______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 48 – October 17, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
Since September 12, 2005 we
have described the individual effects of year ago stock multiples on current
stock prices one year later. Year ago multiples involved price to earnings
ratio (PE), price to book ratio (PB), price to sales ratio (PS) and return on
equity (ROE). Sales growth was described last week. This week continues with
the effect of earnings (EPS) growth.
1.1 EPS Growth
The analysis involved NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX stocks
that had earnings data and were priced above $4. Advanced Depository Receipts,
Over the Counter Stocks and Exchange Traded Funds were excluded. Information
was available for the group of 2632 stocks shown in Figure 1. The chart on the
left shows the entire population. The zoomed in chart on the right shows that
for typical EPS growth, one could have obtained a wide range of possible
outcomes.
FIGURE 1
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web
site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
The 2,632 stocks were sorted into seven EPS growth
ranges and used to plot 52 week price gain histograms. The data is summarized
in Figure 2. Market data for the past year shows that the probability of lowest
risk occurred for EPS growth in the range 30 to 50%. EPS growth outside this
range was either more difficult to sustain or was not considered to have
sufficient value and resulted in a 25% or greater probability of loss.
Probabilities for the lowest price gains of zero to 25%
were higher as EPS growth decreased. The probability of price gains of 25% or
greater increased with EPS growth.
FIGURE 2
Based on the predictable
behavior of price changes with EPS growth, it is likely that a larger
percentage of investors use EPS growth as a single indicator of stock behavior compared
to others discussed in this series of analysis. There is no way to
definitively prove this, however.
The percentages of stocks
in Figure 2 can be treated as probabilities of price gains for EPS growth ranges
over the past year only. How investors evaluate stocks changes from year to
year and accounts for annual changes in the character of the market.
Once again it is good to
keep in mind that long term fundamentals are inappropriate for short term
trading. From here the study will begin to look at the effects of combinations
of multiples, as well as, how they have correlated with price changes over
shorter time periods of 3, 6 and 9 months.
2.0 Market Analysis
October is a spooky month
for both bulls and bears. More than half the time bear market bottoms have
been put in followed by rallies of 5% or more. Other times we have experienced
some of the darkest days in market history as in 1929, 1987 and 1989. Last
week the market declined due to inflation fears. The CPI was up significantly
due to energy but the core CPI was very tame. The market stabilized on Thursday
and recovered on Friday. This coming week earnings reports begin in full
swing. More choppiness can be expected.
Key industry ETF’s in Table
2A are Biotech and Semiconductors which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation
confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking
and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Real
Estate are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency and
consumer spending.
Table 2A
Index Tracking
Stocks, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month
|
1 wk ago
|
2 wks ago
|
3 wks ago
|
4 wks ago
|
|
DIA (DOW)
|
-3.2%
|
-0.1%
|
-2.6%
|
1.6%
|
-2.0%
|
|
QQQQ (NASDAQ 100)
|
-3.4%
|
-0.7%
|
-2.8%
|
1.8%
|
-1.6%
|
|
SPY (S&P 500)
|
-3.9%
|
-0.8%
|
-2.8%
|
1.3%
|
-1.7%
|
|
IWM (Russell 2000)
|
-6.0%
|
-1.9%
|
-3.4%
|
1.9%
|
-2.6%
|
|
GLD, GOLD
|
2.1%
|
-1.2%
|
1.4%
|
0.9%
|
1.0%
|
|
RKH, Banking
|
-4.2%
|
0.4%
|
-0.9%
|
-0.9%
|
-2.8%
|
|
IYT, Transportation
|
0.3%
|
-0.8%
|
-1.5%
|
3.1%
|
-0.5%
|
|
SMH, Semiconductors
|
-6.6%
|
-2.8%
|
-4.0%
|
2.0%
|
-1.9%
|
|
BBH, Biotechnology
|
-6.1%
|
1.2%
|
-3.5%
|
-0.9%
|
-3.0%
|
|
IYR, Real Estate
|
-7.4%
|
-1.3%
|
-4.4%
|
2.5%
|
-4.2%
|
|
OIH, Oil
|
-6.3%
|
-1.8%
|
-8.0%
|
3.3%
|
0.4%
|
|
XLE,
Energy
|
-7.5%
|
-2.4%
|
-7.7%
|
2.1%
|
0.5%
|
|
XLU,
Utilities
|
-8.1%
|
-4.4%
|
-4.0%
|
2.8%
|
-2.7%
|
|
XLB,
Materials
|
-5.4%
|
-1.0%
|
-3.3%
|
1.6%
|
-2.7%
|
|
XLI,
Industrial
|
-1.6%
|
-0.6%
|
-1.2%
|
1.4%
|
-1.2%
|
|
XLK,
Technology
|
-4.6%
|
-1.0%
|
-3.3%
|
1.6%
|
-2.0%
|
|
XLV,
Healthcare
|
-3.7%
|
0.2%
|
-1.9%
|
-0.4%
|
-1.7%
|
|
XLF,
Financials
|
-2.9%
|
-0.2%
|
-1.3%
|
0.6%
|
-2.0%
|
|
XLP,
Consumer Staples
|
-1.4%
|
-0.4%
|
-1.9%
|
2.4%
|
-1.5%
|
|
XLY,
Consumer Discretionary
|
-5.3%
|
-1.0%
|
-2.4%
|
0.6%
|
-2.6%
|
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades.
Categories include check lists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as
well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders.
Current stock rankings are
based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the
Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1”
and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading
day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less
negative than -20 are overbought.
A column labeled “Weekly %
Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the
past week and the Williams %R. With this systematic way of ranking stocks, the
complete list of stocks for each filter is presented.
One should keep in mind
that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very
well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as
a starting point for further due diligence.
The “Reference” is the date
that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to
the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.
Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed. The “% from Max”
is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since
the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being
listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after
being listed are removed. More information on filters is available on the web
site.
A performance summary of
filtering techniques for check lists and master trader selection methods is
given in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter
|
Avg. % Change Since Listed
|
Avg. % Change Friday
|
Past Month
|
Past Week
|
2 weeks Ago
|
3 Weeks Ago
|
4 Weeks Ago
|
|
Net Insider Buying
|
6.9%
|
2.0%
|
10.0%
|
-2.0%
|
1.7%
|
13.5%
|
-2.2%
|
|
Cash Rich Companies
|
2.3%
|
1.2%
|
-3.3%
|
-0.2%
|
0.6%
|
-3.0%
|
-1.0%
|
|
Growth Momentum Stocks
|
6.2%
|
1.8%
|
-2.5%
|
-1.1%
|
-2.7%
|
2.4%
|
-1.0%
|
|
Lynch Stocks
|
12.5%
|
0.4%
|
-3.0%
|
-2.5%
|
-2.3%
|
2.3%
|
-0.4%
|
|
Buffett Stocks
|
8.0%
|
1.5%
|
-2.5%
|
-0.3%
|
-3.0%
|
1.1%
|
-0.4%
|
|
Graham Stocks
|
5.5%
|
0.7%
|
-8.1%
|
-4.9%
|
-3.4%
|
1.8%
|
-1.8%
|
|
Templeton Stocks
|
2.7%
|
0.6%
|
-2.5%
|
-0.2%
|
-3.8%
|
1.1%
|
0.5%
|
|
Zweig Stocks
|
12.4%
|
2.5%
|
-1.2%
|
-2.0%
|
-3.1%
|
4.3%
|
-0.2%
|
|
Average
|
7.1%
|
1.3%
|
-1.6%
|
-1.6%
|
-2.0%
|
2.9%
|
-0.8%
|
Key
|
Passed
Recent Filter
|
|
Price
declined by half of stop loss setting
|
|
Oversold
based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent)
|
|
Overbought
based on Williams %R
(%R2 is most recent)
|
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master
trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious
consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those
that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
REDE
|
09/02/05
|
0.3%
|
RedEnvelope,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Catalog & Mail Order)
|
-10.1%
|
-9.8%
|
-84
|
-84
|
|
ZHNE
|
10/07/05
|
-8.3%
|
Zhone
Technologies, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-8.3%
|
-8.3%
|
-71
|
-71
|
|
IRN
|
08/05/05
|
14.6%
|
Rewards
Network Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-5.5%
|
-2.7%
|
-68
|
-68
|
|
KIRK
|
09/30/05
|
-1.1%
|
Kirkland's, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-4.0%
|
-0.5%
|
-70
|
-65
|
|
PCTY
|
09/16/05
|
24.2%
|
Party City
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-3.0%
|
-1.0%
|
-62
|
-62
|
|
MBRX
|
10/14/05
|
0.0%
|
Metabasis
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
-11.6%
|
-60
|
-60
|
|
AMIC
|
08/26/05
|
-5.1%
|
American
Independence Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Miscellaneous)
|
-5.4%
|
0.2%
|
-53
|
-53
|
|
MEMY
|
09/30/05
|
0.0%
|
Memory
Pharmaceuticals Corp.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-10.0%
|
-3.2%
|
-44
|
-51
|
|
MEAD
|
09/30/05
|
-0.4%
|
Meade
Instruments Corp.
|
Technology
|
Scientific
& Technical Instruments
|
-4.7%
|
-3.6%
|
-34
|
-50
|
|
MNKD
|
10/07/05
|
3.8%
|
MannKind
Corporation
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
3.8%
|
-47
|
-47
|
|
MTRX
|
10/14/05
|
0.0%
|
Matrix
Service Company
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
-1.1%
|
-39
|
-40
|
|
ISO
|
10/07/05
|
10.7%
|
ISCO
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
0.0%
|
10.7%
|
-33
|
-33
|
|
CRTX
|
08/12/05
|
51.4%
|
Critical
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-8.1%
|
1.6%
|
-31
|
-33
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.
These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet
additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again
this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
CNTF
|
10/14/05
|
0.0%
|
China
Techfaith Wireless Comm. Tech. Ltd
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Personal
& Household Products
|
0.0%
|
-12.8%
|
-92
|
-90
|
|
CLCT
|
10/07/05
|
-0.2%
|
Collectors
Universe, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-0.5%
|
-0.2%
|
-37
|
-36
|
|
WSC
|
07/01/05
|
-2.1%
|
Wesco
Financial Corporation
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-2.1%
|
0.6%
|
-18
|
-20
|
|
WZEN
|
10/07/05
|
11.6%
|
Webzen
Inc. (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
11.6%
|
-1
|
-1
|
For the screen in
Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3D
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
EXP
|
07/29/05
|
3.3%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
-14.6%
|
-6.7%
|
-82
|
-82
|
|
BHP
|
09/09/05
|
-3.2%
|
BHP
Billiton Limited (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Metal
Mining
|
-10.7%
|
-1.4%
|
-80
|
-80
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
5.6%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-8.7%
|
-0.2%
|
-74
|
-74
|
|
ADVNB
|
05/20/05
|
5.7%
|
Advanta
Corp.
|
Financial
|
Consumer
Financial Services
|
-14.0%
|
-1.7%
|
-73
|
-70
|
|
LM
|
08/12/05
|
-4.0%
|
Legg
Mason, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
-4.5%
|
-1.7%
|
-59
|
-59
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
21.0%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-1.1%
|
0.1%
|
-39
|
-39
|
|
TDY
|
04/29/05
|
17.7%
|
Teledyne
Technologies Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-8.2%
|
-0.6%
|
-28
|
-34
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
-0.7%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-5.2%
|
0.5%
|
-30
|
-30
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
10.3%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
0.0%
|
1.4%
|
-14
|
-14
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
TMX
|
06/03/05
|
8.8%
|
Telefonos
de Mexico, S.A. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-6.3%
|
-3.3%
|
-85
|
-91
|
|
PKX
|
04/29/05
|
9.0%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-13.1%
|
-6.3%
|
-88
|
-88
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
30.4%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-11.3%
|
-4.5%
|
-81
|
-81
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
6.2%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-7.5%
|
-1.4%
|
-78
|
-78
|
|
BTI
|
08/12/05
|
2.0%
|
British
American Tobacco (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Tobacco
|
-5.7%
|
-3.2%
|
-75
|
-75
|
|
RD
|
04/29/05
|
7.8%
|
ROYAL
DUTCH PETROLEUM CO
|
Services
|
Printing
& Publishing
|
-6.3%
|
0.0%
|
-74
|
-74
|
|
NTE
|
05/06/05
|
10.7%
|
Nam Tai
Electronics, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Electronic
Instruments & Controls
|
-11.1%
|
-3.3%
|
-68
|
-68
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
14.5%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-8.7%
|
-1.8%
|
-68
|
-68
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
22.8%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-2.0%
|
1.7%
|
-30
|
-30
|
The filter for Warren Buffet
style stock picking in Table 3F is for the intermediate to long term. Two
requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in order to
find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only those
stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3F
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
0.5%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-12.2%
|
-2.8%
|
-88
|
-88
|
|
FNF
|
07/29/05
|
2.9%
|
Fidelity
National Financial
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-9.6%
|
-5.0%
|
-84
|
-84
|
|
CECO
|
09/30/05
|
-4.5%
|
Career
Education Corp.
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-5.4%
|
-1.2%
|
-79
|
-79
|
|
MIK
|
10/14/05
|
0.0%
|
Michaels
Stores, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
-3.6%
|
-78
|
-78
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
30.1%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
-6.1%
|
-2.4%
|
-74
|
-74
|
|
RI
|
09/02/05
|
-2.5%
|
Ruby
Tuesday, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-10.9%
|
-2.6%
|
-68
|
-68
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
11.5%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-9.8%
|
-2.9%
|
-67
|
-67
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
6.3%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
-7.7%
|
0.2%
|
-59
|
-59
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
-5.2%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-13.2%
|
0.1%
|
-58
|
-58
|
|
NKE
|
09/23/05
|
0.5%
|
NIKE, Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Footwear
|
-1.5%
|
-1.3%
|
-56
|
-56
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
23.1%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
-8.3%
|
-1.5%
|
-53
|
-53
|
|
EASI
|
09/09/05
|
21.7%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-0.6%
|
0.2%
|
-43
|
-43
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
1.0%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-5.0%
|
0.4%
|
-37
|
-37
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
35.1%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
0.0%
|
9.3%
|
-8
|
-8
|
|
HDI
|
10/14/05
|
0.0%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
0.0%
|
9.2%
|
-4
|
-4
|
Stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3G. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
CV
|
10/14/05
|
0.0%
|
Central
Vermont Public Services Corp.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
0.0%
|
-6.3%
|
-96
|
-96
|
|
CEG
|
04/29/05
|
3.9%
|
Constellation
Energy Group
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-12.1%
|
-5.6%
|
-94
|
-94
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
-5.5%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-12.2%
|
-5.3%
|
-92
|
-92
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
18.8%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-9.6%
|
-2.3%
|
-90
|
-90
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
3.3%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-10.6%
|
-4.2%
|
-87
|
-87
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
32.1%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-11.0%
|
-5.8%
|
-86
|
-86
|
|
NFG
|
04/08/05
|
8.9%
|
National
Fuel Gas Co.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-10.6%
|
-5.6%
|
-82
|
-82
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
-5.6%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-9.1%
|
-3.2%
|
-81
|
-81
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
20.4%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-11.0%
|
-8.9%
|
-80
|
-80
|
|
ATG
|
04/29/05
|
-0.8%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-12.3%
|
-2.7%
|
-78
|
-78
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
-2.7%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-11.9%
|
-6.5%
|
-78
|
-78
|
|
UU
|
06/10/05
|
-6.7%
|
United
Utilities PLC (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-8.8%
|
-1.8%
|
-70
|
-68
|
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of
investing are listed in Table 3H.
Table 3H
John Templeton Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
MBT
|
06/17/05
|
7.5%
|
Mobile
TeleSystems OJSC (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-14.5%
|
-7.2%
|
-90
|
-90
|
|
AMSG
|
10/14/05
|
0.0%
|
AmSurg
Corp.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
0.0%
|
3.5%
|
-84
|
-84
|
|
CPS
|
05/27/05
|
6.4%
|
ChoicePoint
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-2.5%
|
-1.1%
|
-73
|
-73
|
|
DGX
|
08/19/05
|
-1.8%
|
Quest
Diagnostics Incorporated
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-4.7%
|
-0.3%
|
-68
|
-66
|
|
WSM
|
09/02/05
|
-2.3%
|
Williams-Sonoma,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-6.0%
|
-3.7%
|
-58
|
-58
|
|
MTB
|
05/27/05
|
0.9%
|
M&T
Bank Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-7.4%
|
1.4%
|
-57
|
-57
|
|
SNV
|
05/27/05
|
-6.2%
|
Synovus
Financial Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-8.4%
|
1.1%
|
-50
|
-50
|
|
EASI
|
06/03/05
|
16.7%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc. Capital
Goods
|
-0.6%
|
0.2%
|
-43
|
-43
|
|
SFG
|
05/27/05
|
11.1%
|
StanCorp
Financial Group, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Life)
|
-6.3%
|
0.3%
|
-34
|
-36
|
|
JNJ
|
05/27/05
|
-5.5%
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
Health
Care
|
Major
Drugs
|
-5.5%
|
3.8%
|
-22
|
-22
|
Optionable stocks from
Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
Martin Zweig Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
POOL
|
06/10/05
|
-5.0%
|
SCP Pool
Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-11.9%
|
-6.2%
|
-100
|
-100
|
|
EXP
|
05/27/05
|
17.1%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
-14.6%
|
-6.7%
|
-82
|
-82
|
|
SM
|
08/05/05
|
5.2%
|
St. Mary
Land & Exploration Co.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-11.5%
|
-0.9%
|
-71
|
-71
|
|
SFCC
|
07/08/05
|
4.8%
|
SFBC
International, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-10.8%
|
-2.1%
|
-69
|
-69
|
|
MCO
|
07/29/05
|
5.7%
|
Moody's
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-3.2%
|
-2.0%
|
-65
|
-68
|
|
SFY
|
10/14/05
|
0.0%
|
Swift
Energy Company
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
0.0%
|
1.5%
|
-59
|
-59
|
|
RESP
|
06/03/05
|
16.3%
|
Respironics,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-6.4%
|
-2.6%
|
-59
|
-59
|
|
CMTL
|
07/01/05
|
20.6%
|
Comtech
Telecomm. Corp.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-6.7%
|
-3.8%
|
-58
|
-58
|
|
JUPM
|
08/19/05
|
6.5%
|
Jupitermedia
Corporation
|
Services
|
Advertising
|
-5.8%
|
1.4%
|
-57
|
-57
|
|
CAE
|
06/10/05
|
14.0%
|
Cascade
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-3.1%
|
-0.1%
|
-42
|
-42
|
|
CRDN
|
08/19/05
|
23.4%
|
Ceradyne,
Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Aerospace
and Defense
|
-2.3%
|
-2.3%
|
-34
|
-40
|
|
PKZ
|
07/01/05
|
39.7%
|
HURRICANE
HYDROCARBONS LTD
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
-4.4%
|
-0.4%
|
-22
|
-22
|
4.0
Trading Results
This section highlights
performance of stocks and options trades. Only a summary is provided here to
save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the
website.
Options Trading
|
Options Trading Estimation Model -
Minimum Suggested Initial Capital is $3,000
|
|
Number of trades in 2005 =
|
61
|
61
|
61
|
(1.5 trades per week)
|
|
Number of contracts per trade =
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
Avg. Premium Cost per trade =
|
$607.51
|
$1,215.02
|
$1,822.52
|
|
|
Total Premiums =
|
$37,058.00
|
$74,116.00
|
$111,174.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit =
|
$4,269.10
|
$8,538.20
|
$12,807.31
|
(11.8%)
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$1,371.28
|
-$1,523.78
|
-$1,676.28
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$600.00
|
-$600.00
|
-$600.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$2,297.82
|
$6,414.42
|
$10,531.03
|
(Avg.
holding period 8.3 days)
|
5.0 Conclusion
Net Growth of Total Capital in
2005
|
Options
Advisory (trading 2 contracts)
Aggressive, 20% of risk capital per trade
Moderate, 15% of risk capital per trade
Conservative, 10% of risk capital per trade
|
+116.2%
+ 87.1%
+ 58.1%
|
|
Major Indices Year to Date
10/15/05
|
|
DOW
|
-4.6%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
-5.1%
|
|
S&P500
|
-2.1%
|
|
Russell
2000
|
-2.8%
|
Appendix - Investment Conference
Schedule
Below are links to
conference registration sites where you can sign up.
- 10-30-05 New Orleans, LA "New Orleans Investment Conference"
- 11-10-05 Millbrae, CA "Biotech Investing
Conference" Continuing advances in genomics, proteomics and
enabling technologies makes the Biotech sector a favorite among private
equity investors and venture capitalists. The Biotech Investing Conference
is an industry gathering of the leading private equity investors, venture
capitalists, biotech companies, pharmaceutical companies, corporate
investors and institutional investors.
- 11-27-05 San Francisco, CA "Gold and Precious Metals Conference"
Both
professional and sophisticated private investors meet with the world's
leaders in gold, silver, precious metals, copper and oil and gas
exploration and production. The Natural Resource industry's newest
opportunities are presented, together with educational seminars, executive
panels and investment workshops led by top finance specialists, economic
analysts and newsletter editors. Admission is complimentary with
pre-registration.
- 01-30-06 Miami, Florida "IIR’s 19th Annual
Private Placements Industry Forum" is the pre-eminent gathering for the latest developments in
originating, buying and structuring private debt placements. Join us in
sunny Miami, Florida in January as the industry’s leading decision makers
discuss new market trends, including: project finance, cross border deals
and the impact of pre-designated investor counsel. Plus, enjoy over 6 hours of networking opportunities including our two hour Rooftop Dessert and Cordial Suite. Don’t delay, register for
the Institute for International
Research's 19th Annual Private Placements Industry Forum today!.
- 02-07-06 Cape Town, South Africa "Investing in African
Mining Conference" Africa's most important
mining event and the world's leading gathering of global policy makers and
international finance, the Mining INDABA has raised billions of dollars
and introduced the international investment community to mining interests
throughout Africa. The Mining Indaba has become an institution
throughout Africa, attracting over 2,000 delegates from fifty countries
and hosting over 100 exhibitors.
Conference Search
