______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 34 – July 11, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
It is useful to know when
money is moving into or out of a stock, industry or sector. Below is a method
for estimating relative money movement on an intraday and daily basis without
relying on proprietary services.
1.1 Money Movement
Major movement of money
depends mostly on what large fund managers are doing. The trading volume of
individual investors is smaller by comparison. It is commonly accepted that
when a stock’s price is increasing, money is flowing into the stock. While the
price is rising, more money is being paid for a given number of shares traded.
Likewise, when a stock’s price is decreasing, money is flowing out of the
stock. The strength of money flow is modulated by the daily trading volume.
By multiplying the percentage price change by the percent of average daily
trading volume, one has a relative measure of money flow. The larger the
percentage change in price times the percent of average volume, the greater the
relative money flow.
This measurement works not
just for individual stocks, but also for various domestic stock and bond indices,
foreign stock indices, industries and sectors that are tracked by Exchange
Traded Funds (ETF’s). Most ETF’s are traded on the American Stock Exchange. A
comprehensive list of ETF’s can be found at the NASDAQ website by clicking on
the link http://quotes.nasdaq.com/asp/ETFsCompare.asp.
Here one can download the entire list of 175 or so ETF’s in a spreadsheet
format.
If one uses Microsoft
Excel, an application named XLQ can be added to
update price and volume continuously and automatically from Yahoo.com and
MSN.com. The spreadsheet can then be sorted by rows according to the size of
the resulting %price x %volume product. Shifts in money flow are indicated by positive
inflows in one area matched by negative outflows in other areas. Strong
movements in the broader market are reflected by nearly all the %price x
%volume products having the same algebraic sign.
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations made
by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web site
are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
2.0
Market Analysis
The
market is euphoric about a number of things - jobs, the swift recovery after
the London terrorist attacks, a few dollars pull back in oil prices, G8
solidarity, etc. Earnings got off to a good initial start. If oil
traders read this as an economic spurt in demand, oil prices may surge once again
causing stocks to turn south. It’s more a matter of when than if.
Industry leaders in Table 2A
rank from highest to lowest. Relative strength is given in Table 2B and VTO
market sentiment in Table 2C.
Table 2B
Relative Strength Index
|
|
5 Day RSI
|
|
DOW
|
Neutral
|
|
S&P
500
|
Neutral
|
|
NASDAQ
|
Neutral
|
Table 2C
VTO Market Sentiment Indicators
|
Sentiment Indicator
|
Value
|
Last Week
|
2 Weeks Ago
|
Complacent
|
Cautious
|
|
VIX **
|
11.45
|
11.40
|
12.18
|
< 20
|
> 50
|
|
VXN ***
|
13.80
|
14.27
|
15.30
|
< 30
|
> 70
|
|
Put/Call Ratio
|
0.424
|
0.554
|
0.578
|
< 0.6
|
> 0.7
|
|
%Bulls - %Bears
|
32.1%
|
36.0%
|
33.7%
|
> 29%
|
< 20%
|
|
** Below 20 day SMA = Buy signal.
***
Below 20 day SMA = Buy signal.
|
Taking a look from the top
down in Table 2D, the broader market rose during the week.
Table 2D
Index Tracking Stocks, Key
Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month
|
1 wk ago
|
2 wks ago
|
3 wks ago
|
4 wks ago
|
|
SPY (S&P 500)
|
0.9%
|
1.5%
|
0.5%
|
-2.0%
|
1.0%
|
|
DIA (DOW)
|
-0.6%
|
1.4%
|
0.3%
|
-3.0%
|
0.8%
|
|
QQQQ (NASDAQ 100)
|
0.6%
|
2.8%
|
-0.6%
|
-2.4%
|
0.9%
|
|
IWM (Russell 2000)
|
5.6%
|
3.1%
|
2.8%
|
-2.8%
|
2.5%
|
|
GLD, GOLD
|
-0.8%
|
-1.0%
|
-2.7%
|
0.6%
|
2.4%
|
|
RKH, Banking
|
0.3%
|
0.8%
|
-0.4%
|
-1.4%
|
1.3%
|
|
IYT, Transportation
|
1.2%
|
2.2%
|
2.6%
|
-5.2%
|
1.9%
|
|
SMH, Semiconductors
|
2.7%
|
5.1%
|
-0.9%
|
-1.0%
|
-0.5%
|
|
BBH, Biotechnology
|
5.9%
|
5.5%
|
0.6%
|
-2.2%
|
2.0%
|
|
IYR, Real Estate
|
3.8%
|
2.5%
|
2.1%
|
-3.4%
|
2.7%
|
|
OIH, Oil
|
4.9%
|
1.2%
|
0.0%
|
-1.0%
|
4.7%
|
|
XLE,
Energy
|
5.9%
|
1.8%
|
1.1%
|
-2.0%
|
5.0%
|
|
XLB,
Materials
|
-1.6%
|
2.1%
|
-0.8%
|
-5.1%
|
2.4%
|
|
XLU,
Utilities
|
4.1%
|
0.4%
|
2.3%
|
0.8%
|
0.5%
|
|
XLI,
Industrial
|
-1.1%
|
1.2%
|
0.6%
|
-3.5%
|
0.7%
|
|
XLK,
Technology
|
1.4%
|
2.4%
|
-0.1%
|
-1.5%
|
0.6%
|
|
XLV,
Healthcare
|
0.4%
|
0.9%
|
-0.4%
|
-1.8%
|
1.7%
|
|
XLF,
Financials
|
1.8%
|
1.3%
|
0.6%
|
-1.1%
|
1.0%
|
|
XLP,
Consumer Staples
|
-1.6%
|
0.7%
|
0.4%
|
-2.4%
|
-0.3%
|
|
XLY,
Consumer Discretionary
|
1.1%
|
1.9%
|
0.1%
|
-2.5%
|
1.7%
|
Figure 1 compares index tracking
stocks for the major averages with Sector SPDR’s. Figure 2 compares index
tracking stocks with key industry ETF’s and the five leading ETF’s for the
week. Key industry ETF’s are Biotech and Semiconductors which confirm the
NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to
Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P
500. Gold and Real Estate are respective indicators for the inverse health of
the currency and the economy in general.
FIGURE 1
FIGURE 2
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. The “Reference”
is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was added to or
returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since a
stock first passed the filter. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being
listed are removed. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined
from the maximum price reached after a stock first passed the filter. Stocks
that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks
that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed. More
information on filters is available on the web site. Send an email
if you need more details.
Key
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3A. These stocks should also appear in one of the master
trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious
consideration. ZHNE was removed because it decline more than 15% from its
highest price after being listed.
Table 3A
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ACAD
|
04/29/05
|
20.6%
|
ACADIA
Pharmaceuticals Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-3.4%
|
|
AETH
|
06/17/05
|
7.4%
|
Aether
Systems, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
0.0%
|
|
AFT
|
05/20/05
|
-8.2%
|
Axesstel,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-11.8%
|
|
ASPV
|
05/27/05
|
3.7%
|
Aspreva
Pharmaceuticals Corporation
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-11.4%
|
|
ATPL
|
07/01/05
|
0.5%
|
Atlantis
Plastics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Fabricated
Plastic & Rubber
|
-2.7%
|
|
CRTX
|
07/01/05
|
0.6%
|
Critical
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.9%
|
|
FTD
|
04/08/05
|
-0.4%
|
FTD Group,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Catalog & Mail Order)
|
-0.6%
|
|
FVRL
|
04/22/05
|
15.5%
|
Favrille,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.9%
|
|
IPSU
|
05/20/05
|
-7.0%
|
Imperial
Sugar Company
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Food
Processing
|
-10.7%
|
|
IRN
|
05/20/05
|
4.4%
|
Rewards
Network Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
ITMN
|
04/08/05
|
36.0%
|
InterMune,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
|
KIRK
|
05/27/05
|
2.6%
|
Kirkland's, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-2.0%
|
|
MERCS
|
05/20/05
|
-6.1%
|
Mercer
International Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Paper
& Paper Products
|
-6.1%
|
|
PCTY
|
07/08/05
|
0.0%
|
Party City
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
RGN
|
07/01/05
|
-1.7%
|
RegeneRx
Biopharmaceut.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-3.1%
|
|
SCLN
|
07/01/05
|
-0.2%
|
SciClone
Pharmaceuticals
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-0.2%
|
|
STLW
|
07/08/05
|
0.0%
|
Stratos
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
0.0%
|
|
THLD
|
07/08/05
|
0.0%
|
Threshold
Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table
3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or
meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. CDCO
was removed because of its Over the Counter status making it difficult to
update the data. Its price performance is still in line with requirements for
being listed here. EXM declined more than 15% from its highest price after
being listed and was removed.
Table 3B
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
CLCT
|
05/20/05
|
3.4%
|
Collectors
Universe, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-3.1%
|
|
DITC
|
06/03/05
|
-1.3%
|
Ditech
Communications
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-4.4%
|
|
HWG
|
06/03/05
|
16.6%
|
The
Hallwood Group Incorporated
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Textiles -
Non-Apparel
|
-3.8%
|
|
KEYN
|
05/13/05
|
25.4%
|
Keynote
Systems, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
WSC
|
07/01/05
|
-1.0%
|
Wesco
Financial Corporation
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-1.0%
|
|
WZEN
|
04/22/05
|
9.4%
|
Webzen
Inc. (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
For the screen in
Table 3C, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30.
Table 3C
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ADVNB
|
05/20/05
|
17.0%
|
Advanta
Corp.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
0.0%
|
|
BDK
|
04/29/05
|
8.7%
|
The Black
& Decker Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
0.0%
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
10.7%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-2.0%
|
|
CRAI
|
03/18/05
|
7.3%
|
CRA
International, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-4.6%
|
|
HOV
|
06/17/05
|
3.1%
|
Hovnanian
Enterprises
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
KBH
|
06/17/05
|
2.6%
|
KB Home
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
LEN
|
06/17/05
|
3.4%
|
Lennar
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
ORCC
|
05/06/05
|
10.6%
|
Online
Resources Corp.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-7.2%
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
2.8%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-2.3%
|
|
PNR
|
05/06/05
|
5.7%
|
Pentair,
Inc.
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-5.3%
|
|
PTRY
|
04/29/05
|
35.8%
|
The
Pantry, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
0.0%
|
|
SAY
|
06/17/05
|
3.3%
|
Satyam
Computer (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
0.0%
|
|
SFY
|
04/22/05
|
38.9%
|
Swift
Energy Company
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-0.2%
|
|
SGK
|
05/13/05
|
14.3%
|
Schawk,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Printing
Services
|
-10.7%
|
|
SPF
|
05/06/05
|
21.4%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
-6.9%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-8.1%
|
|
TDY
|
04/29/05
|
13.3%
|
Teledyne
Technologies Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-0.3%
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
13.8%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-0.8%
|
|
WOS
|
04/01/05
|
-3.4%
|
Wolseley
plc (ADR)
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-6.4%
|
|
ZNT
|
04/15/05
|
29.6%
|
Zenith
National Insurance Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
0.0%
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30.
Table 3D
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
CAJ
|
01/31/05
|
1.5%
|
Canon Inc.
(ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-3.7%
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
6.0%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-6.5%
|
|
GMK
|
05/06/05
|
20.6%
|
Gruma S.A.
de C.V. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Food
Processing
|
-1.5%
|
|
KEP
|
12/13/04
|
13.8%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-9.5%
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
21.1%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
0.0%
|
|
LFL
|
05/13/05
|
2.2%
|
Lan
Airlines S.A. (ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Airline
|
-3.3%
|
|
MKTAY
|
04/15/05
|
11.7%
|
Makita
Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-9.2%
|
|
NHY
|
04/29/05
|
24.8%
|
Norsk
Hydro ASA (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
0.0%
|
|
NTE
|
05/06/05
|
7.3%
|
Nam Tai
Electronics, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Electronic
Instruments & Controls
|
-3.4%
|
|
PKX
|
04/29/05
|
-0.2%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-4.6%
|
|
RD
|
04/29/05
|
12.8%
|
Royal
Dutch Petroleum Company (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-2.0%
|
|
SAB
|
05/13/05
|
-1.1%
|
Grupo Casa
Saba, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Personal
& Household Products
|
-2.1%
|
|
SC
|
04/29/05
|
9.1%
|
Shell Transport
& Trading (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-2.2%
|
|
SHI
|
06/03/05
|
1.3%
|
Sinopec
Shanghai Petrochemical Co. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-3.0%
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
1.0%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-6.7%
|
|
TKS
|
04/15/05
|
-6.3%
|
Tomkins
plc (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-7.3%
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
-1.9%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-10.1%
|
|
TMX
|
06/03/05
|
4.0%
|
Telefonos
de Mexico, S.A. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
TP
|
05/27/05
|
-6.1%
|
TNT N.V.
(ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-6.1%
|
|
VCP
|
05/06/05
|
-8.3%
|
Votorantim
Celulose e Papel S.A (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Forestry
& Wood Products
|
-10.6%
|
|
VLCCF
|
06/03/05
|
7.7%
|
Knightsbridge
Tankers Limited
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
0.0%
|
|
YPF
|
04/15/05
|
15.3%
|
YPF
Sociedad Anonima S.A. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
0.0%
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3E is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3E
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
10.9%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
0.0%
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
8.5%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-0.3%
|
|
APPB
|
04/29/05
|
1.7%
|
Applebee's
Int'l, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-10.9%
|
|
CACH
|
04/29/05
|
60.6%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
DHI
|
04/15/05
|
48.5%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
-3.6%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-7.9%
|
|
ELBO
|
01/31/05
|
86.2%
|
Electronics
Boutique Holdings Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Technology)
|
0.0%
|
|
FOSL
|
05/13/05
|
18.5%
|
Fossil,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Jewelry
& Silverware
|
-2.1%
|
|
HDI
|
04/15/05
|
8.6%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-3.6%
|
|
HELE
|
05/20/05
|
12.8%
|
Helen of
Troy Limited
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-0.2%
|
|
HOV
|
06/24/05
|
9.6%
|
Hovnanian
Enterprises
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
-1.3%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-9.6%
|
|
LXK
|
04/29/05
|
-6.8%
|
Lexmark
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-6.9%
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
0.8%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-9.6%
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
18.7%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-0.6%
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
0.6%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
-5.8%
|
|
SRT
|
05/06/05
|
33.1%
|
StarTek,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-2.1%
|
|
STLD
|
05/20/05
|
2.7%
|
Steel
Dynamics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-3.0%
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
26.7%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
0.0%
|
|
TLK
|
04/29/05
|
14.8%
|
PT Telekomunikasi
Indonesia (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-5.8%
|
|
TSCO
|
04/22/05
|
20.3%
|
Tractor
Supply Company
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
-0.5%
|
The stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3F. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3F - Benjamin Graham Utility
Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ATG
|
04/29/05
|
11.6%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-1.2%
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
9.2%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
CEG
|
04/29/05
|
11.1%
|
Constellation
Energy Group
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-0.1%
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
17.4%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.6%
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
22.8%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-9.5%
|
|
NFG
|
04/08/05
|
3.1%
|
National
Fuel Gas Co.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.2%
|
|
OKE
|
04/15/05
|
15.9%
|
ONEOK,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
2.2%
|
Progress Energy,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-1.5%
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
4.2%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-0.3%
|
|
SJI
|
07/01/05
|
0.2%
|
South
Jersey Industries
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-3.6%
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
16.2%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural Gas
Utilities
|
-0.4%
|
|
UU
|
06/10/05
|
-4.1%
|
United
Utilities PLC (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-4.9%
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
10.8%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-0.7%
|
The stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing
are listed in Table 3G.
Table 3G - John Templeton Watch
List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
BBBY
|
06/24/05
|
5.5%
|
Bed Bath
& Beyond Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
BRO
|
05/27/05
|
1.0%
|
Brown
& Brown, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Miscellaneous)
|
-3.5%
|
|
CACH
|
05/27/05
|
36.4%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
CPS
|
05/27/05
|
-0.2%
|
ChoicePoint
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-1.8%
|
|
DGX
|
05/27/05
|
-0.4%
|
Quest
Diagnostics Incorporated
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-1.3%
|
|
EASI
|
06/03/05
|
3.4%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-1.2%
|
|
EDMC
|
06/03/05
|
1.4%
|
Education
Management Corp
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-3.7%
|
|
FCBP
|
05/27/05
|
6.8%
|
First
Community Banc./CA/
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-2.0%
|
|
HDI
|
05/27/05
|
-0.3%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-3.6%
|
|
JNJ
|
05/27/05
|
-4.7%
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
Health
Care
|
Major
Drugs
|
-4.7%
|
|
MBT
|
06/17/05
|
9.0%
|
Mobile
TeleSystems OJSC (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
MTB
|
05/27/05
|
3.3%
|
M&T
Bank Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-0.1%
|
|
SFG
|
05/27/05
|
5.2%
|
StanCorp
Financial Group, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Life)
|
0.0%
|
|
SNV
|
05/27/05
|
-0.8%
|
Synovus
Financial Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-1.6%
|
|
SQM
|
05/27/05
|
22.9%
|
Sociedad
Quimica y Minera (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
0.0%
|
|
SYY
|
05/27/05
|
-2.2%
|
SYSCO
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
-3.4%
|
|
WMAR
|
05/27/05
|
6.1%
|
West
Marine, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-8.3%
|
|
WSM
|
05/27/05
|
5.2%
|
Williams-Sonoma,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-0.8%
|
The stocks from Martin
Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3H.
Table 3H
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ABNS
|
07/01/05
|
-1.4%
|
ALLIANCE BANCSHS CALIF
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-1.4%
|
|
APA
|
05/27/05
|
17.4%
|
Apache
Corporation
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-0.3%
|
|
AQNT
|
05/27/05
|
26.0%
|
aQuantive
Inc.
|
Services
|
Advertising
|
0.0%
|
|
BMHC
|
05/27/05
|
21.3%
|
Building
Materials Holding Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
0.0%
|
|
CAE
|
06/10/05
|
8.2%
|
Cascade
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
0.0%
|
|
CLFC
|
05/27/05
|
20.0%
|
Center
Financial Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
0.0%
|
|
CMTL
|
07/01/05
|
5.2%
|
Comtech
Telecomm. Corp.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
0.0%
|
|
DHI
|
05/27/05
|
15.6%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
EPL
|
05/27/05
|
18.5%
|
Energy
Partners, Ltd.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-0.7%
|
|
EXP
|
05/27/05
|
8.0%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
0.0%
|
|
FORD
|
06/24/05
|
6.7%
|
Forward
Industries, Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Apparel/Accessories
|
-2.8%
|
|
KBH
|
06/17/05
|
2.6%
|
KB Home
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
LEN
|
05/27/05
|
13.8%
|
Lennar
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
MKL
|
05/27/05
|
-1.4%
|
Markel
Corporation
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-2.5%
|
|
MPAC
|
05/27/05
|
9.8%
|
MOD-PAC
CORP.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Paper
& Paper Products
|
-3.2%
|
|
NICK
|
05/27/05
|
-6.7%
|
Nicholas
Financial Inc.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-14.4%
|
|
NOBH
|
05/27/05
|
14.5%
|
Nobility
Homes, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.4%
|
|
PKZ
|
07/01/05
|
-0.5%
|
PetroKazakhstan
Inc. (USA)
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
-1.3%
|
|
POOL
|
06/10/05
|
4.1%
|
SCP Pool
Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-3.2%
|
|
RESP
|
06/03/05
|
9.4%
|
Respironics,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
0.0%
|
|
RIMG
|
05/27/05
|
-0.5%
|
Rimage
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-4.9%
|
|
SFCC
|
07/08/05
|
0.0%
|
SFBC
International, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
|
SPF
|
05/27/05
|
15.2%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
TOL
|
05/27/05
|
14.2%
|
Toll
Brothers, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.5%
|
|
ZQK
|
05/27/05
|
2.6%
|
Quiksilver,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Apparel/Accessories
|
-3.8%
|
A performance summary of
filtering techniques for check lists and some of the master traders we follow
is given in Table 3I. Composite filter performance described in previous weeks
is listed at the bottom. Due to the more stringent requirements of the filter,
new stocks are unlikely to be added. So it was decided not to keep repeating
a static watchlist. Details of the composite watch list can be found in last
week’s newsletter.
Table 3I
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter
|
Avg. % Change Since Listed
|
Avg. % Change Friday
|
Past Month
|
Past Week
|
2 weeks Ago
|
3 Weeks Ago
|
4 Weeks Ago
|
|
Net Insider Buying
|
8.2%
|
0.1%
|
10.0%
|
0.7%
|
4.0%
|
0.2%
|
4.8%
|
|
Cash Rich Companies
|
5.3%
|
0.8%
|
1.8%
|
1.1%
|
2.5%
|
-4.7%
|
3.0%
|
|
Growth Momentum Stocks
|
11.6%
|
0.9%
|
6.2%
|
2.3%
|
2.7%
|
-3.1%
|
4.3%
|
|
Lynch Stocks
|
6.2%
|
0.7%
|
2.3%
|
0.2%
|
0.6%
|
-1.5%
|
2.9%
|
|
Buffett Stocks
|
17.7%
|
1.7%
|
5.0%
|
2.6%
|
1.3%
|
-2.9%
|
4.0%
|
|
Graham Stocks
|
9.3%
|
0.6%
|
2.6%
|
-0.5%
|
1.7%
|
0.0%
|
1.4%
|
|
Templeton Stocks
|
5.4%
|
1.0%
|
3.0%
|
0.9%
|
1.3%
|
-2.1%
|
2.9%
|
|
Zweig Stocks
|
9.3%
|
0.7%
|
6.7%
|
2.7%
|
3.4%
|
-3.3%
|
3.9%
|
|
Composite Filter Stocks
|
6.8%
|
0.8%
|
13.0%
|
4.8%
|
2.7%
|
-1.5%
|
6.5%
|
4.0
Trading Results
This section highlights
performance of stocks and options trades. Only a summary is provided here to
save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the
website.
Stock Trading Model
|
Trading Model ($10,000 Initial
Capital)
|
|
No. of Closed trades in 2005 =
|
33
|
(1.2 Trades per Week)
|
|
Average Trade Size =
|
$1,000.00
|
|
|
Total Share costs =
|
$33,000.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit on Closed Positions=
|
$1,311.66
|
|
|
Profit on Open Positions =
|
$610.27
|
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$729.27
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$70.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$1,122.66
|
(11.2%)
|
Option Trading Model
|
Trading Model
|
|
Number of trades in 2005 =
|
41
|
(1.5 Trades per Week)
|
|
Number of contracts per trade =
|
2
|
|
|
Avg. Premium Cost per trade =
|
$1,432.59
|
|
|
Total Premium costs =
|
$58,736.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit =
|
$7,742.75
|
(13.2%)
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$1,024.18
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$420.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$6,298.57
|
(Avg.
holding period 8.8 days)
|
5.0 Conclusion
Performance since the
beginning of 2005 based on approximately 10% of capital per trade:
Growth in Total Capital in 2005
|
Stock
Advisory
|
+11.2%
|
|
Options
Advisory
|
+51.0%
|
|
Major Indices through 07/09/05
|
|
DOW
|
-3.0%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
-2.8%
|
|
S&P500
|
0.0%
|
|
Russell
2000
|
+1.7%
|
Appendix
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