______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 30 – June13, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
The previous rise in the
price of gold was attributed to a decline in the US dollar versus other
currencies. Last week, and over the last 30 days, gold prices increased for
all five of the major US trading partner currencies tracked in this
newsletter. Take a small position and mind your stops.
1.1 Market View
The celebrated mystery of
the failure of interest rates to rise has been explained in terms of foreign
private investors finding higher rates in US treasuries than they can find at
home. Also, central Asian and European bankers see US treasuries as a better
investment than anywhere else. Gold does not pay interest. Prospects for the
Euro zone to get its economic act together have been pushed much farther into
the future.
The net effect of lower
long term rates is to add further liquidity to the economy, giving real estate an
extended boost by keeping the cost of mortgage financing low. Sporadic
regional bubbles are now recognized as a reality by the Federal Reserve who
remains hesitant to call it a national bubble. The Fed does not see lower long
term rates as a predictor of a weakening economy.
The seesaw interplay
between energy and economic growth continues. As we move into the summer
doldrums, the market drifts lower. The market historically moves sideways to
lower from April to September. June is historically the second worst month
compared to September. We approach warning season once again. For the past
two weeks small caps have outperformed the rest of the market. The recent
rise in technology is dissipating beginning with biotechnology. Semiconductors
remain steady for now. But the NASDAQ never goes far without both. The recent
decline in transportation rules out a confirmation for a rise in the DOW. As
long as banking migrates lower, little rise in the S&P500 can be expected.
Sideways to lower movement can be expected in the near term for the major
averages.
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web
site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
2.0
Market Analysis
The action this past week
was fairly tame. Positive comments by Greenspan, Texas Instruments and
Intel were considered to be already priced into the market. Earnings warnings
may pick up in the next couple of weeks. That is typically what happens
at the end of the calendar quarter. There are also some big economic
reports scheduled next week as well. PPI is due on Tuesday, and CPI on
Wednesday. The core rate on each will be closely watched for inflation trends.
A 0.2% gain on each is expected.
The market may very well
continue to languish short term. There is no strong momentum in either
direction. The S&P 500 index has stabilized in recent weeks, but
remains down 1% for the year.
Industry leaders in Table 2A
rank from highest to lowest. Relative strength is given in Table 2B and VTO
market sentiment in Table 2C.
Table 2B
Relative Strength Index
|
|
5
Day RSI
|
5
Week RSI
|
|
DOW
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
S&P
500
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
|
NASDAQ
|
Neutral
|
Neutral
|
Table 2C
VTO Report on Market Sentiment
Indicators
|
Sentiment Indicator
|
Value
|
Last Week
|
2 Weeks Ago
|
Complacent
|
Cautious
|
|
VIX **
|
11.96
|
12.15
|
12.24
|
< 20
|
> 50
|
|
VXN ***
|
15.87
|
15.59
|
15.00
|
< 30
|
> 70
|
|
Put/Call Ratio
|
0.475
|
0.611
|
0.574
|
< 0.6
|
> 0.7
|
|
%Bulls - %Bears
|
29.7%
|
22.8%
|
20.6%
|
> 29%
|
< 20%
|
|
** Below 20 day SMA = Buy signal.
***
Below 20 day SMA = Buy signal.
|
Taking a look from the top
down in Table 2D, the major averages continued to pause this week while oil
prices rose. Small caps outpaced large caps, looking at the Russell 2000.
Table 2D
Index Tracking Stocks, Key
Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month
|
1 wk
ago
|
2 wks
ago
|
3 wks
ago
|
4 wks
ago
|
|
SPY (S&P 500)
|
3.9%
|
0.0%
|
-0.1%
|
0.9%
|
2.9%
|
|
DIA (DOW)
|
3.4%
|
0.4%
|
-0.6%
|
0.7%
|
2.9%
|
|
QQQQ (NASDAQ)
|
3.6%
|
-1.4%
|
-0.3%
|
1.5%
|
3.9%
|
|
IWM (Russell 2000)
|
7.5%
|
1.1%
|
0.5%
|
1.4%
|
4.3%
|
|
GLD, GOLD
|
1.6%
|
1.1%
|
0.7%
|
0.6%
|
-0.7%
|
|
IYT, Transportation
|
3.8%
|
-2.8%
|
0.3%
|
0.1%
|
6.3%
|
|
SMH, Semiconductors
|
5.4%
|
-0.6%
|
0.8%
|
2.0%
|
3.1%
|
|
BBH, Biotechnology
|
3.7%
|
-0.6%
|
-0.3%
|
2.6%
|
2.0%
|
|
RKH, Banking
|
1.7%
|
-0.6%
|
-0.4%
|
-0.8%
|
3.6%
|
|
IYR, Real Estate
|
6.4%
|
2.3%
|
1.5%
|
-2.1%
|
4.7%
|
|
OIH, Oil
|
15.5%
|
4.1%
|
2.2%
|
6.1%
|
2.4%
|
|
XLE,
Energy
|
12.5%
|
2.4%
|
1.5%
|
5.9%
|
2.2%
|
|
XLB,
Materials
|
4.1%
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
0.5%
|
3.3%
|
|
XLU,
Utilities
|
5.3%
|
0.8%
|
1.5%
|
0.6%
|
2.4%
|
|
XLI,
Industrial
|
3.4%
|
-0.2%
|
-0.4%
|
0.2%
|
3.7%
|
|
XLK,
Technology
|
4.2%
|
-0.4%
|
-0.3%
|
1.4%
|
3.5%
|
|
XLV,
Healthcare
|
0.1%
|
-0.4%
|
-0.4%
|
-0.3%
|
1.3%
|
|
XLF,
Financials
|
4.0%
|
0.2%
|
-0.2%
|
0.3%
|
3.6%
|
|
XLP,
Consumer Staples
|
2.3%
|
0.1%
|
-0.2%
|
-0.6%
|
2.9%
|
|
XLY,
Consumer Discretionary
|
5.5%
|
0.3%
|
-0.2%
|
0.7%
|
4.6%
|
Figure 1 compares index
tracking stocks for the major averages with Sector SPDR’s. With the exception
of energy, all sectors remained flat for the past 2 weeks.
Figure 2 compares index
tracking stocks with key industry ETF’s and the five leading ETF’s for the
week. Key industry ETF’s are Biotech and Semiconductors which confirm the
NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to
Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P
500. Gold and Real Estate are important indicators of the health of the
currency and the economy in general, respectively.
Leading ETF’s were Oil,
energy and real estate. The five worst performing were BDH Broadband HOLDRs Tr
Dep Receip (-2.2%), HHH Internet HOLDRs Trust (-2.6%), IYT iShares Dow Jones
Transportation (2.8%), IIH Internet InfrastructHOLDR's (-3.1%) and EWZ iShares
MSCI-Brazil (-5.3%).
FIGURE 1
FIGURE 2
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily recommended
trades. The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter
and was added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has
changed since a stock first passed the filter. Stocks that are down 10% or
more after being listed are removed.
The “% from Max” is the percentage
the price has declined from the maximum price reached after a stock first passed
the filter. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are
flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being
listed are removed. More information on filters is available on the web site.
Send an email
if you need more details.
Key
|
Passed
Recent Filter & Optionable
|
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3A. These stocks should also appear in one of the Master
Trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious
consideration. AGCC was removed as it declined more than 15% from its high.
Table 3A
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ACAD
|
04/29/05
|
14.1%
|
ACADIA
Pharmaceuticals Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-7.0%
|
|
AFT
|
05/20/05
|
-4.9%
|
Axesstel,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-8.7%
|
|
ASPV
|
05/27/05
|
2.7%
|
Aspreva
Pharmaceuticals Corporation
|
Health Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
|
FTD
|
04/08/05
|
-3.4%
|
FTD Group,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Catalog & Mail Order)
|
-3.6%
|
|
FVRL
|
04/22/05
|
3.1%
|
Favrille,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-4.1%
|
|
INHX
|
04/08/05
|
-4.5%
|
Inhibitex,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-9.8%
|
|
IPSU
|
05/20/05
|
3.5%
|
Imperial
Sugar Company
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Food
Processing
|
-0.4%
|
|
IPXLE
|
04/29/05
|
5.5%
|
Impax
Laboratories Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-0.2%
|
|
IRN
|
05/20/05
|
-2.3%
|
Rewards
Network Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-4.4%
|
|
ITMN
|
04/08/05
|
7.0%
|
InterMune,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-5.4%
|
|
KIRK
|
05/27/05
|
4.7%
|
Kirkland's, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
MERCS
|
05/20/05
|
-2.5%
|
Mercer
International Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Paper
& Paper Products
|
-2.5%
|
|
MWY
|
05/20/05
|
11.1%
|
Midway
Games Inc.
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
0.0%
|
|
ONXS
|
05/20/05
|
19.4%
|
Onyx
Software Corporation
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
-1.0%
|
|
OSHC
|
04/08/05
|
4.4%
|
Ocean
Shore Holding Co.
|
Financial
|
S&Ls/Savings
Banks
|
-2.3%
|
|
TAGS
|
05/27/05
|
39.5%
|
Tarrant
Apparel Group
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Apparel/Accessories
|
-7.2%
|
|
THLD
|
05/06/05
|
6.5%
|
Threshold
Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-1.8%
|
|
TRCA
|
04/29/05
|
10.1%
|
Tercica,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-13.5%
|
|
VSTA
|
05/20/05
|
12.8%
|
VistaCare,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-2.4%
|
|
ZHNE
|
05/06/05
|
8.9%
|
Zhone
Technologies, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-6.9%
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table
3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the Master Trader screens or
meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. ADZA
was removed as it declined more than 15% from its high.
Table 3B
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ACP
|
04/08/05
|
3.0%
|
American
Real Estate Partners, L.P.
|
Services
|
Casinos
& Gaming
|
-1.6%
|
|
CDCO
|
04/22/05
|
0.1%
|
COMDISCO
HLDG CO INC
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
-2.9%
|
|
CFNB
|
05/13/05
|
14.7%
|
California First National Bancorp
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
-2.3%
|
|
CLCT
|
05/20/05
|
-3.2%
|
Collectors
Universe, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-3.2%
|
|
DITC
|
06/03/05
|
1.8%
|
Ditech
Communications
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-1.1%
|
|
EXAR
|
05/20/05
|
16.9%
|
Exar
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
0.0%
|
|
EXM
|
05/27/05
|
1.0%
|
Excel
Maritime Carriers
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
-7.5%
|
|
FDRY
|
04/29/05
|
14.9%
|
Foundry
Networks, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-1.1%
|
|
HWG
|
06/03/05
|
4.6%
|
The
Hallwood Group Incorporated
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Textiles -
Non-Apparel
|
0.0%
|
|
KEYN
|
05/13/05
|
14.5%
|
Keynote
Systems, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-0.4%
|
|
MFW
|
05/13/05
|
4.6%
|
M & F
Worldwide Corp.
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-0.5%
|
|
NCTY
|
04/08/05
|
36.8%
|
The9
Limited
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-5.9%
|
|
VNUS
|
05/06/05
|
20.1%
|
VNUS
Medical Technologies, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-3.4%
|
|
WSC
|
04/08/05
|
-5.3%
|
Wesco
Financial Corporation
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-6.5%
|
|
WZEN
|
04/22/05
|
7.7%
|
Webzen
Inc. (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
For the screen in
Table 3C, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30.
Table 3C
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ADVNB
|
05/20/05
|
4.3%
|
Advanta
Corp.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-1.3%
|
|
BDK
|
04/29/05
|
2.9%
|
The Black
& Decker Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-2.4%
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
6.0%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-6.1%
|
|
CRAI
|
03/18/05
|
9.1%
|
CRA
International Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-3.0%
|
|
HOV
|
06/03/05
|
-0.4%
|
Hovnanian
Enterprises
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-2.5%
|
|
ORCC
|
05/06/05
|
11.3%
|
Online
Resources Corp.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-3.4%
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
0.0%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-4.9%
|
|
PNR
|
05/06/05
|
3.3%
|
Pentair,
Inc.
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-7.4%
|
|
PTRY
|
04/29/05
|
17.1%
|
The
Pantry, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
-3.4%
|
|
SFY
|
04/22/05
|
27.1%
|
Swift
Energy Company
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-1.0%
|
|
SGK
|
05/13/05
|
16.8%
|
Schawk,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Printing
Services
|
-2.3%
|
|
SPF
|
05/06/05
|
8.8%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.7%
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
-0.9%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-2.3%
|
|
TDY
|
04/29/05
|
7.0%
|
Teledyne
Technologies Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-0.4%
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
8.9%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-1.9%
|
|
WOS
|
04/01/05
|
-1.6%
|
Wolseley
plc (ADR)
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-4.6%
|
|
ZNT
|
04/15/05
|
18.3%
|
Zenith
National Insurance Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-1.5%
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30.
Table 3D
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
BLSC
|
04/22/05
|
-6.6%
|
Bio-Logic
Systems Corp.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-14.5%
|
|
CAJ
|
01/31/05
|
3.0%
|
Canon Inc.
(ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-2.2%
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
8.3%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-1.3%
|
|
GMK
|
05/06/05
|
18.7%
|
Gruma S.A.
de C.V. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Food
Processing
|
-1.3%
|
|
KEP
|
12/13/04
|
17.3%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
9.5%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
0.0%
|
|
LFL
|
05/13/05
|
0.1%
|
Lan
Airlines S.A. (ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Airline
|
-5.2%
|
|
MKTAY
|
04/15/05
|
16.9%
|
Makita
Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-0.5%
|
|
NHY
|
04/29/05
|
8.3%
|
Norsk
Hydro ASA (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
0.0%
|
|
NTE
|
05/06/05
|
5.9%
|
Nam Tai
Electronics, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Electronic
Instruments & Controls
|
-0.4%
|
|
PKX
|
04/29/05
|
-1.9%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-6.2%
|
|
RD
|
04/29/05
|
2.0%
|
Royal
Dutch Petroleum Company (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-0.7%
|
|
SAB
|
05/13/05
|
-2.2%
|
Grupo Casa
Saba, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Personal
& Household Products
|
-2.6%
|
|
SC
|
04/29/05
|
-0.7%
|
Shell Transport
& Trading (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-2.3%
|
|
SHI
|
06/03/05
|
2.1%
|
Sinopec
Shanghai Petrochemical Co. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-2.3%
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
4.3%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-2.8%
|
|
TKS
|
04/15/05
|
-4.5%
|
Tomkins
plc (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-5.5%
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
-5.1%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-13.1%
|
|
TMX
|
06/03/05
|
-0.9%
|
Telefonos
de Mexico, S.A. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-0.9%
|
|
TP
|
05/27/05
|
-5.2%
|
TNT N.V.
(ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-5.2%
|
|
VCP
|
05/06/05
|
0.4%
|
Votorantim
Celulose e Papel S.A (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Forestry
& Wood Products
|
-2.1%
|
|
VLCCF
|
06/03/05
|
3.1%
|
Knightsbridge
Tankers Limited
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
0.0%
|
|
YPF
|
04/15/05
|
4.9%
|
YPF
Sociedad Anonima S.A. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-7.9%
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3E is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3E
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
0.1%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-5.8%
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
4.9%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-3.3%
|
|
APPB
|
04/29/05
|
12.0%
|
Applebee's
Int'l, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
0.0%
|
|
CACH
|
04/29/05
|
42.6%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
DHI
|
04/15/05
|
27.0%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-4.6%
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
-4.5%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-8.7%
|
|
ELBO
|
01/31/05
|
80.8%
|
Electronics
Boutique Holdings Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Technology)
|
0.0%
|
|
FOSL
|
05/13/05
|
9.9%
|
Fossil,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Jewelry
& Silverware
|
-0.8%
|
|
HDI
|
04/15/05
|
7.5%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-1.5%
|
|
HELE
|
05/20/05
|
-9.4%
|
Helen of
Troy Limited
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-11.7%
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
3.1%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-5.6%
|
|
LXK
|
04/29/05
|
-4.0%
|
Lexmark
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-4.1%
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
5.4%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-5.1%
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
16.3%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-0.6%
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
3.2%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
-3.4%
|
|
SRT
|
05/06/05
|
21.9%
|
StarTek,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-2.6%
|
|
STLD
|
05/20/05
|
-3.2%
|
Steel
Dynamics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-3.2%
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
17.9%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
-2.0%
|
|
TLK
|
04/29/05
|
10.7%
|
PT
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-0.3%
|
|
TSCO
|
04/22/05
|
14.7%
|
Tractor
Supply Company
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
-0.3%
|
The stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3F. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3F
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ATG
|
04/29/05
|
4.5%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
5.5%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.5%
|
|
CEG
|
04/29/05
|
2.8%
|
Constellation
Energy Group
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
17.7%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
26.7%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
NFG
|
04/08/05
|
-0.6%
|
National
Fuel Gas Co.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-2.8%
|
|
OKE
|
04/15/05
|
10.5%
|
ONEOK,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
1.9%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-0.2%
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
3.4%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-0.9%
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
10.8%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-5.0%
|
|
UU
|
06/10/05
|
0.0%
|
United
Utilities PLC (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
8.9%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-0.2%
|
The stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing
are listed in Table 3G. HELE was removed as it declined more than 10% from
its initial listing price.
Table 3G
John Templeton Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
BRO
|
05/27/05
|
3.9%
|
Brown
& Brown, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Miscellaneous)
|
-0.7%
|
|
CACH
|
05/27/05
|
21.1%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
CPS
|
05/27/05
|
0.3%
|
ChoicePoint
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-1.3%
|
|
DGX
|
05/27/05
|
-1.6%
|
Quest
Diagnostics Incorporated
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-1.6%
|
|
EASI
|
06/03/05
|
1.6%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-0.6%
|
|
EDMC
|
06/03/05
|
1.9%
|
Education
Management Corp
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-1.0%
|
|
FCBP
|
05/27/05
|
1.7%
|
First
Community Banc./CA/
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
0.0%
|
|
HDI
|
05/27/05
|
-1.3%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-1.3%
|
|
JNJ
|
05/27/05
|
-1.4%
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
Health
Care
|
Major
Drugs
|
-1.4%
|
|
MTB
|
05/27/05
|
-0.3%
|
M&T
Bank Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-1.2%
|
|
SFG
|
05/27/05
|
0.6%
|
StanCorp
Financial Group, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Life)
|
0.0%
|
|
SNV
|
05/27/05
|
-0.4%
|
Synovus
Financial Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-0.4%
|
|
SQM
|
05/27/05
|
9.1%
|
Sociedad
Quimica y Minera (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-1.0%
|
|
SYY
|
05/27/05
|
-0.9%
|
SYSCO
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
-2.0%
|
|
WMAR
|
05/27/05
|
10.2%
|
West
Marine, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
WSM
|
05/27/05
|
1.0%
|
Williams-Sonoma,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-0.9%
|
The stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are
listed in Table 3H.
Table 3H
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ABNS
|
05/27/05
|
26.0%
|
ALLIANCE BANCSHS CALIF
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-1.6%
|
|
APA
|
05/27/05
|
5.5%
|
Apache Corporation
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
0.0%
|
|
AQNT
|
05/27/05
|
9.1%
|
aQuantive
Inc.
|
Services
|
Advertising
|
0.0%
|
|
BMHC
|
05/27/05
|
5.6%
|
Building
Materials Holding Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
0.0%
|
|
CAE
|
06/10/05
|
0.0%
|
Cascade
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc. Capital
Goods
|
0.0%
|
|
CLFC
|
05/27/05
|
4.1%
|
Center
Financial Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-2.0%
|
|
CMTL
|
06/10/05
|
0.0%
|
Comtech
Telecomm. Corp.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
0.0%
|
|
DHI
|
05/27/05
|
-1.2%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-4.6%
|
|
EPL
|
05/27/05
|
3.5%
|
Energy
Partners, Ltd.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
0.0%
|
|
EXP
|
05/27/05
|
-0.9%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
-0.9%
|
|
LEN
|
05/27/05
|
2.2%
|
Lennar
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-1.5%
|
|
MIKR
|
05/27/05
|
-4.1%
|
Mikron
Infrared, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Scientific
& Technical Instruments
|
-12.8%
|
|
MKL
|
05/27/05
|
-1.4%
|
Markel
Corporation
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-1.4%
|
|
MPAC
|
05/27/05
|
11.4%
|
MOD-PAC
CORP.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Paper
& Paper Products
|
0.0%
|
|
NICK
|
05/27/05
|
8.1%
|
Nicholas
Financial Inc.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-0.2%
|
|
NOBH
|
05/27/05
|
4.1%
|
Nobility
Homes, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-2.8%
|
|
POOL
|
06/10/05
|
0.0%
|
SCP Pool
Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
0.0%
|
|
RESP
|
06/03/05
|
1.6%
|
Respironics,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-3.5%
|
|
RIMG
|
05/27/05
|
-8.6%
|
Rimage
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-8.6%
|
|
SPF
|
05/27/05
|
3.2%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.7%
|
|
TOL
|
05/27/05
|
6.0%
|
Toll
Brothers, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.7%
|
|
VSEC
|
05/27/05
|
1.3%
|
VSE
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-4.3%
|
|
ZQK
|
05/27/05
|
3.3%
|
Quiksilver,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Apparel/Accessories
|
-3.1%
|
4.0
Results
This section lists
historical results of stock and options trades.
4.1 Stock Trades
For Stock Trades:
Average fractional profit for 25 trades, FP
= 5.0%
Fraction of trades in the correct direction, FC
= 56%
Average fractional gain for 14 winning trades,
FG = 14.5%
Average fractional loss for 11 losing
trades, FL = -7.2%
The dollar profit goal DG is
set equal to the average capital used per trade C such that
N = 1 / FP = 20.1 is
the average number of trades needed to earn the average traded amount.
The Profit Factor for this trading system, FG
FC / [FL (1 - FC)] = 1.71
Gross Profits divided by Gross Losses (includes
1% commission)
Closed Stock
Trades
|
Stock
|
Ref Date
|
Ref. Price
|
Last
|
Trade
|
P/L(%)
|
Status
|
|
TXU
|
11/22/04
|
63.98
|
$82.75
|
Long
|
29.3%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
SID
|
12/20/04
|
18.49
|
$21.95
|
Long
|
18.7%
|
Closed 04/08
|
|
AET
|
01/03/05
|
61.40
|
$71.24
|
Long
|
16.0%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
AAPL
|
01/10/05
|
34.48
|
$37.26
|
Long
|
8.1%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
TS
|
01/10/05
|
46.61
|
$54.89
|
Long
|
17.8%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
MDRX
|
02/07/05
|
11.25
|
$13.50
|
Long
|
20.0%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
VLO
|
02/07/05
|
58.26
|
$72.18
|
Long
|
23.9%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
PCO
|
02/14/05
|
53.51
|
$57.49
|
Long
|
7.4%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
BYD
|
02/18/05
|
49.96
|
$54.38
|
Long
|
8.8%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
RETK
|
03/04/05
|
8.49
|
$11.25
|
Long
|
32.5%
|
Closed 04/12
|
|
WDC
|
04/09/05
|
13.78
|
$12.67
|
Long
|
-8.1%
|
Closed 04/14
|
|
ISRG
|
04/15/05
|
47.92
|
43.15
|
Long
|
-10.0%
|
Closed 04/22
|
|
WYNN
|
04/21/05
|
55.65
|
57.68
|
Short
|
-3.6%
|
Closed 04/26
|
|
UTHR
|
04/21/05
|
51.37
|
48.62
|
Long
|
-5.4%
|
Closed 05/02
|
|
DJ
|
04/15/05
|
33.98
|
33.08
|
Short
|
2.6%
|
Closed 05/02
|
|
GM
|
04/15/05
|
25.60
|
30.29
|
Short
|
-18.3%
|
Closed 05/03
|
|
VLO
|
04/21/05
|
75.13
|
67.60
|
Long
|
-10.0%
|
Closed 05/11
|
|
OPTN
|
04/15/05
|
14.09
|
13.05
|
Long
|
-7.4%
|
Closed 05/11
|
|
KWK
|
04/21/05
|
53.46
|
50.40
|
Long
|
-5.7%
|
Closed 05/16
|
|
TRI
|
04/15/05
|
50.59
|
48.82
|
Long
|
-3.5%
|
Closed 05/16
|
|
WYNN
|
05/02/05
|
52.89
|
46.81
|
Short
|
11.5%
|
Closed 05/18
|
|
JNY
|
05/02/05
|
31.00
|
32.10
|
Short
|
-3.5%
|
Closed 05/23
|
|
EWM
|
05/09/05
|
7.11
|
6.86
|
Long
|
-3.5%
|
Closed 05/23
|
|
ICF
|
04/29/05
|
132.44
|
137.28
|
Long
|
3.7%
|
Closed 05/31
|
|
BBH
|
05/23/05
|
164.40
|
169.29
|
Long
|
3.0%
|
Closed 06/06
|
|
Number of trades in 2005 =
|
25
|
( 1 Trade per Week)
|
|
Average Trade Size =
|
$1,000.00
|
|
|
Total Share costs =
|
$25,000.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit =
|
$1,243.41
|
(5.0%)
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$499.50
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$60.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$683.91
|
|
|
Major Indices through 06/11/05
|
|
DOW
|
-2.5%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
-5.2%
|
|
S&P500
|
-1.1%
|
|
Russell
2000
|
-3.9%
|
4.2
Option Trades
Average fractional profit for 43 trades, FP = 14.15%
Fraction of trades in the correct direction, FC
= 62.8%
Average fractional gain for 27 winning
trades, FG = 36.3% per trade.
Average fractional loss for 16 losing
trades, FL = -23.3% per trade.
The dollar profit goal DG is
set equal to the average capital used per trade C such that
N = 1 / FP = 7.1 is the
average number of trades needed to earn the average traded amount.
The Profit Factor for this trading system, FG
FC / [FL (1 - FC)] = 2.26
Gross Profits divided by Gross Losses (includes
1% commission)
|
Number of trades in 2005 =
|
36
|
(1.5 Trades per Week)
|
|
Number of contracts per trade =
|
2
|
|
|
Avg. Premium Cost per trade =
|
$1,456.28
|
|
|
Total Premium costs =
|
$52,426.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit =
|
$7,420.87
|
(14.2%)
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$1,074.14
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$360.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$5,986.73
|
(Avg.
holding period 9.5 days)
|
|
Major Indices through 06/11/05
|
|
DOW
|
-2.5%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
-5.2%
|
|
S&P500
|
-1.1%
|
|
Russell
2000
|
-3.9%
|
Closed Options Trades
|
Stock
|
Buy
Date
|
Buy Price
|
Last
|
Action
|
P/L(%)
|
Option
|
|
URBN
|
11/23/04
|
11.50
|
$9.00
|
Sold 11/30
|
-21.7%
|
URQ FG JUN
35.00 CALL
|
|
TXU
|
11/23/04
|
11.30
|
$6.30 |