______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 51 – November 7, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
PE values measured relative
to those of a stock’s industry take into account the variation in mean PE from
one industry to another.
1.1 Ratio of PE to Industry PE
Analysis
of September 2004 market data indicated that a PE of less than 10 provided the
lowest probability of loss over the following year that ended in mid September
2005. The relationship is a moving target, however, because a month later in
October 2004 the major averages began at higher starting values and ended lower
in mid October 2005. The October 2004 analysis showed that a year ago PE of 15
or less provided the lowest probability of loss over the following year. This
shows how dynamically the markets can change in a short time.
It
is useful to compare the impact of absolute values of PE with values specified
as multiples of their industry averages. A PE of 10 or 15 would be considered
out of line for the Oil & Gas industry with an average PE of 6 and a super
value for the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials industry with an average PE
of over 100. A comparison is made between absolute PE’s in Figure 1 and
industry relative vales of PE in Figure 2 over the year ending in mid October
2005.
The
lowest risk of loss occurred for PE’s in the range of 10 to 15 in Figure 1 and
for companies having a PE of 0.5 to 0.75 of their industry average in Figure
2. One might expect even lower PE’s to provide a lower risk of loss. But
lower PE’s were accompanied with a higher risk of loss as well as a higher
probability of the highest gains. As seen before, PE doesn’t tell the full
story of a stock’s value. In some cases a lower PE can indicate stocks that
were priced out of favor due to declining sales, return on equity or other
reasons.
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web
site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
FIGURE 1
FIGURE 2
2.0 Market Analysis
With the exception of auto
sales, same store sales data lead to a market rally this week. Retail, energy
and financials were the market leaders this week. About 85% of S&P500
companies have reported that earnings are likely to reflect a 15% gain over the
same quarter last year. Earnings forecasts for the fourth quarter remain in
the 12% to 15% range.
Key industry ETF’s in Table
2A are Biotech and Semiconductors which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation
confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking
and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Real
Estate are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency and the
capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A
Indices, Key Industry
ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month
|
1 wk ago
|
2 wks ago
|
3 wks ago
|
4 wks ago
|
|
Dow Jones Industrials
|
2.3%
|
1.2%
|
1.8%
|
-0.7%
|
0.0%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
3.8%
|
3.8%
|
0.4%
|
0.8%
|
-1.2%
|
|
S & P 500
|
2.0%
|
1.8%
|
1.6%
|
-0.6%
|
-0.8%
|
|
Russell 2000
|
2.1%
|
3.6%
|
0.4%
|
-0.1%
|
-1.7%
|
|
GLD, GOLD
|
-3.9%
|
-3.6%
|
1.5%
|
-0.6%
|
-1.2%
|
|
RKH, Banking
|
5.6%
|
0.4%
|
2.6%
|
2.0%
|
0.4%
|
|
IYT, Transportation
|
7.4%
|
5.4%
|
3.0%
|
-0.3%
|
-0.8%
|
|
SMH, Semiconductors
|
-0.5%
|
5.9%
|
-4.1%
|
0.8%
|
-2.8%
|
|
BBH, Biotechnology
|
9.2%
|
6.0%
|
2.6%
|
-0.8%
|
1.2%
|
|
IYR, Real Estate
|
-0.1%
|
-1.2%
|
2.5%
|
-0.1%
|
-1.3%
|
|
OIH, Oil
|
5.2%
|
3.2%
|
6.5%
|
-2.5%
|
-1.8%
|
|
XLE,
Energy
|
-0.1%
|
2.5%
|
4.9%
|
-4.8%
|
-2.4%
|
|
XLU,
Utilities
|
-4.3%
|
-0.5%
|
2.3%
|
-1.7%
|
-4.4%
|
|
XLB,
Materials
|
4.7%
|
1.3%
|
3.6%
|
0.8%
|
-1.0%
|
|
XLI,
Industrial
|
1.0%
|
1.5%
|
1.2%
|
-1.1%
|
-0.6%
|
|
XLK, Technology
|
3.4%
|
3.4%
|
0.2%
|
0.8%
|
-1.0%
|
|
XLV,
Healthcare
|
-0.3%
|
1.3%
|
0.1%
|
-1.9%
|
0.2%
|
|
XLF,
Financials
|
5.1%
|
1.1%
|
3.2%
|
1.0%
|
-0.2%
|
|
XLP,
Consumer Staples
|
1.5%
|
0.4%
|
0.9%
|
0.5%
|
-0.4%
|
|
XLY,
Consumer Discretionary
|
2.6%
|
3.9%
|
0.1%
|
-0.4%
|
-1.0%
|
Major Indices
For the Past Week:
Dow Jones +1.2%
NASDAQ +3.8%
S&P500 Index +1.8%
Russell 2000 +3.6%
30 Year Bond 4.852%
10 Year Note 4.657%
Leading Industries
For the Past Week:
Apparel Retailers
Travel & Tourism
Home Construction
Internet
Specialty Retailers
Heavy Construction
Clothing & Accessories
Telecommunications Equipment
Recreational Services
Reinsurance
Lagging Industries
For the Past Week:
Gold Mining
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Food Retailers & Wholesalers
Personal Products
Food Producers
Food Products
Tobacco
Mortgage Finance
Soft Drinks
Fixed Line Telecommunications
Leading Industries
For the Past Month:
Platinum & Precious Metals
Internet
Transportation Services
Trucking
General Mining
Industrial Suppliers
Delivery Services
Airlines
Asset Managers
Business Training & Employment
Lagging Industries
For the Past Month:
Water
Gold Mining
Consumer Electronics
Electricity
Forestry
Utilities
Pipelines
Multiutilities
Gas, Water & Multiutilities
Gas Distribution
Crude Oil $60.58
Gold for the past 30 days:
USD - 2.02%
CAD - 1.79%
CHF - 1.23%
GBP - 1.28%
EUR - 0.93%
JPY + 1.63%
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades.
Categories include check lists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as
well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders.
Current stock rankings are
based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the
Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1”
and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading
day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less
negative than -20 are overbought.
A column labeled “Weekly %
Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the
past week and the Williams %R. With this systematic way of ranking stocks, the
complete list of stocks for each filter is presented.
One should keep in mind
that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very
well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as
a starting point for further due diligence.
The “Reference” is the date
that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to
the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.
Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed. The “% from Max”
is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since
the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being
listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after
being listed are removed. More information on filters is available on the web
site.
A performance summary of
filtering techniques for check lists and master trader selection methods is
given in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter
|
Avg. % Change Since Listed
|
Avg. % Change Friday
|
Past Month
|
Past Week
|
2 weeks Ago
|
3 Weeks Ago
|
4 Weeks Ago
|
|
Net Insider Buying
|
6.9%
|
0.5%
|
2.0%
|
2.4%
|
0.0%
|
2.2%
|
-2.7%
|
|
Cash Rich Companies
|
16.9%
|
-1.1%
|
17.8%
|
0.7%
|
7.4%
|
4.2%
|
4.0%
|
|
Growth Momentum Stocks
|
8.1%
|
-0.3%
|
4.9%
|
2.6%
|
2.9%
|
1.0%
|
-1.7%
|
|
Lynch Stocks
|
15.2%
|
-0.4%
|
-1.1%
|
1.8%
|
0.0%
|
-0.1%
|
-2.7%
|
|
Buffett Stocks
|
15.0%
|
0.0%
|
5.8%
|
4.7%
|
1.5%
|
0.7%
|
-1.0%
|
|
Graham Stocks
|
7.8%
|
-0.3%
|
-3.2%
|
1.4%
|
1.7%
|
-1.4%
|
-4.8%
|
|
Templeton Stocks
|
4.3%
|
0.2%
|
3.8%
|
2.3%
|
1.3%
|
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
|
Zweig Stocks
|
11.6%
|
-0.5%
|
5.5%
|
4.3%
|
3.1%
|
0.3%
|
-2.2%
|
|
Average
|
10.7%
|
-0.2%
|
4.4%
|
2.5%
|
2.3%
|
0.9%
|
-1.4%
|
Key
|
Passed
Recent Filter
|
|
Price
declined by half of stop loss setting
|
|
Oversold
based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent)
|
|
Overbought
based on Williams %R
(%R2 is most recent)
|
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master
trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious
consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those
that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
PCTY
|
09/16/05
|
21.8%
|
Party City
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-4.8%
|
-1.0%
|
-78
|
-92
|
|
MEAD
|
09/30/05
|
-2.3%
|
Meade
Instruments Corp.
|
Technology
|
Scientific
& Technical Instruments
|
-6.5%
|
-0.8%
|
-60
|
-72
|
|
VSTA
|
10/21/05
|
-9.3%
|
VistaCare,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-11.4%
|
-4.1%
|
-56
|
-71
|
|
MTRX
|
10/14/05
|
5.0%
|
Matrix
Service Company
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-6.0%
|
-2.2%
|
-39
|
-66
|
|
OTL
|
11/04/05
|
0.0%
|
Octel
Corp.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
0.0%
|
-0.7%
|
-47
|
-57
|
|
ISO
|
10/07/05
|
17.9%
|
ISCO
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
-5.7%
|
10.0%
|
-56
|
-50
|
|
IDMI
|
11/04/05
|
0.0%
|
IDM Pharma
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
-5.9%
|
-58
|
-42
|
|
AMIC
|
10/21/05
|
-1.2%
|
American
Independence Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Miscellaneous)
|
-1.4%
|
2.0%
|
-22
|
-39
|
|
TRMA
|
10/28/05
|
5.5%
|
Trico
Marine Services Inc
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
0.0%
|
5.5%
|
-10
|
-35
|
|
REDE
|
09/02/05
|
21.6%
|
RedEnvelope,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Catalog & Mail Order)
|
0.0%
|
12.9%
|
-38
|
-19
|
|
MBRX
|
10/14/05
|
3.0%
|
Metabasis
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-0.5%
|
1.0%
|
-36
|
-16
|
|
BABY
|
10/21/05
|
21.1%
|
Natus
Medical, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
0.0%
|
11.9%
|
-16
|
-14
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.
These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet
additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again
this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
WZEN
|
10/07/05
|
36.5%
|
Webzen
Inc. (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-3.5%
|
0.7%
|
-1
|
-44
|
|
WSC
|
07/01/05
|
-2.4%
|
Wesco
Financial Corporation
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-2.4%
|
0.3%
|
-50
|
-38
|
|
CLCT
|
10/07/05
|
16.6%
|
Collectors
Universe, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-2.9%
|
1.2%
|
-21
|
-31
|
For the screen in
Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3D
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
-2.2%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-6.6%
|
-1.9%
|
-54
|
-85
|
|
BHP
|
09/09/05
|
-2.0%
|
BHP
Billiton Limited (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Metal
Mining
|
-9.6%
|
0.7%
|
-11
|
-63
|
|
BJS
|
11/04/05
|
0.0%
|
BJ
Services Company
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
0.0%
|
-1.1%
|
-18
|
-59
|
|
ET
|
10/21/05
|
4.0%
|
E*TRADE
FINANCIAL Corporation
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
-2.4%
|
2.9%
|
-21
|
-44
|
|
TDY
|
04/29/05
|
14.4%
|
Teledyne
Technologies Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-10.8%
|
-1.4%
|
-48
|
-42
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
24.4%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-2.6%
|
2.3%
|
-37
|
-31
|
|
HCC
|
10/21/05
|
15.9%
|
HCC Insurance
Holdings, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-2.2%
|
6.5%
|
-18
|
-28
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
9.7%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-0.6%
|
1.1%
|
-34
|
-24
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
23.4%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-1.7%
|
3.0%
|
-23
|
-16
|
|
BEN
|
11/04/05
|
0.0%
|
Franklin Resources
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.0%
|
5.2%
|
-30
|
-14
|
|
AMTD
|
10/28/05
|
5.2%
|
Ameritrade
Holding Corp.
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.2%
|
5.2%
|
-12
|
-10
|
|
LM
|
08/12/05
|
4.1%
|
Legg
Mason, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.0%
|
9.2%
|
-10
|
0
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
14.8%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-8.6%
|
-1.3%
|
-76
|
-66
|
|
PKX
|
04/29/05
|
12.9%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-9.9%
|
2.8%
|
-21
|
-49
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
-0.2%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-13.1%
|
0.8%
|
-29
|
-44
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
23.0%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-1.8%
|
1.1%
|
-9
|
-31
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
33.6%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-9.1%
|
2.2%
|
-30
|
-30
|
|
TMX
|
06/03/05
|
11.8%
|
Telefonos
de Mexico, S.A. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-3.6%
|
5.1%
|
-33
|
-13
|
|
BTI
|
08/12/05
|
10.6%
|
British
American Tobacco (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Tobacco
|
0.0%
|
2.1%
|
-8
|
-8
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3F is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3F
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
CECO
|
09/30/05
|
-4.9%
|
Career
Education Corp.
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-6.6%
|
-4.2%
|
-76
|
-85
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
20.7%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
-10.1%
|
-0.8%
|
-69
|
-69
|
|
EASI
|
09/09/05
|
20.5%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-1.6%
|
0.3%
|
-32
|
-54
|
|
ASH
|
10/28/05
|
0.4%
|
Ashland
Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.4%
|
0.4%
|
-32
|
-36
|
|
DHI
|
10/21/05
|
6.8%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.9%
|
11.2%
|
-25
|
-30
|
|
MIK
|
10/14/05
|
6.7%
|
Michaels
Stores, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-0.4%
|
2.3%
|
-24
|
-25
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
27.5%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-1.8%
|
3.8%
|
-16
|
-24
|
|
HDI
|
10/14/05
|
3.6%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-0.5%
|
4.6%
|
-14
|
-20
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
27.9%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
0.0%
|
6.1%
|
-10
|
-16
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
41.3%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-0.5%
|
2.5%
|
-21
|
-16
|
|
FNF
|
10/21/05
|
6.7%
|
Fidelity
National Financial
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-0.7%
|
6.0%
|
-9
|
-12
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
3.0%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-3.1%
|
8.1%
|
-11
|
-12
|
|
RCII
|
10/21/05
|
16.5%
|
Rent-A-Center,
Inc
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
-0.8%
|
6.3%
|
-2
|
-12
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
57.0%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
-0.5%
|
8.9%
|
-4
|
-10
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
5.4%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-3.4%
|
10.2%
|
-10
|
-9
|
|
RI
|
09/02/05
|
5.1%
|
Ruby
Tuesday, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-3.9%
|
5.8%
|
-13
|
-4
|
|
NKE
|
09/23/05
|
8.0%
|
NIKE, Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Footwear
|
0.0%
|
6.0%
|
-3
|
-3
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
18.2%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
6.2%
|
-5
|
-2
|
Stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3G. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
30.3%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-12.2%
|
-1.9%
|
-55
|
-76
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
18.4%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-9.9%
|
-0.6%
|
-51
|
-67
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
-5.4%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-12.1%
|
-0.2%
|
-71
|
-58
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
-2.5%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-6.1%
|
-0.5%
|
-30
|
-49
|
|
UU
|
06/10/05
|
-7.5%
|
United
Utilities PLC (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-9.5%
|
1.3%
|
-3
|
-47
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
25.1%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-7.5%
|
0.8%
|
-2
|
-44
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
-1.9%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-11.2%
|
0.9%
|
-32
|
-41
|
|
NFG
|
04/08/05
|
7.9%
|
National
Fuel Gas Co.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-11.4%
|
2.8%
|
-6
|
-37
|
|
ATG
|
10/21/05
|
8.1%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
4.7%
|
-12
|
-11
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
9.6%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-5.1%
|
4.8%
|
-17
|
-7
|
|
CV
|
10/14/05
|
3.1%
|
Central
Vermont Public Services Corp.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
0.0%
|
3.3%
|
-19
|
0
|
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of
investing are listed in Table 3H.
Table 3H
John Templeton Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
HHS
|
10/28/05
|
-0.2%
|
Harte-Hanks,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Printing
& Publishing
|
-0.7%
|
-0.2%
|
-83
|
-82
|
|
JNJ
|
05/27/05
|
-9.7%
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
Health
Care
|
Major
Drugs
|
-9.7%
|
-3.3%
|
-93
|
-78
|
|
CPS
|
05/27/05
|
3.7%
|
ChoicePoint
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-4.9%
|
-2.2%
|
-45
|
-59
|
|
EASI
|
06/03/05
|
15.5%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-1.6%
|
0.3%
|
-32
|
-54
|
|
SNV
|
05/27/05
|
-6.4%
|
Synovus
Financial Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-8.6%
|
0.6%
|
-24
|
-30
|
|
MTB
|
05/27/05
|
3.8%
|
M&T
Bank Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-4.8%
|
0.3%
|
-27
|
-26
|
|
WSM
|
09/02/05
|
7.4%
|
Williams-Sonoma,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-0.9%
|
9.1%
|
-6
|
-13
|
|
DGX
|
08/19/05
|
-4.6%
|
Quest
Diagnostics Incorporated
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-7.4%
|
2.6%
|
-45
|
-13
|
|
AMSG
|
10/14/05
|
4.3%
|
AmSurg
Corp.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-0.6%
|
0.9%
|
-23
|
-10
|
|
SFG
|
05/27/05
|
26.2%
|
StanCorp
Financial Group, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Life)
|
-0.4%
|
5.2%
|
-5
|
-7
|
|
CAKE
|
10/21/05
|
5.0%
|
The
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
0.0%
|
6.6%
|
-11
|
0
|
|
KRON
|
10/28/05
|
7.1%
|
Kronos
Incorporated
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
0.0%
|
7.1%
|
-2
|
0
|
Optionable stocks from
Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
Martin Zweig Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
CMTL
|
07/01/05
|
17.8%
|
Comtech
Telecomm. Corp.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-9.0%
|
3.3%
|
-54
|
-56
|
|
SUN
|
11/04/05
|
0.0%
|
Sunoco,
Inc.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
0.0%
|
1.1%
|
-5
|
-55
|
|
JUPM
|
08/19/05
|
-2.1%
|
Jupitermedia
Corporation
|
Services
|
Advertising
|
-13.5%
|
-8.1%
|
-60
|
-54
|
|
MCO
|
07/29/05
|
13.0%
|
Moody's
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-1.7%
|
1.0%
|
-49
|
-52
|
|
SFY
|
10/14/05
|
5.7%
|
Swift
Energy Company
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-2.0%
|
0.8%
|
-15
|
-39
|
|
SM
|
10/21/05
|
9.4%
|
St. Mary
Land & Exploration Co.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-2.4%
|
2.2%
|
-13
|
-37
|
|
COP
|
10/28/05
|
4.7%
|
ConocoPhillips
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-2.8%
|
4.7%
|
-5
|
-29
|
|
CRDN
|
08/19/05
|
35.5%
|
Ceradyne,
Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Aerospace
and Defense
|
-2.0%
|
9.2%
|
-24
|
-25
|
|
CAE
|
06/10/05
|
18.8%
|
Cascade
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-1.2%
|
5.2%
|
-11
|
-19
|
|
CTX
|
10/28/05
|
9.1%
|
Centex
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-1.7%
|
9.1%
|
-22
|
-18
|
|
CDIS
|
11/04/05
|
0.1%
|
Cal Dive
International, Inc.
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
0.1%
|
9.8%
|
-3
|
-14
|
|
BEN
|
10/28/05
|
5.2%
|
Franklin Resources
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.0%
|
5.2%
|
-30
|
-14
|
|
EXP
|
10/28/05
|
13.0%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
0.0%
|
13.0%
|
-17
|
-13
|
|
ESI
|
11/04/05
|
0.0%
|
ITT
Educational Services
|
Services
|
Schools
|
0.0%
|
6.8%
|
-6
|
-2
|
|
PKZ
|
07/01/05
|
44.6%
|
HURRICANE
HYDROCARBONS LTD
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
-1.1%
|
0.0%
|
-1
|
-1
|
|
POOL
|
06/10/05
|
11.3%
|
SCP Pool
Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
0.0%
|
6.2%
|
-8
|
-1
|
4.0
Trading Results
This section highlights
performance of options trades. Only a summary is provided here to save space.
Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the
website.
Options Trading
|
Options Trading Estimation Model -
Minimum Suggested Initial Capital is $3,000
|
|
Number of trades in 2005 =
|
67
|
67
|
67
|
(1.5 trades per week)
|
|
Number of contracts per trade =
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
Avg. Premium Cost per trade =
|
$630.57
|
$1,261.13
|
$1,891.70
|
|
|
Total Premiums =
|
$42,248.00
|
$84,496.00
|
$126,744.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit =
|
$3,930.07
|
$7,860.14
|
$11,790.22
|
(9.8%)
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$1,506.16
|
-$1,673.66
|
-$1,841.16
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$660.00
|
-$660.00
|
-$660.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$1,763.91
|
$5,526.48
|
$9,289.06
|
(Avg.
holding period 7.9 days)
|
5.0 Conclusion
Net Growth of Total Capital in
2005
|
Options
Advisory (trading 2 contracts)
Aggressive, 20% of risk capital per trade
Moderate, 15% of risk capital per trade
Conservative, 10% of risk capital per trade
|
+ 89.0%
+ 66.8%
+ 44.5%
|
|
Major Indices Year to Date
11/05/05
|
|
DOW
|
-2.3%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
-0.3%
|
|
S&P500
|
+0.7%
|
|
Russell
2000
|
+1.0%
|
Appendix - Investment Conference
Schedule
Below are links to
conference registration sites where you can sign up.
- 11-10-05 Millbrae, CA "Biotech Investing
Conference" Continuing advances in genomics, proteomics and
enabling technologies makes the Biotech sector a favorite among private
equity investors and venture capitalists. The Biotech Investing Conference
is an industry gathering of the leading private equity investors, venture
capitalists, biotech companies, pharmaceutical companies, corporate
investors and institutional investors.
- 11-27-05 San Francisco, CA "Gold and Precious Metals Conference"
Both
professional and sophisticated private investors meet with the world's
leaders in gold, silver, precious metals, copper and oil and gas
exploration and production. The Natural Resource industry's newest
opportunities are presented, together with educational seminars, executive
panels and investment workshops led by top finance specialists, economic analysts
and newsletter editors. Admission is complimentary with pre-registration.
- 01-30-06 Miami, Florida "IIR’s 19th Annual
Private Placements Industry Forum" is the pre-eminent gathering for the latest developments in
originating, buying and structuring private debt placements. Join us in
sunny Miami, Florida in January as the industry’s leading decision makers
discuss new market trends, including: project finance, cross border deals
and the impact of pre-designated investor counsel. Plus, enjoy over 6 hours of networking opportunities including our two hour Rooftop Dessert and Cordial Suite. Don’t delay, register for
the Institute for International
Research's 19th Annual Private Placements Industry Forum today!.
- 02-07-06 Cape Town, South Africa "Investing in African
Mining Conference" Africa's most important
mining event and the world's leading gathering of global policy makers and
international finance, the Mining INDABA has raised billions of dollars
and introduced the international investment community to mining interests
throughout Africa. The Mining Indaba has become an institution
throughout Africa, attracting over 2,000 delegates from fifty countries
and hosting over 100 exhibitors.
Conference Search
