______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 47 –October 10, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
This analysis series began
on September 12, 2005 describing the individual effects of year ago measures of
stock value on current stock prices one year later. Year ago valuations
involved price to earnings ratio (PE), price to book ratio (PB), price to sales
ratio (PS) and return on equity (ROE). This week continues with the effect of
year ago sales growth.
1.1 Sales Growth
The analysis involved NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX stocks
that had sales data and were priced above $4. Advanced Depository Receipts,
Over the Counter Stocks and Exchange Traded Funds were excluded. Information
was available for the group of 3244 stocks shown in Figure 1. The chart on the
left shows the entire population. The zoomed in chart on the right shows that
for typical sales growth, one could have obtained a wide range of possible
outcomes.
FIGURE 1
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web
site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
The 3,244 stocks were sorted into seven sales growth
ranges and used to plot 52 week price gain histograms. The data is summarized
in Figure 2. Market data for the past year shows that the probability of lowest
risk occurred for sales growth in the range 10 to 50%. Sales growth outside
this range was either more difficult to sustain or was not considered to have
sufficient value with an average probability of loss close to 35%.
Probabilities for the lowest price gains of zero to 25%
were highest as sales growth decreased. Within the 10 to 50% sales growth
range, the higher the value of sales growth, the greater was the probability of
price gains of 25% or greater. There was about a 10% probability that price
gains of more than 100% would be achieved when sales growth was greater than
30%.
FIGURE 2
The percentages of stocks
in Figure 2 can be treated as probabilities of price gains for sales growth ranges
over the past year only. How investors evaluate stocks changes from year to
year and accounts for annual changes in the character of the market. Once
again it is good to keep in mind that long term fundamental measures of value are
inappropriate for short term trading.
Next week we will take a
look at the effects of year ago EPS growth rates.
2.0 Market Analysis
An already nervous market
was spooked by comments from three Fed officials about the need to fight
inflation. Much of this commentary might be considered posturing since it is a
sure bet that inflation fighting will always be high on the policy agenda no
matter who replaces Alan Greenspan. There was nothing really new. Higher
energy prices have made it a forgone conclusion that the Fed will continue with
rate hikes. Fed statements this week merely removed any doubt. Sentiment is
just cautious and negative in the absence of any negative economic data.
Comments that the economy is doing well were taken to mean higher inflation
pressures and spooked the market even more. Forecasts for third quarter
earnings are now around 15%
Key industry ETF’s in Table
2A are Biotech and Semiconductors which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation
confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking
and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Real
Estate are respective indicators of inflation and consumer spending.
Table 2A
Index Tracking
Stocks, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month
|
1 wk ago
|
2 wks ago
|
3 wks ago
|
4 wks ago
|
|
DIA (DOW)
|
-3.6%
|
-2.6%
|
1.6%
|
-2.0%
|
-0.5%
|
|
QQQQ (NASDAQ 100)
|
-3.2%
|
-2.8%
|
1.8%
|
-1.6%
|
-0.6%
|
|
SPY (S&P 500)
|
-4.0%
|
-2.9%
|
1.3%
|
-1.7%
|
-0.9%
|
|
IWM (Russell 2000)
|
-4.9%
|
-3.4%
|
1.9%
|
-2.6%
|
-0.7%
|
|
GLD, GOLD
|
5.6%
|
1.4%
|
0.9%
|
1.0%
|
2.2%
|
|
RKH, Banking
|
-4.4%
|
-0.9%
|
-0.9%
|
-2.8%
|
0.1%
|
|
IYT, Transportation
|
1.6%
|
-1.5%
|
3.1%
|
-0.5%
|
0.5%
|
|
SMH, Semiconductors
|
-5.1%
|
-4.0%
|
2.0%
|
-1.9%
|
-1.2%
|
|
BBH, Biotechnology
|
-8.0%
|
-3.5%
|
-0.9%
|
-3.0%
|
-0.8%
|
|
IYR, Real Estate
|
-7.1%
|
-4.5%
|
2.5%
|
-4.2%
|
-1.0%
|
|
OIH, Oil
|
-5.9%
|
-8.0%
|
3.3%
|
0.4%
|
-1.5%
|
|
XLE,
Energy
|
-6.2%
|
-7.8%
|
2.1%
|
0.5%
|
-1.0%
|
|
XLU,
Utilities
|
-3.5%
|
-4.1%
|
2.8%
|
-2.7%
|
0.5%
|
|
XLB,
Materials
|
-5.0%
|
-3.3%
|
1.6%
|
-2.7%
|
-0.6%
|
|
XLI,
Industrial
|
-1.4%
|
-1.2%
|
1.4%
|
-1.2%
|
-0.4%
|
|
XLK,
Technology
|
-4.0%
|
-3.3%
|
1.6%
|
-2.0%
|
-0.3%
|
|
XLV,
Healthcare
|
-5.1%
|
-1.9%
|
-0.4%
|
-1.7%
|
-1.3%
|
|
XLF,
Financials
|
-2.4%
|
-1.5%
|
0.6%
|
-2.0%
|
0.3%
|
|
XLP,
Consumer Staples
|
-2.2%
|
-2.1%
|
2.4%
|
-1.5%
|
-1.2%
|
|
XLY,
Consumer Discretionary
|
-6.3%
|
-2.6%
|
0.6%
|
-2.6%
|
-2.0%
|
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades.
Categories include check lists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as
well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders.
Current stock rankings are
based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the
Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1”
and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading
day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less
negative than -20 are overbought.
A column labeled “Weekly %
Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the
past week and the Williams %R. With this systematic way of ranking stocks, the
complete list of stocks for each filter is presented.
One should keep in mind
that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very
well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as
a starting point for further due diligence.
The “Reference” is the date
that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to
the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.
Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed. The “% from Max”
is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since
the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being
listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after
being listed are removed. More information on filters is available on the web
site.
A performance summary of
filtering techniques for check lists and master trader selection methods is
given in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter
|
Avg. % Change Since Listed
|
Avg. % Change Friday
|
Past Month
|
Past Week
|
2 weeks Ago
|
3 Weeks Ago
|
4 Weeks Ago
|
|
Net Insider Buying
|
6.8%
|
-0.9%
|
6.5%
|
0.1%
|
13.6%
|
-6.0%
|
-0.2%
|
|
Cash Rich Companies
|
-1.9%
|
-0.7%
|
-6.2%
|
0.2%
|
0.2%
|
-1.9%
|
-4.7%
|
|
Growth Momentum Stocks
|
6.0%
|
0.5%
|
-1.8%
|
-3.0%
|
2.6%
|
-1.1%
|
0.0%
|
|
Lynch Stocks
|
15.4%
|
1.7%
|
0.8%
|
-2.3%
|
2.3%
|
-0.4%
|
1.4%
|
|
Buffett Stocks
|
13.2%
|
0.6%
|
-1.8%
|
-3.5%
|
1.2%
|
-0.4%
|
0.9%
|
|
Graham Stocks
|
11.6%
|
1.3%
|
-2.7%
|
-3.5%
|
2.4%
|
-1.8%
|
0.3%
|
|
Templeton Stocks
|
3.3%
|
0.4%
|
-0.7%
|
-1.9%
|
1.3%
|
0.4%
|
-0.5%
|
|
Zweig Stocks
|
14.0%
|
1.3%
|
-1.0%
|
-4.2%
|
4.1%
|
0.0%
|
-0.8%
|
|
Average
|
8.5%
|
0.5%
|
-0.9%
|
-2.3%
|
3.5%
|
-1.4%
|
-0.4%
|
Key
|
Passed
Recent Filter
|
|
Price
declined by half of stop loss setting
|
|
Oversold
based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent)
|
|
Overbought
based on Williams %R (%R2
is most recent)
|
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master
trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious
consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those
that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
RGN
|
09/30/05
|
-9.5%
|
RegeneRx
Biopharmaceut.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-9.5%
|
-9.5%
|
-94
|
-94
|
|
KIRK
|
09/30/05
|
-0.5%
|
Kirkland's, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-3.4%
|
-0.5%
|
-84
|
-80
|
|
MNKD
|
10/07/05
|
0.0%
|
MannKind
Corporation
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
-12.4%
|
-71
|
-71
|
|
ISO
|
10/07/05
|
0.0%
|
ISCO
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
0.0%
|
7.7%
|
-67
|
-67
|
|
AMIC
|
08/26/05
|
-5.3%
|
American
Independence Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Miscellaneous)
|
-5.6%
|
1.2%
|
-59
|
-59
|
|
ZHNE
|
10/07/05
|
0.0%
|
Zhone
Technologies, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
0.0%
|
-2.7%
|
-41
|
-41
|
|
IRN
|
08/05/05
|
17.8%
|
Rewards
Network Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-2.9%
|
-2.0%
|
-34
|
-34
|
|
CRTX
|
08/12/05
|
49.0%
|
Critical
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-9.6%
|
-9.6%
|
-31
|
-32
|
|
MEMY
|
09/30/05
|
3.3%
|
Memory
Pharmaceuticals Corp.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-7.0%
|
3.3%
|
-30
|
-30
|
|
HEM
|
10/07/05
|
0.0%
|
Hemosense,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
0.0%
|
1.8%
|
-30
|
-30
|
|
MEAD
|
09/30/05
|
3.4%
|
Meade
Instruments Corp.
|
Technology
|
Scientific
& Technical Instruments
|
-1.1%
|
3.4%
|
-20
|
-20
|
|
MERX
|
10/07/05
|
0.0%
|
Merix
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Electronic
Instruments & Controls
|
0.0%
|
12.3%
|
-12
|
-12
|
|
PCTY
|
09/16/05
|
25.5%
|
Party City
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-1.9%
|
-1.9%
|
-8
|
-8
|
|
REDE
|
09/02/05
|
11.2%
|
RedEnvelope,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Catalog & Mail Order)
|
-0.4%
|
9.9%
|
-6
|
-6
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.
These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet
additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again
this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
EXAR
|
09/16/05
|
-5.0%
|
Exar
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
-5.7%
|
-4.4%
|
-79
|
-79
|
|
CLCT
|
10/07/05
|
0.0%
|
Collectors
Universe, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
-61
|
-60
|
|
WZEN
|
10/07/05
|
0.0%
|
Webzen
Inc. (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
3.2%
|
-56
|
-56
|
|
WSC
|
07/01/05
|
-2.7%
|
Wesco
Financial Corporation
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-2.7%
|
1.7%
|
0
|
0
|
For the screen in
Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3D
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
BHP
|
09/09/05
|
-1.8%
|
BHP
Billiton Limited (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Metal
Mining
|
-9.5%
|
-9.3%
|
-95
|
-95
|
|
ADVNB
|
05/20/05
|
7.5%
|
Advanta
Corp.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-12.5%
|
-5.1%
|
-90
|
-88
|
|
EXP
|
07/29/05
|
10.7%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
-8.4%
|
-6.3%
|
-82
|
-82
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
5.8%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-8.5%
|
-5.2%
|
-72
|
-73
|
|
PKX
|
09/30/05
|
-6.4%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-6.4%
|
-6.4%
|
-72
|
-72
|
|
LM
|
08/12/05
|
-2.3%
|
Legg
Mason, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
-2.8%
|
-2.8%
|
-57
|
-57
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
20.9%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-1.2%
|
0.3%
|
-29
|
-29
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
8.7%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-1.2%
|
-0.6%
|
-26
|
-26
|
|
TDY
|
04/29/05
|
18.4%
|
Teledyne
Technologies Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-7.7%
|
4.5%
|
-24
|
-24
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
-1.2%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-5.6%
|
0.6%
|
-24
|
-24
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
RD
|
04/29/05
|
7.8%
|
Royal
Dutch Petroleum Co.
|
Services
|
Printing
& Publishing
|
-6.3%
|
0.0%
|
-87
|
-87
|
|
PKX
|
04/29/05
|
16.3%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-7.2%
|
-6.4%
|
-72
|
-72
|
|
NTE
|
05/06/05
|
14.4%
|
Nam Tai
Electronics, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Electronic
Instruments & Controls
|
-8.1%
|
-3.7%
|
-70
|
-70
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
7.7%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-6.2%
|
-0.6%
|
-72
|
-69
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
36.6%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-7.1%
|
-6.3%
|
-68
|
-68
|
|
BTI
|
08/12/05
|
5.4%
|
British
American Tobacco (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Tobacco
|
-2.5%
|
0.4%
|
-52
|
-52
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
20.8%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-3.6%
|
-1.9%
|
-46
|
-46
|
|
TMX
|
06/03/05
|
12.5%
|
Telefonos
de Mexico, S.A. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-3.1%
|
-2.2%
|
-41
|
-41
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
16.6%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-7.1%
|
-0.3%
|
-43
|
-35
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3F is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3F
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
3.4%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-9.7%
|
-9.7%
|
-98
|
-98
|
|
ELBO
|
01/31/05
|
78.1%
|
Electronics
Boutique Holdings Corp.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Technology)
|
-6.6%
|
-0.5%
|
-90
|
-87
|
|
STLD
|
05/20/05
|
7.3%
|
Steel
Dynamics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-13.9%
|
-11.6%
|
-84
|
-84
|
|
DHI
|
08/26/05
|
-3.5%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-14.0%
|
-8.4%
|
-77
|
-77
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
14.8%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-7.1%
|
-5.0%
|
-74
|
-74
|
|
CECO
|
09/30/05
|
-3.4%
|
Career
Education Corp.
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-4.3%
|
-3.4%
|
-72
|
-70
|
|
FNF
|
07/29/05
|
8.3%
|
Fidelity
National Financial
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-4.8%
|
-4.1%
|
-68
|
-68
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
-5.3%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-13.3%
|
-3.0%
|
-66
|
-66
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
6.2%
|
Arkansas Best
Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-7.8%
|
-4.0%
|
-56
|
-56
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
33.4%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
-3.7%
|
-3.3%
|
-47
|
-52
|
|
RI
|
09/02/05
|
0.1%
|
Ruby
Tuesday, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-8.5%
|
-0.6%
|
-59
|
-46
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
0.6%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-5.4%
|
-1.8%
|
-44
|
-44
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
25.0%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
-6.9%
|
-1.0%
|
-38
|
-38
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
23.6%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-2.7%
|
-0.7%
|
-34
|
-34
|
|
NKE
|
09/23/05
|
1.8%
|
NIKE, Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Footwear
|
0.0%
|
1.3%
|
-27
|
-26
|
|
EASI
|
09/09/05
|
21.4%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-0.8%
|
-0.4%
|
-7
|
-7
|
Stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3G. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
UU
|
06/10/05
|
-5.0%
|
United
Utilities PLC (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-7.1%
|
-1.8%
|
-88
|
-87
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
7.9%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-6.6%
|
-4.1%
|
-87
|
-86
|
|
OKE
|
04/15/05
|
13.1%
|
ONEOK,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-9.2%
|
-4.6%
|
-82
|
-81
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
21.6%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-7.4%
|
-6.6%
|
-78
|
-78
|
|
CEG
|
04/29/05
|
10.1%
|
Constellation
Energy Group
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-6.9%
|
-6.1%
|
-74
|
-74
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
-2.5%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-6.1%
|
-4.0%
|
-71
|
-71
|
|
NFG
|
04/08/05
|
15.3%
|
National
Fuel Gas Co.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-5.3%
|
-3.7%
|
-73
|
-68
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
-0.2%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-7.3%
|
-2.4%
|
-66
|
-66
|
|
ATG
|
04/29/05
|
1.9%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-9.8%
|
-5.0%
|
-61
|
-61
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
4.1%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-5.8%
|
-0.8%
|
-59
|
-59
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
32.1%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-2.4%
|
-1.8%
|
-46
|
-46
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
40.3%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-5.5%
|
-1.5%
|
-38
|
-38
|
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of
investing are listed in Table 3H.
Table 3H
John Templeton Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
JNJ
|
05/27/05
|
-9.0%
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
Health
Care
|
Major
Drugs
|
-9.0%
|
-3.1%
|
-95
|
-95
|
|
MTB
|
05/27/05
|
-0.5%
|
M&T
Bank Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-8.7%
|
-3.0%
|
-92
|
-91
|
|
DGX
|
08/19/05
|
-1.5%
|
Quest
Diagnostics Incorporated
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-4.4%
|
-2.6%
|
-84
|
-84
|
|
SNV
|
05/27/05
|
-7.2%
|
Synovus
Financial Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-9.4%
|
-2.1%
|
-85
|
-82
|
|
MBT
|
06/17/05
|
15.9%
|
Mobile
TeleSystems OJSC (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-7.9%
|
-6.7%
|
-76
|
-76
|
|
SFG
|
05/27/05
|
10.8%
|
StanCorp
Financial Group, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Life)
|
-6.6%
|
-1.3%
|
-34
|
-34
|
|
WSM
|
09/02/05
|
1.4%
|
Williams-Sonoma,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-2.4%
|
0.3%
|
-26
|
-26
|
|
EDMC
|
06/03/05
|
-0.8%
|
Education
Management Corp
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-9.6%
|
0.0%
|
-23
|
-23
|
|
CPS
|
05/27/05
|
7.5%
|
ChoicePoint
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-1.4%
|
-0.2%
|
-33
|
-19
|
|
EASI
|
06/03/05
|
16.4%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-0.8%
|
-0.4%
|
-7
|
-7
|
Optionable stocks from
Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
Martin Zweig Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
EXP
|
05/27/05
|
25.5%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
-8.4%
|
-6.3%
|
-82
|
-82
|
|
APA
|
05/27/05
|
12.6%
|
Apache
Corporation
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-13.8%
|
-11.5%
|
-82
|
-82
|
|
KBH
|
09/02/05
|
-7.9%
|
KB Home
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-13.1%
|
-8.5%
|
-82
|
-82
|
|
SFCC
|
07/08/05
|
7.0%
|
SFBC
International, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-9.0%
|
-7.0%
|
-81
|
-80
|
|
SM
|
08/05/05
|
6.2%
|
St. Mary
Land & Exploration Co.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-10.6%
|
-7.7%
|
-74
|
-74
|
|
BR
|
07/29/05
|
13.5%
|
Burlington
Resources Inc.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-12.1%
|
-10.6%
|
-71
|
-71
|
|
JUPM
|
08/19/05
|
5.1%
|
Jupitermedia
Corporation
|
Services
|
Advertising
|
-7.1%
|
-2.6%
|
-60
|
-60
|
|
RESP
|
06/03/05
|
19.4%
|
Respironics,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-3.8%
|
-2.8%
|
-59
|
-59
|
|
CAE
|
06/10/05
|
14.1%
|
Cascade
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-3.0%
|
-3.0%
|
-45
|
-45
|
|
PKZ
|
07/01/05
|
40.2%
|
HURRICANE
HYDROCARBONS LTD
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
-4.1%
|
-2.1%
|
-48
|
-45
|
|
POOL
|
06/10/05
|
1.3%
|
SCP Pool
Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-6.2%
|
-0.8%
|
-42
|
-42
|
|
CMTL
|
07/01/05
|
25.5%
|
Comtech
Telecomm. Corp.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-3.0%
|
-0.3%
|
-28
|
-28
|
|
MCO
|
07/29/05
|
7.8%
|
Moody's
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-1.3%
|
-0.1%
|
-19
|
-19
|
|
CRDN
|
08/19/05
|
26.4%
|
Ceradyne,
Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Aerospace
and Defense
|
0.0%
|
5.2%
|
-7
|
-7
|
4.0
Trading Results
This section highlights
performance of stocks and options trades. Only a summary is provided here to
save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the
website.
Options Trading
|
Options Trading Estimation Model -
Minimum Suggested Initial Capital is $3,000
|
|
Number of trades in 2005 =
|
61
|
61
|
61
|
(1.5 trades per week)
|
|
Number of contracts per trade =
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
Avg. Premium Cost per trade =
|
$607.51
|
$1,215.02
|
$1,822.52
|
|
|
Total Premiums =
|
$37,058.00
|
$74,116.00
|
$111,174.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit =
|
$4,269.10
|
$8,538.20
|
$12,807.31
|
(11.8%)
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$1,371.28
|
-$1,523.78
|
-$1,676.28
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$600.00
|
-$600.00
|
-$600.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$2,297.82
|
$6,414.42
|
$10,531.03
|
(Avg.
holding period 8.3 days)
|
Stock Trading
|
Stock Trading Model ($10,000
Initial Capital)
|
|
No. of Closed trades in 2005 =
|
55
|
(1.3 Trades per Week)
|
|
Average Trade Size =
|
$1,000.00
|
|
|
Total Share costs =
|
$55,000.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit on Closed Positions=
|
$1,494.28
|
|
|
Gross Profit on Open Positions =
|
$543.79
|
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$1,178.82
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$70.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$253.24
|
(2.5%)
|
5.0 Conclusion
Net Growth of Total Capital in
2005
|
Stock
Advisory (initial capital $10,000)
|
+ 2.5%
|
|
Options
Advisory (trading 2 contracts)
Aggressive,
20% of risk capital per trade
Moderate, 15% of risk capital per trade
Conservative, 10% of risk capital per trade
|
+116.2%
+ 87.1%
+ 58.1%
|
|
Major Indices Year to Date
10/08/05
|
|
DOW
|
-4.6%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
-3.9%
|
|
S&P500
|
-1.3%
|
|
Russell
2000
|
-1.1%
|
Appendix - Investment Conference
Schedule
Below are links to
conference registration sites where you can sign up.
- 10-15-05 Scottsdale, Arizona "Why Do We Invest? The
Financial Planning and Psychological Side Of Investing Money", presented by Ives Machiz,
President, Ives Asset Management, Inc. Location: Scottsdale Civic Center Library Auditorium 480/312-7946, 3839 North Drinkwater Blvd., Scottsdale (call facility for handicap accessibility). At this program you will learn: (1)
A framework to compare financial goals and the investment strategy used to
achieve them, (2) A clear view of the risk levels necessary to achieve a
financial goal and (3) A foundation for understanding why we make the
investment decisions we make.
- 10-30-05 New Orleans, LA "New Orleans Investment Conference"
- 11-10-05 Millbrae, CA "Biotech Investing
Conference" Continuing advances in genomics, proteomics and
enabling technologies makes the Biotech sector a favorite among private
equity investors and venture capitalists. The Biotech Investing Conference
is an industry gathering of the leading private equity investors, venture
capitalists, biotech companies, pharmaceutical companies, corporate
investors and institutional investors.
- 11-27-05 San Francisco, CA "Gold and Precious Metals Conference"
Both
professional and sophisticated private investors meet with the world's
leaders in gold, silver, precious metals, copper and oil and gas
exploration and production. The Natural Resource industry's newest
opportunities are presented, together with educational seminars, executive
panels and investment workshops led by top finance specialists, economic
analysts and newsletter editors. Admission is complimentary with
pre-registration.
- 01-30-06 Miami, Florida "IIR’s 19th Annual
Private Placements Industry Forum" is the pre-eminent gathering for the latest developments in
originating, buying and structuring private debt placements. Join us in
sunny Miami, Florida in January as the industry’s leading decision makers
discuss new market trends, including: project finance, cross border deals
and the impact of pre-designated investor counsel. Plus, enjoy over 6 hours of networking opportunities including our two hour Rooftop Dessert and Cordial Suite. Don’t delay, register for
the Institute for International
Research's 19th Annual Private Placements Industry Forum today!.
- 02-07-06 Cape Town, South Africa "Investing in African
Mining Conference" Africa's most important
mining event and the world's leading gathering of global policy makers and
international finance, the Mining INDABA has raised billions of dollars
and introduced the international investment community to mining interests
throughout Africa. The Mining Indaba has become an institution
throughout Africa, attracting over 2,000 delegates from fifty countries
and hosting over 100 exhibitors.
Conference Search
