Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter

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Issue No. 74   April 24, 2006                         Prescott, Arizona                       Systems@WiserTrader.com

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1.0   Trading

 

      The frequency of day-to-day changes in market direction is one measure of choppiness.  By this measure, the market is naturally choppy about 56% of the time.

 

1.1 Market Character

 

      Directional changes in the William %R are consistent with directional changes in the price of a stock or index.  Until recently, I had defined choppiness based on the number of times the NASDAQ Williams %R crossed the neutral line (-50) within a 4-week period.  Lately I have been looking at a broader measure of market character based on the average Williams %R for the NASDAQ, DOW, S&P 500, NYSE Composite and Russell 2000.  This 5-index Williams %R is derived by adding the Williams %R for all five indices and dividing by five.  It is believed that the average of the momentum indicators for all five indices better reflects the market compared to the indicator for a single index.  The spread or “range” for the five individual values is also believed to play an important role.  When choppiness is defined in terms of the tendency for this 5-index Williams %R to change direction on consecutive days, intuition says that a wider range of values for these five indicators should accompany a more choppy market.  While the range is important for the size of a move, it appears to be inversely proportional to the likelihood of a change in direction. 

 

      Over the period from January 2004 to April 14, 2006, the 5-index Williams %R changed direction from day-to-day about 55.8% of the time.  The market, defined in this case by the five indices, moved in the same direction for two or more days in a row only 44.5% of the time.  The range of the 5 index values on any given day varied over that same period from 1 to 81 with an arithmetic average value of 25.  Table 1 shows the percentage of day-to-day changes in direction of the 5-index Williams %R along with the previous day’s range.  The highest percentage of day-to-day changes in direction was 17% when the previous day’s range was between 10 and 15 units.  Half the changes in direction occurred on either side of a range of 20 units. 

 

 

© 2006 WiserTrader.com, LLC.  Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed brokers nor licensed advisors.  Trades discussed represent recommendations made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio.  The newsletter and web site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.  While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be made in transcription.  Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser.  WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation with trading system companies. 

 

 

      Therefore, a wider range for the five values of the Williams %R on any given day does not correlate well with a tendency for day-to-day reversals.  Rather, it seems, when all five indicators have similar momentum, a reversal on the following day becomes more likely.  This is counter intuitive and is likely to be different for larger, more prolonged changes.  A histogram of the range on the day before a reversal is given in Figure1. 

 

Table 1

Percentage of 5-Index Williams %R Changes in Direction

Based on the Previous Day’s Range

Williams % R Range

% of Changes in Direction

 

Williams % R Range Wider than

% of  Changes in Direction

1 to 5

3.0%

 

5

97.2%

5 to 10

15%

 

10

82.2%

10 to 15

17%

 

15

65.0%

15 to 20

15%

 

20

50.3%

20 to 25

11%

 

25

39.4%

25 to 30

12%

 

30

27.5%

30 to 40

11%

 

40

15.9%

40 to 50

7%

 

50

9.4%

50 to 60

4%

 

60

5.0%

60 to 70

4%

 

70

0.9%

70 to 81

1%

 

80

0.63%

 

 

FIGURE 1

 

    Table 2 provides a summary of the number of consecutive days the 5-index Williams %R moved in the same direction over the January 2004 to April 14, 2006 period.  The 5-index momentum indicator varied from -1 to -99 with an arithmetic average of -43.  We can see from the table that the market moved in the same direction for 2 or more consecutive days about 44.5% of the time. 

 

 

Table 2

Consecutive Days that 5-index Indicator

Moved in the Same Direction

Average Prior Day Range

 Average Prior Day 5-Index Williams %R

No. of

Events

 Percent of All Days

0

24

-43

321

55.8%

2

24

-39

79

13.7%

3

25

-48

39

13.6%

4

29

-50

21

11.0%

5

28

-63

5

3.5%

6

11

-67

2

1.7%

7

28

-27

1

1.0%

 

 

      Table 2 only provides average values for the 5-index indicator and range.  Another picture can be gleaned from the chart in Figure 2 showing a more detailed relationship between the 5-index indicator and range on the day before a change in direction.  Figure 2 illustrates how reversals are more likely when the range is small and the 5-index indicator is near an extreme above -20 or below -80.  This greater likelihood of a reversal at the overbought and oversold extremes should be expected.  The slightly greater tendency for a reversal when the indicator is overbought can be explained by noting that the market historically spends more time in that area, having a long term upward bias.  Between -20 and -80, the likelihood of a reversal is less predictable. 

 

 

FIGURE 2

 

 

      Figure 2 has an interesting symmetry that will be discussed in the future.  Keep in mind here that the discussion is about describing historical day-to-day changes in direction.  We have not addressed prediction or the size of moves.  Those are future studies.  The first step towards a good model is a good description.  Markets are characterized as trending, choppy or moving sideways depending on the period over which they are observed and the technical indicators being used. 

 

     If you have an interest in tracking the 5-index Williams %R and range, the charts in Figures 3 and 4 are one way to go.  These 3-month charts are updated automatically and continuously in an Excel spreadsheet running XLQ-Plus.  This spreadsheet, named Market Momentum, is available for download at http://www.wisertrader.com/excel.php .

 

 

FIGURE 3

 

 

FIGURE 4

 

 

 

 

 

2.0 Market Analysis

 

      This week the market rose despite a rise in the CPI to about 0.7% above this time a year ago and a rise in the price of oil above $75 a barrel.  About one third of S&P 500 companies have reported with 70% being above expectations.  FOMC minutes gave encouraging news that the committee is mindful of over tightening.  Ten-year bond yields remained steady at about 5%. 

 

      Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ.  Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory.  Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500.  Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending. 

 

Table 2A

Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s

 

1 month

1 wk ago

2 wks ago

3 wks ago

4 wks ago

Dow Jones Industrial Index

3.6%

-6.4%

1.0%

7.6%

1.8%

NASDAQ Composite Index

0.1%

-2.6%

2.9%

-2.6%

2.5%

NYSE Composite Index

0.6%

1.9%

0.2%

0.1%

-1.5%

S & P 500 Index

1.3%

0.7%

-0.6%

0.0%

1.2%

Russell 2000 Index

0.6%

1.7%

-0.5%

0.0%

-0.6%

HGX, Phil. Housing Index

2.5%

2.8%

-0.5%

0.5%

-0.2%

IYR, Real Estate

2.4%

2.8%

-0.7%

-1.2%

1.5%

GLD, GOLD

-1.5%

1.7%

-3.6%

2.3%

-1.7%

RKH, Banking

-1.8%

3.5%

-2.7%

-3.6%

1.1%

IYT, Transportation

13.4%

6.2%

1.6%

0.8%

4.3%

SMH, Semiconductors

0.7%

2.0%

0.0%

0.1%

-1.4%

BBH, Biotechnology

3.8%

1.2%

-0.9%

2.4%

1.0%

OIH, Oil

3.3%

1.7%

-0.2%

1.6%

0.3%

XLE, Energy

-5.5%

-2.7%

1.1%

-4.0%

-0.3%

XLU, Utilities

14.0%

7.3%

0.4%

2.7%

2.9%

XLB, Materials

10.9%

7.0%

0.8%

1.7%

1.0%

XLI, Industrial

-0.8%

3.3%

-1.4%

-0.5%

-2.1%

XLK, Technology

7.2%

4.4%

0.4%

1.4%

0.9%

XLV, Healthcare

3.6%

3.0%

-0.3%

0.4%

0.4%

XLF, Financials

-0.1%

-0.2%

-0.7%

0.5%

0.2%

XLP, Consumer Staples

-4.7%

0.5%

-0.8%

-2.2%

-2.1%

XLY, Consumer Discretionary

0.7%

2.0%

-0.3%

0.1%

-1.0%

 

 

 

      The VIX and VXN volatility indexes are listed in Table 2B.

 

 

Table 2B

Volatility

Indicator

Current

Last Week

2 Weeks Ago

Complacent

Cautious

VIX **

11.6

12.4

12.3

< 20

> 50

VXN ***

15.9

16.3

15.9

< 30

> 70

**   Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal.

*** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal.

 

 

 

 

      Figure 5 compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s.

 

 

FIGURE 5

 

 

 

Table 2C

Market Summary

 
Industries are listed according to the Dow Jones Classification System 

 
 

 Major Indices 
 For the Past Week:
 Dow Jones     +1.9%
 NASDAQ        +0.7%
 S&P500 Index  +1.7%
 Russell 2000  +2.8%
 NYSE          +2.8%
 
 30 Year Bond 5.099%
 10 Year Note 5.012%
 
 Leading Industries
 For the Past Week:
 Coal 
 Mining 
 Business Training & Employment 
 Gold Mining 
 Exploration & Production 
 Oil Equipment & Services 
 Oil Equipment, Services & Dis 
 Internet 
 Paper 
 Basic Resources                     
 
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Week:
 Airlines 
 Specialized Consumer Services 
 Mobile Telecommunications 
 Drug Retailers 
 Publishing 
 Biotechnology 
 Food & Drug Retailers 
 Home Improvement Retailers 
 Health Care Providers 
 Food Retailers & Wholesalers              
          
 Leading Industries
 For the Past Month:
 General Mining 
 Coal 
 Mining 
 Aluminum 
 Gold Mining 
 Nonferrous Metals 
 Internet 
 Platinum & Precious Metals 
 Basic Resources 
 Oil Equipment & Services            
 
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Month:
 Airlines 
 Distillers & Vintners 
 Water 
 Health Care Providers 
 Home Improvement Retailers 
 Biotechnology 
 Pharmaceuticals & Biotech 
 Nondurable Household Products 
 Health Care 
 Fixed Line Telecommunications                         
 
 Crude Oil $75.12
 
 Gold for the past 30 days:
 USD    +14.87%
 CAD    +12.12%
 CHF    +12.31%
 GBP    +12.67%
 EUR    +12.49%
 JPY    +15.03%

 
 
 
 

3.0 Procedure

 

      The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration.  They are not necessarily trades.  Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders.  The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.

 

      Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days.  Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day.  Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.

 

      One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward.  They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline.  The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence. 

 

      A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R.  The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.

 

      The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list.  The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months.  The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow.  Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months.  More information on filters is available on the web site.

 

      A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A. 

 

 

Table 3A

Stock Filter Summary

Filter

Avg. % Change Since Listed

Avg. % Change Friday

1 Month

1 Week Ago

2 weeks Ago

3 Weeks Ago

4 Weeks Ago

Net Insider Buying

4.8%

0.3%

1.3%

1.7%

0.3%

-1.2%

0.4%

Cash Rich Companies

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.9%

1.1%

-1.4%

-0.1%

-0.5%

Price to Free Cash Flow

14.6%

2.1%

9.7%

6.3%

-1.8%

-4.5%

10.5%

Growth Momentum Stocks

19.0%

0.4%

7.6%

4.6%

-0.1%

0.7%

2.1%

Lynch Stocks

28.2%

1.7%

4.1%

3.5%

-1.3%

0.0%

1.7%

Buffett Stocks

27.0%

-0.2%

4.2%

2.6%

-1.3%

1.1%

1.7%

Graham Stocks

14.7%

0.5%

1.8%

3.0%

-1.4%

0.5%

-0.4%

Templeton Stocks

5.2%

-0.5%

0.3%

1.8%

-1.6%

0.3%

-0.2%

 Zweig Stocks

9.0%

-0.3%

5.2%

3.4%

-0.2%

0.7%

1.2%

Average Long Stocks

13.6%

0.4%

3.7%

3.1%

-1.0%

-0.3%

1.8%

 

 

Key

Passed Recent Filter

Price declined by half of stop loss setting

Oversold  based on  Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

Overbought based on Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

 

 

      Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

Table 3B

Net Insider Buying Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

RGN

03/17/06

0.0%

RegeneRx Biopharmaceut.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-13.1%

-12.6%

-91

-91

TWI

04/21/06

0.0%

Titan International, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Auto & Truck Parts

0.0%

4.9%

-27

-27

EQS

04/13/06

0.0%

Equus II Incorporated

Financial

Investment Services

-2.4%

2.9%

-39

-47

MMLP

11/25/05

0.0%

Martin Midstream Partners L.P.

Transportation

Water Transportation

-2.2%

0.0%

-40

-40

NXTM

03/17/06

0.0%

NxStage Medical, Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-3.7%

-3.7%

-31

-31

CLRT

03/24/06

3.6%

Clarient, Inc.

Technology

Scientific & Technical Instruments

0.0%

1.8%

-39

-22

LXU

12/23/05

29.9%

LSB Industries, Inc.

Basic Materials

Chemical Manufacturing

0.0%

13.8%

-3

-3

 

 

      Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

 

Table 3C

Capital Rich Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

SCIX

04/07/06

0.3%

Scailex Corp., Ltd. (USA)

Technology

Computer Networks

-0.5%

-1.0%

-56

-58

WSC

03/11/06

-0.8%

Wesco Financial Corporation

Conglomerates

Conglomerates

-1.2%

-0.8%

-50

-41

 

 

      Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5.  Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.

 

 

Table 3D

Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

MOVI

03/24/06

22.9%

Movie Gallery, Inc.

Services

Recreational Activities

-4.0%

9.0%

-47

-40

KWD

03/04/06

17.6%

Kellwood Company

Consumer Cyclical

Apparel/Accessories

-1.7%

5.0%

-20

-17

LNX

03/31/06

3.2%

Lenox Group Inc.

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Personal & Household Products

0.0%

7.5%

-26

-9

 

 

      For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

 

 

Table 3E

Peter Lynch Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

BTI

08/12/05

26.4%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-1.0%

2.4%

-18

-18

CAE

04/21/06

0.0%

Cascade Corporation

Capital Goods

Misc. Capital Goods

0.0%

-19.7%

-79

-79

PKX

02/17/06

24.7%

POSCO (ADR)

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-2.1%

3.2%

-16

-16

KOF

04/29/05

47.2%

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Beverages (Non-Alcoholic)

-0.1%

10.2%

-15

-15

TM

12/13/04

56.7%

Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR)

Consumer Cyclical

Auto & Truck Manufacturers

0.0%

8.6%

-6

-6

SKM

02/07/05

27.5%

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

0.0%

11.3%

-5

-5

AZN

02/03/06

15.2%

AstraZeneca PLC (ADR)

Health Care

Major Drugs

0.0%

4.3%

-3

-3

 

 

      For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

 

Table 3F

Growth Momentum Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

SYT

04/08/05

27.3%

Syngenta AG (ADR)

Basic Materials

Chemical Manufacturing

-7.5%

-3.2%

-98

-98

ENDP

02/17/06

5.4%

Endo Pharmaceuticals

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-6.0%

-0.2%

-67

-67

BEN

11/04/05

6.3%

Franklin Resources, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-6.4%

-0.6%

-63

-63

WSO

11/25/05

9.1%

Watsco, Incorporated

Capital Goods

Misc. Capital Goods

-8.0%

-6.2%

-57

-57

HCC

10/21/05

25.1%

HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc.

Financial

Insurance (Property & Casualty)

-2.3%

1.3%

-35

-37

JEF

04/21/06

0.0%

Jefferies Group, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

0.0%

15.4%

-20

-20

LM

08/12/05

15.1%

Legg Mason, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-8.0%

-1.0%

-34

-34

OVTI

03/17/06

11.3%

OmniVision Technologies

Technology

Semiconductors

-5.1%

0.4%

-30

-33

CHB

02/17/06

1.0%

Champion Enterprises, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-3.5%

-1.6%

-32

-32

WCC

02/10/06

38.7%

WESCO International, Inc.

Technology

Electronic Instruments & Controls

-1.7%

16.3%

-13

-22

GRMN

03/03/06

16.2%

Garmin Ltd.

Technology

Communications Equipment

-2.3%

5.5%

-20

-22

GS

04/21/06

0.0%

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

0.0%

9.0%

-14

-16

UIC

03/17/06

16.2%

United Industrial Corp.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-3.8%

12.2%

-19

-20

CHE

05/06/05

57.0%

Chemed Corporation

Services

Business Services

-0.5%

3.5%

-11

-13

RIO

03/31/06

6.6%

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (ADR)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

0.0%

14.2%

-12

-13

DNR

03/03/06

22.8%

Denbury Resources Inc.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-3.0%

16.5%

-12

-12

BHP

09/09/05

45.4%

BHP Billiton Limited (ADR)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-2.6%

22.7%

-10

-11

PCU

12/02/05

47.0%

Southern Copper Corporation (USA)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-1.4%

24.4%

-8

-8

ET

10/21/05

54.2%

E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corporation

Financial

Investment Services

0.0%

6.7%

-6

-7

SM

03/17/06

12.1%

St. Mary Land & Exploration Co.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

0.0%

10.7%

-4

-4

APC

02/10/06

0.0%

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-0.1%

12.6%

-4

-4

AHC

02/03/06

0.0%

Amerada Hess Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas - Integrated

0.0%

9.8%

-3

-3

 

 

      The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term.  Two requirements were added.  One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities.  The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.

 

Table 3G

Warren Buffett Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

MDC

01/20/06

-8.4%

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-12.5%

-10.9%

-96

-96

ACS

04/29/05

22.0%

Affiliated Computer Services, Inc.

Technology

Computer Services

-8.4%

-4.7%

-89

-89

DHI

04/13/06

-1.9%

D.R. Horton Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-5.1%

-4.4%

-54

-89

NKE

09/23/05

2.2%

NIKE, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Footwear

-9.2%

-3.4%

-70

-70

DSPG

02/07/05

7.9%

DSP Group, Inc.

Technology

Communications Equipment

-10.2%

-2.6%

-67

-67

FNF

10/21/05

-4.0%

Fidelity National Financial

Financial

Insurance (Property & Casualty)

-11.2%

-2.7%

-66

-66

CECO

02/17/06

10.5%

Career Education Corp.

Services

Schools

-10.2%

-2.9%

-63

-63

RI

09/02/05

41.0%

Ruby Tuesday, Inc.

Services

Restaurants

-5.0%

1.7%

-53

-54

AH

02/03/06

21.0%

Armor Holdings, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-5.3%

5.7%

-44

-46

TOL

02/17/06

15.3%

Toll Brothers, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-4.2%

4.8%

-39

-39

RS

04/15/05

142.3%

Reliance Steel & Aluminum

Basic Materials

Misc. Fabricated Products

-3.1%

4.1%

-33

-37

HDI

10/14/05

4.4%

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Recreational Products

-7.9%

0.5%

-37

-37

SCHN

02/10/06

29.2%

Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc.

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-7.6%

-0.2%

-35

-35

TBL

02/17/06

-2.0%

The Timberland Company

Consumer Cyclical

Footwear

-2.2%

0.8%

-34

-34

KSWS

10/14/05

5.0%

K-Swiss Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Footwear

-11.5%

-1.8%

-31

-31

JBHT

03/31/06

8.6%

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

-1.3%

5.8%

-29

-29

THO

04/15/05

104.4%

Thor Industries, Inc.

Capital Goods

Mobile Homes & RVs

-1.6%

6.3%

-29

-29

RCII

10/21/05

60.3%

Rent-A-Center, Inc

Services

Rental & Leasing

-3.4%

3.6%

-27

-27

ASH

10/28/05

36.3%

Ashland Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-2.2%

5.6%

-23

-27

ANF

03/03/06

-2.1%

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-2.1%

4.4%

-25

-25

NUE

04/15/05

132.6%

Nucor Corporation

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-4.4%

10.9%

-21

-24

ABFS

04/29/05

35.5%

Arkansas Best Corporation

Transportation

Trucking

-6.1%

4.3%

-20

-20

BTI

12/30/05

13.1%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-1.0%

2.4%

-18

-18

UNT

03/03/06

4.1%

Unit Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-1.6%

1.8%

-18

-18

CCRT

12/30/05

2.4%

CompuCredit Corporation

Financial

Consumer Financial Services

-5.9%

10.4%

-16

-16

AEOS

03/10/06

6.2%

American Eagle Outfitters

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-1.2%

10.7%

-16

-16

EOG

04/13/06

7.5%

EOG Resources, Inc.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-1.6%

7.5%

-19

-14

PCU

02/10/06

18.7%

Southern Copper Corporation (USA)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-1.4%

24.4%

-8

-8

STLD

12/16/05

84.4%

Steel Dynamics, Inc.

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

0.0%

23.4%

-8

-8

OXY

03/03/06

12.6%

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

0.0%

14.1%

-1

-1

 

 

 

      Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H.  A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less. 

 

 

Table 3H

Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

PGN

01/10/05

-3.9%

Progress Energy, Inc.

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-7.4%

-5.7%

-78

-78

ATG

10/21/05

6.7%

AGL Resources Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-2.9%

-0.8%

-62

-62

WGL

12/23/05

-2.9%

WGL Holdings, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-5.9%

-3.3%

-60

-60

SRE

01/10/05

27.0%

Sempra Energy

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-5.8%

-2.8%

-50

-50

ATO

04/01/05

-0.9%

Atmos Energy Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-10.3%

0.8%

-26

-26

VVC

03/03/06

4.4%

Vectren Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-1.5%

4.5%

-22

-22

KEP

01/10/05

86.8%

Korea Electric Power Corporation (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-0.5%

6.6%

-18

-18

UU

06/10/05

2.6%

United Utilities PLC (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-0.5%

0.8%

-13

-13

UGI

12/30/05

8.2%

UGI Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-1.3%

3.2%

-12

-12

OKE

11/11/05

24.1%

ONEOK, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-1.0%

8.5%

-9

-10

EON

03/10/06

9.7%

E.ON AG (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

0.0%

7.8%

-3

-3

 

 

 

      Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I. 

 

Table 3I

John Templeton Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

MDC

12/30/05

-3.9%

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-12.5%

-10.9%

-96

-96

LOW

11/18/05

-4.0%

Lowe's Companies, Inc.

Services

Retail (Home Improvement)

-8.8%

-4.4%

-94

-94

DHI

03/03/06

-1.0%

D.R. Horton Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-7.9%

-4.4%

-89

-91

CPS

05/27/05

9.0%

ChoicePoint Inc.

Services

Business Services

-5.7%

-0.9%

-82

-82

JNJ

02/17/06

-1.2%

Johnson & Johnson

Health Care

Major Drugs

-4.3%

0.8%

-72

-72

ORLY

01/20/06

12.8%

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-5.6%

-2.2%

-70

-70

WSM

09/02/05

9.9%

Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-7.5%

-1.2%

-63

-68

BBBY

04/07/06

-5.8%

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-5.8%

-1.9%

-43

-60

CHD

11/18/05

8.7%

Church & Dwight Co., Inc.

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Personal & Household Products

-3.2%

-3.2%

-59

-59

COH

04/13/06

4.7%

Coach, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Apparel/Accessories

-0.4%

-1.1%

-55

-54

SNV

05/27/05

-6.1%

Synovus Financial Corp.

Financial

Regional Banks

-8.3%

-0.3%

-50

-50

HHS

10/28/05

6.8%

Harte-Hanks, Inc.

Services

Printing & Publishing

-9.3%

-1.5%

-50

-50

CAKE

10/21/05

3.9%

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated

Services

Restaurants

-7.4%

-4.0%

-45

-45

TOL

03/03/06

4.0%

Toll Brothers, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-4.2%

4.8%

-39

-39

HDI

02/24/06

-2.2%

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Recreational Products

-3.7%

3.5%

-37

-37

EWBC

12/30/05

9.6%

East West Bancorp, Inc.

Financial

Regional Banks

-2.2%

3.4%

-35

-35

DGX

08/19/05

9.7%

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-0.7%

4.6%

-28

-28

AMSG

10/14/05

4.2%

AmSurg Corp.

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-1.6%

3.1%

-26

-26

MIK

12/30/05

5.4%

Michaels Stores, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-2.8%

-1.9%

-25

-25

GTRC

03/03/06

1.5%

Guitar Center, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-1.2%

4.0%

-19

-21

GISX

12/30/05

9.7%

Global Imaging Systems, Inc.

Technology

Office Equipment

-0.4%

4.9%

-15

-15

EDMC

12/16/05

25.7%