Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter

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Issue No. 78  May 29, 2006                           Prescott, Arizona                       Systems@WiserTrader.com

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1.0   Trading

     

      Volume lends perspective on recent market moves.

 

1.1 Volume

 

      Recent market declines were accompanied by slightly higher than average volume, as seen in Figure 1A.  One can infer that the S&P 500 may resume a downward move after the recent low volume bounce off its 200-day SMA.  Investors have sought to reduce risk, apparently.  A change in trading volume is critical to understanding the underpinnings of any market move.  Markets tend to be more volatile when volume is low and it is difficult to draw conclusions.  When volume is at least close to the average value, the move has more meaning. 

 

 

FIGURE 1A

 

 

      Various online portals report different volume levels for the NYSE and NASDAQ daily volumes.  For example, Yahoo.com consistently differs from corresponding data at BigCharts.com.  It is less important what absolute number you use to detect changes in volume as long as a consistent measure is used. 

 

      Intraday volume is important, as well.  Often it has occurred that strong volume in the morning  accompanied sharp rises in the major averages to be followed by lower afternoon volume with a sell off.  While it is easy to read off the volume at the end of a trading day, it is not easy to interpret intraday volume without information on how it compares with the average for that time of day.  This information is normally not supplied by online portals in an easy to understand format.

 

 

© 2006 WiserTrader.com, LLC.  Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed brokers nor licensed advisors.  Trades discussed represent recommendations made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio.  The newsletter and web site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.  While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be made in transcription.  Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser.  WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation with trading system companies. 

   

 

     An Excel spreadsheet can supply this kind of information for you.  Below in Figure 1B are two Excel charts.  The one on the left is of intraday percentage price change.  On the right are plotted deviations from average volume for the NYSE and NASDAQ.  The two charts for Friday May 26, 2006 were updated by XLQPlus at 5-minute intervals.  The day began with futures showing a higher open.  Volume ticked up well above average for the first hour.  As the day wore on, volume dropped to average by the end of the second hour and then tailed off for the rest of the day to end at about 25% to 30% below average.  This is probably typical for the Friday before a holiday weekend.

 

 

 

FIGURE 1B

 

 

      As you might have guessed, the volume at each period in the trading day is proportionally compared to its daily average.  The trading day consisting of 6 ½ hours is 390 minutes long.  At each 5-minute interval, the elapsed time in minutes is divided by 390 to arrive at a time fraction for that time of day.  The time fraction at any point in the day is assumed equal to the normal volume percent of daily average for that time of day.  The percent difference between the volume percent of daily average and the time fraction is used to plot the chart.  When the volume percent of daily average is equal to the time fraction, the deviation from average volume is zero. 

 

      An automated chart such as this helps to confirm the importance of a rise or decline at each point in the trading day.  The chart is not yet available as a download.  However, details in the form of a preliminary spreadsheet will be forwarded upon request.

 

 

2.0 Market Analysis

 

      Inflation continues to run slightly above the Fed’s comfort zone but not greatly above expectations.  This leads one to expect another ¼-point rate hike in June.  An inability of the Fed to pause its tightening stance should lead the S&P 500 to migrate lower to its long-term support level below 1,240 before it resumes a sustained rally. 

 

      Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ.  Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory.  Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500.  Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending. 

 

 

Table 2A

Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s

 

1 month

1 wk ago

2 wks ago

3 wks ago

4 wks ago

Dow Jones Industrial Index

-0.8%

1.2%

-2.1%

-1.7%

1.9%

NASDAQ Composite Index

-4.8%

0.8%

-2.2%

-4.2%

0.9%

S & P 500 Index

-2.3%

1.0%

-1.9%

-2.6%

1.2%

NYSE Composite Index

-2.7%

0.8%

-2.8%

-2.6%

1.9%

Russell 2000 Index

-4.6%

1.0%

-2.7%

-5.0%

2.3%

HGX, Phil. Housing Index

-8.5%

0.1%

-4.4%

-5.1%

0.7%

IYR, Real Estate

-2.4%

1.7%

-1.5%

-3.2%

0.7%

GLD, GOLD

0.0%

-0.7%

-7.8%

4.6%

4.5%

RKH, Banking

-4.1%

0.7%

-1.9%

-3.4%

0.6%

IYT, Transportation

0.6%

1.1%

-4.2%

-2.4%

6.4%

SMH, Semiconductors

-9.2%

-2.8%

-2.1%

-5.6%

1.1%

BBH, Biotechnology

1.6%

2.3%

0.4%

-1.9%

0.9%

OIH, Oil Infrastructure

-4.7%

2.9%

-7.4%

-4.6%

4.8%

XLE, Energy

-3.6%

2.0%

-4.8%

-3.6%

3.0%

XLU, Utilities

1.0%

1.7%

-0.5%

-2.9%

2.7%

XLB, Materials

-2.8%

1.0%

-4.6%

-2.5%

3.4%

XLI, Industrial

-1.1%

0.3%

-2.5%

-2.1%

3.3%

XLK, Technology

-5.0%

0.8%

-1.8%

-4.3%

0.3%

XLV, Healthcare

-1.4%

0.9%

-0.4%

-1.3%

-0.7%

XLF, Financials

-3.0%

1.0%

-1.8%

-2.8%

0.6%

XLP, Consumer Staples

1.1%

2.0%

-0.2%

-1.6%

1.0%

XLY, Consumer Discretionary

-1.2%

0.0%

-1.2%

-1.5%

1.5%

 

 

 

      The VIX and VXN volatility indexes are listed in Table 2B.

 

 

Table 2B

Volatility

Indicator

Current

Last Week

2 Weeks Ago

Complacent

Cautious

VIX **

14.3

17.2

14.2

< 20

> 50

VXN ***

18.6

21.0

17.1

< 30

> 70

**   Above 20 day SMA = Short-term sell signal.

*** Above 20 day SMA = Short-term sell signal.

 

 

 

      Figure 2A compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s.

 

 

FIGURE 2A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2C

Market Summary

 

Industries are listed according to the Dow Jones Classification System

 

 Major Indices 
 For the Past Week:
 Dow Jones      1.2%
 NASDAQ        -1.1%
 S&P500 Index   1.0%
 Russell 2000   1.0%
 NYSE           0.8%
 
 30 Year Bond 5.157%
 10 Year Note 5.052%
 
 Leading Industries
 For the Past Week:
 Specialized Consumer Services 
 Automobiles 
 Internet 
 Coal 
 Nonferrous Metals 
 Steel 
 Consumer Electronics 
 Mining 
 Industrial Metals 
 Automobiles & Parts 
 
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Week:
 Tires 
 Mobile Telecommunications 
 Semiconductors 
 Restaurants & Bars 
 Apparel Retailers 
 Defense 
 Specialty Retailers 
 Recreational Services 
 Travel & Tourism 
 Travel & Leisure 
 Leading Industries
 For the Past Month:
 Hotels 
 Transportation Services 
 Broadcasting & Entertainment 
 Soft Drinks 
 Automobiles 
 Beverages 
 Food & Beverage 
 Food Producers 
 Food Products 
 Media 
 
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Month:
 Platinum & Precious Metals 
 Home Construction 
 General Mining 
 Recreational Services 
 Toys 
 Forestry 
 Gold Mining 
 Forestry & Paper 
 Software 
 Travel & Tourism 
 
 Crude Oil $71.29
 
 Gold for the past 30 days:
 USD    +2.67%
 CAD    +1.26%
 CHF    +0.05%
 GBP    -0.28%
 EUR    +1.15%
 JPY    +1.44%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


3.0 Procedure

 

      The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration.  They are not necessarily trades.  Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders.  The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.

 

      Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days.  Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day.  Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.

 

      One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward.  They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline.  The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence. 

 

      A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R.  The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.

 

      The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list.  The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months.  The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow.  Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months.  More information on filters is available on the web site.

 

      A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A. 

 

 

Table 3A

Stock Filter Summary

Filter

Avg. % Change Since Listed

Avg. % Change Monday

1 Month

1 Week Ago

2 weeks Ago

3 Weeks Ago

4 Weeks Ago

Net Insider Buying

3.9%

0.2%

3.6%

4.7%

-2.1%

-0.6%

1.8%

Cash Rich Companies

2.2%

0.0%

-0.7%

-1.6%

-6.3%

2.6%

4.6%

Price to Free Cash Flow

5.0%

-0.3%

1.2%

0.2%

-2.5%

0.7%

3.0%

Growth Momentum

10.4%

1.4%

-2.6%

1.1%

-5.4%

-2.4%

4.4%

Lynch

23.3%

1.0%

-4.3%

-0.4%

-3.1%

-3.4%

2.8%

Buffett

19.9%

0.9%

-3.6%

0.6%

-3.5%

-3.8%

3.2%

Graham

5.8%

0.6%

-1.0%

2.3%

-1.9%

-2.8%

1.5%

Templeton

4.8%

0.2%

-1.6%

0.4%

-1.0%

-1.4%

0.3%

 Zweig

4.7%

0.5%

-2.2%

1.2%

-3.3%

-2.9%

3.1%

Average

8.9%

0.5%

-1.2%

1.0%

-3.2%

-1.5%

2.7%

 

 

Key

Passed Recent Filter

Price declined by half of stop loss setting

Oversold  based on  Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

Overbought based on Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

 

 

      Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

 

Table 3B

Net Insider Buying Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

EQS

04/13/06

0.0%

Equus II Incorporated

Financial

Investment Services

-5.9%

-1.8%

-74

-69

LXU

12/23/05

32.1%

LSB Industries, Inc.

Basic Materials

Chemical Manufacturing

-6.8%

-1.4%

-54

-54

CWEI

05/12/06

0.0%

Clayton Williams Energy, Inc.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

0.0%

-1.5%

-56

-54

NAHC

05/12/06

-0.9%

National Atlantic Holdings Corporation

Financial

Insurance (Property & Casualty)

-2.3%

0.5%

-68

-50

ACME

05/12/06

-4.0%

ACME Communications, Inc.

Services

Broadcasting & Cable TV

-4.0%

2.1%

-22

-39

RGNC

05/26/06

0.0%

Regency Energy Partners LP

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

0.0%

-1.9%

-33

-39

MOCC

05/26/06

0.0%

Moscow CableCom Corp.

Services

Broadcasting & Cable TV

0.0%

24.8%

-8

-8

 

 

      Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

 

Table 3C

Capital Rich Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

HRAY

05/19/06

-0.3%

Hurray! Holding Co., Ltd. (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

-0.3%

-22.3%

-94

-91

WSC

03/11/06

-2.4%

Wesco Financial Corporation

Conglomerates

Conglomerates

-4.4%

-0.6%

-76

-76

SCIX

04/07/06

7.7%

Scailex Corp., Ltd.

Technology

Computer Networks

-3.4%

4.5%

-32

-34

ACTS

05/05/06

3.9%

Actions Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (ADR)

Technology

Semiconductors

-3.9%

15.5%

-23

-28

 

 

      Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5.  Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.

 

 

Table 3D

Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

TGS

05/26/06

0.0%

Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A (ADR)

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

0.0%

-2.8%

-64

-80

RHD

05/19/06

1.5%

R.H. Donnelley Corp.

Services

Advertising

0.0%

1.5%

-72

-62

FIS

05/12/06

0.8%

Fidelity National Information Services

Services

Business Services

-0.5%

0.9%

-73

-59

KWD

03/04/06

22.7%

Kellwood Company

Consumer Cyclical

Apparel/Accessories

-3.2%

1.8%

-53

-43

MFW

05/19/06

0.1%

M & F Worldwide Corp.

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Beverages (Non-Alcoholic)

-1.7%

0.1%

-26

-34

 

 

      For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

 

 

Table 3E

Peter Lynch Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

TM

12/13/04

46.9%

Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR)

Consumer Cyclical

Auto & Truck Manufacturers

-10.7%

-5.9%

-77

-77

AZN

02/03/06

13.0%

AstraZeneca PLC (ADR)

Health Care

Major Drugs

-5.0%

-4.0%

-75

-75

PKX

02/17/06

17.9%

POSCO (ADR)

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-11.9%

-5.3%

-73

-73

CAE

04/21/06

-4.9%

Cascade Corporation

Capital Goods

Misc. Capital Goods

-7.7%

-5.5%

-68

-68

SKM

02/07/05

27.3%

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

-7.4%

-3.9%

-64

-64

KOF

04/29/05

36.7%

Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Beverages (Non-Alcoholic)

-9.3%

-3.0%

-60

-60

BTI

08/12/05

26.1%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-2.8%

-0.6%

-51

-51

 

 

      For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

 

Table 3F

Growth Momentum Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

HCC

10/21/05

13.6%

HCC Insurance Holdings, Inc.

Financial

Insurance (Property & Casualty)

-11.2%

-7.8%

-90

-90

CHE

05/06/05

35.0%

Chemed Corporation

Services

Business Services

-14.5%

-3.8%

-87

-87

CSR

05/12/06

-8.5%

Credit Suisse Group (ADR)

Financial

Insurance (Life)

-8.5%

-6.0%

-81

-81

JEF

04/21/06

-9.6%

Jefferies Group, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-12.4%

-9.7%

-72

-72

ENDP

02/17/06

-0.7%

Endo Pharmaceuticals

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-11.5%

2.9%

-72

-72

APC

02/10/06

0.0%

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-12.5%

-5.3%

-72

-71

BEN

11/04/05

-0.8%

Franklin Resources, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-12.7%

-2.9%

-64

-63

KCS

05/12/06

-4.2%

KCS Energy, Inc.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-4.2%

-3.1%

-62

-62

BHP

09/09/05

39.6%

BHP Billiton Limited (ADR)

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-10.4%

-3.3%

-68

-61

SYT

04/08/05

29.3%

Syngenta AG (ADR)

Basic Materials

Chemical Manufacturing

-10.2%

-0.5%

-60

-60

GS

04/21/06

-7.8%

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-7.8%

-4.6%

-57

-57

ET

10/21/05

36.2%

E*TRADE FINANCIAL Corporation

Financial

Investment Services

-11.7%

-2.1%

-56

-56

MDR

05/12/06

-3.1%

McDermott International

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-3.1%

10.2%

-46

-46

GRMN

03/03/06

26.9%

Garmin Ltd.

Technology

Communications Equipment

-3.9%

8.7%

-37

-37

 

 

      The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term.  Two requirements were added.  One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities.  The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.

 

 

Table 3G

Warren Buffett Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

PSUN

05/05/06

-9.9%

Pacific Sunwear of CA

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-11.0%

-4.4%

-85

-81

RCII

10/21/05

52.8%

Rent-A-Center, Inc

Services

Rental & Leasing

-12.5%

-10.7%

-81

-81

MTH

05/12/06

-8.8%

Meritage Homes Corporation

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-8.8%

-14.1%

-43

-79

APA

05/12/06

-6.1%

Apache Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-6.1%

-9.0%

-48

-77

NAT

05/12/06

-3.9%

Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited

Transportation

Water Transportation

-3.9%

-7.9%

-78

-75

CCRT

12/30/05

0.3%

CompuCredit Corporation

Financial

Consumer Financial Services

-8.3%

-3.5%

-73

-73

RS

04/15/05

117.4%

Reliance Steel & Aluminum

Basic Materials

Misc. Fabricated Products

-14.4%

-6.2%

-72

-72

STR

05/26/06

0.0%

Questar Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

0.0%

-10.5%

-71

-71

ANF

03/03/06

0.4%

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-7.8%

-1.3%

-71

-71

RI

09/02/05

33.2%

Ruby Tuesday, Inc.

Services

Restaurants

-10.3%

-3.3%

-59

-59

UNT

03/03/06

4.4%

Unit Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-8.2%

3.9%

-45

-57

OXY

03/03/06

2.9%

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-8.8%

-4.9%

-57

-57

ABFS

04/29/05

34.4%

Arkansas Best Corporation

Transportation

Trucking

-7.2%

-1.3%

-57

-57

AH

02/03/06

16.8%

Armor Holdings, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-8.6%

-3.4%

-57

-57

AEOS

03/10/06

9.6%

American Eagle Outfitters

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-5.1%

-0.5%

-55

-55

BTI

12/30/05

12.8%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-2.8%

-0.6%

-51

-51

JBHT

03/31/06

14.3%

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

-4.7%

3.3%

-40

-45

NKE

09/23/05

-0.3%

NIKE, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Footwear

-11.4%

-1.0%

-37

-37

NUE

04/15/05

130.3%

Nucor Corporation

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-5.8%

3.3%

-34

-34

HDI

10/14/05

3.3%

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Recreational Products

-8.9%

-0.1%

-32

-32

FNF

10/21/05

14.7%

Fidelity National Financial

Financial

Insurance (Property & Casualty)

-3.6%

0.0%

-28

-28

 

 

 

      Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H.  A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less. 

 

 

Table 3H

Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

WPS

05/26/06

0.0%

WPS Resources Corp

Utilities

Electric Utilities

0.0%

-2.1%

-75

-75

VVC

03/03/06

0.7%

Vectren Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-5.0%

-2.2%

-58

-58

SRE

01/10/05

25.0%

Sempra Energy

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-7.3%

-1.8%

-52

-52

OKE

11/11/05

18.3%

ONEOK, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-5.6%

-3.6%

-51

-51

ATO

04/01/05

-0.8%

Atmos Energy Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-10.2%

0.6%

-47

-47

WGL

12/23/05

-5.9%

WGL Holdings, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-8.8%

-2.6%

-45

-45

EON

03/10/06

6.2%

E.ON AG (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-4.6%

-4.1%

-45

-45

PGN

01/10/05

-4.7%

Progress Energy, Inc.

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-8.2%

-1.8%

-43

-43

ATG

10/21/05

8.1%

AGL Resources Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-1.6%

1.2%

-32

-32

UGI

12/30/05

12.5%

UGI Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-2.2%

3.5%

-30

-31

UU

06/10/05

4.4%

United Utilities PLC (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-0.4%

1.6%

-17

-17

 

 

 

      Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I. 

 

 

Table 3I

John Templeton Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

SPLS

05/26/06

0.0%

Staples, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

0.0%

-9.3%

-94

-91

SNV

05/27/05

-9.8%

Synovus Financial Corp.

Financial

Regional Banks

-12.0%

-5.8%

-90

-90

LEN

05/19/06

0.5%

Lennar Corporation

Capital Goods

Construction Services

0.0%

0.5%

-88

-87

ORLY

01/20/06

2.3%

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-14.4%

-6.0%

-85

-84

UNH

05/26/06

0.0%

UnitedHealth Group Inc.

Financial

Insurance (Accident & Health)

0.0%

-13.3%

-82

-82

GTRC

03/03/06

0.5%

Guitar Center, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-8.1%

-7.1%

-68

-68

SPF

05/12/06

2.1%

Standard Pacific Corp.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

0.0%

-2.6%

-69

-67

MMM

05/12/06

-3.1%

3M Company

Conglomerates

Conglomerates

-3.7%

-1.8%

-64

-64

GBCI

05/05/06

-3.5%

Glacier Bancorp, Inc.

Financial

Regional Banks

-3.5%

-2.0%

-59

-59

LOW

11/18/05

-6.2%

Lowe's Companies, Inc.

Services

Retail (Home Improvement)

-10.9%

-1.9%

-57

-57

DGX

08/19/05

12.5%

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-4.1%

0.9%

-31

-56

CHD

11/18/05

9.8%

Church & Dwight Co., Inc.

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Personal & Household Products

-3.3%

0.0%

-55

-55

CPS

05/27/05

11.0%

ChoicePoint Inc.

Services

Business Services

-3.9%

1.0%

-47

-47

AMSG

10/14/05

11.7%

AmSurg Corp.

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-4.5%

0.6%

-40

-40

EWBC

12/30/05

9.2%

East West Bancorp, Inc.

Financial

Regional Banks

-2.6%

0.5%

-58

-40

HHS

10/28/05

6.8%

Harte-Hanks, Inc.

Services

Printing & Publishing

-9.3%

-0.4%

-38

-38

HDI

02/24/06

-3.3%

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Recreational Products

-4.7%

2.3%

-32

-32

MIK

12/30/05

9.4%

Michaels Stores, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-1.2%

2.2%

-26

-28

GISX

12/30/05

16.2%

Global Imaging Systems, Inc.

Technology

Office Equipment

-1.2%

7.7%

-16

-16

JNJ

02/17/06

2.7%

Johnson & Johnson

Health Care

Major Drugs

-0.5%

1.3%

-8

-8

FLIR

04/28/06

8.0%

FLIR Systems, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

0.0%

8.0%

-3

-3

EDMC

12/16/05

28.8%

Education Management Corp

Services

Schools

0.0%

1.0%

-2

-2

 

 

      Optionable stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J. 

 

 

Table 3J

Martin Zweig Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

PCP

05/12/06

-8.6%

Precision Castparts Corp.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-8.6%

-8.4%

-92

-92

POOL

06/10/05

27.4%

Pool Corporation

Consumer Cyclical

Recreational Products

-12.5%

-6.7%

-80

-80

UCBH

04/13/06

-7.2%

UCBH Holdings, Inc.

Financial

Regional Banks

-9.6%

-0.7%

-76

-76

RRC

05/05/06

-8.1%

Range Resources Corp.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-10.1%

-4.4%

-74

-74

MINI

03/03/06

17.2%

Mobile Mini, Inc.

Services

Business Services

-9.7%

-4.9%

-73

-73

HTLD

01/27/06

2.9%

Heartland Express, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

-11.2%

-6.9%

-73

-73

STRA

01/13/06

12.3%

Strayer Education, Inc.

Services

Schools

-7.4%

-2.2%

-72

-72

JEF

04/21/06

-9.6%

Jefferies Group, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-12.4%

-9.7%

-72

-72

ANF

04/13/06

3.4%

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-7.8%

-1.3%

-71

-71

MDU

01/27/06

0.5%

MDU Resources Group, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-6.0%

-5.0%

-70

-70

SII

04/28/06

-4.5%

Smith International, Inc.

Energy

Oil Well Services & Equipment

-9.6%

-4.5%

-68

-68

MRO

04/28/06

-4.2%

Marathon Oil Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-7.5%

-4.2%

-66

-66

BEN

10/28/05

4.4%

Franklin Resources, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-12.7%

-2.9%

-64

-63

FSH

05/05/06

0.5%

Fisher Scientific International Inc.

Technology

Scientific & Technical Instruments

-3.9%

5.0%

-63

-62

LSTR

02/10/06

0.4%

Landstar System, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

-10.0%

1.6%

-60

-60

RARE

05/19/06

-2.2%

RARE Hospitality International, Inc.

Services

Restaurants

-2.2%

1.7%

-55

-54

ERF

05/05/06

-3.6%

ENERPLUS RESOURCES FUND SR G TR UNITS

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-4.8%

-2.3%

-37

-37

GRMN

02/24/06

40.1%

Garmin Ltd.

Technology

Communications Equipment

-3.9%

8.7%

-37

-37

ESI

11/04/05

10.1%

ITT Educational Services

Services

Schools

-0.4%

2.5%

-7

-7

EDMC

02/10/06

22.9%

Education Management Corp

Services

Schools

0.0%

1.0%

-2

-2

 

 

 

4.0           Results & Conclusions

 

      This section highlights trading performance.  Only a summary is provided here to save space.  Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the website.

 

 

Major Indices Year to Date

Relative to SMA 200

200 Day High Close

Relative to High

200 Day Low Close

Relative to Low

 

12/30/05

5/27/06

% Chg

Today

Last Week

DOW