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Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter ______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 73 April 17, 2006 Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com ______________________________________________________________________________
1.0 Trading
As earnings season moves into high gear, we take a snapshot of market performance.
1.1 Market Caution
The chart in Figure 1 illustrates how the market has recently become more cautious. The S&P is about 3.7% above its 200-day SMA.
FIGURE 1
1.2 Industry Tracking
Tracking industry performance can be tricky if one is trying to monitor the complete market. Standard and Poor provides reports on 51 industries at its website. The Dow Jones industry listing at BigCharts.com divides the market into 10 sectors and 95 distinct industries. Investors Business Daily tracks 192 industries. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) classifies companies into 12 sectors and 102 industries. Yahoo.com tracks 9 sectors containing 212 industries. Other systems coming into wide use have chosen to change the meaning of the terms sectors and industries. Companies belong to an industry in one system may not belong to an industry having a similar name in another system. When the press and media report industry performance, it is not usually stated which system is being used.
With all the different systems of industry classification, one needs a cross reference from one to another. Without such a cross reference, it can be difficult to feel confident that one has a clear picture. Unfortunately, no such cross reference has been found.
This newsletter uses two systems. The leading and lagging industry lists in Section 2 use the Dow Jones system of 10 sectors and 95 industries. The Dow Jones industry performance list is updated daily at BigCharts.com. The watchlists in Section 3 use the AAII system of 12 sectors and 102 industries. AAII does not provide relative industry performance.
A third system described today is the Yahoo system of 9 sectors and 212 industries. Yahoo updates industry performance on an ongoing basis, hence its unique value. Industry performance can be automatically retrieved into Microsoft Excel with a 20-minute delay using XLQ. This allows one to sort the best and worst performing industries at any time of the day according to short and long-term criteria.
Table 1 is an example of a small portion of an Excel spreadsheet where the top 10 industries are sorted according to the number of up days out of the last 17 days. Interestingly, the waste management industry has been the must consistent performer but the copper industry has had a much higher percentage gain over the past 15 trading days.
Table 2 shows a small portion of the bottom portion of the same Excel spreadsheet where the top 10 industries are sorted according to the number of up days out of the last 17 days. Confectioners have been the least consistent performer with the highest percentage loss over the past 15 trading days. This is no doubt due to the rising price of sugar needed to make ethanol that is in short supply.
The use of 17 for the number of days is incidental to the number of trading days the spreadsheet has been in use. Macros were added to update the performance history at the end of each trading day and sort the entire list according to any of the columns shown with a single control key entry. Once a history of about 20 days (4 weeks) has been built up, the spreadsheet will become available to any Excel user who has downloaded XLQ-Plus, which is required to make it work. The spreadsheet does not require the AAII Stock Investor Pro software. Let me know if you want a free copy. XLQ-Plus can be evaluated free for 45 days. If you are already an Excel user, I strongly recommend evaluating its many automated data retrieval features.
Table 1 – Ten Leading Industries Sorted by Number of Up days out of 17
Table 2 – Ten Lagging Industries Sorted by Number of Up days out of 17
2.0 Market Analysis
This week bond yields continued to rise sharply and interest rate sensitive stocks continued to consolidate. As earnings season picks up, the market is cautious. Ten-year treasury yields are at 5% and oil is above $70 a barrel.
Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
The VIX and VXN volatility indexes are listed in Table 2B.
Table 2B Volatility
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Table 2C
Market Summary
Industries are listed according to the Dow Jones Classification System
Major Indices
For the Past Week:
Dow Jones +0.2%
NASDAQ -0.6%
S&P500 Index -0.5%
Russell 2000 -0.7%
NYSE -0.5%
30 Year Bond 5.107%
10 Year Note 5.036%
Leading Industries
For the Past Week:
Aluminum
Aerospace & Defense
Consumer Electronics
Commercial Vehicles & Trucks
Industrial Engineering
Waste & Disposal Services
Media Agencies
Broadcasting & Entertainment
Regional Airlines
Gaming Activities
Lagging Industries
For the Past Week:
Water
Distillers & Vintners
Home Construction
Heavy Construction
Tires
Recreational Products
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Platinum & Precious Metals
Industrial Suppliers
Computer Hardware
Leading Industries
For the Past Month:
Platinum & Precious Metals
General Mining
Nonferrous Metals
Industrial Metals
Aluminum
Steel
Mining
Basic Resources
Internet
Coal
Lagging Industries
For the Past Month:
Distillers & Vintners
Full Line Insurance
Tobacco
Water
Nondurable Household Products
Electricity
Recreational Services
Biotechnology
Nonlife Insurance
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Crude Oil $71.00
Gold for the past 30 days:
USD +8.39%
CAD +7.93%
CHF +8.34%
GBP +8.07%
EUR +7.84%
JPY +9.58%
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders. The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.
Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.
One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence.
A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R. The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.
The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months. More information on filters is available on the web site.
A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A.
Table 3A Stock Filter Summary
Key
Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3B Net Insider Buying Check List
Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C Capital Rich Companies Check List
Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5. Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.
Table 3D Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List
For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E Peter Lynch Value Watch List
For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3F Growth Momentum Watch List
The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term. Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G Warren Buffett Value Watch List
Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H. A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3H Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I John Templeton Watch List
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