technical Instruments

0.0%

17.8%

-20

-10

SOMX

01/13/06

48.3%

Somaxon Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-4.4%

48.3%

-1

-9

LXU

12/23/05

5.0%

LSB Industries, Inc.

Basic Materials

Chemical Manufacturing

-0.9%

9.3%

-5

-7

 

 

      Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

Table 3C

Capital Rich Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

HRAY

01/27/06

0.4%

Hurray! Holding Co., Ltd. (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

-5.5%

-13.7%

-81

-74

CLCT

01/27/06

6.4%

Collectors Universe, Inc.

Services

Business Services

-5.7%

-6.0%

-43

-67

EXAR

02/03/06

-3.1%

Exar Corporation

Technology

Semiconductors

-3.1%

-1.7%

-49

-57

WSC

07/01/05

7.7%

Wesco Financial Corporation

Conglomerates

Conglomerates

-0.7%

1.6%

-40

-33

HIH

01/20/06

11.7%

Highland Hospitality Corporation

Services

Hotels & Motels

-2.2%

8.0%

-22

-19

 

 

      Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5.  Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.

 

Table 3D

Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

F

11/11/05

3.8%

FORD MOTOR

Consumer Cyclical

Auto & Truck Manufacturers

-7.4%

-3.3%

-45

-53

PBR

02/10/06

0.0%

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (ADR)

Energy

Oil & Gas - Integrated

0.0%

0.5%

-35

-49

BBI

01/20/06

3.4%

Blockbuster Inc.

Services

Recreational Activities

-5.2%

3.6%

-34

-38

 

      For the Peter Lynch screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

Table 3E

Peter Lynch Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

CHL

03/18/05

38.1%

China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

-9.0%

-7.5%

-92

-95

AZN

02/03/06

-1.2%

AstraZeneca PLC (ADR)

Health Care

Major Drugs

-1.2%

-7.0%

-90

-94

TM

12/13/04

37.7%

Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR)

Consumer Cyclical

Auto & Truck Manufacturers

-4.5%

-0.9%

-69

-60

KOF

04/29/05

30.0%

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Beverages (Non-Alcoholic)

-1.2%

1.8%

-26

-25

BTI

08/12/05

13.9%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-1.1%

2.5%

-9

-23

SKM

02/07/05

19.0%

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

-0.2%

9.4%

-3

-3

 

 

      For the screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

 

 

Table 3F

Growth Momentum Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

VIP

12/09/05

-0.6%

Vimpel-Communications (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

-9.5%

-9.5%

-90

-91

BEN

11/04/05

3.8%

Franklin Resources, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-6.2%

-3.5%

-89

-84

APC

02/10/06

0.0%

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

0.0%

-3.7%

-64

-75

MOT

12/09/05

-7.7%

Motorola, Inc.

Technology

Communications Equipment

-11.9%

-10.1%

-72

-72

ADTN

11/25/05

0.0%

ADTRAN, Inc.

Technology

Communications Equipment

-12.3%

-9.9%

-64

-70

BHP

09/09/05

13.6%

BHP Billiton Limited (ADR)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-9.5%

0.1%

-44

-70

AHC

02/03/06

0.0%

Amerada Hess Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas - Integrated

-7.1%

-2.8%

-55

-65

UNH

04/15/05

25.7%

UnitedHealth Group Inc.

Financial

Insurance (Accident & Health)

-8.1%

-3.8%

-63

-56

CHE

05/06/05

33.3%

Chemed Corporation

Services

Business Services

-6.1%

0.3%

-50

-56

LM

08/12/05

20.4%

Legg Mason, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-3.1%

2.5%

-34

-37

PCU

12/02/05

23.8%

Southern Copper Corporation (USA)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-8.9%

17.0%

-20

-34

EXP

02/03/06

0.2%

Eagle Materials, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction - Raw Materials

-1.4%

28.6%

-24

-28

SYT

04/08/05

31.0%

Syngenta AG (ADR)

Basic Materials

Chemical Manufacturing

0.0%

9.2%

-30

-26

ET

10/21/05

30.9%

E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corporation

Financial

Investment Services

-1.6%

4.7%

-24

-16

WCC

02/10/06

0.0%

WESCO International, Inc.

Technology

Electronic Instruments & Controls

0.0%

20.7%

-13

-15

OSK

03/12/05

38.1%

Oshkosh Truck Corporation

Consumer Cyclical

Auto & Truck Manufacturers

-1.1%

13.9%

-14

-9

GOL

12/16/05

18.2%

GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA (ADR)

Transportation

Airline

0.0%

20.6%

-27

-9

ZIGO

12/09/05

16.6%

Zygo Corporation

Technology

Semiconductors

0.0%

13.4%

-11

-8

WSO

11/25/05

15.9%

Watsco, Incorporated

Capital Goods

Misc. Capital Goods

-0.8%

7.6%

-13

-7

HCC

10/21/05

20.9%

HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc.

Financial

Insurance (Property & Casualty)

0.0%

3.5%

-45

-4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

      The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term.  Two requirements were added.  One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities.  The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.

 

 

Table 3G

Warren Buffett Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

MDC

01/20/06

-7.0%

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-7.0%

-7.2%

-79

-95

SPF

02/03/06

-6.0%

Standard Pacific Corp.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-6.0%

-15.4%

-89

-95

APA

02/03/06

-5.6%

Apache Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-6.5%

-2.9%

-77

-81

MTH

01/27/06

-4.3%

Meritage Homes Corporation

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-4.3%

-9.1%

-70

-77

FNF

10/21/05

1.5%

Fidelity National Financial

Financial

Insurance (Property & Casualty)

-6.1%

-1.5%

-75

-75

SCHN

02/10/06

0.0%

Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc.

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

0.0%

0.6%

-71

-73

HDI

10/14/05

5.2%

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Recreational Products

-7.2%

-2.1%

-69

-66

DSPG

02/07/05

7.4%

DSP Group, Inc.

Technology

Communications Equipment

-10.7%

-0.4%

-58

-61

ABFS

04/29/05

37.3%

Arkansas Best Corporation

Transportation

Trucking

-4.9%

-4.5%

-84

-60

LNCR

12/27/04

-1.2%

Lincare Holdings Inc.

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-9.5%

-3.1%

-71

-57

NKE

09/23/05

3.9%

NIKE, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Footwear

-7.6%

-2.0%

-56

-49

RI

09/02/05

28.5%

Ruby Tuesday, Inc.

Services

Restaurants

-4.3%

5.0%

-46

-42

NUE

04/15/05

64.8%

Nucor Corporation

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-8.4%

15.8%

-42

-38

STLD

12/16/05

26.5%

Steel Dynamics, Inc.

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-9.1%

19.0%

-42

-37

PCU

02/10/06

0.0%

Southern Copper Corporation (USA)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

0.0%

17.0%

-20

-34

RS

04/15/05

102.4%

Reliance Steel & Aluminum

Basic Materials

Misc. Fabricated Products

-6.4%

19.9%

-39

-32

ASH

10/28/05

20.6%

Ashland Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-2.5%

-0.2%

-38

-26

CCRT

12/30/05

5.6%

CompuCredit Corporation

Financial

Consumer Financial Services

-1.5%

-0.5%

-31

-23

BTI

12/30/05

1.9%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-0.9%

2.5%

-9

-23

THO

04/15/05

60.5%

Thor Industries, Inc.

Capital Goods

Mobile Homes & RVs

-1.1%

2.1%

-20

-21

RCII

10/21/05

42.5%

Rent-A-Center, Inc

Services

Rental & Leasing

-3.3%

13.5%

-21

-21

AH

02/03/06

-2.1%

Armor Holdings, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-2.1%

10.1%

-20

-16

PSUN

12/09/05

-0.2%

Pacific Sunwear of CA

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-1.7%

5.4%

-15

-15

ACS

04/29/05

31.1%

Affiliated Computer Services, Inc.

Technology

Computer Services

-1.2%

3.6%

-13

-12

 

 

 

      Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H.  A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less. 

 

 

Table 3H

Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

OKE

11/11/05

-1.2%

ONEOK, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-9.4%

-6.7%

-91

-95

WPS

02/07/05

2.1%

WPS Resources Corp

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-11.6%

-7.1%

-91

-91

PGN

01/10/05

-2.6%

Progress Energy, Inc.

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-6.2%

0.0%

-76

-81

PNW

01/10/05

-3.1%

Pinnacle West Capital

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-10.0%

0.1%

-76

-75

WGL

12/23/05

-0.9%

WGL Holdings, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-3.2%

-1.2%

-63

-73

ATO

04/01/05

-2.4%

Atmos Energy Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-11.7%

-1.2%

-57

-71

CPK

05/06/05

18.6%

Chesapeake Utilities

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-12.4%

-2.7%

-57

-69

ATG

10/21/05

7.2%

AGL Resources Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-2.4%

-0.6%

-39

-61

UGI

12/30/05

5.7%

UGI Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-2.9%

-2.2%

-45

-48

SRE

01/10/05

29.7%

Sempra Energy

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-2.8%

-0.7%

-47

-46

KEP

01/10/05

71.5%

Korea Electric Power Corporation (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-6.1%

0.7%

-40

-41

UU

06/10/05

1.0%

United Utilities PLC (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-1.3%

3.0%

-36

-20

 

 

 

      Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I. 

 

Table 3I

John Templeton Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

WSM

09/02/05

1.2%

Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-14.8%

-8.3%

-88

-96

DHI

02/03/06

-7.2%

D.R. Horton Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-7.2%

-18.2%

-88

-96

MDC

12/30/05

-2.4%

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-9.5%

-7.2%

-79

-95

MIK

12/30/05

-8.8%

Michaels Stores, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-8.8%

-4.1%

-87

-89

CHD

11/18/05

-0.1%

Church & Dwight Co., Inc.

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Personal & Household Products

-9.4%

0.5%

-87

-86

LOW

11/18/05

-5.0%

Lowe's Companies, Inc.

Services

Retail (Home Improvement)

-9.8%

-5.5%

-79

-77

EWBC

12/30/05

-2.2%

East West Bancorp, Inc.

Financial

Regional Banks

-5.1%

-4.2%

-86

-76

AMSG

10/14/05

-7.2%

AmSurg Corp.

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-12.3%

-4.9%

-78

-74

CAKE

10/21/05

6.1%

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

Services

Restaurants

-5.4%

-0.1%

-63

-69

GISX

12/30/05

1.6%

Global Imaging Systems, Inc.

Technology

Office Equipment

-4.3%

-3.4%

-67

-60

UNH

12/30/05

-5.7%

UnitedHealth Group Inc.

Financial

Insurance (Accident & Health)

-6.8%

-3.8%

-63

-56

CPS

05/27/05

10.6%

ChoicePoint Inc.

Services

Business Services

-4.3%

-2.3%

-47

-43

HHS

10/28/05

13.5%

Harte-Hanks, Inc.

Services

Printing & Publishing

-3.6%

9.4%

-39

-39

PCU

02/10/06

0.0%

Southern Copper Corporation (USA)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

0.0%

17.0%

-20

-34

DGX

08/19/05

3.6%

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-1.4%

2.0%

-12

-14

ORLY

01/20/06

6.2%

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

0.0%

4.3%

-16

-4

SFG

05/27/05

38.8%

StanCorp Financial Group, Inc.

Financial

Insurance (Life)

-1.7%

4.3%

-17

-3

EDMC

12/16/05

4.8%

Education Management Corp

Services

Schools

0.0%

8.1%

-7

-2

JBHT

02/03/06

5.8%

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

0.0%

7.0%

-22

-1

SNV

05/27/05

-4.6%

Synovus Financial Corp.

Financial

Regional Banks

-6.8%

4.1%

-47

-1

 

 

 

 

      Optionable stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J. 

 

 

 

 

Table 3J

Martin Zweig Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

BEN

10/28/05

9.3%

Franklin Resources, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-6.2%

-3.5%

-89

-84

APA

12/23/05

-1.5%

Apache Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-8.3%

-2.9%

-77

-81

BR

12/02/05

17.9%

Burlington Resources Inc.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-4.4%

-0.8%

-71

-78

MOT

01/20/06

-3.9%

Motorola, Inc.

Technology

Communications Equipment

-5.9%

-10.1%

-72

-72

CRDN

08/19/05

70.0%

Ceradyne, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-11.6%

4.0%

-38

-50

MDU

01/27/06

0.9%

MDU Resources Group, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-3.2%

1.9%

-42

-44

CAE

06/10/05

19.5%

Cascade Corporation

Capital