______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 27 – May 23, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
This is a special offer. In
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your email with a brief comment will be enough to give you 1 month of free
service. This is a chance to satisfy your curiosity with almost no effort. If
you already subscribe to one of the advisories, this will add an additional
month to your subscription. If you are interested, just send an email with
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by June 6, 2005. Be sure to include whether you want a free month of the stock
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This kind of offer can not
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be a way to save money on non-software formats by collectively sharing costs
and information. The more people that go in on the cost, the cheaper it is for
everyone. Of course, you need to adhere to the trading system designer’s terms
of use. Most software, for example, allows only one user per purchase. One
way to contact interested parties is through the message board forum. The forum is unlocked
for use.
1.1
Scanning Data
Did you know that it is
possible to track of hundreds of stocks at a glance in Microsoft Excel? A
trader faces the challenge of tracking multiple asset classes containing large
numbers of entries. He needs to track changes in price behavior and technical
indicators and compare them in charts.
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web
site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be made
in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
Preferably, the
information is automatically and continuously updated. Many stock scanning
tools are available today to collect price and volume data over the internet from
free data sources. Some have modest flexibility in the way data is presented.
Others are more limited. So far, I have only found one tool that can import
delayed and real time streaming stock, options and currency exchange rate data directly
into Microsoft Excel. That tool is XLQ-Plus.
It downloads and installs with a few key strokes in a Windows environment and
runs in the background under Excel. The set up is straight forward and no
system reconfiguration is required. Sample spreadsheets come with it to help get
you started and operational spreadsheets are available from many sources,
including me.
The main advantage of the
XLQ-Excel interface is its nearly infinite ability to manipulate huge tables of
data using the full range of Excel’s algebraic, arithmetic, Boolean, Visual
Basic and statistical functions along with macros and conditional formatting
to display data in the form of numbers, text and charts – all
continuously updated. Only an experienced Excel user can fully
appreciate all this power.
Each function allows you to
specify the data source. Sources of data are:
YAHOO - retrieve data available from www.Yahoo.com
MSN - retrieve data available from moneycentral.msn.com
YAHOO-ECN - retrieves available live ECN data from www.Yahoo.com
YAHOO-RT - retrieves real time data available from www.Yahoo.com. (Configure your login via XLQ
preferences)
YAHOO-EU - will retrieve data from European Yahoo sites.
YAHOO-UK - will retrieve data from Yahoo's UK site.
YAHOO-INT - will retrieve data available through all other Yahoo sites around
the world.
IQFEED - subscription streaming real time data covering equities,
options and futures, including intraday backfill and historic data (http://www.iqfeed.net/XLQ/
) (xlqPlus only)
AAII - a function suffix that collects historical
data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Stock
Investor Professional (SIP) proprietary historical weekly database of 8,000
stocks. This database contains entries from balance sheets, income statements
and cash flow statements, among much other historical and industry related company
data.
For the kind of data
scanning needed to get an overall feel for what the market is doing, real time
streaming data is not necessary. Most of my trading decisions are made after
market hours anyway so that the 20 minute delay in free Yahoo and MSN data is
quite adequate. However, I do subscribe to the AAII - SIP software and
database for a more complete historical picture of the markets.
A large number of data
collection functions are defined for the specific time span of price data you
want to appear in Excel. Information can be as specific as the last bid and
ask price or as general as the average volume, market cap or 52 week high.
There are literally hundreds of functions available. Examples of some of the
entities displayed and continuously updated in some of my spreadsheets are: the
most recent stock quotes, options quotes, ETF quotes, monthly, weekly and daily
price changes, foreign currency exchange rates, MACD, William %R, price to
book, PE ratio, PEG ratio, price to sales, current EPS, expected EPS this year,
last earnings report date, earning surprise, today’s volume, percent of average
volume and, of course, the Stephen Cooper biggies, % rank relative strength, %
of 52 week high and 12 month EPS growth. These are only a tiny fraction of
what is available.
As a regular reader of this
newsletter, you see examples of the XLQ-Plus, Excel, SIP combination all the
time. Most of the charts and tables in this newsletter are automatically
updated, including many of the color indicators. I give the data some
thoughtful consideration in order to summarize it each week but there is not
enough time to comb through all the data and manually rearrange it for
presentation. It has to be a simple copy and paste or the work could not be
done on time. If you use Excel in a Windows environment, this is a great way
to track a large number of stocks with nearly unlimited flexibility. If you
use Excel in a public environment, such as on the job, all anyone will notice
on your monitor is an open spreadsheet. The method does not require use of
Internet Explorer but you do need an internet connection, the faster the
better. Although a dial up might work, you have to ask the designer. I have
not tried it on a dial up. After all, we are talking about a lot of data
here.
XLQ is the glue that
combines internet stock data, Microsoft Excel and AAII SIP. For anyone who
needs a continuous and broad market snapshot at a glance, XLQ-Plus
provides a relatively inexpensive solution to import market data into Excel for
flexible presentation. As a user of XLQ-Plus, Excel and SIP for a number of years,
I highly recommend that you investigate how XLQ-Plus can save you time and
effort and broaden your view of market activity while simplifying it at the
same time while using Microsoft Excel.
1.2 Market Trends
While the market see saw
action is not completely gone, technology stocks did some heavy lifting this
week. Even energy and materials rebounded somewhat. Healthcare was
surprisingly flat for the week although it took less of a dip earlier and, as a
defensive play, is probably more likely to remain consistently in positive
territory.
One has to be mindful that
charts like Figure 1 have a moving zero reference baseline and can take on a
dramatically different appearance from week to week compared to a chart where
the baseline remains fixed. For example, in a few days the zero baseline will
move to 4/26/05 and this will effectively shift many of the curves upward, some
by as much as 4 to 8%. This might move even energy and materials into positive
territory.
Figure 2 shows a number of
ETF leaders for the past week along with those for the major indices and their
confirming indicators. It is a good idea to monitor transportation as it helps
to confirm the direction of the DOW. The S&P 500 is confirmed by the
financial sector in Figure 1 and the banking industry in Figure 2. They appear
to be in sync. The NASDAQ seldom moves consistently without parallel movement
in semiconductors and biotechnology. They also appear to confirm one another.
The only discordant ETF in the chart is gold whose gradual downward movement
over the past month is a sign of the continuous rise in the US dollar.
The leading industry ETF’s
are broadband holders BDH, biotech BBH, Mexico ishares EWW and semiconductor
holders SMH. Aside from these, most everything else moved upward in tandem.
There was weakness in a few Asian ETF’s last week, particularly Japan and Hong Kong.
FIGURE 1
FIGURE 2
A tabular view of segments of Figures 1 and 2 is presented in Table 1
Table 1
Industry ETF's and Sector SPDR's 05/21/05
|
Industry or Sector
|
1 month
|
1 wk
ago
|
2 wks
ago
|
3 wks
ago
|
4 wks
ago
|
|
GOLD
|
-4.0%
|
-0.7%
|
-1.3%
|
-1.9%
|
-0.1%
|
|
Transportation
|
5.8%
|
6.3%
|
-3.5%
|
3.0%
|
0.1%
|
|
Telecommunications
|
1.4%
|
3.4%
|
-1.8%
|
-1.3%
|
1.2%
|
|
Semiconductors
|
10.4%
|
3.1%
|
2.5%
|
3.9%
|
0.6%
|
|
Biotechnology
|
6.4%
|
2.0%
|
1.2%
|
3.4%
|
-0.4%
|
|
Real Estate
|
8.5%
|
4.7%
|
-0.1%
|
0.6%
|
3.1%
|
|
Oil
|
-7.4%
|
2.4%
|
-6.2%
|
2.9%
|
-6.3%
|
|
Energy
|
-5.7%
|
2.2%
|
-5.6%
|
1.4%
|
-3.5%
|
|
Materials
|
-0.7%
|
3.3%
|
-6.1%
|
2.7%
|
-0.2%
|
|
Financials
|
5.4%
|
3.6%
|
-1.8%
|
1.1%
|
2.5%
|
|
Utilities
|
0.5%
|
2.4%
|
-2.2%
|
-0.8%
|
1.1%
|
|
Healthcare
|
3.2%
|
1.3%
|
-0.3%
|
0.9%
|
1.3%
|
|
Industrial
|
3.3%
|
3.7%
|
-1.4%
|
0.9%
|
0.1%
|
|
Technology
|
6.4%
|
3.5%
|
1.2%
|
1.4%
|
0.3%
|
|
Consumer
Staples
|
4.0%
|
2.9%
|
-1.0%
|
1.3%
|
0.7%
|
|
Consumer
Discretionary
|
4.9%
|
4.6%
|
-1.3%
|
2.4%
|
-0.9%
|
2.0 Market Analysis
Industry leaders in Table 2
rank from highest to lowest.
Major indices were up
strongly each of the first four days, and on Friday there was limited
profit-taking in a mixed market. The big news item of the week was that the
core rate in the April CPI was flat. February had been up 0.3% and March
0.4%. The core PPI the day before had been reported at +0.3%, up from
0.1% the prior two months. So the market was expecting a 0.2% or 0.3%
core CPI. The flat number, however, indicated that inflationary pressures were
not nearly as bad as the worst market fears. In fact, it suggests that
inflation may not be picking up much at all. The core rate averaged 0.2%
for the past two months, which is not that much above the 2.2% year-over-year
increase in the core rate.
Additional good news on the
inflation front came from broad declines in commodity prices. Oil ended
the week at $46.80, down from $48.67 last week. Other commodity prices,
such as grains and metals, have also been declining steadily the past few weeks
since spiking in March and April. This suggests that inflation won't pick
up significantly in the months ahead.
More optimistic data came
from a big jump in April housing starts. The housing sector continues to
defy forecasts of an imminent decline.
The news this week wasn't
all good, however. Manufacturing data were disappointing. April
industrial production was reported at -0.2%. The economy may not be
stagnating, but it is no longer booming either.
Underlying sentiment has
improved. This is due to the erosion of the extreme pessimism that
prevailed in March and early April. The market has bounced back, but
there are doubts about whether the recent rally will have legs.
Valuations are at reasonable levels, but a significant rally would require
increased confidence that the slowdown in economic and earnings growth will not
be severe, and the inflation really is under control.
The 5 day RSI for the DOW,
S&P500 and NASDAQ are overbought while the 5 week RSI are neutral for all
three major indices. Other sentiment indicators are in Table 3.
Table 3
VTO Report on Market Sentiment
Indicators 5/21/05
|
Sentiment Indicator
|
Value
|
Last Week
|
2 Weeks Ago
|
Complacent
|
Cautious
|
|
VIX *
|
13.14
|
16.32
|
14.05
|
< 20
|
> 50
|
|
VXN **
|
15.88
|
18.41
|
17.58
|
< 30
|
> 70
|
|
Put/Call Ratio
|
0.459
|
0.722
|
0.802
|
< 0.6
|
> 0.7
|
|
%Bulls - %Bears
|
17.6%
|
18.2%
|
13.1%
|
> 29
|
< 20
|
|
* VIX
is below its 20 day SMA – a buy signal
** VXN
is below its 20 day SMA – a buy signal
|
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily recommended
trades. The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter
and was added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has
changed since a stock passed the filter. Stocks that are down 10% or more
after being listed are removed. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price
has declined from the maximum price reached after a stock passed the filter. Stocks
that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks
that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed. More
information on filters is available on the web site. Send me an email
if you need more details.
Key
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Net Insider Buying Stock Filter
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ACAD
|
04/29/05
|
1.5%
|
ACADIA
Pharmaceuticals Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.2%
|
|
AFT
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Axesstel,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
0.0%
|
|
FTD
|
04/08/05
|
-9.8%
|
FTD Group,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Catalog & Mail Order)
|
-10.0%
|
|
FVRL
|
04/22/05
|
4.7%
|
Favrille,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.7%
|
|
INHX
|
04/08/05
|
-1.9%
|
Inhibitex,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-7.4%
|
|
IPSU
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Imperial
Sugar Company
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Food
Processing
|
0.0%
|
|
IPXLE
|
04/29/05
|
-3.4%
|
Impax
Laboratories Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-7.5%
|
|
IRN
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Rewards
Network Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
ITMN
|
04/08/05
|
9.5%
|
InterMune,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
|
MERCS
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Mercer
International Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Paper
& Paper Products
|
0.0%
|
|
MWY
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Midway
Games Inc.
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
0.0%
|
|
ONXS
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Onyx
Software Corporation
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
0.0%
|
|
OSHC
|
04/08/05
|
1.2%
|
Ocean
Shore Holding Co.
|
Financial
|
S&Ls/Savings
Banks
|
0.0%
|
|
THLD
|
05/06/05
|
-2.9%
|
Threshold
Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.9%
|
|
TRCA
|
04/29/05
|
10.4%
|
Tercica,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-13.2%
|
|
VSTA
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
VistaCare,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
0.0%
|
|
ZHNE
|
05/06/05
|
9.3%
|
Zhone
Technologies, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-1.1%
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table
3B.
Table 3B
Capital Rich Companies Filter
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ACP
|
04/08/05
|
-0.4%
|
American
Real Estate Partners, L.P.
|
Services
|
Casinos
& Gaming
|
-4.8%
|
|
ADZA
|
04/08/05
|
4.5%
|
Adeza
Biomedical Corporation
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-9.1%
|
|
CDCO
|
04/22/05
|
3.0%
|
COMDISCO
HLDG CO INC
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
0.0%
|
|
CFNB
|
05/13/05
|
2.9%
|
California First National Bancorp
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
0.0%
|
|
CLCT
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Collectors
Universe, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
EXAR
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Exar
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
0.0%
|
|
FDRY
|
04/29/05
|
6.1%
|
Foundry
Networks, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
0.0%
|
|
KEYN
|
05/13/05
|
8.1%
|
Keynote
Systems, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
MFW
|
05/13/05
|
4.6%
|
M & F
Worldwide Corp.
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-0.5%
|
|
NCTY
|
04/08/05
|
25.4%
|
The9
Limited
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-7.6%
|
|
VNUS
|
05/06/05
|
11.5%
|
VNUS
Medical Technologies, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
0.0%
|
|
WSC
|
04/08/05
|
-4.8%
|
Wesco
Financial Corporation
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-6.0%
|
|
WZEN
|
04/22/05
|
0.4%
|
Webzen
Inc. (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-1.5%
|
For the screen in
Table 3C, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30.
Table 3C
Growth Momentum Watch
List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ADVNB
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Advanta
Corp.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
0.0%
|
|
BDK
|
04/29/05
|
1.9%
|
The Black
& Decker Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-0.3%
|
|
CEDC
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Central
European Distribution
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Alcoholic)
|
0.0%
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
9.7%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
CRAI
|
03/18/05
|
7.1%
|
Charles
River Associates
Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-2.0%
|
|
ORCC
|
05/06/05
|
1.3%
|
Online
Resources Corp.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
1.3%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-3.7%
|
|
PNR
|
05/06/05
|
5.7%
|
Pentair,
Inc.
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-5.3%
|
|
PTRY
|
04/29/05
|
16.1%
|
The
Pantry, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
-2.4%
|
|
RRGB
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Red Robin
Gourmet Burgers, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
0.0%
|
|
SFY
|
04/22/05
|
11.4%
|
Swift
Energy Company
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-1.1%
|
|
SGK
|
05/13/05
|
4.6%
|
Schawk,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Printing
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
SPF
|
05/06/05
|
0.8%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-1.3%
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
-2.5%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-3.8%
|
|
TDY
|
04/29/05
|
4.9%
|
Teledyne
Technologies Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-0.8%
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
3.5%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-2.1%
|
|
WOS
|
04/01/05
|
-2.6%
|
Wolseley
plc (ADR)
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-5.6%
|
|
ZNT
|
04/15/05
|
18.6%
|
Zenith
National Insurance Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-1.2%
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30. VLCCF was removed due to a price decline.
Table 3D
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
BLSC
|
04/22/05
|
-0.2%
|
Bio-Logic
Systems Corp.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-8.6%
|
|
CAJ
|
01/31/05
|
1.4%
|
Canon Inc.
(ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-1.9%
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
3.4%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-2.0%
|
|
GMK
|
05/06/05
|
1.2%
|
Gruma S.A.
de C.V. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Food
Processing
|
0.0%
|
|
KEP
|
12/13/04
|
10.1%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-1.1%
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
2.9%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-0.3%
|
|
LFL
|
05/13/05
|
0.4%
|
Lan
Airlines S.A. (ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Airline
|
-0.6%
|
|
MKTAY
|
04/15/05
|
10.1%
|
Makita
Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-1.4%
|
|
NHY
|
04/29/05
|
-0.5%
|
Norsk
Hydro ASA (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-4.7%
|
|
NOLD
|
12/13/04
|
64.2%
|
Noland
Company
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-1.5%
|
|
NTE
|
05/06/05
|
-0.3%
|
Nam Tai
Electronics, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Electronic
Instruments & Controls
|
-2.4%
|
|
PKX
|
04/29/05
|
0.3%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-4.2%
|
|
RD
|
04/29/05
|
0.1%
|
Royal
Dutch Petroleum Company (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-2.1%
|
|
SAB
|
05/13/05
|
-0.8%
|
Grupo Casa
Saba, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Personal
& Household Products
|
-0.8%
|
|
SC
|
04/29/05
|
-3.6%
|
Shell
Transport & Trading (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-5.1%
|
|
SHI
|
04/22/05
|
-2.0%
|
Sinopec
Shanghai Petrochemical Co. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-2.3%
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
-0.4%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-7.1%
|
|
TKS
|
04/15/05
|
-8.8%
|
Tomkins
plc (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-9.8%
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
-3.5%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-11.6%
|
|
VCP
|
05/06/05
|
1.1%
|
Votorantim
Celulose e Papel S.A (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Forestry
& Wood Products
|
0.0%
|
|
YPF
|
04/15/05
|
7.1%
|
YPF
Sociedad Anonima S.A. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-6.0%
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3E is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less. VLCCF was removed due to a price
decline.
Table 3E
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
2.9%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-2.0%
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
4.8%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
APPB
|
04/29/05
|
7.1%
|
Applebee's
Int'l, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
0.0%
|
|
CACH
|
04/29/05
|
16.9%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
-0.6%
|
|
DHI
|
04/15/05
|
20.4%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-1.5%
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
-0.6%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-5.0%
|
|
ELBO
|
01/31/05
|
66.1%
|
Electronics
Boutique Holdings Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Technology)
|
-0.1%
|
|
FOSL
|
05/13/05
|
6.0%
|
Fossil,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Jewelry
& Silverware
|
0.0%
|
|
HDI
|
04/15/05
|
9.2%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
0.0%
|
|
HELE
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Helen of
Troy Limited
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
0.0%
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
7.7%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-1.4%
|
|
LXK
|
04/29/05
|
-5.1%
|
Lexmark
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-5.1%
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
5.8%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-3.8%
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
11.8%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
0.0%
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
1.4%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
-5.0%
|
|
SRT
|
05/06/05
|
0.6%
|
StarTek,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-0.7%
|
|
STLD
|
05/20/05
|
0.0%
|
Steel
Dynamics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
0.0%
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
15.8%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
0.0%
|
|
TLK
|
04/29/05
|
6.1%
|
PT
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-1.3%
|
|
TSCO
|
04/22/05
|
3.6%
|
Tractor
Supply Company
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
-1.7%
|
The stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3F. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3F
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ATG
|
04/29/05
|
0.4%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.7%
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
3.2%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.5%
|
|
CEG
|
04/29/05
|
-1.2%
|
Constellation
Energy Group
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-3.3%
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
7.9%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-2.6%
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
18.8%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-1.1%
|
|
NFG
|
04/08/05
|
-6.8%
|
National
Fuel Gas Co.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-8.9%
|
|
OKE
|
04/15/05
|
4.6%
|
ONEOK,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.9%
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
-0.2%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-2.3%
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
1.1%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-0.9%
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
6.6%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-8.6%
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
7.1%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-0.6%
|
4.0
Results
This section lists
historical results of stock and options trades.
4.1 Stock Trades
Closed Stock
Trades
|
Stock
|
Ref Date
|
Ref. Price
|
Last
|
Action
|
P/L(%)
|
Status
|
|
TXU
|
11/22/04
|
63.98
|
$82.75
|
Long
|
29.3%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
SID
|
12/20/04
|
18.49
|
$21.95
|
Long
|
18.7%
|
Closed 04/08
|
|
AET
|
01/03/05
|
61.40
|
$71.24
|
Long
|
16.0%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
AAPL
|
01/10/05
|
34.48
|
$37.26
|
Long
|
8.1%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
TS
|
01/10/05
|
46.61
|
$54.89
|
Long
|
17.8%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
MDRX
|
02/07/05
|
11.25
|
$13.50
|
Long
|
20.0%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
VLO
|
02/07/05
|
58.26
|
$72.18
|
Long
|
23.9%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
PCO
|
02/14/05
|
53.51
|
$57.49
|
Long
|
7.4%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
BYD
|
02/18/05
|
49.96
|
$54.38
|
Long
|
8.8%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
RETK
|
03/04/05
|
8.49
|
$11.25
|
Long
|
32.5%
|
Closed 04/12
|
|
WDC
|
04/09/05
|
13.78
|
$12.67
|
Long
|
-8.1%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
ISRG
|
04/15/05
|
47.92
|
43.15
|
Long
|
-10.0%
|
Closed 04/22
|
|
WYNN
|
04/21/05
|
55.65
|
57.68
|
Short
|
-3.6%
|
Closed 04/26
|
|
UTHR
|
04/21/05
|
51.37
|
48.62
|
Long
|
-5.4%
|
Closed 05/02
|
|
DJ
|
04/15/05
|
33.98
|
33.08
|
Short
|
2.6%
|
Closed 05/02
|
|
GM
|
04/15/05
|
25.60
|
30.29
|
Short
|
-18.3%
|
Closed 05/03
|
|
VLO
|
04/21/05
|
75.13
|
67.60
|
Long
|
-10.0%
|
Closed 05/11
|
|
OPTN
|
04/15/05
|
14.09
|
13.05
|
Long
|
-7.4%
|
Closed 05/11
|
|
KWK
|
04/21/05
|
53.46
|
50.40
|
Long
|
-5.7%
|
Closed 05/16
|
|
TRI
|
04/15/05
|
50.59
|
48.82
|
Long
|
-3.5%
|
Closed 05/16
|
|
WYNN
|
05/02/05
|
52.89
|
46.81
|
Short
|
11.5%
|
Closed 05/18
|
|
Stock Advisory in 2005
|
|
Average Profit Before Expenses =
|
5.9%
|
|
Number of Trades =
|
21
|
|
Estimated broker commissions =
|
2%
|
|
Subscription expenses (April rate)
=
|
$50.0
|
|
Average Trade Size:
|
Profit After Expenses
|
|
$300.00
|
$316.84
|
|
$600.00
|
$683.69
|
|
$900.00
|
$1,050.53
|
|
$1,200.00
|
$1,417.38
|
4.2
Option Trades
Closed Options Trades
|
Stock
|
Buy
Date
|
Buy Price
|
Last
|
Action
|
P/L(%)
|
Option
|
|
URBN
|
11/23/04
|
11.50
|
$9.00
|
Sold 11/30
|
-21.7%
|
URQ FG JUN
35.00 CALL
|
|
TXU
|
11/23/04
|
11.30
|
$6.30
|
Sold 12/2
|
-44.2%
|
TXU DK APR
55.00 CALL
|
|
USG
|
11/23/04
|
8.40
|
$12.80
|
Sold 12/15
|
52.4%
|
MAY 25.00
CALL
|
|
ADSK
|
12/20/04
|
8.20
|
$9.20
|
Sold 12/23
|
12.2%
|
ADQ GN JUL
70.00 CALL
|
|
MON
|
12/20/04
|
3.80
|
$4.80
|
Sold 12/23
|
26.3%
|
MON GJ JUL
50.00 CALL
|
|
POT
|
12/20/04
|
7.00
|
$8.00
|
Sold 12/23
|
14.3%
|
POT FP JUN
80.00 CALL
|
|
TXI
|
12/20/04
|
5.50
|
$9.00
|
Sold 12/23
|
63.6%
|
TXI GL JUL
60.00 CALL
|
|
AET
|
01/07/05
|
5.70
|
$7.10
|
Sold 01/19
|
24.6%
|
AET GX JUL
135.00 CALL
|
|
CLF
|
01/07/05
|
7.30
|
$9.20
|
Sold 01/19
|
26.0%
|
CLF GJ JUL
50.00 CALL
|
|
MTH
|
01/21/05
|
6.80
|
$9.20
|
Sold 02/01
|
35.3%
|
MTH FZ JUN
62.50 CALL
|
|
BZH
|
01/31/05
|
13.70
|
$17.30
|
Sold 02/01
|
26.3%
|
BZH HJ AUG
150.00 CALL
|
|
KBH
|
01/31/05
|
9.20
|
$11.10
|
Sold 02/01
|
20.7%
|
KBH GU JUL
110.00 CALL
|
|
BHP
|
01/28/05
|
2.25
|
$2.70
|
Sold 02/01
|
20.0%
|
BHP HE AUG
25.00 CALL
|
|
X
|
01/25/05
|
5.30
|
$4.90
|
Sold 02/02
|
-7.5%
|
X GK JUL
55.00 CALL
|
|
SFI
|
01/24/05
|
0.75
|
$0.30
|
Sold 02/04
|
-60.0%
|
SFI PH APR
40.00 PUT
|
|
EBAY
|
02/07/05
|
6.80
|
$5.60
|
Sold 02/08
|
-17.6%
|
XBA SO JUL
75.00 PUT
|
|
CCJ
|
02/04/05
|
6.60
|
$10.20
|
Sold 02/11
|
54.5%
|
CCJ IG SEP
35.00 CALL
|
|
MON
|
02/04/05
|
8.00
|
$8.20
|
Sold 02/15
|
2.5%
|
MON GJ JUL
50.00 CALL
|
|
TOL
|
01/02/00
|
7.10
|
$7.30
|
Sold 02/17
|
2.8%
|
TOL IR SEP
90.00 CALL
|
|
BZH
|
02/09/05
|
14.60
|
$16.90
|
Sold 02/17
|
15.8%
|
BZH HN AUG
170.00 CALL
|
|
KBH
|
02/07/05
|
11.10
|
$10.40
|
Sold 02/18
|
-6.3%
|
KBH GC JUL
115.00 CALL
|
|
VLO
|
02/24/05
|
6.98
|
$8.70
|
Sold 03/02
|
24.6%
|
VLO IN SEP
70.00 CALL
|
|
TXU
|
02/25/05
|
3.55
|
$4.70
|
Sold 03/04
|
32.4%
|
TXU GP JUL
80.00 CALL
|
|
SWN
|
03/03/05
|
6.50
|
$5.00
|
Sold 03/11
|
-23.1%
|
SWN IL SEP
60.00 CALL
|
|
GM
|
03/09/05
|
2.20
|
$5.80
|
Sold 03/17
|
163.6%
|
GM UZ SEP
32.50 PUT
|
|
VLO
|
03/17/05
|
6.60
|
$7.50
|
Sold 03/18
|
13.6%
|
YGY AP JAN
80.00 CALL
|
|
BHP
|
02/24/05
|
2.25
|
$2.40
|
Sold 03/22
|
6.7%
|
BHP HF AUG
30.00 CALL
|
|
QQQQ
|
03/29/05
|
1.05
|
$0.85
|
Sold 03/31
|
-19.0%
|
QQQ RJ JUN
36.00 PUT
|
|
TNX
|
03/14/05
|
6.80
|
$4.80
|
Sold 04/07
|
-29.4%
|
TNX LI DEC
45.00 CALL
|
|
PCO
|
03/17/05
|
5.00
|
$6.50
|
Sold 04/12
|
30.0%
|
PCO IL SEP
60.00 CALL
|
|
VLO
|
04/04/05
|
10.30
|
$11.10
|
Sold 04/11
|
7.8%
|
YGY AP JAN
80.00 CALL
|
|
AAPL
|
04/12/05
|
4.40
|
$2.25
|
Sold 04/14
|
-48.9%
|
QAA GV JUL
42.50 CALL
|
|
PCO
|
04/19/05
|
5.70
|
$13.20
|
Sold 04/25
|
161.6%
|
PCO IL SEP
60.00 CALL
|
|
VLO
|
04/19/05
|
8.80
|
$10.50
|
Sold 04/25
|
19.3%
|
YGY AP JAN
80.00 CALL
|
|
WYNN
|
04/21/05
|
6.40
|
$5.20
|
Sold 04/26
|
-18.8%
|
UWY UK Sep 55.00 PUT
|
|
WYNN
|
04/26/05
|
2.75
|
$2.20
|
Sold 04/28
|
-20.0%
|
UWY FL JUN 60.00 call
|
|
DJ
|
04/18/05
|
2.70
|
$2.60
|
Sold 05/03
|
-3.7%
|
DJ UG SEP
35.00 PUT
|
|
UTHR
|
04/25/05
|
5.20
|
$4.70
|
Sold 05/03
|
-9.6%
|
FUH HJ AUG
50.00 CALL
|
|
VLCCF
|
05/02/05
|
2.65
|
$2.80
|
Sold 05/12
|
5.7%
|
QHF II SEP
45.00 CALL
|
|
LCAV
|
05/02/05
|
5.80
|
$4.50
|
Sold 05/13
|
-22.4%
|
JVQ LH DEC
40.00 CALL
|
|
WYNN
|
04/29/05
|
5.60
|
$11.30
|
Sold 05/17
|
101.8%
|
UWY UK Sep 55.00 PUT
|
|
Options Advisory in 2005
|
|
Average Profit Before Expenses =
|
15.0%
|
|
Number of Trades =
|
34
|
|
Estimated broker commissions =
|
2%
|
|
Subscription expenses (April rate)
=
|
$300.00
|
|
Average Trade Size:
|
Profit
After Expenses
|
|
$300.00
|
$1,196.85
|
|
$600.00
|
$2,693.71
|
|
$900.00
|
$4,190.6
|
|
$1,200.00
|
$5,687.4
|
5.0 Conclusion
Performance since the
beginning of 2005:
Average Profit Per Trade in 2005
|
Stock
Advisory
|
+5.9%
|
|
Options
Advisory
|
+15.0%
|
|
Major Indices through 05/20/05
|
|
DOW
|
-2.9%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
-5.9%
|
|
S&P500
|
-1.9%
|
|
Russell
2000
|
-6.5%
|
Appendix
Investment Conference Schedule
Below are links to
conference registration sites where you can sign up.
- 05-23-05 New York, NY -Both professional and
sophisticated private investors meet with the world's leaders in gold,
silver, precious metals, copper and oil and gas exploration and production "New York Institutional Gold Conference"
- 06-01-05 San Francisco, CA "Venture Capital
Investing Conference"
- 06-12-05 Vancouver, BC "World Gold, PGM &
Diamond Investment Conference" Resource Investment
Conferences featuring small cap opportunities in gold, diamonds, oil &
gas, industrial and emerging growth situations are being presented in
Canada. Pre-registration is complimentary to: investors who are clients of
sponsoring firms which include discount and full service brokerage houses;
subscribers of participating newsletters, sponsoring media and sponsoring
internet investment services; shareholders of participating exhibitors;
accredited investment advisors and investors who take an interest in
managing their own personal portfolios.
- 09-07-05 Las Vegas, Nevada "Gold and Precious Metals Investment Conference"
The gold and
metal resource market has demonstrated its strength and longevity,
achieving sustained growth and multi-decade highs in the last year.
Explore the shining prospects of gold, silver, copper, uranium and other
fast-rising commodities. Realize your full potential in this sustained
bull market, with Natural Resources the clear profit leaders.
- 09-29-05 Las Vegas, Nevada "Tradestation World
Users Conference" Trade Station World Conference and Expo, the premier
conference for TradeStation users, is coming to the Venetian Hotel in Las
Vegas, September 29 - October 2, 2005. Here's where you learn about how to
design your personal trading strategies, and to test those strategies
against historical data.
- 10-02-05 Toronto, Ontario "Toronto Resource Investment Conference"
- 10-30-05 New Orleans, LA "New Orleans Investment Conference"
- 11-10-05 Millbrae, CA "Biotech Investing
Conference" Continuing advances in genomics, proteomics and
enabling technologies makes the Biotech sector a favorite among private
equity investors and venture capitalists. The Biotech Investing Conference
is an industry gathering of the leading private equity investors, venture
capitalists, biotech companies, pharmaceutical companies, corporate
investors and institutional investors.
- 11-27-05 San Francisco, CA "Gold and Precious Metals Conference"
Both
professional and sophisticated private investors meet with the world's
leaders in gold, silver, precious metals, copper and oil and gas
exploration and production. The Natural Resource industry's newest
opportunities are presented, together with educational seminars, executive
panels and investment workshops led by top finance specialists, economic analysts
and newsletter editors. Admission is complimentary with pre-registration.
Conference Search