______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 36 - July 25, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
Short term
opportunities may be evolving in growth stocks due to currency changes
1.1 Currency Impact
Now that China and Malaysia have untied their currencies to the US dollar, the question is will they
discontinue holding US Treasuries. There is no longer a need for them to buy
and hold treasuries in order to suppress US interest rates and keep the value
of their currencies from rising too rapidly. A surplus of Treasuries on the
market can lower bond prices and raise interest rate yields for a period of
time until yields become so attractive that bond buying would drive rates back
down. This might imply a short term sector rotation.
A temporary rise in yields
would adversely affect interest rate sensitive stocks, such as utilities, real
estate, banks and other financials. This could cause a sector rotation into
growth stocks. The first evidence of this is seen in the recent weakness in
defensive areas such as healthcare. However, we know from history that stocks
do not like sustained high interest rates in a non-inflationary environment. Technology
stocks have also weakened recently. Still the market continues to show health
based on relative movement of the NASDAQ with respect to the S&P500.
Expectations of higher
rates can lead to a dip in real estate. Anticipation of a real estate pinch
can lower expectations of consumer spending which can lead to a lowering of
expectations in corporate earnings.
The magnitude of any shock
to the economy depends on how rapidly treasuries are dumped on the market.
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web
site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
2.0
Market Analysis
Investors, viewing the good reports from last week,
had already priced in an expectation for good earnings reports before this
week's reports came in. As a result, there was little buying.
Industry leaders in Table 2A
rank from highest to lowest. Relative strength is given in Table 2B and VTO
market sentiment in Table 2C.
Major Indices
For the Past Week:
Dow Jones +0.1%
NASDAQ +1.1%
S&P500 Index +0.5%
Russell 2000 +1.9%
30 Year Bond 4.442%
10 Year Note 4.223%
Industry Leaders
For the Past Week:
Coal
Steel
Business Training & Employment
Platinum & Precious Metals
Nonferrous Metals
Oil Equipment & Services
Industrial Metals
Mining
Oil Equipment, Services & Dis
Basic Resources
Industry Leaders
For the Past Month:
Business Training & Employment
Coal
Biotechnology
Nonferrous Metals
Steel
Home Construction
Home Improvement Retailers
Industrial Metals
General Mining
Investment Services
Crude Oil $58.65
Gold for the past 30 days:
USD -3.72%
CAD -4.77%
CHF -2.56%
GBP +0.67%
EUR -4.02%
JPY -1.65
Table 2B
Relative Strength Index
|
|
5 Day RSI
|
|
DOW
|
Neutral
|
|
S&P
500
|
Neutral
|
|
NASDAQ
|
Neutral
|
Table 2C
VTO Market Sentiment Indicators
|
Sentiment Indicator
|
Value
|
Last Week
|
2 Weeks Ago
|
Complacent
|
Cautious
|
|
VIX **
|
10.52
|
10.33
|
11.45
|
< 20
|
> 50
|
|
VXN ***
|
12.95
|
13.34
|
13.80
|
< 30
|
> 70
|
|
Put/Call Ratio
|
0.561
|
0.540
|
0.424
|
< 0.6
|
> 0.7
|
|
%Bulls - %Bears
|
29.5%
|
32.3%
|
32.1%
|
> 29%
|
< 20%
|
|
** Below 20 day SMA = Buy signal.
***
Below 20 day SMA = Buy signal.
|
In Table 2D, the broader
market was mixed for the week.
Table 2D
Index Tracking Stocks, Key
Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month
|
1 wk ago
|
2 wks ago
|
3 wks ago
|
4 wks ago
|
|
SPY (S&P 500)
|
3.8%
|
0.6%
|
1.3%
|
1.5%
|
0.5%
|
|
DIA (DOW)
|
3.5%
|
0.2%
|
1.7%
|
1.4%
|
0.3%
|
|
QQQQ (NASDAQ 100)
|
6.6%
|
1.4%
|
3.0%
|
2.8%
|
-0.6%
|
|
IWM (Russell 2000)
|
8.2%
|
2.0%
|
0.0%
|
3.1%
|
2.8%
|
|
GLD, GOLD
|
-3.3%
|
1.0%
|
-0.5%
|
-1.0%
|
-2.7%
|
|
RKH, Banking
|
2.7%
|
-0.8%
|
3.1%
|
0.8%
|
-0.4%
|
|
IYT, Transportation
|
10.5%
|
3.4%
|
1.9%
|
2.2%
|
2.6%
|
|
SMH, Semiconductors
|
9.1%
|
0.6%
|
4.1%
|
5.1%
|
-0.9%
|
|
BBH, Biotechnology
|
13.4%
|
2.0%
|
4.8%
|
5.5%
|
0.6%
|
|
IYR, Real Estate
|
5.4%
|
1.4%
|
-0.7%
|
2.5%
|
2.1%
|
|
OIH, Oil
|
8.3%
|
8.8%
|
-1.7%
|
1.2%
|
0.0%
|
|
XLE,
Energy
|
5.5%
|
4.5%
|
-1.9%
|
1.8%
|
1.1%
|
|
XLU,
Utilities
|
2.2%
|
-0.7%
|
0.1%
|
0.4%
|
2.3%
|
|
XLB,
Materials
|
5.2%
|
3.1%
|
0.8%
|
2.1%
|
-0.8%
|
|
XLI,
Industrial
|
4.1%
|
1.6%
|
0.7%
|
1.2%
|
0.6%
|
|
XLK,
Technology
|
4.9%
|
-0.3%
|
2.8%
|
2.4%
|
-0.1%
|
|
XLV,
Healthcare
|
1.0%
|
-0.3%
|
0.8%
|
0.9%
|
-0.4%
|
|
XLF,
Financials
|
2.9%
|
-0.7%
|
1.6%
|
1.3%
|
0.6%
|
|
XLP,
Consumer Staples
|
2.4%
|
-0.3%
|
1.6%
|
0.7%
|
0.4%
|
|
XLY,
Consumer Discretionary
|
5.3%
|
1.3%
|
1.9%
|
1.9%
|
0.1%
|
Key industry ETF’s are
Biotech and Semiconductors which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation confirms
the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and
Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Real Estate
are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency and the
economy in general.
Figure 2 compares index
tracking stocks for the major averages with Sector SPDR’s.
Figure 3 compares index
tracking stocks with five leading ETF’s for the week.
FIGURE 2
FIGURE 3
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. The “Reference”
is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was added to or
returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since a
stock first passed the filter. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being
listed are removed. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined
from the maximum price reached after a stock first passed the filter. Stocks
that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks
that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed. More
information on filters is available on the web site. Send an email
if you need more details.
Key
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3A. These stocks should also appear in one of the master
trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious
consideration. ZHNE was removed because it decline more than 15% from its
highest price after being listed.
Table 3A
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ACAD
|
04/29/05
|
25.1%
|
ACADIA
Pharmaceuticals Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-1.8%
|
|
AFT
|
05/20/05
|
-7.4%
|
Axesstel,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-11.1%
|
|
ASPV
|
05/27/05
|
14.2%
|
Aspreva
Pharmaceuticals Corporation
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.3%
|
|
ATPL
|
07/01/05
|
1.3%
|
Atlantis
Plastics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Fabricated
Plastic & Rubber
|
-4.3%
|
|
AUXL
|
07/15/05
|
5.4%
|
Auxilium
Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-3.9%
|
|
CRTX
|
07/01/05
|
0.0%
|
Critical
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-3.4%
|
|
FTD
|
04/08/05
|
-1.3%
|
FTD Group,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Catalog & Mail Order)
|
-1.4%
|
|
FVRL
|
04/22/05
|
62.7%
|
Favrille,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-1.6%
|
|
IRN
|
05/20/05
|
0.6%
|
Rewards
Network Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-3.7%
|
|
ITMN
|
04/08/05
|
42.1%
|
InterMune,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.9%
|
|
KIRK
|
05/27/05
|
-6.4%
|
Kirkland's, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-10.6%
|
|
MERCS
|
05/20/05
|
-4.4%
|
Mercer
International Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Paper
& Paper Products
|
-4.4%
|
|
PCTY
|
07/08/05
|
8.1%
|
Party City
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
RGN
|
07/01/05
|
2.9%
|
RegeneRx
Biopharmaceut.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-0.8%
|
|
RNAI
|
07/15/05
|
-4.0%
|
Sirna
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-7.7%
|
|
SCLN
|
07/01/05
|
36.4%
|
SciClone
Pharmaceuticals
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-8.3%
|
|
STLW
|
07/08/05
|
-4.7%
|
Stratos
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
-4.7%
|
|
THLD
|
07/08/05
|
26.8%
|
Threshold
Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
|
ZHNE
|
07/15/05
|
17.0%
|
Zhone
Technologies, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-1.2%
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table
3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or
meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. CDCO
was removed because of its Over the Counter status making it difficult to
update the data. Its price performance is still in line with requirements for
being listed here. EXM declined more than 15% from its highest price after
being listed and was removed.
Table 3B - Capital Rich Companies Check
List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
CDCO
|
07/15/05
|
0.0%
|
COMDISCO
HLDG CO INC
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
0.0%
|
|
CLCT
|
05/20/05
|
-3.8%
|
Collectors
Universe, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-9.8%
|
|
EXAR
|
07/22/05
|
0.0%
|
Exar
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
0.0%
|
|
EXM
|
07/15/05
|
4.3%
|
Excel
Maritime Carriers
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
-1.8%
|
|
HWG
|
06/03/05
|
8.6%
|
The
Hallwood Group Incorporated
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Textiles -
Non-Apparel
|
-10.4%
|
|
KEYN
|
05/13/05
|
26.6%
|
Keynote
Systems, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-1.1%
|
|
WSC
|
07/01/05
|
-0.7%
|
Wesco
Financial Corporation
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-0.7%
|
|
WZEN
|
04/22/05
|
5.6%
|
Webzen
Inc. (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-3.5%
|
For the screen in
Table 3C, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30.
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ADVNB
|
05/20/05
|
16.2%
|
Advanta
Corp.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-2.4%
|
|
BDK
|
04/29/05
|
11.1%
|
The Black
& Decker Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
0.0%
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
6.4%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-5.8%
|
|
CRAI
|
03/18/05
|
4.1%
|
CRA
International, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-7.4%
|
|
HOV
|
06/17/05
|
9.2%
|
Hovnanian
Enterprises
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-1.2%
|
|
KBH
|
06/17/05
|
8.0%
|
KB Home
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-1.1%
|
|
LEN
|
06/17/05
|
4.8%
|
Lennar
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-2.1%
|
|
NVR
|
07/22/05
|
0.0%
|
NVR, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
ORCC
|
05/06/05
|
13.2%
|
Online
Resources Corp.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-5.1%
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
6.9%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
0.0%
|
|
PNR
|
05/06/05
|
9.5%
|
Pentair,
Inc.
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-1.9%
|
|
PTRY
|
04/29/05
|
33.7%
|
The
Pantry, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
-2.8%
|
|
RYL
|
07/22/05
|
0.0%
|
The Ryland
Group, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
SAY
|
06/17/05
|
12.1%
|
Satyam
Computer (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
0.0%
|
|
SFY
|
04/22/05
|
43.5%
|
Swift
Energy Company
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
0.0%
|
|
SGK
|
05/13/05
|
14.5%
|
Schawk,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Printing
Services
|
-10.6%
|
|
SPF
|
05/06/05
|
27.9%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.6%
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
-7.3%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-8.5%
|
|
TDY
|
04/29/05
|
14.6%
|
Teledyne
Technologies Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-0.9%
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
8.9%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-5.0%
|
|
WOS
|
04/01/05
|
-3.3%
|
Wolseley
plc (ADR)
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-6.4%
|
|
ZNT
|
04/15/05
|
30.1%
|
Zenith
National Insurance Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-0.8%
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30. SC was removed only because information was difficult
to retrieve.
Table 3D
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
CAJ
|
01/31/05
|
3.3%
|
Canon Inc.
(ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-2.0%
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
17.7%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-1.8%
|
|
EDUC
|
07/15/05
|
1.0%
|
Educational
Development
|
Services
|
Printing
& Publishing
|
-0.4%
|
|
GMK
|
05/06/05
|
24.5%
|
Gruma S.A.
de C.V. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Food
Processing
|
0.0%
|
|
KEP
|
12/13/04
|
29.6%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
22.3%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-2.4%
|
|
LFL
|
05/13/05
|
8.1%
|
Lan
Airlines S.A. (ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Airline
|
0.0%
|
|
MKTAY
|
04/15/05
|
14.5%
|
Makita
Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-6.8%
|
|
NHY
|
04/29/05
|
22.6%
|
Norsk
Hydro ASA (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-2.5%
|
|
NL
|
07/22/05
|
0.0%
|
NL
Industries, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
0.0%
|
|
NTE
|
05/06/05
|
12.7%
|
Nam Tai
Electronics, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Electronic
Instruments & Controls
|
-1.1%
|
|
PKX
|
04/29/05
|
9.6%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
0.0%
|
|
RD
|
04/29/05
|
5.2%
|
Royal
Dutch Petroleum Company (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-8.6%
|
|
SAB
|
05/13/05
|
-0.5%
|
Grupo Casa
Saba, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Personal
& Household Products
|
-1.5%
|
|
SHI
|
06/03/05
|
4.7%
|
Sinopec
Shanghai Petrochemical Co. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-1.3%
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
2.4%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-5.4%
|
|
TKS
|
04/15/05
|
-5.1%
|
Tomkins
plc (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-6.1%
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
0.7%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-7.7%
|
|
TMX
|
06/03/05
|
7.1%
|
Telefonos
de Mexico, S.A. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-0.9%
|
|
TP
|
05/27/05
|
-6.4%
|
TNT N.V.
(ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-6.4%
|
|
VCP
|
05/06/05
|
-2.0%
|
Votorantim
Celulose e Papel S.A (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Forestry
& Wood Products
|
-4.4%
|
|
VLCCF
|
06/03/05
|
12.4%
|
Knightsbridge
Tankers Limited
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
-0.8%
|
|
YPF
|
04/15/05
|
15.9%
|
YPF
Sociedad Anonima S.A. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
0.0%
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3E is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3E
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
14.1%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-0.9%
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
7.4%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-3.1%
|
|
APPB
|
04/29/05
|
6.5%
|
Applebee's
Int'l, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-6.7%
|
|
CACH
|
04/29/05
|
65.0%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
DHI
|
04/15/05
|
55.9%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.4%
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
0.7%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-5.3%
|
|
ELBO
|
01/31/05
|
84.6%
|
Electronics
Boutique Holdings Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Technology)
|
-1.4%
|
|
FOSL
|
05/13/05
|
19.3%
|
Fossil,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Jewelry
& Silverware
|
-4.7%
|
|
HDI
|
04/15/05
|
16.7%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-0.3%
|
|
HELE
|
05/20/05
|
3.1%
|
Helen of
Troy Limited
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-8.7%
|
|
HOV
|
06/24/05
|
16.1%
|
Hovnanian
Enterprises
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-1.2%
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
-5.3%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-13.2%
|
|
LXK
|
04/29/05
|
1.4%
|
Lexmark
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
0.0%
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
13.4%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
0.0%
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
16.5%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-2.5%
|
|
RI
|
07/15/05
|
-0.6%
|
Ruby
Tuesday, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-0.6%
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
18.6%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
0.0%
|
|
SRT
|
05/06/05
|
32.3%
|
StarTek,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-4.0%
|
|
STLD
|
05/20/05
|
17.4%
|
Steel
Dynamics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
0.0%
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
31.8%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
-1.0%
|
|
TLK
|
04/29/05
|
31.3%
|
PT
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
TSCO
|
04/22/05
|
31.7%
|
Tractor
Supply Company
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
0.0%
|
The stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3F. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3F - Benjamin Graham Utility
Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ATG
|
04/29/05
|
9.5%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-3.1%
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
7.1%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-2.0%
|
|
CEG
|
04/29/05
|
9.5%
|
Constellation
Energy Group
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-1.9%
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
18.5%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-1.0%
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
40.0%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
NFG
|
04/08/05
|
4.4%
|
National
Fuel Gas Co.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
|
OKE
|
04/15/05
|
19.3%
|
ONEOK,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.2%
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
0.9%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-2.8%
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
5.7%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-0.4%
|
|
SJI
|
07/01/05
|
-3.4%
|
South
Jersey Industries
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-7.1%
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
16.9%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.8%
|
|
UU
|
06/10/05
|
-7.6%
|
United
Utilities PLC (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-8.4%
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
12.1%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-0.3%
|
The stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing
are listed in Table 3G.
Table 3G - John Templeton Watch
List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
BBBY
|
06/24/05
|
11.5%
|
Bed Bath
& Beyond Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
BRO
|
05/27/05
|
-3.0%
|
Brown
& Brown, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Miscellaneous)
|
-7.3%
|
|
CACH
|
05/27/05
|
40.2%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
CPS
|
05/27/05
|
5.4%
|
ChoicePoint
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
DGX
|
05/27/05
|
-3.0%
|
Quest
Diagnostics Incorporated
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-3.8%
|
|
EASI
|
06/03/05
|
5.7%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
0.0%
|
|
EDMC
|
06/03/05
|
7.0%
|
Education
Management Corp
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-2.0%
|
|
FCBP
|
05/27/05
|
14.0%
|
First
Community Banc./CA/
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
0.0%
|
|
HDI
|
05/27/05
|
7.1%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-0.3%
|
|
JNJ
|
05/27/05
|
-4.6%
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
Health
Care
|
Major
Drugs
|
-4.6%
|
|
MBT
|
06/17/05
|
11.8%
|
Mobile
TeleSystems OJSC (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
MTB
|
05/27/05
|
7.2%
|
M&T
Bank Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-1.6%
|
|
RLI
|
07/22/05
|
0.0%
|
RLI Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
0.0%
|
|
SFG
|
05/27/05
|
7.2%
|
StanCorp
Financial Group, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Life)
|
-0.3%
|
|
SNV
|
05/27/05
|
2.1%
|
Synovus
Financial Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-0.3%
|
|
SQM
|
05/27/05
|
38.7%
|
Sociedad
Quimica y Minera (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
0.0%
|
|
SYY
|
05/27/05
|
-1.8%
|
SYSCO Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
-3.0%
|
|
WMAR
|
05/27/05
|
17.5%
|
West
Marine, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
|
WSM
|
05/27/05
|
8.2%
|
Williams-Sonoma,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-1.6%
|
The stocks from Martin
Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3H.
Table 3H
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ABNS
|
07/22/05
|
0.0%
|
ALLIANCE BANCSHS CALIF
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
0.0%
|
|
APA
|
05/27/05
|
18.3%
|
Apache
Corporation
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-0.5%
|
|
AQNT
|
05/27/05
|
23.0%
|
aQuantive
Inc.
|
Services
|
Advertising
|
-8.0%
|
|
BMHC
|
05/27/05
|
28.4%
|
Building
Materials Holding Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
-2.4%
|
|
CAE
|
06/10/05
|
8.7%
|
Cascade
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-0.8%
|
|
CLFC
|
05/27/05
|
19.8%
|
Center
Financial Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-2.3%
|
|
CMTL
|
07/01/05
|
6.3%
|
Comtech
Telecomm. Corp.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-0.4%
|
|
DHI
|
05/27/05
|
21.3%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.4%
|
|
EPL
|
05/27/05
|
16.3%
|
Energy
Partners, Ltd.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-4.4%
|
|
EXP
|
05/27/05
|
9.3%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
0.0%
|
|
FORD
|
06/24/05
|
9.5%
|
Forward
Industries, Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Apparel/Accessories
|
-5.5%
|
|
FRGB
|
07/15/05
|
10.2%
|
First
Regional Bancorp
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-0.7%
|
|
KBH
|
06/17/05
|
8.0%
|
KB Home
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-1.1%
|
|
LEN
|
05/27/05
|
15.4%
|
Lennar
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-2.1%
|
|
MBWM
|
07/15/05
|
1.6%
|
Mercantile
Bank Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-1.6%
|
|
MKL
|
05/27/05
|
-4.2%
|
Markel
Corporation
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-5.2%
|
|
MPAC
|
05/27/05
|
10.4%
|
MOD-PAC
CORP.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Paper
& Paper Products
|
-2.6%
|
|
NICK
|
05/27/05
|
-6.5%
|
Nicholas
Financial Inc.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-14.2%
|
|
NOBH
|
05/27/05
|
10.8%
|
Nobility
Homes, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-3.7%
|
|
NVR
|
07/22/05
|
0.0%
|
NVR, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
PKZ
|
07/01/05
|
6.8%
|
PetroKazakhstan
Inc. (USA)
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
0.0%
|
|
POOL
|
06/10/05
|
7.6%
|
SCP Pool
Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-0.3%
|
|
RESP
|
06/03/05
|
8.5%
|
Respironics,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-1.0%
|
|
RIMG
|
05/27/05
|
18.4%
|
Rimage
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
0.0%
|
|
SFCC
|
07/08/05
|
8.8%
|
SFBC
International, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
|
SPF
|
05/27/05
|
21.3%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.6%
|
|
TOL
|
05/27/05
|
25.2%
|
Toll
Brothers, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-2.1%
|
|
ZQK
|
05/27/05
|
3.8%
|
Quiksilver,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Apparel/Accessories
|
-2.6%
|
A performance summary of
filtering techniques for check lists and master traders we follow is given in
Table 3I.
Table 3I
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter
|
Avg. % Change Since Listed
|
Avg. % Change Friday
|
1 Month
|
1 Week Ago
|
2 weeks Ago
|
3 Weeks Ago
|
4 Weeks Ago
|
|
Net Insider Buying
|
11.3%
|
0.5%
|
15.6%
|
3.4%
|
6.2%
|
2.3%
|
3.0%
|
|
Cash Rich Companies
|
5.1%
|
0.5%
|
2.9%
|
1.1%
|
-2.3%
|
1.2%
|
2.9%
|
|
Growth Momentum Stocks
|
12.0%
|
1.6%
|
7.4%
|
1.6%
|
0.4%
|
2.2%
|
2.9%
|
|
Lynch Stocks
|
8.7%
|
0.2%
|
4.4%
|
1.9%
|
1.6%
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
|
Buffett Stocks
|
21.7%
|
1.8%
|
8.3%
|
3.3%
|
1.1%
|
2.4%
|
1.3%
|
|
Graham Stocks
|
10.2%
|
1.0%
|
1.8%
|
0.7%
|
-0.1%
|
-0.5%
|
1.7%
|
|
Templeton Stocks
|
9.0%
|
1.0%
|
6.0%
|
1.7%
|
1.7%
|
1.1%
|
1.3%
|
|
Zweig Stocks
|
11.0%
|
1.0%
|
9.7%
|
3.0%
|
0.6%
|
2.7%
|
3.1%
|
|
Average
|
11.1%
|
1.0%
|
7.0%
|
2.1%
|
1.2%
|
1.5%
|
2.1%
|
4.0
Trading Results
This section highlights
performance of stocks and options trades. Only a summary is provided here to
save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the
website.
Option Trading Model
|
Trading Model
|
|
Number of trades in 2005 =
|
45
|
(1.6 Trades per Week)
|
|
Number of contracts per trade =
|
2
|
|
|
Avg. Premium Cost per trade =
|
$1,375.33
|
|
|
Total Premium costs =
|
$66,016.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit =
|
$7,306.42
|
(11.1%)
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$1,199.04
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$420.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$5,687.38
|
(Avg.
holding period 8.4 days)
|
Stock Trading Model
|
Trading Model ($10,000 Initial
Capital)
|
|
No. of Closed trades in 2005 =
|
37
|
(1.2 Trades per Week)
|
|
Average Trade Size =
|
$1,000.00
|
|
|
Total Share costs =
|
$37,000.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit on Closed Positions=
|
$1,3339.89
|
|
|
Profit on Open Positions =
|
$562.61
|
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$829.17
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$70.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$1,003.32
|
(10.0%)
|
5.0 Conclusion
Performance since the
beginning of 2005 based on approximately 10% of capital per trade:
Growth in Total Capital in 2005
|
Stock
Advisory
|
+10.0%
|
|
Options
Advisory
|
+49.0%
|
|
Major Indices through 07/23/05
|
|
DOW
|
-1.2%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
+0.2%
|
|
S&P500
|
+1.8%
|
|
Russell
2000
|
+3.8%
|
Appendix
Investment Conference Schedule
Below are links to
conference registration sites where you can sign up.
- 09-07-05 Las Vegas, Nevada "Gold and Precious Metals Investment Conference"
The gold and
metal resource market has demonstrated its strength and longevity,
achieving sustained growth and multi-decade highs in the last year.
Explore the shining prospects of gold, silver, copper, uranium and other
fast-rising commodities. Realize your full potential in this sustained
bull market, with Natural Resources the clear profit leaders.
- 09-29-05 Las Vegas, Nevada "Tradestation World
Users Conference" Trade Station World Conference and Expo, the premier
conference for TradeStation users, is coming to the Venetian Hotel in Las
Vegas, September 29 - October 2, 2005. Here's where you learn about how to
design your personal trading strategies, and to test those strategies
against historical data.
- 10-02-05 Toronto, Ontario "Toronto Resource Investment Conference"
- 10-30-05 New Orleans, LA "New Orleans Investment Conference"
- 11-10-05 Millbrae, CA "Biotech Investing
Conference" Continuing advances in genomics, proteomics and
enabling technologies makes the Biotech sector a favorite among private
equity investors and venture capitalists. The Biotech Investing Conference
is an industry gathering of the leading private equity investors, venture
capitalists, biotech companies, pharmaceutical companies, corporate
investors and institutional investors.
- 11-27-05 San Francisco, CA "Gold and Precious Metals Conference"
Both
professional and sophisticated private investors meet with the world's
leaders in gold, silver, precious metals, copper and oil and gas
exploration and production. The Natural Resource industry's newest
opportunities are presented, together with educational seminars, executive
panels and investment workshops led by top finance specialists, economic
analysts and newsletter editors. Admission is complimentary with
pre-registration.
Conference Search