Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter

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Issue No. 73   April 10, 2006                         Prescott, Arizona                       Systems@WiserTrader.com

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1.0   Trading

 

      The S&P 500 clings to the upper edge of its trading range.

 

1.1 Wall of Worry

 

        The chart in Figure 1 illustrates how the market continues to climb a wall of worry.  The S&P is about 4% above its 200-day SMA.

 

FIGURE 1

 

 

© 2006 WiserTrader.com, LLC.  Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed brokers nor licensed advisors.  Trades discussed represent recommendations made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio.  The newsletter and web site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.  While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be made in transcription.  Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser.  WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation with trading system companies. 

     

 

1.2 Filter Studies

 

      Continuing with filter performance studies, the latest 1 year period is shown at the bottom of Table 1.  Details of the filters can be found on the web site.  Currently we are tracking filter performance with the S&P 500 Index 30-day SMA (simple moving average) relative to its 200-day SMA 1 month prior to the dates listed. 

 

 

Table 1

1 Year Filter Performance Using No Trailing Stop

Year Ending

Prior Year S&P 500

Month Ago S&P 500

SMA 30 vs SMA 200

Growth $15-$40 Filter

Growth >$40 Filter

Absolute Value Filter

Relative Value Filter

9/02/05

9.4%

+2.8%

60.1%

40.7%

19.3%

50%

9/30/05

8.6%

+1.8%

25.4%

61.4%

12.3%

24.1

11/04/05

8.0%

-0.1%

8.2%

14.8%

4.4%

-0.6%

12/02/05

6.2%

+1.9%

24.6%

9.6%

17.0%

34.7%

01/06/06

8.2%

+4.1%

39.8%

50.3%

27.8%

28.3%

02/03/06

6.1%

+4.2%

34.8%

60.7%

11.5%

34.3%

03/03/06

5.7%

+3.5%

32.7%

26.4%

11.0%

29.7%

04/07/06

9.5%

+3.3%

25.2%

61.2%

16.1%

18.4%

 

 

      The data continues to confirm that stocks selected by either filter do best when the S&P 500 remains several percent above its 200-day SMA for the most recent month.  The performance shown is for cases where no trailing stops were used.

 

 

1.3 Trailing Stop Settings

 

     Table 2 shows how typical profits change as the trailing stop is widened from -10% to -100%, essentially no stop setting at all.  One factor in such performance is that the S&P 500 has been in a bull market over the past year, all be it with a saw tooth rising wedge pattern.  Another factor is the quality of the filters themselves. 

 

      In some cases, an advantage is seen in using a trailing stop for the most recent 1-year period.  The arrow in Figure 1 shows the approximate date that stocks were selected, just before a steep downturn in April 2005.  A tight trailing stop at that point would have been beneficial.  In most cases, stocks recovered from the initial down turn and a wider trailing stop resulted in better performance.  Shaded areas of the table show where no stop was triggered.

 

      In some cases, a fixed nominal trailing stop setting X% can be improved upon by applying a trailing stop to each individual stock based on its highest percentage gain.  The variable value applied to stocks individually is,

 

        Variable trailing stop percentage = Highest_%Gain / 3 - X%        

 

       This effectively tightens the trailing stop as the stock price rises in order to preserve gains.  The variable trailing stop percentage should not be allowed to expand wider than X or be allowed to narrow to more than -10%.  A variable trailing stop was, in many cases, superior to a fixed trailing stop over the past year.  The improvement is more likely when the trailing stop setting is narrower than -35% in an up trending market.  Results depend on market behavior.

 

Table 2

1-Year %Gains with Variable and Fixed Trailing Stop Settings

 

Absolute Value

Relative Value

Growth $15 to $40

Growth > $40

“X“ Nominal Stop Setting (%)

Variable Trailing Stop

Fixed Trailing Stop

Variable Trailing Stop

Fixed Trailing Stop

Variable Trailing Stop

Fixed Trailing Stop

Variable Trailing Stop

Fixed Trailing Stop

-10

18.8%

18.8%

18.9%

18.9%

-0.2%

-0.2%

54.3%

54.3%

-15

17.2%

17.2%

34.1%

34.1%

19.9%

19.9%

56.5%

56.5%

-20

17.0%

15.8%

27.8%

27.1%

16.6%

17.6%

60.8%

60.8%

-25

16.4%

16.4%

27.8%

27.8%

13.3%

10.8%

60.8%

60.8%

-30

16.4%

16.4%

27.8%

27.8%

13.5%

8.4%

61.2%

61.2%

-35

16.1%

16.1%

22.8%

26.0%

16.2%

16.2%

61.2%

61.2%

-40

16.1%

16.1%

22.8%

22.8%

16.2%

16.2%

61.2%

61.2%

-50

16.1%

16.1%

18.4%

18.4%

25.2%

16.2%

61.2%

61.2%

-60

16.1%

16.1%

18.4%

18.4%

25.2%

16.2%

61.2%

61.2%

-70

16.1%

16.1%

18.4%

18.4%

25.2%

25.2%

61.2%

61.2%

-80

16.1%

16.1%

18.4%

18.4%

25.2%

25.2%

61.2%

61.2%

-90

16.1%

16.1%

18.4%

18.4%

25.2%

25.2%

62.4%

61.2%

-100

16.1%

16.1%

18.4%

18.4%

25.2%

25.2%

62.4%

61.2%

 

 

      Applying trailing stops to individual stocks may seem like many details to keep track of, but not really.  The easiest way is to put the data and formulas in an Excel spreadsheet and use XLQ which can automatically retrieve stock prices from Yahoo and MSN. 

 

 

 

2.0 Market Analysis

 

      This week bond yields rose more sharply and interest rate sensitive stocks continued to consolidate.  The major averages pulled back in unison.  As earnings season begins this week, concern is being placed on inflation and interest rates due to high energy and commodity prices with lower unemployment.

 

      Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ.  Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory.  Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500.  Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending. 

 

 

Table 2A

Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s

 

1 month

1 wk ago

2 wks ago

3 wks ago

4 wks ago

Dow Jones Industrial Index

0.4%

0.1%

-1.5%

0.0%

1.8%

NASDAQ Composite Index

3.4%

0.0%

1.2%

0.3%

2.0%

NYSE Composite Index

1.1%

0.0%

-0.6%

-0.3%

2.0%

S & P 500 Index

2.4%

0.5%

-0.2%

-0.2%

2.4%

Russell 2000 Index

4.1%

-1.2%

1.5%

1.0%

2.7%

HGX, Phil. Housing Index

7.6%

2.3%

-1.7%

-0.3%

7.4%

IYR, Real Estate

-1.3%

-3.6%

1.1%

-3.0%

4.4%

GLD, GOLD

8.8%

0.8%

4.3%

1.1%

2.4%

RKH, Banking

0.2%

0.1%

-1.4%

-0.5%

2.0%

IYT, Transportation

5.3%

2.4%

1.0%

-0.7%

2.4%

SMH, Semiconductors

2.7%

1.6%

0.3%

1.8%

-1.1%

BBH, Biotechnology

-3.0%

-4.0%

-0.3%

-2.4%

3.8%

OIH, Oil

12.2%

2.7%

2.9%

1.0%

5.1%

XLE, Energy

7.7%

1.7%

1.0%

0.4%

4.4%

XLU, Utilities

-3.3%

-0.5%

-2.1%

-2.1%

1.4%

XLB, Materials

4.8%

1.4%

0.9%

-0.4%

2.8%

XLI, Industrial

3.3%

0.4%

0.4%

-0.3%

2.9%

XLK, Technology

2.5%

0.5%

0.2%

-0.1%

1.8%

XLV, Healthcare

-3.5%

-2.2%

-2.1%

-0.1%

0.9%

XLF, Financials

-0.2%

0.1%

-1.0%

-0.7%

1.4%

XLP, Consumer Staples

-3.1%

-0.8%

-1.6%

0.1%

-0.8%

XLY, Consumer Discretionary

1.5%

0.6%

-0.4%

-0.7%

2.0%

 

 

 

 

      The VIX and VXN volatility indexes are listed in Table 2B.

 

 

Table 2B

Volatility

Indicator

Current

Last Week

2 Weeks Ago

Complacent

Cautious

VIX **

12.3

11.4

11.2

< 20

> 50

VXN ***

15.9

16.3

15.9

< 30

> 70

**   Above 20 day SMA = Short-term sell signal.

*** At 20 day SMA = Short-term neutral signal.

 

 

 

 

      Figure 4 compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s.

 

 

 

FIGURE 4

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2C

Market Summary


 
 

 Major Indices 
 For the Past Week:
 Dow Jones     +0.1%
 NASDAQ         0.0%
 S&P500 Index   0.0%
 Russell 2000  -1.2%
 NYSE          +0.5%
 
 30 Year Bond 5.038%
 10 Year Note 4.963%
 
 Leading Industries
 For the Past Week:
 Aluminum 
 Trucking 
 Industrial Metals 
 Nonferrous Metals 
 Home Construction 
 Coal 
 Steel 
 Transportation Services 
 Delivery Services 
 Heavy Construction                     
 
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Week:
 Tires 
 Biotechnology 
 Water 
 Distillers & Vintners 
 Real Estate Investment Trusts 
 Automobiles 
 Health Care Providers 
 Travel & Tourism 
 Health Care Equipment & Serv 
 Health Care             
          
 Leading Industries
 For the Past Month:
 Platinum & Precious Metals 
 General Mining 
 Nonferrous Metals 
 Steel 
 Industrial Metals 
 Basic Resources 
 Mining 
 Coal 
 Aluminum 
 Oil Equipment & Services          
 
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Month:
 Water 
 Distillers & Vintners 
 Nondurable Household Products 
 Biotechnology 
 Consumer Finance 
 Health Care Providers 
 Pharmaceuticals & Biotech 
 Tobacco 
 Pharmaceuticals 
 Health Care                         
 
 Crude Oil $67.43
 
 Gold for the past 30 days:
 USD    +8.33%
 CAD    +7.57%
 CHF    +7.62%
 GBP    +7.14%
 EUR    +7.21%
 JPY    +8.74%

 
 
 
 

3.0 Procedure

 

      The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration.  They are not necessarily trades.  Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders.  The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.

 

      Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days.  Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day.  Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.

 

      One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward.  They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline.  The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence. 

 

      A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R.  The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.

 

      The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list.  The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months.  The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow.  Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months.  More information on filters is available on the web site.

 

      A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A. 

 

 

Table 3A

Stock Filter Summary

Filter

Avg. % Change Since Listed

Avg. % Change Friday

1 Month

1 Week Ago

2 weeks Ago

3 Weeks Ago

4 Weeks Ago

Net Insider Buying

7.4%

-0.4%

11.4%

-0.9%

0.6%

3.6%

7.2%

Cash Rich Companies

-1.1%

0.7%

-0.7%

-1.2%

-0.4%

0.0%

0.9%

Price to Free Cash Flow

10.3%

2.3%

15.4%

-4.5%

10.5%

-1.5%

11.4%

Growth Momentum Stocks

16.6%

-1.5%

9.1%

0.5%

2.1%

0.8%

5.5%

Lynch Stocks

25.9%

-1.1%

3.0%

0.7%

1.5%

-0.8%

1.6%

Buffett Stocks

27.0%

-1.1%

5.6%

1.1%

1.9%

0.6%

1.9%

Graham Stocks

13.5%

-1.0%

1.9%

0.3%

-0.1%

-0.5%

2.1%

Templeton Stocks

6.8%

-0.3%

3.2%

0.3%

-0.1%

0.6%

2.4%

 Zweig Stocks

9.9%

-0.9%

5.5%

0.7%

0.7%

1.0%

3.0%

Average Long Stocks

12.9%

-0.4%

6.0%

-0.3%

1.8%

0.4%

4.0%

 

 

Key

Passed Recent Filter

Price declined by half of stop loss setting

Oversold  based on  Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

Overbought based on Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

 

 

      Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

Table 3B

Net Insider Buying Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

NXTM

03/17/06

0.0%

NxStage Medical, Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-12.3%

-14.0%

-99

-99

RGN

03/17/06

0.0%

RegeneRx Biopharmaceut.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-5.4%

-6.3%

-73

-73

VSTA

10/21/05

7.3%

VistaCare, Inc.

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-13.0%

-2.9%

-70

-70

MMLP

11/25/05

0.0%

Martin Midstream Partners L.P.

Transportation

Water Transportation

-3.3%

5.7%

-45

-45

FVRL

03/17/06

0.0%

Favrille, Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-11.1%

11.2%

-45

-45

CLRT

03/24/06

0.9%

Clarient, Inc.

Technology

Scientific & Technical Instruments

-0.9%

0.0%

-50

-39

TXCC

03/10/06

50.3%

TranSwitch Corporation

Technology

Semiconductors

-9.5%

50.3%

-24

-24

LXU

12/23/05

15.9%

LSB Industries, Inc.

Basic Materials

Chemical Manufacturing

-1.6%

17.4%

-10

-10

RGNC

04/07/06

0.0%

Regency Energy Partners LP

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

0.0%

10.9%

-6

-6

NEU

03/31/06

0.0%

NewMarket Corporation

Basic Materials

Chemical Manufacturing

0.0%

41.3%

0

0

 

 

      Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

 

Table 3C

Capital Rich Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

CLCT

03/10/06

-3.4%

Collectors Universe, Inc.

Services

Business Services

-3.5%

-3.4%

-93

-93

WSC

03/11/06

0.1%

Wesco Financial Corporation

Conglomerates

Conglomerates

-0.2%

0.1%

-72

-67

SCIX

04/07/06

0.0%

Scailex Corp., Ltd. (USA)

Technology

Computer Networks

0.0%

1.4%

-45

-48

 

 

 

      Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5.  Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.

 

 

 

Table 3D

Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

LNX

03/31/06

-7.6%

Lenox Group Inc.

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Personal & Household Products

-7.6%

-7.6%

-96

-97

MOVI

03/24/06

20.8%

Movie Gallery, Inc.

Services

Recreational Activities

-5.6%

-5.6%

-48

-35

KWD

03/04/06

17.6%

Kellwood Company

Consumer Cyclical

Apparel/Accessories

-1.6%

12.5%

-3

-12

 

 

 

 

      For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

 

 

Table 3E

Peter Lynch Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

BTI

08/12/05

20.4%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-5.7%

-2.7%

-79

-79

SKM

02/07/05

17.4%

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

-3.6%

1.6%

-54

-52

KOF

04/29/05

43.1%

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Beverages (Non-Alcoholic)

-3.0%

7.4%

-36

-36

PKX

02/17/06

13.5%

POSCO (ADR)

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-3.5%

-1.0%

-34

-34

TM

12/13/04

52.1%

Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR)

Consumer Cyclical

Auto & Truck Manufacturers

-0.7%

7.0%

-13

-13

AZN

02/03/06

9.1%

AstraZeneca PLC (ADR)

Health Care

Major Drugs

-1.2%

2.7%

-11

-11

 

 

 

 

      For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

 

Table 3F

Growth Momentum Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

ENDP

02/17/06

3.8%

Endo Pharmaceuticals

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-7.5%

-5.7%

-97

-97

WSO

11/25/05

8.1%

Watsco, Incorporated

Capital Goods

Misc. Capital Goods

-8.8%

-3.4%

-92

-92

LM

08/12/05

14.6%

Legg Mason, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-8.3%

-0.1%

-82

-82

BEN

11/04/05

4.2%

Franklin Resources, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-8.3%

-2.3%

-81

-81

SYT

04/08/05

30.8%

Syngenta AG (ADR)

Basic Materials

Chemical Manufacturing

-5.0%

0.1%

-71

-71

HCC

10/21/05

22.7%

HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc.

Financial

Insurance (Property & Casualty)

-4.1%

2.1%

-47

-47

UIC

03/17/06

10.5%

United Industrial Corp.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-8.5%

18.0%

-37

-37

APC

02/10/06

0.0%

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-2.7%

7.5%

-30

-30

CHB

02/17/06

0.2%

Champion Enterprises, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-4.3%

6.2%

-28

-25

AHC

02/03/06

0.0%

Amerada Hess Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas - Integrated

-2.4%

5.2%

-24

-24

CHE

05/06/05

50.5%

Chemed Corporation

Services

Business Services

-2.0%

6.6%

-22

-22

SM

03/17/06

2.1%

St. Mary Land & Exploration Co.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-1.8%

9.2%

-21

-21

RIO

03/31/06

0.4%

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (ADR)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-2.2%

12.6%

-19

-19

PCU

12/02/05

34.5%

Southern Copper Corporation (USA)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-2.3%

13.0%

-19

-19

GRMN

03/03/06

11.2%

Garmin Ltd.

Technology

Communications Equipment

-2.2%

10.0%

-15

-16

BHP

09/09/05

34.5%

BHP Billiton Limited (ADR)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-2.4%

21.8%

-15

-15

OVTI

03/17/06

13.8%

OmniVision Technologies

Technology

Semiconductors

-2.0%

22.6%

-12

-12

ET

10/21/05

50.7%

E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corporation

Financial

Investment Services

-1.1%

10.7%

-12

-12

WCC

02/10/06

27.5%

WESCO International, Inc.

Technology

Electronic Instruments & Controls

-1.4%

21.5%

-11

-11

DNR

03/03/06

12.6%

Denbury Resources Inc.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-0.9%

21.6%

-8

-8

 

 

 

      The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term.  Two requirements were added.  One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities.  The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.

 

 

Table 3G

Warren Buffett Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

NKE

09/23/05

2.9%

NIKE, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Footwear

-8.5%

-1.6%

-98

-98

ACS

04/29/05

25.3%

Affiliated Computer Services, Inc.

Technology

Computer Services

-5.8%

-5.8%

-81

-81

BTI

12/30/05

7.7%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-5.7%

-2.7%

-79

-79

ANF

03/03/06

-5.5%

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-5.5%

-1.2%

-87

-75

TBL

02/17/06

-3.7%

The Timberland Company

Consumer Cyclical

Footwear

-3.9%

-1.8%

-58

-58

FNF

10/21/05

-1.5%

Fidelity National Financial

Financial

Insurance (Property & Casualty)

-8.9%

0.9%

-67

-58

KSWS

10/14/05

2.2%

K-Swiss Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Footwear

-13.8%

1.2%

-54

-54

JBHT

03/31/06

5.2%

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

-0.8%

-5.1%

-53

-53

ABFS

04/29/05

29.7%

Arkansas Best Corporation

Transportation

Trucking

-10.2%

-2.6%

-49

-48

CCRT

12/30/05

-3.7%

CompuCredit Corporation

Financial

Consumer Financial Services

-11.6%

-3.7%

-48

-48

AEOS

03/10/06

1.9%

American Eagle Outfitters

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-2.3%

1.9%

-33

-39

ASH

10/28/05

28.8%

Ashland Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-3.1%

6.3%

-36

-36

OXY

03/03/06

0.1%

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-2.4%

5.6%

-32

-32

DSPG

02/07/05

12.6%

DSP Group, Inc.

Technology

Communications Equipment

-6.4%

1.8%

-31

-31

RI

09/02/05

44.7%

Ruby Tuesday, Inc.

Services

Restaurants

-2.6%

9.0%

-31

-31

RS

04/15/05

140.9%

Reliance Steel & Aluminum

Basic Materials

Misc. Fabricated Products

-3.6%

10.1%

-29

-29

CECO

02/17/06

18.1%

Career Education Corp.

Services

Schools

-4.1%

6.0%

-26

-27

UNT

03/03/06

-0.1%

Unit Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-2.0%

0.0%

-26

-26

RCII

10/21/05

61.1%

Rent-A-Center, Inc

Services

Rental & Leasing

-1.2%

6.1%

-24

-24

AH

02/03/06

20.6%

Armor Holdings, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-1.6%

7.0%

-20

-20

PCU

02/10/06

8.7%

Southern Copper Corporation (USA)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-2.3%

13.0%

-19

-19

STLD

12/16/05

65.3%

Steel Dynamics, Inc.

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-3.2%

16.7%

-18

-18

THO

04/15/05

106.7%

Thor Industries, Inc.

Capital Goods

Mobile Homes & RVs

-0.5%

5.7%

-13

-15

HDI

10/14/05

6.6%

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Recreational Products

-6.0%

3.3%

-15

-15

NUE

04/15/05

122.1%

Nucor Corporation

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-2.3%

13.9%

-14

-14

SCHN

02/10/06

36.0%

Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc.

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-2.7%

29.2%

-13

-13

TOL

02/17/06

19.0%

Toll Brothers, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-1.2%

2.3%

-12

-12

MDC

01/20/06

4.3%

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-0.4%

14.0%

-7

-7

 

 

 

      Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H.  A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less. 

 

 

 

Table 3H

Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List

 

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

PGN

01/10/05

-2.9%

Progress Energy, Inc.

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-6.4%

-2.1%

-93

-93

WGL

12/23/05

-2.8%

WGL Holdings, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-5.8%

-1.2%

-91

-90

SRE

01/10/05

26.9%

Sempra Energy

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-5.8%

-1.4%

-80

-80

UGI

12/30/05

3.2%

UGI Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-5.9%

-1.4%

-82

-79

EON

03/10/06

-0.7%

E.ON AG (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-5.2%

-0.7%

-76

-76

ATG

10/21/05

6.6%

AGL Resources Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-3.0%

0.0%

-67

-67

ATO

04/01/05

-2.3%

Atmos Energy Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-11.6%

-0.2%

-67

-67

CPK

05/06/05

17.5%

Chesapeake Utilities

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-13.1%

1.1%

-52

-52

UU

06/10/05

1.2%

United Utilities PLC (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-1.9%

1.7%

-36

-36

VVC

03/03/06

4.2%

Vectren Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-1.7%

5.0%

-24

-24

KEP

01/10/05

87.7%

Korea Electric Power Corporation (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

0.0%

8.3%

-13

-13

OKE

11/11/05

23.2%

ONEOK, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-1.6%

13.3%

-12

-12

 

 

 

 

 

      Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I. 

 

 

Table 3I

John Templeton Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

HHS

10/28/05

2.6%

Harte-Hanks, Inc.

Services

Printing & Publishing

-12.9%

-7.8%

-98

-98

CAKE

10/21/05

1.6%

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

Services

Restaurants

-9.4%

-2.7%

-94

-94

DGX

08/19/05

0.5%

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-6.5%

-4.8%

-94

-94

JNJ

02/17/06

-2.1%

Johnson & Johnson

Health Care

Major Drugs

-5.2%

-2.3%

-90

-90

SNV

05/27/05

-7.3%

Synovus Financial Corp.

Financial

Regional Banks

-9.4%

-0.4%

-84

-81

CPS

05/27/05

9.5%

ChoicePoint Inc.

Services

Business Services

-5.2%

-2.1%

-72

-72

LOW

11/18/05

-0.8%

Lowe's Companies, Inc.

Services

Retail (Home Improvement)

-5.8%

0.0%

-69

-69

EWBC

12/30/05

2.0%

East West Bancorp, Inc.

Financial

Regional Banks

-5.8%

0.5%

-68

-68

CHD

11/18/05

6.7%

Church & Dwight Co., Inc.

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Personal & Household Products

-5.1%

-2.0%

-63

-63

GTRC

03/03/06

-2.4%

Guitar Center, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-2.4%

0.4%

-58

-55

ORLY

01/20/06

16.3%

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-2.7%

1.4%

-64

-51

GISX