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Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter ______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 76 May 8, 2006 Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com ______________________________________________________________________________
1.0 Trading
Market momentum is strongly positive.
1.1 Advance
This week, all the major indices advanced, as shown in Figure 1.
FIGURE 1
1.2 Filter Studies
Continuing with filter performance studies, the latest 1 year period is shown at the bottom of Table 1. Details of the filters can be found on the web site. Currently we are tracking filter performance with the S&P 500 Index 30-day SMA (simple moving average) relative to its 200-day SMA 1 month prior to the dates listed.
Table 1 1 Year Filter Performance Using No Trailing Stop
* Only 2 stocks were filtered for this group
The data continues to confirm that stocks selected by either filter do best when the S&P 500 remains several percent above its 200-day SMA for the most recent month. The performance shown is for cases where no trailing stops were used.
1.3 Trailing Stop Settings
Table 2 shows how typical profits change as the trailing stop is widened from -10% to -100%, essentially no stop setting at all. One factor in such performance is that the S&P 500 has been in a bull market over the past year, all be it with a saw tooth rising wedge pattern. Another factor is the quality of the filters themselves.
Stocks were filtered 1 year ago just after the S&P 500 bottomed out. In some cases, a fixed nominal trailing stop setting X% can be improved upon by applying a trailing stop to each individual stock based on its highest percentage gain. The variable value applied to stocks individually is,
Variable trailing stop percentage = Highest_%Gain / 3 - X%
This effectively tightens the trailing stop as the stock price rises in order to preserve gains. The variable trailing stop percentage is not allowed to expand wider than -X% or any narrower than -10%. A variable trailing stop was, in some cases, superior to a fixed trailing stop over the past year. The improvement is more likely when the trailing stop setting is narrower than -35% in an up trending market. Results depend on market behavior.
Table 2 1-Year %Gains with Variable and Fixed Trailing Stop Settings
Applying trailing stops to individual stocks is most easily done by putting the data and formulas in an Excel spreadsheet and download XLQPlus to retrieve stock prices automatically from Yahoo and MSN. The spreadsheet dynamically calculates stop loss settings and when its time to buy, hold or sell. Efforts are underway to make such an automatic spreadsheet available as a free download at http://www.wisertrader.com/excel.php . The effort involved has to do with providing a clear description of what the spreadsheet is doing and how to use it. Expect the spreadsheet to become available by next week.
Discussions of the 5-index momentum indicator will continue next week.
2.0 Market Analysis
All ten major sectors advanced this week accompanied by a slight lowering of treasury yields. Advances were led by blue chips. Employment data indicated a continued strong economy without inflation fostering wage increases. This gave more hope that the Fed would reach the end of rate tightening sooner rather than later.
Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
The VIX and VXN volatility indexes are listed in Table 2B.
Table 2B Volatility
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Table 2C
Market Summary
Industries are listed according to the Dow Jones Classification System
Major Indices
For the Past Week:
Dow Jones +1.9%
NASDAQ +0.9%
S&P500 Index +1.2%
Russell 2000 +2.3%
NYSE +1.9%
30 Year Bond 5.195%
10 Year Note 5.108%
Leading Industries
For the Past Week:
Coal
Steel
Trucking
Nonferrous Metals
Industrial Metals
Tires
Airlines
Pipelines
Delivery Services
Oil Equipment, Services & Dis
Lagging Industries
For the Past Week:
Toys
Insurance Brokers
Nondurable Household Products
Internet
Leisure Goods
Water
Health Care Providers
Specialized Consumer Services
Gold Mining
Household Goods
Leading Industries
For the Past Month:
Coal
Mining
Aluminum
Basic Resources
Transportation Services
Steel
Industrial Metals
Oil Equipment & Services Indep
Oil Equipment, Services & Dis
Business Training & Employ
Lagging Industries
For the Past Month:
Water
Home Construction
Health Care Providers
Toys
Specialized Consumer Services
Software
Leisure Goods
Biotechnology
Consumer Electronics
Health Care Equipment & Serv
Crude Oil $69.97
Gold for the past 30 days:
USD +14.77%
CAD +10.00%
CHF + 9.85%
GBP + 8.40%
EUR +11.29%
JPY + 9.49%
3.0 Procedure
A temporary disruption in one of our information channels prevents us from adding new picks this week. The existing picks are sorted according to their most recent performance.
The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders. The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.
Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.
One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence.
A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R. The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.
The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months. More information on filters is available on the web site.
A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A.
Table 3A Stock Filter Summary
Key
Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3B Net Insider Buying Check List
Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C Capital Rich Companies Check List
Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5. Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.
Table 3D Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List
For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E Peter Lynch Value Watch List
For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3F Growth Momentum Watch List
The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term. Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G Warren Buffett Value Watch List
Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H. A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3H Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I John Templeton Watch List
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