
______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 29 – June 6, 2005 Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
The John Templeton Value filter and the Martin Zweig Growth filter added last week are looking promising. As we near the mid point of 2005, it’s a good time to report how stock and options trading have faired with respect to goals and objectives. But first I want to say a word about building confidence in your trading methods.
It is worthwhile to make a conscious effort to instill confidence in the methods used for trading. Confidence in your method promotes stability by reducing the number of trades and conserving funds that would otherwise be used in excessive broker fees. It promotes efficiency in that less time and energy are spent worrying. Worry is replaced by systematic inspection with the knowledge of what needs checking and what doesn’t. The more confident you are in a method, the better you will learn it. Confidence is created gradually after a sufficient number of cases for a given trading system have been observed and you can see how it holds up. Thus, it can not be a case of blind faith. Careful observation of system limits need to be made. These limitations tell you when to stay out of the markets and the conditions for which a different system is needed. The process involves understanding the causes of gains and losses along the way. All this takes time. There is no substitute for this time absorbing process for any given trading system.
One of the best confidence builders can be found in money management that is used to avoid large draw-downs by appropriate selection of trailing stops and position size. Another is setting realistic achievable goals. Yet another is restricting yourself to the system you know until you know it thoroughly before expanding to other systems. Although it may seem boring, you should select an approach that can be repeated successfully over and over again. At the same time, confidence in a single trading method gives you a great deal of freedom.
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice. While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation with trading system companies.
Option trading has met objectives so far this year. The published goal is to increase total risk capital by 6% at a compounded monthly rate. I know, 6% a month doesn’t seem very aggressive for options trading. But we need a goal that is easily met. Compounded monthly it works out to just over 100% a year. If one doubles his total risk capital each year for 4 years, he multiplies it by a factor of 16. Sticking to this plan leads to a significant accomplishment.
The trick is to do it without the kind of over trading that can result in large draw downs. We pursue our goal while committing only 10% of total risk capital to any single trade. This requires the average profit per trade to run around 14%. We are running slightly above that.
Every month in 2005 has been profitable, some better than others. February was the worst month (+7%) and March was the best (+28%). Table 1 compares the target profit with monthly and cumulative actual profit as a percentage of total risk capital. A graphical representation of columns 2 and 5 is presented in Figure 1.
Table 1 - Options Trading for 2005
|
Month |
Target |
Profit per Trade for the Month |
Profit as % of Total Capital |
Actual Cumulative Profit as % of Total Capital |
|
January |
6% |
25% |
11% |
11% |
|
February |
12% |
7% |
3% |
14% |
|
March |
19% |
28% |
12% |
28% |
|
April |
26% |
19% |
8% |
39% |
|
May |
34% |
14% |
6% |
47% |

FIGURE 1
Members who commit up to 20% of risk capital per trade have nearly met their 100% goal after just a few months of trading. We continue to recommend the standard 10% of risk capital per trade.
The goal for stocks is equally modest. The goal is to increase total investment capital by 1.88% at a compounded monthly rate. This will increase total capital by about 25% a year and double it in about three years. The long term average for the S&P 500 is a positive 10% a year, which doubles one’s capital in 7.25 years.
Once again, we want to avoid the kind of over trading that can result in large draw downs. We commit only 10% of total capital to any single trade while using a -15% trailing stop. The way this works is by maintaining a small portfolio of about 10 stocks while updating on average 1 stock per week. Meeting the target requires the average profit per trade to run around 4.34%. It currently runs at 5.1%. The current stock portfolio of open trades shows a profit of 4.5%. However, after two months of operation, compounded total profits based on closed trades, were 3.7% as compared with the target of 3.8% after the second month.
Figure 2 compares the target profit with cumulative actual profit as a percentage of total capital. Mid April to mid May was a difficult period.

FIGURE 2
If you want a free month of either the stock or options advisory, just send an email to Systems@WiserTrader.com by June 6, 2005 with a brief constructive comment or testimonial about the quality of this newsletter. Be sure to include whether you prefer the stock advisory or the options advisory. Your email gives WiserTrader.com permission to use your name on the website, but not your email address. All constructive responses, positive or negative, will earn a free month of advisory service, whether or not it is used on the site. Your input is appreciated.
This week’s economic data, on balance, reflected economic growth at a slower pace than in recent months. That didn't disturb the stock market. Slower economic growth was generally accepted as probable, but now it comes with the benefit of perhaps an improved interest rate outlook. If short-term rates don't go much higher, and long-term rates stay near present levels, current stock valuations look all that much better.
The market has come back solidly the past six weeks. It has come off its lows from the six-month trading range. Trading volume has been moderate, however, and there isn't that much enthusiasm for a possible summer rally. Interest rates won't come down much further. Oil prices might not either. Slower economic growth means slower profit growth. There are plenty of worries to offset the support from overall good valuations on the market.
The stock market may be looking at some slow summer months in which a trading range mentality persists. Industry leaders in Table 2 rank from highest to lowest. Relative strength is given in Table 3 and VTO market sentiment in Table 4.
Table 2 - Market Summary
Major Indices:
Dow Jones -0.8%
NASDAQ -0.2%
S&P500 Index -0.2%
Russell 2000 +0.6%
30 Year Bond 4.281%
10 Year Note 3.979%
Industry Leaders
For the Past Week:
Distillers & Vintners
Coal
Mobile Telecommunications
Hotels
General Mining
Gambling
Heavy Construction
Clothing & Accessories
Nonferrous Metals
Mining
Industry Leaders
For the Past Month:
Internet
Home Construction
Real Estate Holding & Develop
Heavy Construction
Semiconductors
Telecommunications Equip
Hotels
Technology Hardware & Equip
Coal
Electrical Components & Equip
Crude Oil $55.03
Gold for the past 30 days:
USD -1.31%
CAD -0.96%
CHF +3.07%
GBP +3.03%
EUR +4.38%
JPY -1.22%
Table 3
Relative Strength Index
|
|
5 Day RSI |
5 Week RSI |
|
DOW |
Neutral |
Neutral |
|
S&P 500 |
Neutral |
Neutral |
|
NASDAQ |
Neutral |
Neutral |
Table 4
VTO Report on Market Sentiment Indicators
|
Sentiment Indicator |
Value |
Last Week |
2 Weeks Ago |
Complacent |
Cautious |
|
VIX ** |
12.15 |
12.24 |
13.14 |
< 20 |
> 50 |
|
VXN *** |
15.59 |
15.00 |
15.88 |
< 30 |
> 70 |
|
Put/Call Ratio |
0.611 |
0.574 |
0.459 |
< 0.6 |
> 0.7 |
|
%Bulls - %Bears |
22.8% |
20.6% |
17.6% |
> 29% |
< 20% |
|
** Below 20 day SMA = Buy signal. *** Below 20 day SMA = Buy signal. |
|||||
Taking a look from the top down in Table 5, the major averages paused this week to take a look at what oil is doing. Utilities got a boost from the downward movement in long term interest rates. Other than that, not much happened. However, it appears that the market is delicately balanced and could tip on any bad news.
Table 5
Index Tracking Stocks, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
Industry or Sector |
1 month |
1 wk ago |
2 wks ago |
3 wks ago |
4 wks ago |
|
SPY (S&P 500) |
2.6% |
-0.1% |
0.9% |
2.9% |
-1.2% |
|
DIA (DOW) |
1.2% |
-0.6% |
0.7% |
2.9% |
-1.7% |
|
QQQQ (NASDAQ) |
6.2% |
-0.3% |
1.5% |
3.9% |
1.1% |
|
IWM (Russell 2000) |
4.1% |
0.5% |
1.4% |
4.3% |
-2.1% |
|
GOLD |
-0.8% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
-0.7% |
-1.3% |
|
Transportation |
3.1% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
6.3% |
-3.5% |
|
Semiconductors |
8.7% |
0.8% |
2.0% |
3.1% |
2.5% |
|
Biotechnology |
5.6% |
-0.3% |
2.6% |
2.0% |
1.2% |
|
Banking (Regional) |
1.0% |
-0.4% |
-0.8% |
3.6% |
-1.3% |
|
Real Estate |
3.9% |
1.5% |
-2.1% |
4.7% |
-0.1% |
|
Oil |
4.1% |
2.2% |
6.1% |
2.4% |
-6.2% |
|
Energy |
3.7% |
1.5% |
5.9% |
2.2% |
-5.6% |
|
Materials |
-2.3% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
3.3% |
-6.1% |
|
Financials |
1.8% |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
3.6% |
-1.8% |
|
Utilities |
2.2% |
1.5% |
0.6% |
2.4% |
-2.2% |
|
Healthcare |
0.3% |
-0.4% |
-0.3% |
1.3% |
-0.3% |
|
Industrial |
2.2% |
-0.4% |
0.2% |
3.7% |
-1.4% |
|
Technology |
5.9% |
-0.3% |
1.4% |
3.5% |
1.2% |
|
Consumer Staples |
1.2% |
-0.2% |
-0.6% |
2.9% |
-1.0% |
|
Consumer Discretionary |
3.9% |
-0.2% |
0.7% |
4.6% |
-1.3% |
Figures 3 and 4 are becoming a regular feature. Figure 3 compares index tracking stocks for the major averages with Sector SPDR’s. Figure 4 compares index tracking stocks with key industry ETF’s and the five leading ETF’s for the week. Key industry ETF’s are Biotech and Semiconductors which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Real Estate are important indicators of the health of the currency and the economy in general, respectively.
Of the five leading ETF’s, EWZ Brazil and ILF the Latin American 40 look good. IIH Internet Infrastructure, RWR REIT’s and OIH Oil service holders have been rising for a couple of weeks now.
As an FYI, the dozen or so weakest ETF’s for the past week were: EWN iShares MSCI-Netherlands (-1.4%), IEV iShares S&P Europe 350 (-1.5%), EWP iShares MSCI-Spain (-1.6%), EWK iShares MSCI-Belgium(-1.7%), EWI iShares MSCI-Italy (-1.8%), EWG iShares MSCI-Germany (-1.9%), EZU iShares MSCI-EMU(_2.0%), FEZ streetTRACKS Dow Jones Euro STOXX 50 (-2.1%), IBB iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (-2.5% surprise!), EWD iShares MSCI-Sweden (-2.7%) and EZA iShares MSCI-South Africa (-5.2%).

FIGURE 3

FIGURE 4
The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily recommended trades. The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since a stock first passed the filter. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed.
The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached after a stock first passed the filter. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed. More information on filters is available on the web site. Send an email if you need more details.
Key
|
Passed Recent Filter |
Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3A. These stocks should also appear in one of the Master Trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.
Table 3A
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
|
ACAD |
04/29/05 |
17.3% |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-4.4% |
|
AFT |
05/20/05 |
0.8% |
Axesstel, Inc. |
Technology |
Communications Equipment |
-3.2% |
|
AFT |
05/20/05 |
0.8% |
Axesstel, Inc. |
Technology |
Communications Equipment |
-3.2% |
|
AGCC |
06/03/05 |
0.0% |
Anchor Glass Container Corporation |
Basic Materials |
Containters & Packaging |
0.0% |
|
ASPV |
05/27/05 |
1.7% |
Aspreva Pharmaceuticals Corporation |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
0.0% |
|
FTD |
04/08/05 |
-8.6% |
FTD Group, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Catalog & Mail Order) |
-8.8% |
|
FVRL |
04/22/05 |
2.1% |
Favrille, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-5.1% |
|
INHX |
04/08/05 |
-5.5% |
Inhibitex, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-10.7% |
|
IPSU |
05/20/05 |
4.0% |
Imperial Sugar Company |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Food Processing |
0.0% |
|
IPXLE |
04/29/05 |
0.9% |
Impax Laboratories Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-3.4% |
|
IRN |
05/20/05 |
2.1% |
Rewards Network Inc. |
Services |
Business Services |
0.0% |
|
ITMN |
04/08/05 |
9.5% |
InterMune, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-3.1% |
|
KIRK |
05/27/05 |
0.9% |
Kirkland's, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-1.1% |
|
MERCS |
05/20/05 |
-1.1% |
Mercer International Inc. |
Basic Materials |
Paper & Paper Products |
-1.1% |
|
MWY |
05/20/05 |
-0.8% |
Midway Games Inc. |
Technology |
Software & Programming |
-1.1% |
|
ONXS |
05/20/05 |
19.7% |
Onyx Software Corporation |
Technology |
Software & Programming |
-0.7% |
|
OSHC |
04/08/05 |
6.0% |
Ocean Shore Holding Co. |
Financial |
S&Ls/Savings Banks |
0.0% |
|
TAGS |
05/27/05 |
12.9% |
Tarrant Apparel Group |
Consumer Cyclical |
Apparel/Accessories |
0.0% |
|
THLD |
05/06/05 |
8.0% |
Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-0.4% |
|
TRCA |
04/29/05 |
12.3% |
Tercica, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-11.7% |
|
VSTA |
05/20/05 |
10.6% |
VistaCare, Inc. |
Health Care |
Healthcare Facilities |
-0.4% |
|
ZHNE |
05/06/05 |
3.4% |
Zhone Technologies, Inc. |
Technology |
Communications Equipment |
-11.6% |
Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the Master Trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.
Table 3B
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
|
ACP |
04/08/05 |
1.4% |
American Real Estate Partners, L.P. |
Services |
Casinos & Gaming |
-3.1% |
|
ADZA |
04/08/05 |
-0.4% |
Adeza Biomedical Corporation |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-13.4% |
|
CDCO |
04/22/05 |
3.0% |
COMDISCO HLDG CO INC |
Services |
Rental & Leasing |
0.0% |
|
CFNB |
05/13/05 |
15.6% |
California First National Bancorp |
Services |
Rental & Leasing |
0.0% |
|
CLCT |
05/20/05 |
-6.0% |
Collectors Universe, Inc. |
Services |
Business Services |
-6.0% |
|
DITC |
06/03/05 |
0.0% |
Ditech Communications |
Technology |
Communications Equipment |
0.0% |
|
EXAR |
05/20/05 |
10.5% |
Exar Corporation |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
-1.8% |
|
EXM |
05/27/05 |
9.2% |
Excel Maritime Carriers |
Transportation |
Water Transportation |
0.0% |
|
FDRY |
04/29/05 |
11.9% |
Foundry Networks, Inc. |
Technology |
Communications Equipment |
-2.2% |
|
HWG |
06/03/05 |
0.0% |
The Hallwood Group Incorporated |
Consumer Cyclical |
Textiles - Non-Apparel |
0.0% |
|
KEYN |
05/13/05 |
12.4% |
Keynote Systems, Inc. |
Technology |
Computer Services |
-2.3% |
|
MFW |
05/13/05 |
3.3% |
M & F Worldwide Corp. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Beverages (Non-Alcoholic) |
-1.8% |
|
NCTY |
04/08/05 |
32.0% |
The9 Limited |
Services |
Business Services |
-2.6% |
|
VNUS |
05/06/05 |
19.6% |
VNUS Medical Technologies, Inc. |
Health Care |
Medical Equipment & Supplies |
-3.8% |
|
WSC |
04/08/05 |
-3.5% |
Wesco Financial Corporation |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-4.7% |
|
WZEN |
04/22/05 |
1.3% |
Webzen Inc. (ADR) |
Technology |
Computer Services |
-3.3% |
For the screen in Table 3C, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having P/E’s greater than 30.
Table 3C
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
|
ADVNB |
05/20/05 |
-0.8% |
Advanta Corp. |
Financial |
Consumer Financial Services |
-1.2% |
|
BDK |
04/29/05 |
5.4% |
The Black & Decker Corporation |
Consumer Cyclical |
Appliances & Tools |
0.0% |
|
CHE |
05/06/05 |
8.6% |
Chemed Corporation |
Services |
Business Services |
-1.2% |
|
CRAI |
03/18/05 |
10.4% |
Charles River Associates Incorporated |
Services |
Business Services |
-1.8% |
|
HOV |
06/03/05 |
0.0% |
Hovnanian Enterprises |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
|
ORCC |
05/06/05 |
12.7% |
Online Resources Corp. |
Technology |
Computer Services |
0.0% |
|
OSK |
03/12/05 |
-0.5% |
Oshkosh Truck Corporation |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-5.4% |
|
PNR |
05/06/05 |
6.0% |
Pentair, Inc. |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-5.0% |
|
PTRY |
04/29/05 |
12.6% |
The Pantry, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Grocery) |
-6.8% |
|
SFY |
04/22/05 |
24.5% |
Swift Energy Company |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
|
SGK |
05/13/05 |
18.6% |
Schawk, Inc. |
Services |
Printing Services |
-0.8% |
|
SPF |
05/06/05 |
6.5% |
Standard Pacific Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-2.6% |
|
SYT |
04/08/05 |
-1.6% |
Syngenta AG (ADR) |
Basic Materials |
Chemical Manufacturing |
-3.0% |
|
TDY |
04/29/05 |
2.1% |
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated |
Services |
Business Services |
-3.4% |
|
UNH |
04/15/05 |
8.5% |
UnitedHealth Group Inc. |
Financial |
Insurance (Accident & Health) |
0.0% |
|
WOS |
04/01/05 |
-2.0% |
Wolseley plc (ADR) |
Capital Goods |
Misc. Capital Goods |
-5.1% |
|
ZNT |
04/15/05 |
14.5% |
Zenith National Insurance Corp. |
Financial |
Insurance (Property & Casualty) |
-4.6% |
For the Peter Lynch screen in Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having P/E’s greater than 30. NOLD has not been trading and was removed.
Table 3D
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
|
BLSC |
04/22/05 |
-2.1% |
Bio-Logic Systems Corp. |
Health Care |
Medical Equipment & Supplies |
-10.3% |
|
CAJ |
01/31/05 |
3.5% |
Canon Inc. (ADR) |
Technology |
Computer Peripherals |
-1.4% |
|
CHL |
03/18/05 |
6.9% |
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR) |
Services |
Communications Services |
-2.6% |
|
GMK |
05/06/05 |
18.8% |
Gruma S.A. de C.V. (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Food Processing |
0.0% |
|
KEP |
12/13/04 |
11.1% |
Korea Electric Power Corporation (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-1.3% |
|
KOF |
04/29/05 |
3.8% |
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Beverages (Non-Alcoholic) |
-1.5% |
|
LFL |
05/13/05 |
4.7% |
Lan Airlines S.A. (ADR) |
Transportation |
Airline |
-0.8% |
|
MKTAY |
04/15/05 |
11.1% |
Makita Corporation (ADR) |
Consumer Cyclical |
Appliances & Tools |
-3.7% |
|
NHY |
04/29/05 |
5.0% |
Norsk Hydro ASA (ADR) |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-1.1% |
|
NTE |
05/06/05 |
-0.5% |
Nam Tai Electronics, Inc. |
Technology |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
-2.6% |
|
PKX |
04/29/05 |
-0.6% |
POSCO (ADR) |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
-5.0% |
|
RD |
04/29/05 |
1.9% |
Royal Dutch Petroleum Company (ADR) |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-0.8% |
|
SAB |
05/13/05 |
-3.1% |
Grupo Casa Saba, S.A. (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Personal & Household Products |
-3.5% |
|
SC |
04/29/05 |
-1.3% |
Shell Transport & Trading (ADR) |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-2.9% |
|
SHI |
06/03/05 |
0.0% |
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co. (ADR) |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
|
SKM |
02/07/05 |
6.6% |
SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (ADR) |
Services |
Communications Services |
-0.6% |
|
TKS |
04/15/05 |
-3.3% |
Tomkins plc (ADR) |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-4.3% |
|
TM |
12/13/04 |
-4.2% |
Toyota Motor Corporation (ADR) |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-12.2% |
|
TMX |
06/03/05 |
0.0% |
Telefonos de Mexico, S.A. (ADR) |
Services |
Communications Services |
0.0% |
|
TP |
05/27/05 |
-3.4% |
TNT N.V. (ADR) |
Transportation |
Trucking |
-3.4% |
|
VCP |
05/06/05 |
2.4% |
Votorantim Celulose e Papel S.A (ADR) |
Basic Materials |
Forestry & Wood Products |
-0.2% |
|
VLCCF |
06/03/05 |
0.0% |
Knightsbridge Tankers Limited |
Transportation |
Water Transportation |
0.0% |
|
YPF |
04/15/05 |
6.4% |
YPF Sociedad Anonima S.A. (ADR) |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-6.6% |
The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3E is for the intermediate to long term. Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3E
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
|
ABFS |
04/29/05 |
3.8% |
Arkansas Best Corporation |
Transportation |
Trucking |
-2.2% |
|
ACS |
04/29/05 |
5.2% |
Affiliated Computer Services |
Technology |
Computer Services |
-3.1% |
|
APPB |
04/29/05 |
10.0% |
Applebee's Int'l, Inc. |
Services |
Restaurants |
-1.4% |
|
CACH |
04/29/05 |
27.3% |
Cache, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-4.0% |
|
DHI |
04/15/05 |
30.3% |
D.R. Horton Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-2.1% |
|
DSPG |
02/07/05 |
-6.7% |
DSP Group, Inc. |
Technology |
Communications Equipment |
-10.9% |
|
ELBO |
01/31/05 |
73.5% |
Electronics Boutique Holdings Corp. |
Services |
Retail (Technology) |
0.0% |
|
FOSL |
05/13/05 |
9.6% |
Fossil, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Jewelry & Silverware |
-0.5% |
|
HDI |
04/15/05 |
5.7% |
Harley-Davidson, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Recreational Products |
-3.2% |
|
HELE |
05/20/05 |
-4.1% |
Helen of Troy Limited |
Consumer Cyclical |
Appliances & Tools |
-6.5% |
|
LNCR |
12/27/04 |
3.0% |
Lincare Holdings Inc. |
Health Care |
Healthcare Facilities |
-5.6% |
|
LXK |
04/29/05 |
-1.3% |
Lexmark International, Inc. |
Technology |
Computer Peripherals |
-1.4% |
|
NUE |
04/15/05 |
10.3% |
Nucor Corporation |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
-0.8% |
|
PGR |
12/27/04 |
15.5% |
The Progressive Corp. |
Financial |
Insurance (Property & Casualty) |
-0.1% |
|
RS |
04/15/05 |
2.4% |
Reliance Steel & Aluminum |
Basic Materials |
Misc. Fabricated Products |
-4.1% |
|
SRT |
05/06/05 |
13.0% |
StarTek, Inc. |
Services |
Business Services |
-1.4% |
|
STLD |
05/20/05 |
-3.7% |
Steel Dynamics, Inc. |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
-3.7% |
|
THO |
04/15/05 |
15.6% |
Thor Industries, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Mobile Homes & RVs |
-0.2% |
|
TLK |
04/29/05 |
10.2% |
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (ADR) |
Services |
Communications Services |
-0.4% |
|
TSCO |
04/22/05 |
10.7% |
Tractor Supply Company |
Services |
Retail (Home Improvement) |
0.0% |
The stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3F. A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3F
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
|
ATG |
04/29/05 |
3.6% |
AGL Resources Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
0.0% |
|
ATO |
04/01/05 |
5.2% |
Atmos Energy Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-0.8% |
|
CEG |
04/29/05 |
1.6% |
Constellation Energy Group |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-0.6% |
|
CPK |
05/06/05 |
12.7% |
Chesapeake Utilities |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-1.1% |
|
KEP |
01/10/05 |
19.9% |
Korea Electric Power Corporation (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-1.3% |
|
NFG |
04/08/05 |
0.0% |
National Fuel Gas Co. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-2.3% |
|
OKE |
04/15/05 |
6.7% |
ONEOK, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-0.8% |
|
PGN |
01/10/05 |
1.0% |
Progress Energy, Inc. |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-1.1% |
|
PNW |
01/10/05 |
3.4% |
Pinnacle West Capital |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-0.5% |
|
SRE |
01/10/05 |
10.0% |
Sempra Energy |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-5.7% |
|
WPS |
02/07/05 |
8.0% |
WPS Resources Corp |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-1.0% |
The stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3G.
Table 3G
John Templeton Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
|
BRO |
05/27/05 |
1.5% |
Brown & Brown, Inc. |
Financial |
Insurance (Miscellaneous) |
0.0% |
|
CACH |
05/27/05 |
8.1% |
Cache, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-4.0% |
|
CPS |
05/27/05 |
0.1% |
ChoicePoint Inc. |
Services |
Business Services |
-0.6% |
|
DGX |
05/27/05 |
0.0% |
Quest Diagnostics Incorporated |
Health Care |
Healthcare Facilities |
0.0% |
|
EASI |
06/03/05 |
0.0% |
Engineered Support System |
Capital Goods |
Misc. Capital Goods |
0.0% |
|
EDMC |
06/03/05 |
0.0% |
Education Management Corp |
Services |
Schools |
0.0% |
|
FCBP |
05/27/05 |
-0.3% |
First Community Banc./CA/ |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-0.8% |
|
HDI |
05/27/05 |
-3.0% |
Harley-Davidson, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Recreational Products |
-3.0% |
|
HELE |
05/27/05 |
-5.5% |
Helen of Troy Limited |
Consumer Cyclical |
Appliances & Tools |
-5.5% |
|
JNJ |
05/27/05 |
-1.5% |
Johnson & Johnson |
Health Care |
Major Drugs |
-1.5% |
|
MTB |
05/27/05 |
0.1% |
M&T Bank Corporation |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-0.8% |
|
SFG |
05/27/05 |
0.3% |
StanCorp Financial Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Insurance (Life) |
0.0% |
|
SNV |
05/27/05 |
-1.3% |
Synovus Financial Corp. |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-1.3% |
|
SQM |
05/27/05 |
10.2% |
Sociedad Quimica y Minera (ADR) |
Basic Materials |
Chemical Manufacturing |
0.0% |
|
SYY |
05/27/05 |
0.2% |
SYSCO Corporation |
Services |
Retail (Grocery) |
-0.9% |
|
WMAR |
05/27/05 |
0.3% |
West Marine, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-1.4% |
|
WSM |
05/27/05 |
-0.3% |
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-1.1% |
The stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3H.
Table 3H
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
|
ABNS |
05/27/05 |
14.0% |
ALLIANCE BANCSHS CALIF |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-0.7% |
|
APA |
05/27/05 |
1.6% |
Apache Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
|
AQNT |
05/27/05 |
3.1% |
aQuantive Inc. |
Services |
Advertising |
-2.4% |
|
BMHC |
05/27/05 |
0.3% |
Building Materials Holding Corp. |
Services |
Retail (Home Improvement) |
-2.6% |
|
CLFC |
05/27/05 |
3.6% |
Center Financial Corporation |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
0.0% |
|
DHI |
05/27/05 |
1.4% |
D.R. Horton Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-2.1% |
|
EPL |
05/27/05 |
2.7% |
Energy Partners, Ltd. |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
|
EXP |
05/27/05 |
-2.8% |
Eagle Materials, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction - Raw Materials |
-2.8% |
|
LEN |
05/27/05 |
2.1% |
Lennar Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-1.0% |
|
MIKR |
05/27/05 |
3.7% |
Mikron Infrared, Inc. |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
-3.1% |
|
MKL |
05/27/05 |
-1.2% |
Markel Corporation |
Financial |
Insurance (Property & Casualty) |
-1.2% |
|
MPAC |
05/27/05 |
9.1% |
MOD-PAC CORP. |
Basic Materials |
Paper & Paper Products |
0.0% |
|
NICK |
05/27/05 |
7.0% |
Nicholas Financial Inc. |
Financial |
Consumer Financial Services |
-1.1% |
|
NOBH |
05/27/05 |
0.8% |
Nobility Homes, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-5.9% |
|
RESP |
06/03/05 |
0.0% |
Respironics, Inc. |
Health Care |
Medical Equipment & Supplies |
0.0% |
|
RIMG |
05/27/05 |
-4.0% |
Rimage Corporation |
Technology |
Computer Peripherals |
-4.0% |
|
SPF |
05/27/05 |
1.1% |
Standard Pacific Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-2.6% |
|
TOL |
05/27/05 |
3.5% |
Toll Brothers, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-2.5% |
|
VSEC |
05/27/05 |
2.4% |
VSE Corporation |
Services |
Business Services |
-3.2% |
|
ZQK |
05/27/05 |
4.3% |
Quiksilver, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Apparel/Accessories |
0.0% |
This section lists historical results of stock and options trades.
For Stock Trades:
Average fractional profit for 24 trades, FP = 5.1%
Fraction of trades in the correct direction, FC
= 54%
Average fractional gain for 13 winning
trades, FG = 15.4%
Average fractional loss for 11 losing
trades, FL = -7.2%
The dollar profit goal DG is
set equal to the average capital used per trade C such that
N = 1 / FP = 19.8 is
the average number of trades needed to earn the average traded amount.
The Profit Factor for this trading system, FG
FC / [FL (1 - FC)] = 1.71
Gross Profits divided by Gross Losses (includes
1% commission)
|
Number of trades in 2005 = |
24 |
( 1 Trade per Week) |
|
Average Trade Size = |
$1,000.00 |
|
|
Total Share costs = |
$24,000.00 |
|
|
Gross Profit = |
$1,213.67 |
(5.1%) |
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) = |
-$479.52 |
|
|
Subscription Cost to date = |
-$60.00 |
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses = |
$674.15 |
|
|
Major Indices through 06/04/05 |
|
|
DOW |
-3.1% |
|
NASDAQ |
-4.8% |
|
S&P500 |
-1.3% |
|
Russell 2000 |
-4.8% |
Closed Stock Trades
|
Stock |
Ref Date |
Ref. Price |
Last |
Trade |
P/L(%) |
Status |
|
TXU |
11/22/04 |
63.98 |
$82.75 |
Long |
29.3% |
Closed 04/14 |
|
SID |
12/20/04 |
18.49 |
$21.95 |
Long |
18.7% |
Closed 04/08 |
|
AET |
01/03/05 |
61.40 |
$71.24 |
Long |
16.0% |
Closed 04/14 |
|
AAPL |
01/10/05 |
34.48 |
$37.26 |
Long |
8.1% |
Closed 04/14 |
|
TS |
01/10/05 |
46.61 |
$54.89 |
Long |
17.8% |
Closed 04/14 |
|
MDRX |
02/07/05 |
11.25 |
$13.50 |
Long |
20.0% |
Closed 04/14 |
|
VLO |
02/07/05 |
58.26 |
$72.18 |
Long |
23.9% |
Closed 04/14 |
|
PCO |
02/14/05 |
53.51 |
$57.49 |
Long |
7.4% |
Closed 04/14 |
|
BYD |
02/18/05 |
49.96 |
$54.38 |
Long |
8.8% |
Closed 04/14 |
|
RETK |
03/04/05 |
8.49 |
$11.25 |
Long |
32.5% |
Closed 04/12 |
|
WDC |
04/09/05 |
13.78 |
$12.67 |
Long |
-8.1% |
Closed 04/14 |
|
ISRG |
04/15/05 |
47.92 |
43.15 |
Long |
-10.0% |
Closed 04/22 |
|
WYNN |
04/21/05 |
55.65 |
57.68 |
Short |
-3.6% |
Closed 04/26 |
|
UTHR |
04/21/05 |
51.37 |
48.62 |
Long |
-5.4% |
Closed 05/02 |
|
DJ |
04/15/05 |
33.98 |
33.08 |
Short |
2.6% |
Closed 05/02 |
|
GM |
04/15/05 |
25.60 |
30.29 |
Short |
-18.3% |
Closed 05/03 |
|
VLO |
04/21/05 |
75.13 |
67.60 |
Long |
-10.0% |
Closed 05/11 |
|
OPTN |
04/15/05 |
14.09 |
13.05 |
Long |
-7.4% |
Closed 05/11 |
|
KWK |
04/21/05 |
53.46 |
50.40 |
Long |
-5.7% |
Closed 05/16 |
|
TRI |
04/15/05 |
50.59 |
48.82 |
Long |
-3.5% |
Closed 05/16 |
|
WYNN |
05/02/05 |
52.89 |
46.81 |
Short |
11.5% |
Closed 05/18 |
|
JNY |
05/02/05 |
31.00 |
32.10 |
Short |
-3.5% |
Closed 05/23 |
|
EWM |
05/09/05 |
7.11 |
6.86 |
Long |
-3.5% |
Closed 05/23 |
For options trades:
Average fractional profit for 42 trades, FP
= 14.1%
Fraction of trades in the correct direction, FC
= 61.9%
Average fractional gain for 26 winning
trades, FG = 37.1% per trade.
Average fractional loss for 16 losing
trades, FL = -23.3% per trade.
The dollar profit goal DG is
set equal to the average capital used per trade C such that
N = 1 / FP = 7.1 is the
average number of trades needed to earn the average traded amount.
The Profit Factor for this trading system, FG
FC / [FL (1 - FC)] = 2.22
Gross Profits divided by Gross Losses (includes
1% commission)
|
Number of trades in 2005 = |
35 |
(1.5 Trades per Week) |
|
Number of contracts per trade = |
2 |
|
|
Avg. Premium Cost per trade = |
$1,497.89 |
|
|
Total Premium costs = |
$52,426.00 |
|