______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 32 – June27, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
This week, two additional
layers of filtering are applied to all of our filters to come up with a
selection of intermediate term stock selections.
1.1 Advanced Filter
Last week the potential
makings for a super stock filter were pointed out. Such a filter would be
based on adding a second layer of EPS and sales growth requirements plus a
third layer of modified Stephen Cooper filtering criteria to the eight filters
in Section 3 plus other filters we use. The more stringent the filter
criteria, the smaller will be the number of stocks that pass.
Starting with all the
filters we use, requirements were added that the year over year sales growth must
be at least 25% and that sales growth must be greater than 2 times the industry
mean. The added Cooper criteria was relaxed somewhat. The stock must be within
10% of its 52 week high instead of at its 52 week high. It must still have a
relative strength of 90% and an EPS growth of 80%. But in addition, its EPS
growth must be twice the industry mean. The results are shown in Table 1A.
Table 1A
Advanced Filtering for Intermediate
Term Stocks
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
% of 52 Week High
|
26 Week Relative Strength
|
EPS Growth 12 Months
|
Sales Growth 12 Months
|
EPS Growth to Industry
|
Sales Growth to Industry
|
|
GW
|
05/27/05
|
11.1%
|
91.0%
|
90.0%
|
225.0%
|
67.1%
|
4.15
|
3.05
|
|
KOSP
|
05/27/05
|
10.0%
|
95.0%
|
95.0%
|
81.2%
|
73.8%
|
7.32
|
6.15
|
|
LSS
|
06/10/05
|
-0.8%
|
93.0%
|
91.0%
|
348.6%
|
85.2%
|
9.76
|
4.37
|
|
PCO
|
02/14/05
|
38.9%
|
99.0%
|
95.0%
|
259.0%
|
80.5%
|
5.69
|
2.65
|
|
TOL
|
05/27/05
|
8.0%
|
91.0%
|
94.0%
|
91.3%
|
56.7%
|
3.11
|
4.61
|
|
TS
|
01/10/05
|
67.0%
|
99.0%
|
95.0%
|
363.4%
|
45.6%
|
10.18
|
2.34
|
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web
site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
2.0
Market Analysis
The game of chicken played
between bulls and oil prices resulted in the bulls backing down with a sell off
on Thursday and Friday. Sustained high oil prices fostered doubt about second
quarter earnings and continued economic growth. A more cautious approach has
developed heading into earnings season. Expectations are for second
quarter operating earnings to be up about 7% from the same quarter last
year. That would be the slowest growth in two years. Profits were up
21% in the fourth quarter of last year, and 13% in the first quarter of this
year. This slowdown understandably raises concerns about the outlook for
the remainder of the year.
Industry leaders in Table 2A
rank from highest to lowest. Relative strength is given in Table 2B and VTO
market sentiment in Table 2C.
Table 2B
Relative Strength Index
|
Index
|
5
Day RSI
|
5
Week RSI
|
|
DOW
|
Oversold
|
Neutral
|
|
S&P
500
|
Oversold
|
Neutral
|
|
NASDAQ
|
Very
Oversold
|
Neutral
|
Table 2C
VTO Report on Market Sentiment
Indicators
|
Sentiment Indicator
|
Value
|
Last Week
|
2 Weeks Ago
|
Complacent
|
Cautious
|
|
VIX **
|
12.18
|
11.48
|
11.96
|
< 20
|
> 50
|
|
VXN ***
|
15.30
|
14.63
|
15.87
|
< 30
|
> 70
|
|
Put/Call Ratio
|
0.578
|
0.533
|
0.475
|
< 0.6
|
> 0.7
|
|
%Bulls - %Bears
|
33.7%
|
32.3%
|
29.7%
|
> 29%
|
< 20%
|
|
** Above 20 day SMA = Sell signal.
***
Above 20 day SMA = Sell signal.
|
Taking a look from the top
down in Table 2D, the major averages sold off. Only gold and utilities held
their ground.
Table 2D
Index Tracking Stocks, Key
Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month
|
1 wk ago
|
2 wks ago
|
3 wks ago
|
4 wks ago
|
|
SPY (S&P 500)
|
-1.1%
|
-2.0%
|
1.0%
|
0.0%
|
-0.1%
|
|
DIA (DOW)
|
-2.4%
|
-3.0%
|
0.8%
|
0.4%
|
-0.6%
|
|
QQQQ (NASDAQ 100)
|
-3.2%
|
-2.4%
|
0.9%
|
-1.4%
|
-0.3%
|
|
IWM (Russell 2000)
|
1.2%
|
-2.8%
|
2.5%
|
1.1%
|
0.5%
|
|
GLD, GOLD
|
4.8%
|
0.6%
|
2.4%
|
1.1%
|
0.7%
|
|
RKH, Banking
|
-1.1%
|
-1.4%
|
1.3%
|
-0.6%
|
-0.4%
|
|
IYT, Transportation
|
-5.9%
|
-5.2%
|
1.9%
|
-2.8%
|
0.3%
|
|
SMH, Semiconductors
|
-1.2%
|
-1.0%
|
-0.5%
|
-0.6%
|
0.8%
|
|
BBH, Biotechnology
|
-1.2%
|
-2.2%
|
2.0%
|
-0.6%
|
-0.3%
|
|
IYR, Real Estate
|
3.0%
|
-3.4%
|
2.7%
|
2.3%
|
1.5%
|
|
OIH, Oil
|
10.2%
|
-1.0%
|
4.7%
|
4.1%
|
2.2%
|
|
XLE,
Energy
|
7.0%
|
-2.0%
|
5.0%
|
2.4%
|
1.5%
|
|
XLB,
Materials
|
-2.5%
|
-5.1%
|
2.4%
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
|
XLU,
Utilities
|
3.6%
|
0.8%
|
0.5%
|
0.8%
|
1.5%
|
|
XLI,
Industrial
|
-3.4%
|
-3.5%
|
0.7%
|
-0.2%
|
-0.4%
|
|
XLK,
Technology
|
-1.6%
|
-1.5%
|
0.6%
|
-0.4%
|
-0.3%
|
|
XLV,
Healthcare
|
-0.9%
|
-1.8%
|
1.7%
|
-0.4%
|
-0.4%
|
|
XLF,
Financials
|
-0.1%
|
-1.1%
|
1.0%
|
0.2%
|
-0.2%
|
|
XLP,
Consumer Staples
|
-2.8%
|
-2.4%
|
-0.3%
|
0.1%
|
-0.2%
|
|
XLY,
Consumer Discretionary
|
-0.8%
|
-2.5%
|
1.7%
|
0.3%
|
-0.2%
|
Figure 1 compares index
tracking stocks for the major averages with Sector SPDR’s. Figure 2 compares
index tracking stocks with key industry ETF’s and the five leading ETF’s for
the week. Key industry ETF’s are Biotech and Semiconductors which confirm the
NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to
Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P
500. Gold and Real Estate are respective indicators for health of the currency
and the economy in general.
The strength of the late
week sell off is apparent for all except utilities and treasuries.
FIGURE 1
FIGURE 2
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. The “Reference”
is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was added to or
returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since a
stock first passed the filter. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being
listed are removed. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined
from the maximum price reached after a stock first passed the filter. Stocks
that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks
that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed. More
information on filters is available on the web site. Send an email
if you need more details.
Key
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3A. These stocks should also appear in one of the Master
Trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious
consideration. ONXS, OSHC, TAGS, TRCA and VSTA were removed because they did
not pass the most recent screening.
Table 3A
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ACAD
|
04/29/05
|
23.3%
|
ACADIA
Pharmaceuticals Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-1.3%
|
|
AETH
|
06/17/05
|
0.0%
|
Aether
Systems, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
-3.3%
|
|
AFT
|
05/20/05
|
-5.8%
|
Axesstel,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-9.5%
|
|
ASPV
|
05/27/05
|
12.3%
|
Aspreva
Pharmaceuticals Corporation
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.6%
|
|
FTD
|
04/08/05
|
-5.9%
|
FTD Group,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Catalog & Mail Order)
|
-6.1%
|
|
FVRL
|
04/22/05
|
6.6%
|
Favrille,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-1.7%
|
|
ATPL
|
06/24/05
|
0.0%
|
Atlantis
Plastics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Fabricated
Plastic & Rubber
|
0.0%
|
|
IPSU
|
05/20/05
|
-0.8%
|
Imperial
Sugar Company
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Food
Processing
|
-4.7%
|
|
SSAG
|
05/24/05
|
0.0%
|
SSA Global
Technologies, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
0.0%
|
|
IRN
|
05/20/05
|
-2.5%
|
Rewards
Network Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-4.5%
|
|
ITMN
|
04/08/05
|
19.6%
|
InterMune,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
|
JRCC
|
06/17/05
|
-1.2%
|
James
River Coal Company
|
Energy
|
Coal
|
-1.2%
|
|
KIRK
|
05/27/05
|
-2.1%
|
Kirkland's, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-6.5%
|
|
MERCS
|
05/20/05
|
-2.8%
|
Mercer
International Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Paper
& Paper Products
|
-2.8%
|
|
MWY
|
05/20/05
|
12.3%
|
Midway
Games Inc.
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
-5.8%
|
|
THLD
|
05/06/05
|
6.5%
|
Threshold
Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-1.8%
|
|
ZHNE
|
05/06/05
|
33.1%
|
Zhone
Technologies, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-0.3%
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table
3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the Master Trader screens or
meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. ACP,
CFNB, FDRY, MFW, NCTY and VNUS were removed from this list because they did not
pass the most recent screening. WSC was removed because it declined more than
10% from its original listing price.
Table 3B
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
CDCO
|
04/22/05
|
0.9%
|
COMDISCO
HLDG CO INC
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
-2.0%
|
|
CLCT
|
05/20/05
|
1.9%
|
Collectors
Universe, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-3.4%
|
|
DITC
|
06/03/05
|
-4.0%
|
Ditech
Communications
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-7.0%
|
|
EXAR
|
05/20/05
|
11.2%
|
Exar
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
-6.0%
|
|
EXM
|
05/27/05
|
-5.0%
|
Excel
Maritime Carriers
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
-13.0%
|
|
HWG
|
06/03/05
|
8.6%
|
The
Hallwood Group Incorporated
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Textiles -
Non-Apparel
|
-10.4%
|
|
KEYN
|
05/13/05
|
10.5%
|
Keynote
Systems, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-4.8%
|
|
WZEN
|
04/22/05
|
1.7%
|
Webzen
Inc. (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-6.4%
|
When a stock did not pass
the most recent filtering, it makes you wonder what has changed. In the case
of insider buying in Table 3A, it may mean that the number of insider sales has
increased significantly. For cash rich companies in Table 3B, failure to pass
the most recent filter could mean that the cash is gone.
For the screen in
Table 3C, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having P/E’s
greater than 30.
Table 3C
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ADVNB
|
05/20/05
|
6.9%
|
Advanta
Corp.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-3.8%
|
|
BDK
|
04/29/05
|
6.4%
|
The Black
& Decker Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-2.0%
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
-1.0%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-12.3%
|
|
CRAI
|
03/18/05
|
4.2%
|
CRA
International, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-7.3%
|
|
HOV
|
06/17/05
|
-6.0%
|
Hovnanian
Enterprises
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-6.0%
|
|
KBH
|
06/17/05
|
-6.8%
|
KB Home
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-6.8%
|
|
LEN
|
06/17/05
|
-3.3%
|
Lennar
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-3.5%
|
|
ORCC
|
05/06/05
|
16.4%
|
Online
Resources Corp.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
-2.9%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-7.6%
|
|
PNR
|
05/06/05
|
1.4%
|
Pentair,
Inc.
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-9.1%
|
|
PTRY
|
04/29/05
|
13.1%
|
The
Pantry, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
-10.1%
|
|
SAY
|
06/17/05
|
-1.2%
|
Satyam Computer
(ADR)
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
-4.1%
|
|
SFY
|
04/22/05
|
24.8%
|
Swift
Energy Company
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-4.2%
|
|
SGK
|
05/13/05
|
28.0%
|
Schawk,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Printing
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
SPF
|
05/06/05
|
10.1%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-5.9%
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
-2.9%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-4.2%
|
|
TDY
|
04/29/05
|
4.7%
|
Teledyne
Technologies Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-7.9%
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
10.0%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-1.1%
|
|
WOS
|
04/01/05
|
-0.2%
|
Wolseley
plc (ADR)
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-3.3%
|
|
ZNT
|
04/15/05
|
23.3%
|
Zenith
National Insurance Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-3.0%
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30. BLSC was removed because it fell back more than 15%
from its high after being listed.
Table 3D
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
CAJ
|
01/31/05
|
2.9%
|
Canon Inc.
(ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-2.3%
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
10.9%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-2.1%
|
|
GMK
|
05/06/05
|
12.7%
|
Gruma S.A.
de C.V. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Food
Processing
|
-7.4%
|
|
KEP
|
12/13/04
|
22.9%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-2.3%
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
11.7%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-1.8%
|
|
LFL
|
05/13/05
|
3.3%
|
Lan
Airlines S.A. (ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Airline
|
-2.2%
|
|
MKTAY
|
04/15/05
|
16.4%
|
Makita
Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-5.3%
|
|
NHY
|
04/29/05
|
15.2%
|
Norsk
Hydro ASA (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
0.0%
|
|
NTE
|
05/06/05
|
4.0%
|
Nam Tai
Electronics, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Electronic
Instruments & Controls
|
-6.3%
|
|
PKX
|
04/29/05
|
-3.9%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-8.2%
|
|
RD
|
04/29/05
|
8.6%
|
Royal
Dutch Petroleum Company (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-0.4%
|
|
SAB
|
05/13/05
|
0.8%
|
Grupo Casa
Saba, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Personal
& Household Products
|
-0.3%
|
|
SC
|
04/29/05
|
5.5%
|
Shell
Transport & Trading (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-0.3%
|
|
SHI
|
06/03/05
|
-0.2%
|
Sinopec
Shanghai Petrochemical Co. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-4.5%
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
3.8%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-4.2%
|
|
TKS
|
04/15/05
|
-3.9%
|
Tomkins
plc (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-4.9%
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
-4.4%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-12.4%
|
|
TMX
|
06/03/05
|
-0.1%
|
Telefonos
de Mexico, S.A. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-2.3%
|
|
TP
|
05/27/05
|
-5.2%
|
TNT N.V.
(ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-5.2%
|
|
VCP
|
05/06/05
|
1.1%
|
Votorantim
Celulose e Papel S.A (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Forestry
& Wood Products
|
-1.5%
|
|
VLCCF
|
06/03/05
|
3.3%
|
Knightsbridge
Tankers Limited
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
-2.9%
|
|
YPF
|
04/15/05
|
11.4%
|
YPF
Sociedad Anonima S.A. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-2.2%
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3E is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3E
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
-2.0%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-7.7%
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
6.0%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-2.5%
|
|
APPB
|
04/29/05
|
7.0%
|
Applebee's
Int'l, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-6.3%
|
|
CACH
|
04/29/05
|
55.7%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
-1.2%
|
|
DHI
|
04/15/05
|
32.5%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-4.8%
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
-6.0%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-10.1%
|
|
ELBO
|
01/31/05
|
78.9%
|
Electronics
Boutique Holdings Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Technology)
|
-1.8%
|
|
FOSL
|
05/13/05
|
6.9%
|
Fossil,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Jewelry
& Silverware
|
-4.3%
|
|
HDI
|
04/15/05
|
11.0%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-1.4%
|
|
HELE
|
05/20/05
|
10.0%
|
Helen of
Troy Limited
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
0.0%
|
|
HOV
|
06/24/05
|
0.0%
|
Hovnanian
Enterprises
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
2.0%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-6.5%
|
|
LXK
|
04/29/05
|
-4.5%
|
Lexmark
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-4.6%
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
-4.7%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-14.5%
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
18.7%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-0.6%
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
-2.7%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
-8.9%
|
|
SRT
|
05/06/05
|
34.4%
|
StarTek,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
STLD
|
05/20/05
|
-8.2%
|
Steel
Dynamics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-13.3%
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
13.3%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
-6.8%
|
|
TLK
|
04/29/05
|
12.8%
|
PT
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-7.5%
|
|
TSCO
|
04/22/05
|
16.8%
|
Tractor
Supply Company
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
-3.5%
|
The stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3F. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3F
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ATG
|
04/29/05
|
7.5%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-1.3%
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
5.8%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-1.3%
|
|
CEG
|
04/29/05
|
8.1%
|
Constellation
Energy Group
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
16.3%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-1.4%
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
32.6%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-2.3%
|
|
NFG
|
04/08/05
|
-0.5%
|
National
Fuel Gas Co.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-3.1%
|
|
OKE
|
04/15/05
|
10.5%
|
ONEOK,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-1.2%
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
1.6%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-1.3%
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
2.8%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-1.5%
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
12.4%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-3.7%
|
|
UU
|
06/10/05
|
-0.3%
|
United
Utilities PLC (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-1.1%
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
8.6%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-1.3%
|
The stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing
are listed in Table 3G.
Table 3G
John Templeton Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
BBBY
|
06/24/05
|
0.0%
|
Bed Bath
& Beyond Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
BRO
|
05/27/05
|
0.5%
|
Brown
& Brown, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Miscellaneous)
|
-4.0%
|
|
CACH
|
05/27/05
|
32.2%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
-1.2%
|
|
CPS
|
05/27/05
|
-5.2%
|
ChoicePoint
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-6.8%
|
|
DGX
|
05/27/05
|
-0.4%
|
Quest
Diagnostics Incorporated
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-1.3%
|
|
EASI
|
06/03/05
|
0.6%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-3.9%
|
|
EDMC
|
06/03/05
|
-1.7%
|
Education
Management Corp
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-6.7%
|
|
FCBP
|
05/27/05
|
4.1%
|
First
Community Banc./CA/
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-2.3%
|
|
HDI
|
05/27/05
|
1.9%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-1.4%
|
|
JNJ
|
05/27/05
|
-2.7%
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
Health
Care
|
Major
Drugs
|
-2.7%
|
|
MBT
|
06/17/05
|
-1.2%
|
Mobile
TeleSystems OJSC (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-1.9%
|
|
MTB
|
05/27/05
|
1.4%
|
M&T
Bank Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-2.0%
|
|
SFG
|
05/27/05
|
1.1%
|
StanCorp
Financial Group, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Life)
|
-0.9%
|
|
SNV
|
05/27/05
|
-2.4%
|
Synovus
Financial Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-3.2%
|
|
SQM
|
05/27/05
|
21.9%
|
Sociedad
Quimica y Minera (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical Manufacturing
|
0.0%
|
|
SYY
|
05/27/05
|
-3.7%
|
SYSCO
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
-4.9%
|
|
WMAR
|
05/27/05
|
10.8%
|
West
Marine, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-4.2%
|
|
WSM
|
05/27/05
|
0.8%
|
Williams-Sonoma,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-4.9%
|
The stocks from Martin
Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3H. ABNS was removed because it
declined more than 15% from its high after being listed. CMTL was removed
because it declined more than 10% from its initial price.
Table 3H
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
APA
|
05/27/05
|
11.1%
|
Apache
Corporation
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-3.4%
|
|
AQNT
|
05/27/05
|
16.6%
|
aQuantive
Inc.
|
Services
|
Advertising
|
-3.1%
|
|
BMHC
|
05/27/05
|
3.9%
|
Building Materials
Holding Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
-10.5%
|
|
CAE
|
06/10/05
|
0.5%
|
Cascade
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-5.7%
|
|
CLFC
|
05/27/05
|
14.5%
|
Center
Financial Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
0.0%
|
|
DHI
|
05/27/05
|
3.1%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-4.8%
|
|
EPL
|
05/27/05
|
12.7%
|
Energy
Partners, Ltd.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-2.1%
|
|
EXP
|
05/27/05
|
-1.1%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
-5.7%
|
|
FORD
|
06/24/05
|
0.0%
|
Forward
Industries, Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Apparel/Accessories
|
0.0%
|
|
KBH
|
06/17/05
|
-6.8%
|
KB Home
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-6.8%
|
|
LEN
|
05/27/05
|
6.4%
|
Lennar
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-3.5%
|
|
MKL
|
05/27/05
|
-2.5%
|
Markel
Corporation
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-2.5%
|
|
MPAC
|
05/27/05
|
11.0%
|
MOD-PAC
CORP.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Paper
& Paper Products
|
-0.3%
|
|
NICK
|
05/27/05
|
0.7%
|
Nicholas
Financial Inc.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-7.6%
|
|
NOBH
|
05/27/05
|
10.1%
|
Nobility
Homes, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-2.0%
|
|
POOL
|
06/10/05
|
-0.9%
|
SCP Pool
Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-7.8%
|
|
RESP
|
06/03/05
|
3.8%
|
Respironics,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-3.7%
|
|
RIMG
|
05/27/05
|
-8.2%
|
Rimage
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Computer Peripherals
|
-8.2%
|
|
SPF
|
05/27/05
|
4.5%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-5.9%
|
|
TOL
|
05/27/05
|
8.0%
|
Toll
Brothers, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-5.9%
|
|
VSEC
|
05/27/05
|
0.9%
|
VSE
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-6.9%
|
|
ZQK
|
05/27/05
|
0.0%
|
Quiksilver,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Apparel/Accessories
|
-6.2%
|
4.0
Results
This section highlights
performance of stocks and options trades. Only a summary is provided here to
save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the website.
Stock Trades
|
No. of Closed trades in 2005 =
|
28
|
(1.1 Trades per Week)
|
|
Average Trade Size =
|
$1,000.00
|
|
|
Total Share costs =
|
$28,000.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit on Closed Positions=
|
$1,181.24
|
( 4.2%)
|
|
Profit on Open Positions =
|
$716.33
|
( 6.0%)
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$559.44
|
(-2.0%)
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$60.00
|
(-0.2%)
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$1,278.13
|
|
Option Trades
|
Number of trades in 2005 =
|
40
|
(1.5 Trades per Week)
|
|
Number of contracts per trade =
|
2
|
|
|
Avg. Premium Cost per trade =
|
$1,310.65
|
|
|
Total Premium costs =
|
$52,426.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit =
|
$7,181.32
|
(13.7%)
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$1,174.06
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$360.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$5,647.86
|
(Avg.
holding period 9.5 days)
|
5.0 Conclusion
Performance since the
beginning of 2005 based on 10% of capital per trade:
Growth in Total Capital in 2005
|
Stock
Advisory
|
+9.8%
|
|
Options
Advisory
|
+51.0%
|
|
Major Indices through 06/25/05
|
|
DOW
|
-4.5%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
-5.6%
|
|
S&P500
|
-1.7%
|
|
Russell
2000
|
-3.2%
|
Appendix
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