______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 26 – May 16, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
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1.1
Leaders
The market continued its up and down movement on
alternating days. Technology was the only bright spot this past week, as seen
in Table 1. Energy and Materials declined significantly.
Table 1
Selected Industry ETF's and Sector SPDR's 05/14/05
|
ETF & SPDR
|
1 month
|
1 wk ago
|
2 wks ago
|
3 wks ago
|
4 wks ago
|
|
GOLD
|
-1.1%
|
-1.3%
|
-1.9%
|
-0.1%
|
2.3%
|
|
Transportation
|
0.7%
|
-3.5%
|
3.0%
|
0.1%
|
1.3%
|
|
Telecommunications
|
-1.2%
|
-1.8%
|
-1.3%
|
1.2%
|
0.7%
|
|
Semiconductors
|
9.8%
|
2.5%
|
3.9%
|
0.6%
|
2.5%
|
|
Biotechnology
|
5.1%
|
1.2%
|
3.4%
|
-0.4%
|
0.8%
|
|
Banking
|
1.9%
|
-1.4%
|
0.3%
|
2.3%
|
0.7%
|
|
Real Estate
|
4.9%
|
-0.1%
|
0.6%
|
3.1%
|
1.2%
|
|
Oil
|
-4.0%
|
-6.2%
|
2.9%
|
-6.3%
|
6.2%
|
|
Financials
|
1.8%
|
-1.8%
|
1.1%
|
2.5%
|
0.0%
|
|
Utilities
|
0.6%
|
-2.2%
|
-0.8%
|
1.1%
|
2.4%
|
|
Healthcare
|
0.9%
|
-0.3%
|
0.9%
|
1.3%
|
-1.0%
|
|
Consumer
Staples
|
0.0%
|
-1.0%
|
1.3%
|
0.7%
|
-1.0%
|
|
Energy
|
-2.3%
|
-5.6%
|
1.4%
|
-3.5%
|
5.8%
|
|
Materials
|
-1.9%
|
-6.1%
|
2.7%
|
-0.2%
|
2.0%
|
|
Industrial
|
0.8%
|
-1.4%
|
0.9%
|
0.1%
|
1.2%
|
|
Technology
|
4.8%
|
1.2%
|
1.4%
|
0.3%
|
1.9%
|
|
Consumer
Discretionary
|
-0.2%
|
-1.3%
|
2.4%
|
-0.9%
|
-0.4%
|
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web
site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
Semiconductors rose based
on favorable earnings reports from Dell, Cisco and Nvidia with positive
outlooks for the rest of the year. It will be interesting to see if Technology
continues its up tick shown in Figure 1 as the week progresses.
FIGURE 1
Six
leading ETF’s for the past week appear with the S&P500 in Figure 2. The
chart shows that all 6 have gained over the past month. However, based on
their MACD, only one of these is in an established up trend, namely TLT, the
iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF. The Williams %R triggered on May 6th
through 9th with a 7 day SMA confirmation occurring on May 10th.
The other ETF’s in Figure 2
are in the very earliest stages of a possible up trend. The MACD indicates an
up trend when both the fast and the slow lines are both consistently above the
zero reference. Long entry points also occur with an increasing MACD histogram
that indicates an increasing gap between the fast line and the slow line, as is
the case for IGN, IGW and SMH. Long entry points can be indicated before that when
the fast line first crosses above the slow line. Although BDH and MTK look
impressive, their MACD’s do not indicate rising histograms and they trade at
lower volumes. . . . Watch your trailing stops . . .
FIGURE 2
2.0 Market Analysis
Industry leaders in Table 2
rank from highest to lowest.
Major Indices:
Dow Jones -2.0%
NASDAQ +0.5%
S&P500 Index -1.5%
Russell 2000 -2.4%
30 Year Bond 4.484%
10 Year Note 4.121%
Industry Leaders
For the Past Week:
Telecommunications Equipment
Semiconductors
Biotechnology
Aerospace & Defense
Technology Hardware & Equip
Specialized Consumer Services
Computer Hardware
Technology
Electrical Components & Equip
Software
Industry Leaders
For the Past Month:
Internet
Biotechnology
Semiconductors
Telecommunications Equipment
Tires
Soft Drinks
Real Estate Holding & Develop
Technology Hardware & Equip
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Beverages
Crude Oil $48.67
Gold for the past 30 days:
USD -0.83%
CAD +0.93%
CHF +0.01%
GBP +0.78%
EUR +0.61%
JPY -1.62%
Strong retail sales, a
lower trade deficit, strong employment figures and falling oil prices were
positives for the economy. Unchanging inflation expectations, lower consumer
confidence and possible hedge fund liquidity problems are negatives.
The market ended its
three-week winning streak despite bullish economic, earnings, and oil
news. This reflects the underlying nervousness that is leading to an
increased risk premium on stocks. The price/earnings multiple on
operating earnings for the S&P 500 has plunged over the past six months
from 20.2 to 16.8. That has produced talk that blue chips stocks are
reaching excellent valuation levels. Yet, until some of the nervousness
subsides, this value will not be realized. It will take better inflation
numbers and continued solid economic numbers for that to happen. PPI data are
due on Tuesday and CPI data on Wednesday.
The 5 day RSI for the DOW
is over sold and is neutral for the S&P500 and NASDAQ. The 5 week RSI is neutral
for all three major indices. Other sentiment indicators are in Table 3.
Table 3
VTO Report on Market Sentiment
Indicators
|
Sentiment Indicator
|
Value
|
Last Week
|
2 Weeks Ago
|
Complacent
|
Cautious
|
|
VIX *
|
16.32
|
14.05
|
15.31
|
< 20
|
> 50
|
|
VXN **
|
18.41
|
17.58
|
18.54
|
< 30
|
> 70
|
|
Put/Call Ratio
|
0.722
|
0.802
|
0.738
|
< 0.6
|
> 0.7
|
|
%Bulls - %Bears
|
18.2%
|
13.1%
|
14.3%
|
> 29
|
< 20
|
|
* VIX
is above its 20 day SMA – a sell signal
** VXN
is below its 20 day SMA – a buy signal
|
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily recommended
trades. The “Reference” is the date that a stock was added to the list. The “%
Change” is how the price has changed since a stock was added to the list. Stocks
that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed. The “% from Max” is
the last price relative to the maximum price reached after a stock was added to
the list. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are
flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being
listed are removed. More information on each of these filters is available on
the web site. Send me an email
if you want more details on a filter.
Key
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3A. CNST, IPSU, IRN, MERCS and CSTA declined more
than 10% since being listed and were removed.
Table 3A
Net Insider Buying Stock Filter
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ACAD
|
04/29/05
|
-3.6%
|
ACADIA
Pharmaceuticals Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-6.6%
|
|
FTD
|
04/08/05
|
-6.1%
|
FTD Group,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Catalog & Mail Order)
|
-6.3%
|
|
FVRL
|
04/22/05
|
-1.0%
|
Favrille,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-8.0%
|
|
INHX
|
04/08/05
|
-1.5%
|
Inhibitex,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-7.0%
|
|
IPXLE
|
04/29/05
|
1.7%
|
Impax
Laboratories Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.5%
|
|
ITMN
|
04/08/05
|
0.6%
|
InterMune,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-0.4%
|
|
OSHC
|
04/08/05
|
-2.7%
|
Ocean
Shore Holding Co.
|
Financial
|
S&Ls/Savings
Banks
|
-2.9%
|
|
THLD
|
05/06/05
|
-7.1%
|
Threshold
Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-7.1%
|
|
TRCA
|
04/29/05
|
23.3%
|
Tercica,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-3.0%
|
|
ZHNE
|
05/06/05
|
5.5%
|
Zhone
Technologies, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-1.2%
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table
3B.
Table 3B
Capital Rich Companies Filter
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ACP
|
04/08/05
|
4.0%
|
American
Real Estate Partners, L.P.
|
Services
|
Casinos
& Gaming
|
-0.6%
|
|
ADZA
|
04/08/05
|
10.6%
|
Adeza
Biomedical Corporation
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-3.8%
|
|
BCGI
|
05/06/05
|
0.0%
|
Boston
Communications Group Inc
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-6.9%
|
|
CDCO
|
04/22/05
|
1.5%
|
COMDISCO
HLDG CO INC
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
-0.3%
|
|
CFNB
|
05/13/05
|
0.0%
|
California First National Bancorp
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
0.0%
|
|
EXAR
|
04/29/05
|
0.9%
|
Exar
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
-2.7%
|
|
FDRY
|
04/29/05
|
-1.7%
|
Foundry
Networks, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-1.7%
|
|
KEYN
|
05/13/05
|
0.0%
|
Keynote
Systems, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
MFW
|
05/13/05
|
0.0%
|
M & F
Worldwide Corp.
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
0.0%
|
|
NCTY
|
04/08/05
|
20.4%
|
The9
Limited
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-11.2%
|
|
VNUS
|
05/06/05
|
5.7%
|
VNUS Medical
Technologies, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-4.6%
|
|
WSC
|
04/08/05
|
-6.8%
|
Wesco
Financial Corp.
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-8.1%
|
|
WZEN
|
04/22/05
|
-3.8%
|
Webzen
Inc. (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-5.7%
|
For the screen in
Table 3C, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30.
Table 3C
Growth Momentum Watch
List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
BDK
|
04/29/05
|
-2.8%
|
The Black
& Decker Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-3.6%
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
3.8%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-0.4%
|
|
CRAI
|
03/18/05
|
3.1%
|
Charles
River Associates
Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-2.3%
|
|
ORCC
|
05/06/05
|
-8.5%
|
Online
Resources Corp.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-9.5%
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
-4.2%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-8.8%
|
|
PNR
|
05/06/05
|
5.8%
|
Pentair,
Inc.
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
0.0%
|
|
PTRY
|
04/29/05
|
5.4%
|
The
Pantry, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
-1.2%
|
|
SFY
|
04/22/05
|
3.5%
|
Swift
Energy Company
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-6.3%
|
|
SGK
|
05/13/05
|
0.0%
|
Schawk,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Printing
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
SPF
|
05/06/05
|
-5.5%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-6.1%
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
-3.2%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-4.5%
|
|
TDY
|
04/29/05
|
-0.8%
|
Teledyne
Technologies Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-5.2%
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
2.3%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-3.3%
|
|
WOS
|
04/01/05
|
-7.8%
|
Wolseley plc
(ADR)
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-10.6%
|
|
ZNT
|
04/15/05
|
13.6%
|
Zenith
National Insurance Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-3.1%
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30. CSLMF, NL and GGB were removed due to price declines.
Table 3D
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
BLSC
|
04/22/05
|
9.2%
|
Bio-Logic
Systems Corp.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
0.0%
|
|
CAJ
|
01/31/05
|
-0.4%
|
Canon Inc.
(ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-3.6%
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
2.3%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-3.1%
|
|
GMK
|
05/06/05
|
0.5%
|
Gruma S.A.
de C.V. (ADR)
|
Consumer Non-Cyclical
|
Food
Processing
|
0.0%
|
|
KEP
|
12/13/04
|
2.6%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-7.8%
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
-0.9%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-2.5%
|
|
LFL
|
05/13/05
|
0.0%
|
Lan Airlines
S.A. (ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Airline
|
0.0%
|
|
MKTAY
|
04/15/05
|
7.7%
|
Makita
Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-2.5%
|
|
NHY
|
04/29/05
|
-2.7%
|
Norsk
Hydro ASA (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-6.8%
|
|
NOLD
|
12/13/04
|
64.9%
|
Noland
Company
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-0.7%
|
|
NTE
|
05/06/05
|
1.3%
|
Nam Tai
Electronics, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Electronic
Instruments & Controls
|
-0.9%
|
|
PKX
|
04/29/05
|
-3.4%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-7.7%
|
|
RD
|
04/29/05
|
-3.1%
|
Royal
Dutch Petroleum Company (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-5.2%
|
|
SAB
|
05/13/05
|
0.0%
|
Grupo Casa
Saba, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Personal
& Household Products
|
0.0%
|
|
SC
|
04/29/05
|
-5.1%
|
Shell
Transport & Trading (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-6.6%
|
|
SHI
|
04/22/05
|
-2.5%
|
Sinopec
Shanghai Petrochemical Co. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-2.7%
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
-2.9%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-9.5%
|
|
TKS
|
04/15/05
|
-8.9%
|
Tomkins
plc (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-9.9%
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
-4.6%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-12.6%
|
|
VCP
|
05/06/05
|
-6.1%
|
Votorantim
Celulose e Papel S.A (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Forestry
& Wood Products
|
-6.1%
|
|
VLCCF
|
12/13/04
|
22.9%
|
Knightsbridge
Tankers Limited
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
-7.0%
|
|
YPF
|
04/15/05
|
4.0%
|
YPF
Sociedad Anonima S.A. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-8.7%
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3E is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less. STLD was removed due to a price
decline.
Table 3E
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
-3.2%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-7.9%
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
0.0%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-1.5%
|
|
APPB
|
04/29/05
|
2.1%
|
Applebee's
Int'l, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-1.1%
|
|
CACH
|
04/29/05
|
5.1%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
-3.4%
|
|
DHI
|
04/15/05
|
11.4%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-6.7%
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
-7.3%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-11.4%
|
|
ELBO
|
01/31/05
|
59.6%
|
Electronics
Boutique Holdings Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Technology)
|
-1.6%
|
|
FOSL
|
05/13/05
|
0.0%
|
Fossil,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Jewelry
& Silverware
|
0.0%
|
|
HDI
|
04/15/05
|
2.4%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-4.9%
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
1.6%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-4.1%
|
|
LXK
|
04/29/05
|
-6.0%
|
Lexmark
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-6.0%
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
-1.7%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-10.6%
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
8.0%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-2.9%
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
-8.7%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
-14.5%
|
|
SRT
|
05/06/05
|
-3.5%
|
StarTek,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-4.7%
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
4.9%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
-3.5%
|
|
TLK
|
04/29/05
|
2.6%
|
PT
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-4.6%
|
|
TSCO
|
04/22/05
|
-2.1%
|
Tractor
Supply Company
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
-4.5%
|
|
VLCCF
|
02/21/05
|
9.2%
|
Knightsbridge
Tankers Limited
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
-7.0%
|
The stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3F. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3F
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ATG
|
04/29/05
|
-2.5%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-3.4%
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
-0.7%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-3.3%
|
|
CEG
|
04/29/05
|
-2.2%
|
Constellation
Energy Group
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-4.3%
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
9.8%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.9%
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
10.8%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-7.8%
|
|
NFG
|
04/08/05
|
-6.7%
|
National
Fuel Gas Co.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-8.8%
|
|
OKE
|
04/15/05
|
1.5%
|
ONEOK,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-3.4%
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
-2.2%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-4.3%
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
-2.6%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-4.5%
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
4.6%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-10.3%
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
5.3%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-1.0%
|
4.0
Results
This section lists
historical results of stock and options trades.
4.1 Stock Trades
Table 4A
Closed Stock Trades
|
Stock
|
Ref Date
|
Ref. Price
|
Last
|
Action
|
P/L(%)
|
Status
|
|
TXU
|
11/22/04
|
63.98
|
$82.75
|
Long
|
29.3%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
SID
|
12/20/04
|
18.49
|
$21.95
|
Long
|
18.7%
|
Closed 04/08
|
|
AET
|
01/03/05
|
61.40
|
$71.24
|
Long
|
16.0%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
AAPL
|
01/10/05
|
34.48
|
$37.26
|
Long
|
8.1%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
TS
|
01/10/05
|
46.61
|
$54.89
|
Long
|
17.8%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
MDRX
|
02/07/05
|
11.25
|
$13.50
|
Long
|
20.0%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
VLO
|
02/07/05
|
58.26
|
$72.18
|
Long
|
23.9%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
PCO
|
02/14/05
|
53.51
|
$57.49
|
Long
|
7.4%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
BYD
|
02/18/05
|
49.96
|
$54.38
|
Long
|
8.8%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
RETK
|
03/04/05
|
8.49
|
$11.25
|
Long
|
32.5%
|
Closed 04/12
|
|
WDC
|
04/09/05
|
13.78
|
$12.67
|
Long
|
-8.1%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
ISRG
|
04/15/05
|
47.92
|
43.15
|
Long
|
-10.0%
|
Closed 04/22
|
|
WYNN
|
04/21/05
|
55.65
|
57.68
|
Short
|
-3.6%
|
Closed 04/26
|
|
UTHR
|
04/21/05
|
51.37
|
48.62
|
Long
|
-5.4%
|
Closed 05/02
|
|
DJ
|
04/15/05
|
33.98
|
33.08
|
Short
|
2.6%
|
Closed 05/02
|
|
GM
|
04/15/05
|
25.60
|
30.29
|
Short
|
-18.3%
|
Closed 05/03
|
|
VLO
|
04/21/05
|
75.13
|
67.60
|
Long
|
-10.0%
|
Closed 05/11
|
|
OPTN
|
04/15/05
|
14.09
|
13.05
|
Long
|
-7.4%
|
Closed 05/11
|
For Stock Trades:
Average fractional profit for 18 trades, FP
= 6.8% per trade.
Fraction of trades in the correct direction, FC
= 61.1%
Average fractional gain for 11 winning
trades, FG = 16.8% per trade.
Average fractional loss for 7 losing
trades, FL = -9.0% per trade.
The dollar profit goal DG is
set equal to the average capital used per trade C such that
N = 1 / FP = 14.7 is
the average number of trades needed to earn the average traded amount.
The Profit Factor for this trading system, FG
FC / [FL (1 - FC)] = 2.07
Gross Profits divided by Gross Losses (includes
1% commission)
4.2
Option Trades
Table 4B
Closed Option
Trades
|
Stock
|
Buy Date
|
Buy Price
|
Last
|
Action
|
P/L(%)
|
Option
|
|
URBN
|
11/23/04
|
11.50
|
$9.00
|
Sold 11/30
|
-21.7%
|
URQ FG JUN
35.00 CALL
|
|
TXU
|
11/23/04
|
11.30
|
$6.30
|
Sold 12/2
|
-44.2%
|
TXU DK APR
55.00 CALL
|
|
USG
|
11/23/04
|
8.40
|
$12.80
|
Sold 12/15
|
52.4%
|
MAY 25.00
CALL
|
|
ADSK
|
12/20/04
|
8.20
|
$9.20
|
Sold 12/23
|
12.2%
|
ADQ GN JUL
70.00 CALL
|
|
MON
|
12/20/04
|
3.80
|
$4.80
|
Sold 12/23
|
26.3%
|
MON GJ JUL
50.00 CALL
|
|
POT
|
12/20/04
|
7.00
|
$8.00
|
Sold 12/23
|
14.3%
|
POT FP JUN
80.00 CALL
|
|
TXI
|
12/20/04
|
5.50
|
$9.00
|
Sold 12/23
|
63.6%
|
TXI GL JUL
60.00 CALL
|
|
AET
|
01/07/05
|
5.70
|
$7.10
|
Sold 01/19
|
24.6%
|
AET GX JUL
135.00 CALL
|
|
CLF
|
01/07/05
|
7.30
|
$9.20
|
Sold 01/19
|
26.0%
|
CLF GJ JUL
50.00 CALL
|
|
MTH
|
01/21/05
|
6.80
|
$9.20
|
Sold 02/01
|
35.3%
|
MTH FZ JUN
62.50 CALL
|
|
BZH
|
01/31/05
|
13.70
|
$17.30
|
Sold 02/01
|
26.3%
|
BZH HJ AUG
150.00 CALL
|
|
KBH
|
01/31/05
|
9.20
|
$11.10
|
Sold 02/01
|
20.7%
|
KBH GU JUL
110.00 CALL
|
|
BHP
|
01/28/05
|
2.25
|
$2.70
|
Sold 02/01
|
20.0%
|
BHP HE AUG
25.00 CALL
|
|
X
|
01/25/05
|
5.30
|
$4.90
|
Sold 02/02
|
-7.5%
|
X GK JUL
55.00 CALL
|
|
SFI
|
01/24/05
|
0.75
|
$0.30
|
Sold 02/04
|
-60.0%
|
SFI PH APR
40.00 PUT
|
|
EBAY
|
02/07/05
|
6.80
|
$5.60
|
Sold 02/08
|
-17.6%
|
XBA SO JUL
75.00 PUT
|
|
CCJ
|
02/04/05
|
6.60
|
$10.20
|
Sold 02/11
|
54.5%
|
CCJ IG SEP
35.00 CALL
|
|
MON
|
02/04/05
|
8.00
|
$8.20
|
Sold 02/15
|
2.5%
|
MON GJ JUL
50.00 CALL
|
|
TOL
|
01/02/00
|
7.10
|
$7.30
|
Sold 02/17
|
2.8%
|
TOL IR SEP
90.00 CALL
|
|
BZH
|
02/09/05
|
14.60
|
$16.90
|
Sold 02/17
|
15.8%
|
BZH HN AUG
170.00 CALL
|
|
KBH
|
02/07/05
|
11.10
|
$10.40
|
Sold 02/18
|
-6.3%
|
KBH GC JUL
115.00 CALL
|
|
VLO
|
02/24/05
|
6.98
|
$8.70
|
Sold 03/02
|
24.6%
|
VLO IN SEP
70.00 CALL
|
|
TXU
|
02/25/05
|
3.55
|
$4.70
|
Sold 03/04
|
32.4%
|
TXU GP JUL
80.00 CALL
|
|
SWN
|
03/03/05
|
6.50
|
$5.00
|
Sold 03/11
|
-23.1%
|
SWN IL SEP
60.00 CALL
|
|
GM
|
03/09/05
|
2.20
|
$5.80
|
Sold 03/17
|
163.6%
|
GM UZ SEP
32.50 PUT
|
|
VLO
|
03/17/05
|
6.60
|
$7.50
|
Sold 03/18
|
13.6%
|
YGY AP JAN
80.00 CALL
|
|
BHP
|
02/24/05
|
2.25
|
$2.40
|
Sold 03/22
|
6.7%
|
BHP HF AUG
30.00 CALL
|
|
QQQQ
|
03/29/05
|
1.05
|
$0.85
|
Sold 03/31
|
-19.0%
|
QQQ RJ JUN
36.00 PUT
|
|
TNX
|
03/14/05
|
6.80
|
$4.80
|
Sold 04/07
|
-29.4%
|
TNX LI DEC
45.00 CALL
|
|
PCO
|
03/17/05
|
5.00
|
$6.50
|
Sold 04/12
|
30.0%
|
PCO IL SEP
60.00 CALL
|
|
VLO
|
04/04/05
|
10.30
|
$11.10
|
Sold 04/11
|
7.8%
|
YGY AP JAN
80.00 CALL
|
|
AAPL
|
04/12/05
|
4.40
|
$2.25
|
Sold 04/14
|
-48.9%
|
QAA GV JUL
42.50 CALL
|
|
PCO
|
04/19/05
|
5.70
|
$13.20
|
Sold 04/25
|
161.6%
|
PCO IL SEP
60.00 CALL
|
|
VLO
|
04/19/05
|
8.80
|
$10.50
|
Sold 04/25
|
19.3%
|
YGY AP JAN
80.00 CALL
|
|
WYNN
|
04/21/05
|
6.40
|
$5.20
|
Sold 04/26
|
-18.8%
|
UWY UK Sep 55.00 PUT
|
|
WYNN
|
04/26/05
|
2.75
|
$2.20
|
Sold 04/28
|
-20.0%
|
UWY FL JUN 60.00 call
|
|
DJ
|
04/18/05
|
2.70
|
$2.60
|
Sold 05/03
|
-3.7%
|
DJ UG SEP
35.00 PUT
|
|
UTHR
|
04/25/05
|
5.20
|
$4.70
|
Sold 05/03
|
-9.6%
|
FUH HJ AUG
50.00 CALL
|
|
VLCCF
|
05/02/05
|
2.65
|
$2.80
|
Sold 05/12
|
5.7%
|
QHF II SEP
45.00 CALL
|
|
LCAV
|
05/02/05
|
5.80
|
$4.50
|
Sold 05/13
|
-22.4%
|
JVQ LH DEC
40.00 CALL
|
For Option Trades:
Average fractional profit for 40 trades, FP
= 12.8% per trade.
Fraction of trades chosen in the correct direction, FC
= 62.5%
Average fractional gain for 25 winning trades, FG
= 34.5% per trade.
Average fractional loss for 15 losing trades, FL
= -23.4% per trade.
The dollar profit goal DG
is set equal to the average capital used per trade C such that
N = 1 / FP = 7.8 is the
average number of trades to earn the average traded amount.
The
Profit Factor for the trading system, FG FC / [FL
(1 - FC)] = 2.1
Gross Profits divided by Gross Losses (includes
1% commission)
5.0 Conclusion
Performance since the
beginning of 2005:
Average Profit Per
Trade in 2005
|
Stock Advisory
|
+6.8%
|
|
Options Advisory
|
+12.8%
|
Major Indices in
2005
|
DOW
|
-6.0%
|
|
NASDAQ:
|
-9.1%
|
|
S&P500
|
-4.8%
|
|
Russell 2000
|
-10.7%
|
Appendix
Investment Conference Schedule
Below are links to
conference registration sites where you can sign up.
- 05-17-05 London, United Kingdom "Corporate Venturing
& Spinouts Conference "
- 05-17-05 New York, NY "Hedge Funds
Regulation and Compliance 2005 - Gain Advanced Operational, Legal and
Accounting Strategies to Achieve full Compliance in Today's Regulatory
Environment "
- 05-23-05 New York, NY -Both professional and
sophisticated private investors meet with the world's leaders in gold,
silver, precious metals, copper and oil and gas exploration and production "New York Institutional Gold Conference"
- 06-01-05 San Francisco, CA "Venture Capital
Investing Conference"
- 06-12-05 Vancouver, BC "World Gold, PGM &
Diamond Investment Conference" Resource Investment
Conferences featuring small cap opportunities in gold, diamonds, oil &
gas, industrial and emerging growth situations are being presented in
Canada. Pre-registration is complimentary to: investors who are clients of
sponsoring firms which include discount and full service brokerage houses;
subscribers of participating newsletters, sponsoring media and sponsoring
internet investment services; shareholders of participating exhibitors;
accredited investment advisors and investors who take an interest in
managing their own personal portfolios.
- 09-07-05 Las Vegas, Nevada "Gold and Precious Metals Investment Conference"
The gold and
metal resource market has demonstrated its strength and longevity,
achieving sustained growth and multi-decade highs in the last year.
Explore the shining prospects of gold, silver, copper, uranium and other
fast-rising commodities. Realize your full potential in this sustained
bull market, with Natural Resources the clear profit leaders.
- 09-29-05 Las Vegas, Nevada "Tradestation World
Users Conference" Trade Station World Conference and Expo, the premier
conference for TradeStation users, is coming to the Venetian Hotel in Las
Vegas, September 29 - October 2, 2005. Here's where you learn about how to
design your personal trading strategies, and to test those strategies
against historical data.
- 10-02-05 Toronto, Ontario "Toronto Resource Investment Conference"
- 10-30-05 New Orleans, LA "New Orleans Investment Conference"
- 11-10-05 Millbrae, CA "Biotech Investing
Conference" Continuing advances in genomics, proteomics and
enabling technologies makes the Biotech sector a favorite among private
equity investors and venture capitalists. The Biotech Investing Conference
is an industry gathering of the leading private equity investors, venture
capitalists, biotech companies, pharmaceutical companies, corporate
investors and institutional investors.
- 11-27-05 San Francisco, CA "Gold and Precious Metals Conference"
Both
professional and sophisticated private investors meet with the world's
leaders in gold, silver, precious metals, copper and oil and gas
exploration and production. The Natural Resource industry's newest
opportunities are presented, together with educational seminars, executive
panels and investment workshops led by top finance specialists, economic
analysts and newsletter editors. Admission is complimentary with
pre-registration.
Conference Search