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Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter ______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 81 June 19, 2006 Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com ______________________________________________________________________________
1.0 Trading
The major indices have tested their 2-year lower trend lines in an attempt to establish a bottom.
1.1 Bottoming
The first test of 2-year lower trend lines in over six months was seen recently for all the major averages. The bounce, seen in Figure 1A for the S&P 500 was a welcome sight. In the past, the averages have retested their lows two or three times before they rallied. More volatility can be expected in the near term. The 200-day SMA has become resistance for the S&P 500.
FIGURE 1A
The NASDAQ in Figure 1B is a bit more worrisome. It fell below its 2-year lower trend line, which along with its 200-day SMA, has now become resistance.
FIGURE 1B
Figure 1C shows that the average momentum indicator for 5 indices is approaching the neutral level of -43 after being briefly oversold. The pause in its upward movement on Friday was not met with the same erratic reversal of three weeks ago. Component indicator values are diverging a bit, which may help dampen some of the choppiness.
FIGURE 1C
New long positions should be entered with tight sell stops. They can be loosened when the S&P 30-day moving average begins to slope upward.
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1 month |
1 wk ago |
2 wks ago |
3 wks ago |
4 wks ago |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Index |
-1.2% |
1.1% |
-3.2% |
-0.3% |
1.2% |
|
NASDAQ Composite Index |
-2.9% |
-0.2% |
-3.8% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
S & P 500 Index |
-1.2% |
-0.1% |
-2.8% |
0.6% |
1.0% |
|
NYSE Composite Index |
-3.0% |
-0.4% |
-4.1% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
Russell 2000 Index |
-4.1% |
-1.2% |
-4.9% |
1.1% |
1.0% |
|
HGX, Phil. Housing Index |
-9.3% |
-0.9% |
-6.8% |
-1.9% |
0.1% |
|
IYR, Real Estate |
2.9% |
-0.9% |
0.0% |
2.2% |
1.7% |
|
GLD, GOLD |
-12.0% |
-4.6% |
-4.8% |
-2.5% |
-0.7% |
|
RKH, Banking |
-1.5% |
-2.5% |
-1.1% |
1.4% |
0.7% |
|
IYT, Transportation |
0.4% |
2.1% |
-4.4% |
1.8% |
1.1% |
|
SMH, Semiconductors |
-6.1% |
1.3% |
-5.9% |
1.2% |
-2.8% |
|
BBH, Biotechnology |
0.4% |
0.6% |
-3.3% |
0.9% |
2.3% |
|
OIH, Oil Infrastructure |
-2.6% |
-0.2% |
-8.4% |
3.5% |
2.9% |
|
XLE, Energy |
-1.7% |
0.6% |
-6.6% |
2.6% |
2.0% |
|
XLU, Utilities |
3.3% |
-1.1% |
-0.2% |
2.9% |
1.7% |
|
XLB, Materials |
-5.1% |
0.0% |
-6.8% |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
XLI, Industrial |
-2.3% |
1.3% |
-4.4% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
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XLK, Technology |
-2.0% |
1.3% |
-3.7% |
-0.2% |
0.8% |
|
XLV, Healthcare |
0.1% |
-0.4% |
-1.5% |
1.1% |
0.9% |
|
XLF, Financials |
-2.4% |
-2.7% |
-1.7% |
0.9% |
1.0% |
|
XLP, Consumer Staples |
0.6% |
-0.1% |
-0.8% |
-0.5% |
2.0% |
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XLY, Consumer Discretionary |
-1.6% |
0.0% |
-2.4% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
The VIX and VXN volatility indexes are listed in Table 2B.
Table 2B
Volatility
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Indicator |
Current |
Last Week |
2 Weeks Ago |
Complacent |
Cautious |
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VIX ** |
17.3 |
18.1 |
14.3 |
< 20 |
> 50 |
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VXN *** |
21.7 |
23.2 |
18.4 |
< 30 |
> 70 |
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** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal. *** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal. |
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Figure 2A compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDRs.
FIGURE 2A
Table 2C Market Summary Industries are listed according to the Yahoo Industry Classification
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3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders. The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.
Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.
One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence.
A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R. The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.
The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months. More information on filters is available on the web site.
A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A.
Table 3A Stock Filter Summary
Key
Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3B Net Insider Buying Check List
Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C Capital Rich Companies Check List
Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5. Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.
Table 3D Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List
For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E Peter Lynch Value Watch List
For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3F Growth Momentum Watch List
The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term. Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G Warren Buffett Value Watch List
Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H. A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3H Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I John Templeton Watch List
Optionable stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J.
Table 3J Martin Zweig Watch List
4.0 Results & Conclusions
This section highlights trading performance. Only a summary is provided here to save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the website.
4.1 Options Trading
Average Profit per Trade 2.04%
Average Hold Time 2.7 days
4.2 Stock Trading
Appendix - Investment Conference ScheduleBelow are links to conference registration sites where you can sign up.
Conference Search
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