Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter

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Issue No.  81  June 19, 2006                          Prescott, Arizona                       Systems@WiserTrader.com

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1.0   Trading

     

      The major indices have tested their 2-year lower trend lines in an attempt to establish a bottom.

 

1.1 Bottoming

 

       The first test of 2-year lower trend lines in over six months was seen recently for all the major averages.  The bounce, seen in Figure 1A for the S&P 500 was a welcome sight.  In the past, the averages have retested their lows two or three times before they rallied.  More volatility can be expected in the near term.  The 200-day SMA has become resistance for the S&P 500.

 

 

FIGURE 1A

 

 

 

© 2006 WiserTrader.com, LLC.  Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed brokers nor licensed advisors.  Trades discussed represent recommendations made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio.  The newsletter and web site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.  While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be made in transcription.  Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser.  WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation with trading system companies. 

   

 

      The NASDAQ in Figure 1B is a bit more worrisome.  It fell below its 2-year lower trend line, which along with its 200-day SMA, has now become resistance. 

 

 

FIGURE 1B

 

 

      Figure 1C shows that the average momentum indicator for 5 indices is approaching the neutral level of -43 after being briefly oversold.  The pause in its upward movement on Friday was not met with the same erratic reversal of three weeks ago.  Component indicator values are diverging a bit, which may help dampen some of the choppiness.

 

 

FIGURE 1C

 

 

      New long positions should be entered with tight sell stops.  They can be loosened when the S&P 30-day moving average begins to slope upward.

 

 

 

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2.0 Market Analysis

 

      Volatility can be expected to continue until well after the FOMC issues its June policy statement.  Torn between further Fed tightening and the Fed’s ability to manage inflation expectations, investors are beginning to view the latter as more of a positive than they view the former as a negative.  Continuous shifts in this balance of sentiment are the cause of market volatility.

 

      Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ.  Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory.  Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500.  Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending. 

 

 

Table 2A

Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s

 

1 month

1 wk ago

2 wks ago

3 wks ago

4 wks ago

Dow Jones Industrial Index

-1.2%

1.1%

-3.2%

-0.3%

1.2%

NASDAQ Composite Index

-2.9%

-0.2%

-3.8%

0.4%

0.8%

S & P 500 Index

-1.2%

-0.1%

-2.8%

0.6%

1.0%

NYSE Composite Index

-3.0%

-0.4%

-4.1%

0.8%

0.8%

Russell 2000 Index

-4.1%

-1.2%

-4.9%

1.1%

1.0%

HGX, Phil. Housing Index

-9.3%

-0.9%

-6.8%

-1.9%

0.1%

IYR, Real Estate

2.9%

-0.9%

0.0%

2.2%

1.7%

GLD, GOLD

-12.0%

-4.6%

-4.8%

-2.5%

-0.7%

RKH, Banking

-1.5%

-2.5%

-1.1%

1.4%

0.7%

IYT, Transportation

0.4%

2.1%

-4.4%

1.8%

1.1%

SMH, Semiconductors

-6.1%

1.3%

-5.9%

1.2%

-2.8%

BBH, Biotechnology

0.4%

0.6%

-3.3%

0.9%

2.3%

OIH, Oil Infrastructure

-2.6%

-0.2%

-8.4%

3.5%

2.9%

XLE, Energy

-1.7%

0.6%

-6.6%

2.6%

2.0%

XLU, Utilities

3.3%

-1.1%

-0.2%

2.9%

1.7%

XLB, Materials

-5.1%

0.0%

-6.8%

0.8%

1.0%

XLI, Industrial

-2.3%

1.3%

-4.4%

0.6%

0.3%

XLK, Technology

-2.0%

1.3%

-3.7%

-0.2%

0.8%

XLV, Healthcare

0.1%

-0.4%

-1.5%

1.1%

0.9%

XLF, Financials

-2.4%

-2.7%

-1.7%

0.9%

1.0%

XLP, Consumer Staples

0.6%

-0.1%

-0.8%

-0.5%

2.0%

XLY, Consumer Discretionary

-1.6%

0.0%

-2.4%

0.9%

0.0%

 

 

 

      The VIX and VXN volatility indexes are listed in Table 2B.

 

 

Table 2B

Volatility

Indicator

Current

Last Week

2 Weeks Ago

Complacent

Cautious

VIX **

17.3

18.1

14.3

< 20

> 50

VXN ***

21.7

23.2

18.4

< 30

> 70

**   Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal.

*** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal.

 

 

 

      Figure 2A compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDRs.

 

 

FIGURE 2A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2C

Market Summary

 

Industries are listed according to the Yahoo Industry Classification

 

 Major Indices 
 For the Past Week:
 Dow Jones     +1.1%
 NASDAQ        -0.2%
 S&P500 Index  -0.1%
 Russell 2000  -1.2%
 NYSE          -0.4%
 
 30 Year Bond 5.172%
 10 Year Note 5.128%
 
 Leading Industries
 For the Past Week:

General Entertainment

Recreational Vehicles

Diversified Computer Systems

Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits

Beverages - Wineries & Distillers

Aerospace/Defense - Major Diversified

Electronics Stores

Telecom Services - Domestic

Semiconductor - Broad Line

Farm & Construction Machinery

  
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Week:

Consumer Services

Waste Management

Gaming Activities

Basic Materials Wholesale

Healthcare Information Services

Manufactured Housing

Building Materials Wholesale

Printed Circuit Boards

Lodging

Department Stores

 Leading Industries
 For the Past Month:

Drug Stores

Beverages - Wineries & Distillers

Telecom Services - Domestic

REIT - Office

Gas Utilities

Electric Utilities

Recreational Vehicles

REIT - Healthcare Facilities

REIT - Residential

Tobacco Products, Other

  
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Month:

Cement

Computer Based Systems

Printed Circuit Boards

Technical Services

Building Materials Wholesale

Manufactured Housing

Diversified Machinery

Lodging

Major Integrated Oil & Gas

Department Stores

  
 
 Crude Oil $69.97
 
 Gold for the past 30 days:
 USD    -16.43%
 CAD    -15.69%
 CHF    -15.30%
 GBP    -14.85%
 EUR    -15.77%
 JPY    -12.94%

 

 

 

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3.0 Procedure

 

      The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration.  They are not necessarily trades.  Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders.  The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.

 

      Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days.  Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day.  Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.

 

      One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward.  They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline.  The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence. 

 

      A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R.  The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.

 

      The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list.  The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months.  The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow.  Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months.  More information on filters is available on the web site.

 

      A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A. 

 

 

Table 3A

Stock Filter Summary

Filter

Avg. % Change Since Listed

Avg. % Change Friday

1 Month

1 Week Ago

2 weeks Ago

3 Weeks Ago

4 Weeks Ago

Net Insider Buying

2.8%

1.0%

3.9%

-0.4%

-1.9%

2.6%

3.5%

Cash Rich Companies

2.5%

-0.4%

-2.6%

-2.6%

0.6%

1.6%

-2.0%

Price to Free Cash Flow

-2.0%

-0.1%

-6.4%

-2.5%

-4.9%

-0.7%

1.8%

Growth Momentum

4.6%

-0.1%

-0.5%

-0.5%

-4.4%

2.8%

1.7%

Lynch

12.7%

-0.3%

-1.6%

2.4%

-4.7%

1.5%

-0.7%

Buffett

7.0%

0.1%

0.6%

1.2%

-3.1%

2.0%

0.6%

Graham

5.1%

-0.3%

1.5%

-0.8%

-2.2%

2.4%

2.2%

Templeton

1.9%

-0.4%

-2.0%

-0.5%

-2.4%

0.3%

0.7%

 Zweig

0.6%

-0.1%

0.5%

-0.7%

-2.7%

2.4%

1.6%

Average

3.9%

-0.1%

-0.7%

-0.5%

-2.9%

1.6%

1.1%

 

 

Key

Passed Recent Filter

Price declined by half of stop loss setting

Oversold  based on  Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

Overbought based on Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

 

 

      Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

 

Table 3B

Net Insider Buying Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

TRGT

06/02/06

-2.3%

Targacept , Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-3.0%

-3.7%

-76

-91

SGXP

06/09/06

2.7%

SGX Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-2.0%

-3.4%

-73

-81

LXU

12/23/05

27.6%

LSB Industries, Inc.

Basic Materials

Chemical Manufacturing

-10.0%

-2.4%

-73

-73

RGNC

05/26/06

-2.0%

Regency Energy Partners LP

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-4.3%

0.6%

-70

-70

NAHC

05/12/06

-6.4%

National Atlantic Holdings Corporation

Financial

Insurance (Property & Casualty)

-8.7%

-6.4%

-65

-67

EQS

04/13/06

0.0%

Equus II Incorporated

Financial

Investment Services

-6.6%

0.7%

-73

-61

FVRL

06/16/06

0.0%

Favrille, Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

0.0%

-7.0%

-60

-60

IOMI

06/09/06

-4.6%

Iomai Corporation

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-4.6%

2.6%

-55

-57

TWI

06/16/06

0.0%

Titan International, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Auto & Truck Parts

0.0%

-4.6%

-59

-53

ACME

05/12/06

10.4%

ACME Communications, Inc.

Services

Broadcasting & Cable TV

0.0%

5.1%

-28

-14

APN

06/09/06

2.6%

Applica Incorporated

Consumer Cyclical

Appliances & Tools

0.0%

2.6%

-19

-10

MOCC

05/26/06

6.1%

Moscow CableCom Corp.

Services

Broadcasting & Cable TV

0.0%

30.5%

0

0

 

 

 

      Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

 

Table 3C

Capital Rich Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

WSC

03/11/06

-5.8%

Wesco Financial Corporation

Conglomerates

Conglomerates

-7.7%

-4.9%

-77

-74

ACTS

05/05/06

-1.4%

Actions Semiconductor Co., Ltd. (ADR)

Technology

Semiconductors

-8.8%

-8.8%

-58

-62

SCIX

04/07/06

14.7%

Scailex Corp., Ltd.

Technology

Computer Networks

-3.2%

5.8%

-30

-30

 

 

 

      Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5.  Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.

 

 

Table 3D

Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

RHD

06/09/06

-2.9%

R.H. Donnelley Corp.

Services

Advertising

-2.9%

-2.9%

-83

-93

TGS

06/09/06

-8.0%

Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A (ADR)

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-8.0%

-8.0%

-80

-88

FNLY

06/16/06

0.0%

Finlay Enterprises, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

0.0%

-5.0%

-97

-81

TEO

06/09/06

-0.6%

Telecom Argentina S.A. (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

-2.0%

-0.6%

-73

-79

RKT

06/09/06

-1.0%

Rock-Tenn Company

Basic Materials

Paper & Paper Products

-2.4%

-1.0%

-44

-53

FIS

05/12/06

0.5%

Fidelity National Information Services

Services

Business Services

-0.9%

2.3%

-54

-29

 

 

 

      For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

 

 

Table 3E

Peter Lynch Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

SKM

02/07/05

21.5%

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

-11.6%

-4.0%

-86

-86

PKX

06/16/06

0.0%

POSCO (ADR)

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

0.0%

-12.9%

-77

-77

BTI

08/12/05

23.3%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-4.9%

-1.4%

-68

-64

CAE

04/21/06

-1.6%

Cascade Corporation

Capital Goods

Misc. Capital Goods

-4.5%

4.2%

-21

-20

AZN

02/03/06

20.2%

AstraZeneca PLC (ADR)

Health Care

Major Drugs

-1.4%

6.2%

-17

-17

 

 

 

      For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

 

Table 3F

Growth Momentum Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

KCS

05/12/06

-9.1%

KCS Energy, Inc.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-9.1%

-2.7%

-74

-74

CHE

05/06/05

34.3%

Chemed Corporation

Services

Business Services

-14.9%

-1.4%

-71

-71

MDR

05/12/06

-6.6%

McDermott International

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-7.3%

-1.3%

-61

-61

ENDP

02/17/06

-0.2%

Endo Pharmaceuticals

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-11.1%

2.1%

-51

-49

 

 

 

      The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term.  Two requirements were added.  One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities.  The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.

 

 

Table 3G

Warren Buffett Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

ANF

03/03/06

-4.3%

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-12.1%

-7.9%

-78

-78

UNT

03/03/06

-2.5%

Unit Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-14.3%

-0.9%

-78

-78

CCRT

12/30/05

-1.6%

CompuCredit Corporation

Financial

Consumer Financial Services

-10.0%

-2.0%

-80

-74

ABFS

04/29/05

33.5%

Arkansas Best Corporation

Transportation

Trucking

-7.8%

-2.3%

-68

-68

JBHT

03/31/06

11.6%

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

-7.0%

-1.5%

-66

-66

BTI

12/30/05

10.3%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-4.9%

-1.4%

-68

-64

OXY

03/03/06

1.8%

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-9.7%

2.8%

-62

-62

STR

05/26/06

2.7%

Questar Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-4.1%

-0.3%

-58

-58

FNF

10/21/05

11.3%

Fidelity National Financial

Financial

Insurance (Property & Casualty)

-6.4%

-1.8%

-46

-46

AEOS

03/10/06

12.2%

American Eagle Outfitters

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-2.8%

0.7%

-38

-38

NAT

05/12/06

6.4%

Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited

Transportation

Water Transportation

0.0%

11.9%

-35

-23

NKE

09/23/05

2.3%

NIKE, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Footwear

-9.1%

5.7%

-16

-16

HDI

10/14/05

7.8%

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Recreational Products

-4.9%

6.8%

-15

-15

 

 

 

      Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H.  A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less. 

 

 

Table 3H

Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

EON

03/10/06

-5.2%

E.ON AG (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-14.8%

-5.1%

-93

-93

OTTR

06/09/06

-0.3%

Otter Tail Corporation

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-1.5%

-4.0%

-86

-85

WPS

05/26/06

0.4%

WPS Resources Corp

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-1.9%

1.1%

-69

-69

SRE

01/10/05

22.8%

Sempra Energy

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-8.9%

0.8%

-61

-55

UU

06/10/05

0.5%

United Utilities PLC (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-4.6%

-2.2%

-54

-54

VVC

03/03/06

0.8%

Vectren Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-4.9%

1.9%

-54

-54

ATO

04/01/05

-1.0%

Atmos Energy Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-10.5%

1.3%

-49

-45

OKE

11/11/05

24.7%

ONEOK, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-3.6%

7.6%

-32

-32

WGL

12/23/05

-5.4%

WGL Holdings, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-8.3%

2.9%

-32

-25

UGI

12/30/05

15.7%

UGI Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-1.2%

5.3%

-19

-19

ATG

10/21/05

11.0%

AGL Resources Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-1.0%

4.6%

-18

-18

PGN

01/10/05

-2.6%

Progress Energy, Inc.

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-6.2%

4.2%

-13

-13

 

 

 

      Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I. 

 

 

Table 3I

John Templeton Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

CPS

05/27/05

5.4%

ChoicePoint Inc.

Services

Business Services

-8.8%

-6.1%

-100

-100

CHD

11/18/05

4.7%

Church & Dwight Co., Inc.

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Personal & Household Products

-7.8%

-4.0%

-94

-94

FLIR

04/28/06

-3.1%

FLIR Systems, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-10.3%

-3.6%

-88

-88

EWBC

12/30/05

5.7%

East West Bancorp, Inc.

Financial

Regional Banks

-5.7%

-1.1%

-85

-85

MMM

05/12/06

-7.0%

3M Company

Conglomerates

Conglomerates

-7.6%

-4.5%

-85

-85

GTRC

03/03/06

-2.9%

Guitar Center, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-11.2%

-3.5%

-81

-81

LEN

05/19/06

-7.9%

Lennar Corporation

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-8.4%

-0.6%

-81

-81

BZH

06/16/06

0.0%

Beazer Homes USA, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

0.0%

-7.1%

-76

-76

AMSG

10/14/05

4.0%

AmSurg Corp.

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-11.0%

-5.9%

-75

-75

GISX

12/30/05

14.9%

Global Imaging Systems, Inc.

Technology

Office Equipment

-5.3%

1.3%

-71

-71

HHS

10/28/05

0.2%

Harte-Hanks, Inc.

Services

Printing & Publishing

-14.9%

-3.6%

-68

-68

JBHT

06/16/06

0.0%

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

0.0%

-1.5%

-66

-66

SPLS

05/26/06

3.3%

Staples, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-0.5%

0.9%

-61

-64

ORLY

01/20/06

3.1%

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-13.8%

-1.3%

-58

-58

LOW

11/18/05

-5.6%

Lowe's Companies, Inc.

Services

Retail (Home Improvement)

-10.3%

-0.6%

-52

-51

GBCI

05/05/06

-3.8%

Glacier Bancorp, Inc.

Financial

Regional Banks

-3.8%

2.0%

-50

-50

DGX

08/19/05

14.7%

Quest Diagnostics Incorporated

Health Care

Healthcare Facilities

-2.3%

-0.4%

-43

-43

MIK

12/30/05

7.2%

Michaels Stores, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-3.1%

-2.7%

-34

-34

HDI

02/24/06

1.0%

Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Recreational Products

-0.5%

8.1%

-15

-15

JNJ

02/17/06

4.4%

Johnson & Johnson

Health Care

Major Drugs

0.0%

0.5%

-2

-2

 

 

 

      Optionable stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J. 

 

 

Table 3J

Martin Zweig Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

FSH

05/05/06

-4.3%

Fisher Scientific International Inc.

Technology

Scientific & Technical Instruments

-8.4%

-5.0%

-91

-94

BTU

06/09/06

0.2%

Peabody Energy Corporation

Energy

Coal

-2.0%

-6.7%

-81

-81

ANF

04/13/06

-1.4%

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-12.1%

-7.9%

-78

-78

STRA

01/13/06

10.1%

Strayer Education, Inc.

Services

Schools

-9.2%

0.8%

-78

-78

GS

06/16/06

0.0%

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

0.0%

-3.6%

-75

-76

CRDN

06/09/06

1.9%

Ceradyne, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-0.9%

-2.6%

-66

-66

HTLD

01/27/06

3.3%

Heartland Express, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

-10.9%

2.8%

-65

-65

MRO

04/28/06

-6.1%

Marathon Oil Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-9.3%

-1.3%

-63

-63

MDU

01/27/06

0.8%

MDU Resources Group, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-5.7%

0.3%

-59

-59

TMTA

06/02/06

3.4%

Transmeta Corporation

Technology

Semiconductors

-11.0%

2.7%

-78

-55

SII

04/28/06

-4.1%

Smith International, Inc.

Energy

Oil Well Services & Equipment

-9.2%

0.4%

-52

-52

ERF

05/05/06

-3.7%

ENERPLUS RESOURCES FUND SR G TR UNITS

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-8.2%

5.8%

-49

-49

BSC

06/16/06

0.0%

The Bear Stearns Companies Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

0.0%

-0.3%

-50

-48

UCBH

04/13/06

-6.3%

UCBH Holdings, Inc.

Financial

Regional Banks

-8.7%

3.0%

-35

-35

ESI

11/04/05

9.1%

ITT Educational Services

Services

Schools

-1.3%

2.7%

-34

-34

LSTR

02/10/06

3.3%

Landstar System, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

-7.4%

6.0%

-34

-34

SKIL

06/02/06

4.4%

SkillSoft Public Limited Company

Technology

Computer Services

0.0%

10.7%

-12

-12

 

 

 

4.0           Results & Conclusions

 

      This section highlights trading performance.  Only a summary is provided here to save space.  Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the website.

 

 

 

Major Indices Year to Date

Relative to SMA 200

200 Day High Close

Relative to High

 

12/30/05

6/17/06

% Chg

06/17/06

Prior Week

DOW

10717.5

11,014.55

2.77%

1.18%

0.61%

11642.7

-5.40%

NASDAQ

2205.32

2,129.95

-3.42%

-4.47%

-3.81%

2370.88

-10.16%

S&P500

1248.29

1,251.54

0.26%

-0.77%

-0.19%

1325.76

-5.60%

Russell 2K

673.22

693.07

2.95%

-1.51%

0.55%

781.83

-11.35%

NYSE

7753.95

7933.86

2.32%

0.18%

1.09%

8646.96

-8.25%

Average

 

 

0.98%

-1.08%

-0.35%

 

-8.15%

 

4.1 Options Trading

 

Average Profit per Trade 2.04%

 

Average Hold Time 2.7 days

 

 

4.2 Stock Trading

 

 

Stock Trading for 2006 ($10.5K Initial Capital)

Number of Closed trades in 2006 =

8

 

Average Trade Size =

$1,000.00

 

Total Closed Position Share costs =

$8,000.00

 

Gross Profit on Closed Positions =

$642.66

8.0%

Number of Open Positions =

5

 

Gross Profit on Open Positions =

-$248.47

-5.0%

Broker Commission (Etrade) =

-$209.79

 

Subscription Cost to date =

-$60.00

 

Net Profit After Expenses =

$124.39

1.2%

Cash =

$6,142.66

 

 

 

 

 

Appendix - Investment Conference Schedule

        Below are links to conference registration sites where you can sign up.   

 

  • 06-21-06 through 06-23-06, San Francisco, CA, "Real Asset Investing Forum", This conference aims to provide education and information on real estate and hard assets to the key decision makers and other representatives of the nation's largest pension, endowment and foundation funds. Hard asset discussions will focus on, aside from Real Estate, reproducible assets such as buildings or machinery, and irreproducible assets such as land, a mine, or a work of art.

 

  • 06-28-06 through 06-30-06, Chicago, IL, The Morningstar® Investment Conference - one of the most respected and anticipated investment conferences of the year—drew more than 1,200 attendees and 130 exhibitors from across the United States in 2005. The focus of the three-day conference is solely on investing. The topics are current and the speakers and presenters are leaders in their field. Each attendee has the opportunity to gain knowledge and skills to better serve their clients.

 

  • 07-09-06 through 07-13-06, Harvard Business School Boston, Massachusetts, The 38th annual Investment Management Workshop provides a comprehensive, current perspective on the global investment management industry. Guided by faculty from Harvard Business School, senior-level executives are able to explore the topics — from sophisticated investment strategies and firm culture to market analysis and strategic decision making — that define the context and realities of the world in which they operate.

 

  • 08-07-06 through 08-09-06, Colorado Convention Center, Downtown Denver, 2006 Rocky Mountain Natural Gas Strategy Conference & Investment Forum, Energy technology is ever-evolving.  Now more than ever, necessity seeks invention.  But the risks we face in employing and balancing new and mature energy technologies have created a double-edged sword -- too much confidence and spin on one side, too much skepticism and demagoguery on the other.  Against the backdrop of unprecedented global interdependence and technological complexity, society is making macro-risk choices with little understanding of the consequences. The risks are growing harder to judge, much less quantify. While at the same time, the consequences of miscalculation are increasingly serious, interlocking and far ranging.  Put another way, what's the ratio of cars in China or hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico to drilling rigs in the Rockies?

 

 

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