______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 38 – August 8, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
Use an
oscillator to help correct a common human fallacy.
1.1 Mean Tendency
A common human fallacy is a
natural attraction to rising prices. It’s normal. However, what’s needed is
to take a closer look at trends and averages. It is a principle of nature that
changing phenomena typically revert to their mean tendencies over an extended
period of time. This goes for stock prices, as well. Prices tend to oscillate
about a mean tendency in a region that is bracketed by extreme points.
Bollinger bands, defined by 2 standard deviations above and below the 20 day
simple moving average (SMA), offer a good way to define a price range. Prices
reaching one side of the band typically move back across the 20 day SMA and hit
the opposite side.
Oscillators such as the
stochastic, RSI and the Williams %R describe this behavior as well. When
oscillators reach extreme points, it is a lower risk bet that the price
tendency will reverse than it is for the price to continue in the same
direction. The best time to enter a long trade is when an oscillator reaches
its lower extreme meaning the stock is in an over sold condition. The best
time to enter a short trade is when an oscillator reaches its high extreme
meaning the stock is in an over bought condition.
Responding to oscillators
in this manner goes against human nature. But if you find that stocks have a
consistent tendency to pull back immediately after you enter a long position,
it is probably because you were attracted to a rising price that has reached an
overbought condition. If this has been happening, you need to step back and
apply an oscillator or two to your analysis. If the stock is overbought, wait
a while and buy the stock after it has reached an oversold condition. Your
patience will be rewarded twofold, first in the money saved by avoiding a
drawdown and second by the money gained when the price reverts toward its mean
tendency.
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web
site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
2.0
Market Analysis
Market optimism was
replaced by anticipation of inflation and higher interest rates. Economic and
earnings reports have been good but the market has lost positive momentum and
is resuming a sideways motion. The best performing stock sectors this past
week were energy and software. Interest sensitive stocks such as
homebuilding and REITs were weak, while retail also performed poorly following
the July same store sales data. Figure 1 compares index tracking stocks for
the major averages with Sector SPDR’s.
.
FIGURE 1
Relative strength is given in
Table 2A.
Table 2A
Relative Strength Index
|
|
5 Day RSI
|
|
DOW
|
Neutral
|
|
S&P
500
|
Neutral
|
|
NASDAQ
|
Neutral
|
Market sentiment is shown
in Table 2B. Volatility has increased.
Table 2B
VTO Market Sentiment Indicators
|
Sentiment Indicator
|
Current
|
Last Week
|
2 Weeks Ago
|
Complacent
|
Cautious
|
|
VIX **
|
12.48
|
11.57
|
10.52
|
< 20
|
> 50
|
|
VXN ***
|
15.40
|
13.87
|
12.95
|
< 30
|
> 70
|
|
Put/Call Ratio
|
0.551
|
0.560
|
0.561
|
< 0.6
|
> 0.7
|
|
%Bulls - %Bears
|
34.8%
|
33.3%
|
29.5%
|
> 29%
|
< 20%
|
|
** Above 20 day SMA = Sell signal.
*** Above
20 day SMA = Sell signal.
|
Figure 2 compares index
tracking stocks with five leading ETF’s for the week.
FIGURE 2
Industry leaders in Table 2C
rank from highest to lowest.
Major Indices
For the Past Week:
Dow Jones -0.8%
NASDAQ -0.3%
S&P500 Index -0.6%
Russell 2000 -2.5%
30 Year Bond 4.582%
10 Year Note 4.392%
Industry Leaders
For the Past Week:
Platinum & Precious Metals
Gold Mining
Footwear
Software
Pipelines
Mining
Oil Equipment, Services & Dis
Oil Equipment & Services
Aerospace & Defense
Software & Computer Services
Industry Leaders
For the Past Month:
Platinum & Precious Metals
Steel
Business Training & Employment
Biotechnology
Coal
Tires
Industrial Metals
Water
Railroads
Oil Equipment & Services
Crude Oil $62.31
Gold for the past 30 days:
USD +3.19%
CAD +1.66%
CHF +0.17%
GBP +2.14%
EUR -0.29%
JPY +3.20
In Table 2D, the broader
market was down for the week with the exception of gold and energy.
Table 2D
Index Tracking Stocks, Key
Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month
|
1 wk ago
|
2 wks ago
|
3 wks ago
|
4 wks ago
|
|
SPY (S&P 500)
|
1.3%
|
-0.7%
|
0.2%
|
0.6%
|
1.3%
|
|
DIA (DOW)
|
1.0%
|
-0.9%
|
0.1%
|
0.2%
|
1.7%
|
|
QQQQ (NASDAQ 100)
|
4.5%
|
-0.3%
|
0.4%
|
1.4%
|
3.0%
|
|
IWM (Russell 2000)
|
0.0%
|
-2.8%
|
0.8%
|
2.0%
|
0.0%
|
|
GLD, GOLD
|
3.2%
|
1.8%
|
0.9%
|
1.0%
|
-0.5%
|
|
RKH, Banking
|
0.1%
|
-1.3%
|
-0.9%
|
-0.8%
|
3.1%
|
|
IYT, Transportation
|
3.9%
|
-1.8%
|
0.5%
|
3.4%
|
1.9%
|
|
SMH, Semiconductors
|
3.9%
|
-0.5%
|
0.4%
|
0.6%
|
4.1%
|
|
BBH, Biotechnology
|
7.7%
|
-0.3%
|
1.1%
|
2.0%
|
4.8%
|
|
IYR, Real Estate
|
-1.7%
|
-4.7%
|
2.4%
|
1.4%
|
-0.7%
|
|
OIH, Oil
|
11.2%
|
2.3%
|
1.5%
|
8.8%
|
-1.7%
|
|
XLE,
Energy
|
4.6%
|
2.4%
|
0.4%
|
4.5%
|
-1.9%
|
|
XLU,
Utilities
|
-0.3%
|
-1.1%
|
1.5%
|
-0.7%
|
0.1%
|
|
XLB,
Materials
|
3.3%
|
-0.2%
|
-0.5%
|
3.1%
|
0.8%
|
|
XLI,
Industrial
|
0.7%
|
-1.6%
|
0.0%
|
1.6%
|
0.7%
|
|
XLK,
Technology
|
3.5%
|
0.5%
|
0.4%
|
-0.3%
|
2.8%
|
|
XLV,
Healthcare
|
0.9%
|
-0.6%
|
1.1%
|
-0.3%
|
0.8%
|
|
XLF,
Financials
|
-0.8%
|
-1.0%
|
-0.7%
|
-0.7%
|
1.6%
|
|
XLP,
Consumer Staples
|
0.6%
|
-1.4%
|
0.9%
|
-0.3%
|
1.6%
|
|
XLY,
Consumer Discretionary
|
1.9%
|
-1.5%
|
0.2%
|
1.3%
|
1.9%
|
Key industry ETF’s are
Biotech and Semiconductors which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation confirms
the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and
Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Real Estate
are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency and the
economy in general.
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. The “Reference”
is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was added to or
returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the
reference date. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are
removed. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the
maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from
their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15%
from their highs after being listed are removed. More information on filters
is available on the web site. Send an email
if you need more details.
Key
A performance summary of
filtering techniques for check lists and master traders we follow is given in
Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter
|
Avg. % Change Since Listed
|
Avg. % Change Friday
|
1 Month
|
1 Week Ago
|
2 weeks Ago
|
3 Weeks Ago
|
4 Weeks Ago
|
|
Net Insider Buying
|
12.3%
|
-1.4%
|
12.2%
|
-0.2%
|
4.3%
|
3.7%
|
4.1%
|
|
Cash Rich Companies
|
-0.4%
|
-0.8%
|
-5.7%
|
-2.4%
|
-2.5%
|
1.1%
|
-2.0%
|
|
Growth Momentum Stocks
|
7.7%
|
-2.6%
|
0.1%
|
-2.7%
|
0.8%
|
1.9%
|
0.3%
|
|
Lynch Stocks
|
8.9%
|
-1.1%
|
3.8%
|
0.5%
|
-0.1%
|
2.0%
|
1.4%
|
|
Buffett Stocks
|
15.7%
|
-1.2%
|
0.5%
|
-2.4%
|
-1.2%
|
3.0%
|
1.2%
|
|
Graham Stocks
|
10.3%
|
-1.6%
|
0.7%
|
-1.1%
|
1.1%
|
0.7%
|
-0.1%
|
|
Templeton Stocks
|
6.7%
|
-1.3%
|
1.2%
|
-2.5%
|
0.7%
|
1.4%
|
1.7%
|
|
Zweig Stocks
|
8.3%
|
-2.6%
|
3.5%
|
-2.4%
|
2.5%
|
2.9%
|
0.4%
|
|
Average
|
8.7%
|
-1.6%
|
2.0%
|
-1.7%
|
0.7%
|
2.1%
|
0.9%
|
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master
trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious
consideration. CRTX was removed because it declined more than 10% from its
initial listing price. FVRL declined more than 15% from its high. Data was
difficult to retrieve for AUXL, CRYO and HEM.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ACAD
|
04/29/05
|
21.8%
|
ACADIA
Pharmaceuticals Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-6.0%
|
|
AFT
|
05/20/05
|
-6.3%
|
Axesstel,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-10.0%
|
|
ASPV
|
05/27/05
|
12.0%
|
Aspreva
Pharmaceuticals Corporation
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-4.2%
|
|
ATPL
|
07/01/05
|
5.2%
|
Atlantis
Plastics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Fabricated
Plastic & Rubber
|
-5.4%
|
|
FTD
|
04/08/05
|
-1.7%
|
FTD Group,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Catalog & Mail Order)
|
-1.9%
|
|
IRN
|
08/05/05
|
0.0%
|
Rewards
Network Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
0.0%
|
|
ITMN
|
08/05/05
|
0.0%
|
InterMune,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
|
KIRK
|
05/27/05
|
-5.8%
|
Kirkland's, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-10.1%
|
|
MERCS
|
05/20/05
|
-2.8%
|
Mercer
International Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Paper
& Paper Products
|
-2.8%
|
|
PCTY
|
07/08/05
|
3.5%
|
Party City
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-5.3%
|
|
RGN
|
07/01/05
|
16.2%
|
RegeneRx
Biopharmaceut.
|
Health Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
|
RNAI
|
07/15/05
|
65.7%
|
Sirna
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-6.2%
|
|
STLW
|
07/08/05
|
0.0%
|
Stratos
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
-2.3%
|
|
THLD
|
07/08/05
|
16.7%
|
Threshold
Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
Health Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-7.9%
|
|
ZHNE
|
07/15/05
|
1.4%
|
Zhone
Technologies, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-14.3%
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.
These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet
additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. CDCO
was removed because of its Over the Counter status making it difficult to
update the data. Its price performance is still in line with requirements for
being listed here. WZEN declined more than 15% from its highest price after
being listed and was removed. EXM declined more than 10% from its initial
listing price.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
CDCO
|
07/15/05
|
-0.9%
|
COMDISCO
HLDG CO INC
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
-0.9%
|
|
CLCT
|
05/20/05
|
-8.5%
|
Collectors
Universe, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-14.2%
|
|
EXAR
|
07/22/05
|
-4.3%
|
Exar
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
-4.3%
|
|
HWG
|
06/03/05
|
9.1%
|
The
Hallwood Group Incorporated
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Textiles -
Non-Apparel
|
-10.0%
|
|
KEYN
|
05/13/05
|
28.8%
|
Keynote
Systems, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-1.7%
|
|
TIWI
|
07/29/05
|
0.1%
|
Telesystem
International Wireless (USA)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-0.3%
|
|
WSC
|
07/01/05
|
-2.1%
|
Wesco
Financial Corporation
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-2.1%
|
For the screen in
Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30. LEV and SGK were removed due to price declines.
Table 3D
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ADVNB
|
05/20/05
|
14.4%
|
Advanta
Corp.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-6.9%
|
|
BDK
|
04/29/05
|
5.6%
|
The Black
& Decker Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-5.0%
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
9.2%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-5.6%
|
|
CRAI
|
03/18/05
|
5.6%
|
CRA
International, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-6.2%
|
|
EXP
|
07/29/05
|
2.5%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
-2.7%
|
|
HOV
|
06/17/05
|
-1.0%
|
Hovnanian
Enterprises
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-10.4%
|
|
HW
|
07/29/05
|
0.5%
|
Headwaters
Incorporated
|
Energy
|
Coal
|
-2.4%
|
|
KBH
|
06/17/05
|
-3.6%
|
KB Home
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-11.7%
|
|
LEN
|
06/17/05
|
-0.5%
|
Lennar
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.7%
|
|
NVR
|
07/22/05
|
-2.1%
|
NVR, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.9%
|
|
ORCC
|
05/06/05
|
3.4%
|
Online
Resources Corp.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-13.3%
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
5.8%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-2.7%
|
|
PNR
|
05/06/05
|
-4.1%
|
Pentair,
Inc.
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-14.1%
|
|
PTRY
|
04/29/05
|
22.9%
|
The
Pantry, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
-10.9%
|
|
RYL
|
07/22/05
|
-6.6%
|
The Ryland
Group, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.0%
|
|
SAY
|
06/17/05
|
9.0%
|
Satyam
Computer (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
-6.8%
|
|
SFY
|
04/22/05
|
60.1%
|
Swift
Energy Company
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-3.0%
|
|
SPF
|
05/06/05
|
19.8%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.7%
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
2.2%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-1.4%
|
|
TDY
|
04/29/05
|
22.0%
|
Teledyne
Technologies Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-4.8%
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
11.6%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-2.7%
|
|
WOS
|
04/01/05
|
-2.0%
|
Wolseley
plc (ADR)
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-5.1%
|
|
ZNT
|
04/15/05
|
21.1%
|
Zenith
National Insurance Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-7.7%
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by eliminating stocks having
P/E’s greater than 30. NL was removed due to a price decline.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ASH
|
07/29/05
|
-0.1%
|
Ashland
Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-1.7%
|
|
CAJ
|
01/31/05
|
-6.3%
|
Canon Inc.
(ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-11.1%
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
21.3%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-2.6%
|
|
EDUC
|
07/15/05
|
-0.9%
|
Educational
Development
|
Services
|
Printing
& Publishing
|
-2.2%
|
|
GMK
|
05/06/05
|
24.2%
|
Gruma S.A.
de C.V. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Food
Processing
|
-4.0%
|
|
KEP
|
12/13/04
|
33.4%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-2.9%
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
22.4%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-2.4%
|
|
LFL
|
05/13/05
|
5.6%
|
Lan
Airlines S.A. (ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Airline
|
-2.3%
|
|
MKTAY
|
04/15/05
|
15.1%
|
Makita
Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-6.7%
|
|
NHY
|
04/29/05
|
24.6%
|
Norsk
Hydro ASA (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-1.9%
|
|
NTE
|
05/06/05
|
20.5%
|
Nam Tai
Electronics, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Electronic
Instruments & Controls
|
-3.2%
|
|
PKX
|
04/29/05
|
12.5%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-3.0%
|
|
RD
|
04/29/05
|
8.9%
|
Royal Dutch
Petroleum Co.
|
Services
|
Printing
& Publishing
|
-5.4%
|
|
SAB
|
05/13/05
|
5.6%
|
Grupo Casa
Saba, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Personal
& Household Products
|
-0.5%
|
|
SHI
|
06/03/05
|
13.0%
|
Sinopec
Shanghai Petrochemical Co. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-1.2%
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
5.7%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-2.9%
|
|
TKS
|
04/15/05
|
-1.0%
|
Tomkins
plc (ADR)
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-2.1%
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
0.1%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-8.3%
|
|
TMX
|
06/03/05
|
3.4%
|
Telefonos
de Mexico, S.A. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-4.4%
|
|
TP
|
05/27/05
|
-1.4%
|
TNT N.V.
(ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-1.4%
|
|
VCP
|
05/06/05
|
-2.4%
|
Votorantim
Celulose e Papel S.A (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Forestry
& Wood Products
|
-4.8%
|
|
VLCCF
|
06/03/05
|
13.9%
|
Knightsbridge
Tankers Limited
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
0.0%
|
|
YPF
|
04/15/05
|
13.9%
|
YPF
Sociedad Anonima S.A. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-2.4%
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3F is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less. LXK was removed due to a price
decline.
Table 3F
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
8.7%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-5.6%
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
7.2%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-3.3%
|
|
APPB
|
04/29/05
|
2.7%
|
Applebee's
Int'l, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-10.0%
|
|
CACH
|
04/29/05
|
53.7%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
-6.9%
|
|
DHI
|
04/15/05
|
42.9%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-8.7%
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
0.4%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-5.6%
|
|
ELBO
|
01/31/05
|
78.9%
|
Electronics
Boutique Holdings Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Technology)
|
-4.4%
|
|
FNF
|
07/29/05
|
-3.8%
|
Fidelity
National Financial
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-4.0%
|
|
FOSL
|
05/13/05
|
17.4%
|
Fossil,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Jewelry
& Silverware
|
-6.2%
|
|
HDI
|
04/15/05
|
12.2%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-4.8%
|
|
HELE
|
05/20/05
|
1.0%
|
Helen of
Troy Limited
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Appliances
& Tools
|
-10.6%
|
|
HOV
|
06/24/05
|
5.3%
|
Hovnanian
Enterprises
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-10.4%
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
2.5%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-6.1%
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
14.9%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-4.1%
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
14.8%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-4.0%
|
|
RCII
|
07/29/05
|
-1.9%
|
Rent-A-Center,
Inc
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
-1.9%
|
|
RI
|
07/15/05
|
-4.7%
|
Ruby
Tuesday, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-4.8%
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
22.7%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
-1.9%
|
|
SRT
|
05/06/05
|
17.3%
|
StarTek,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-14.9%
|
|
STLD
|
05/20/05
|
14.5%
|
Steel
Dynamics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-4.5%
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
27.4%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
-5.1%
|
|
TLK
|
04/29/05
|
24.5%
|
PT
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-5.2%
|
|
TSCO
|
04/22/05
|
29.6%
|
Tractor
Supply Company
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
-8.2%
|
Stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3G. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G - Benjamin Graham Utility
Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ATG
|
04/29/05
|
8.5%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-4.0%
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
7.1%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-3.1%
|
|
CEG
|
04/29/05
|
12.3%
|
Constellation
Energy Group
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-3.9%
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
21.0%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.2%
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
44.1%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-2.9%
|
|
NFG
|
04/08/05
|
2.4%
|
National
Fuel Gas Co.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-3.8%
|
|
OKE
|
04/15/05
|
18.4%
|
ONEOK,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-4.9%
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
-1.9%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-5.5%
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
4.9%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-2.6%
|
|
SJI
|
07/01/05
|
-5.4%
|
South
Jersey Industries
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-9.0%
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
16.2%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-2.7%
|
|
UU
|
06/10/05
|
-5.9%
|
United
Utilities PLC (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-6.7%
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
12.9%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-2.0%
|
Stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are
listed in Table 3H. DGX was removed due to a price decline.
Table 3H - John Templeton Watch
List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
BBBY
|
06/24/05
|
6.4%
|
Bed Bath
& Beyond Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-6.3%
|
|
BRO
|
05/27/05
|
-3.2%
|
Brown
& Brown, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Miscellaneous)
|
-7.5%
|
|
CACH
|
05/27/05
|
30.5%
|
Cache,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
-6.9%
|
|
CPS
|
05/27/05
|
6.0%
|
ChoicePoint
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-2.8%
|
|
EASI
|
06/03/05
|
4.7%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-3.4%
|
|
EDMC
|
06/03/05
|
3.3%
|
Education
Management Corp
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-5.8%
|
|
FCBP
|
05/27/05
|
8.5%
|
First
Community Banc./CA/
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-5.4%
|
|
HDI
|
05/27/05
|
3.0%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-4.8%
|
|
JNJ
|
05/27/05
|
-5.8%
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
Health
Care
|
Major
Drugs
|
-5.8%
|
|
MBT
|
06/17/05
|
11.3%
|
Mobile
TeleSystems OJSC (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-0.4%
|
|
MTB
|
05/27/05
|
4.2%
|
M&T
Bank Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-4.4%
|
|
NFB
|
07/29/05
|
-0.9%
|
North Fork
Bancorporation, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-2.8%
|
|
RLI
|
07/22/05
|
0.8%
|
RLI Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-5.1%
|
|
SFG
|
05/27/05
|
11.6%
|
StanCorp
Financial Group, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Life)
|
-5.9%
|
|
SNV
|
05/27/05
|
-0.7%
|
Synovus
Financial Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-3.0%
|
|
SQM
|
05/27/05
|
42.5%
|
Sociedad
Quimica y Minera (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical Manufacturing
|
-7.3%
|
|
SYY
|
05/27/05
|
-8.4%
|
SYSCO
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Grocery)
|
-9.5%
|
|
WMAR
|
05/27/05
|
21.2%
|
West
Marine, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-1.6%
|
|
WSM
|
05/27/05
|
9.6%
|
Williams-Sonoma,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-4.5%
|
Stocks from Martin Zweig’s
style of investing are listed in Table 3I. BMHC was removed due to a price
decline.
Table 3I
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
|
ABNS
|
07/22/05
|
0.5%
|
ALLIANCE BANCSHS CALIF
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-3.7%
|
|
AMSG
|
07/29/05
|
-0.7%
|
AmSurg
Corp.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-2.4%
|
|
APA
|
05/27/05
|
15.8%
|
Apache
Corporation
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-3.2%
|
|
AQNT
|
05/27/05
|
22.5%
|
aQuantive
Inc.
|
Services
|
Advertising
|
-8.3%
|
|
BR
|
07/29/05
|
3.0%
|
Burlington
Resources Inc.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-0.9%
|
|
BSIC
|
07/29/05
|
-0.4%
|
BASIC
EARTH SCIENCE SYS
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-11.7%
|
|
CAE
|
06/10/05
|
3.9%
|
Cascade
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-5.2%
|
|
CERS
|
08/05/05
|
0.0%
|
Cerus
Corporation
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
|
CLFC
|
05/27/05
|
11.5%
|
Center
Financial Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-9.9%
|
|
CMTL
|
07/01/05
|
-1.3%
|
Comtech
Telecomm. Corp.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-9.4%
|
|
DHI
|
05/27/05
|
11.2%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-8.7%
|
|
EPL
|
05/27/05
|
19.4%
|
Energy
Partners, Ltd.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-1.8%
|
|
EXP
|
05/27/05
|
16.1%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
-2.7%
|
|
FORD
|
06/24/05
|
46.8%
|
Forward
Industries, Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Apparel/Accessories
|
-5.2%
|
|
FRGB
|
07/15/05
|
16.5%
|
First
Regional Bancorp
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-1.3%
|
|
KBH
|
06/17/05
|
-3.6%
|
KB Home
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-11.7%
|
|
LEN
|
05/27/05
|
9.5%
|
Lennar
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.7%
|
|
MBWM
|
07/15/05
|
-4.6%
|
Mercantile
Bank Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-7.6%
|
|
MCO
|
07/29/05
|
-0.7%
|
Moody's
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-1.3%
|
|
MKL
|
05/27/05
|
-5.0%
|
Markel
Corporation
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-6.0%
|
|
MPAC
|
05/27/05
|
14.8%
|
MOD-PAC
CORP.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Paper
& Paper Products
|
-4.1%
|
|
NICK
|
05/27/05
|
-7.2%
|
Nicholas
Financial Inc.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-14.8%
|
|
NOBH
|
05/27/05
|
15.1%
|
Nobility
Homes, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-3.0%
|
|
NVR
|
07/22/05
|
-2.1%
|
NVR, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.9%
|
|
PKZ
|
07/01/05
|
13.6%
|
PetroKazakhstan
Inc. (USA)
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
-1.3%
|
|
POOL
|
06/10/05
|
5.0%
|
SCP Pool
Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-2.7%
|
|
RESP
|
06/03/05
|
10.1%
|
Respironics,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-2.1%
|
|
RIMG
|
05/27/05
|
10.4%
|
Rimage
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Computer
Peripherals
|
-6.7%
|
|
SFCC
|
07/08/05
|
2.4%
|
SFBC
International, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-5.9%
|
|
SM
|
08/05/05
|
0.0%
|
St. Mary
Land & Exploration Co.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
0.0%
|
|
SPF
|
05/27/05
|
13.6%
|
Standard
Pacific Corp.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.7%
|
|
TOL
|
05/27/05
|
11.9%
|
Toll
Brothers, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-12.5%
|
|
ZNT
|
08/05/05
|
0.0%
|
Zenith
National Insurance Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
0.0%
|
|
ZQK
|
05/27/05
|
0.9%
|
Quiksilver,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Apparel/Accessories
|
-5.8%
|
4.0
Trading Results
This section highlights
performance of stocks and options trades. Only a summary is provided here to
save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the
website.
Option Trading Model
|
Trading Model
|
|
Number of trades in 2005 =
|
52
|
(1.6
Trades per Week)
|
|
Number of contracts per trade =
|
2
|
|
|
Avg. Premium Cost per trade =
|
$1,401.08
|
|
|
Total Premium costs =
|
$72,856.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit =
|
$8,708.71
|
(12.0%)
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$1,298.00
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$480.00
|
(at
$60.00/month)
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$6,929.75
|
(Avg. holding
period 8.2 days)
|
Stock Trading Model
|
Trading Model ($10,000 Initial
Capital)
|
|
No. of Closed trades in 2005 =
|
39
|
(1.2 Trades per Week)
|
|
Average Trade Size =
|
$1,000.00
|
|
|
Total Share costs =
|
$39,000.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit on Closed Positions=
|
$1,402.71
|
|
|
Profit on Open Positions =
|
$639.37
|
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$849.15
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$80.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$1,112.93
|
(11.1%)
|
5.0 Conclusion
Performance since the
beginning of 2005 based on approximately 10% of capital per trade:
Growth in Total Capital
|
Stock
Advisory
|
+11.1%
(Began 4/1/05)
|
|
Options
Advisory
|
+61.0%
(Since 1/1/05)
|
|
Major Indices Year to Date
8/06/05
|
|
DOW
|
-2.1%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
+0.1%
|
|
S&P500
|
+1.2%
|
|
Russell
2000
|
+1.7%
|
Appendix
Investment Conference Schedule
Below are links to
conference registration sites where you can sign up.
- 09-07-05 Las Vegas, Nevada "Gold and Precious Metals Investment Conference"
The gold and
metal resource market has demonstrated its strength and longevity,
achieving sustained growth and multi-decade highs in the last year.
Explore the shining prospects of gold, silver, copper, uranium and other
fast-rising commodities. Realize your full potential in this sustained bull
market, with Natural Resources the clear profit leaders.
- 09-29-05 Las Vegas, Nevada "Tradestation World
Users Conference" Trade Station World Conference and Expo, the premier
conference for TradeStation users, is coming to the Venetian Hotel in Las
Vegas, September 29 - October 2, 2005. Here's where you learn about how to
design your personal trading strategies, and to test those strategies
against historical data.
- 10-02-05 Toronto, Ontario "Toronto Resource Investment Conference"
- 10-30-05 New Orleans, LA "New Orleans Investment Conference"
- 11-10-05 Millbrae, CA "Biotech Investing
Conference" Continuing advances in genomics, proteomics and
enabling technologies makes the Biotech sector a favorite among private
equity investors and venture capitalists. The Biotech Investing Conference
is an industry gathering of the leading private equity investors, venture
capitalists, biotech companies, pharmaceutical companies, corporate
investors and institutional investors.
- 11-27-05 San Francisco, CA "Gold and Precious Metals Conference"
Both
professional and sophisticated private investors meet with the world's
leaders in gold, silver, precious metals, copper and oil and gas
exploration and production. The Natural Resource industry's newest
opportunities are presented, together with educational seminars, executive
panels and investment workshops led by top finance specialists, economic
analysts and newsletter editors. Admission is complimentary with
pre-registration.
Conference Search