______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 52 – November 14, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
Continuing with background
work on a value stock filter, this week we seek a correlation between an
absolute price to book (PB) value of 1 needed to minimize the probability of
loss and a ratio of PB to industry PB that produced a similar result.
1.1 Ratio of PB to Industry PB
As mentioned last week,
absolute measures of a stock’s value indicator do not take industry averages
into account. The PB ratio is no exception. Yahoo-Finance at http://biz.yahoo.com/p/sum_prid.html
shows that industry PB values range from a negative 107 for House-wares and
Accessories to a positive 159 for the Soft-drink industry. The lowest positive
industry value is 1.38 for Major Auto Manufacturers.
We found earlier that,
based on 1 year data ending in September 2005 (Figure 1), a price to book ratio
of less than 1 had the lowest probability of loss. For data ending in October
2005 (Figure 2), that correlates with a ratio of PB to industry PB of 0.5 to
0.75. The October data involved a greater overall percentage market decline
compared to the September data. PB results are similar to those for price to
earnings, as shown in the third column of Table 1.
Table 1
Valuation Metrics
to Minimize the Probability of Loss
|
Valuation Metric
|
Stock Value That Reduced
Risk of Loss
|
Corresponding Ratio
of Stock Value to Industry Value
|
|
Price to Earnings (PE)
|
10 to 15
|
0.5 to 0.75
|
|
Price to Book (PB)
|
< 1
|
0.5 to 0.75
|
|
Price to Sales (PS)
|
< 0.5
|
?
|
|
Return on Equity (ROE)
|
10 to 20
|
?
|
|
Price to Free Cash Flow (P-FCF)
|
< 5
|
?
|
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web
site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
FIGURE 1
FIGURE 2
We will continue to
correlate absolute valuation metrics with ratios to their industry values to
complete Table 1. Then we can use the filter of Table 1 to begin tracking some
value stocks.
2.0 Market Analysis
Slightly bullish sentiment
led to the third straight weekly gain for the S&P500 index. It was mostly
a quite week with lower unemployment claims, a lower trade deficit and lower
energy prices. Next week things will pick up with inflation data, retail sales
data and housing start data.
Key industry ETF’s in Table
2A are Biotech and Semiconductors which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation
confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking
and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Real
Estate are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency and the
capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A
Indices, Key Industry
ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month
|
1 wk ago
|
2 wks ago
|
3 wks ago
|
4 wks ago
|
|
Dow Jones Industrials
|
3.9%
|
1.5%
|
1.2%
|
1.8%
|
-0.7%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
6.7%
|
1.5%
|
3.8%
|
0.4%
|
0.8%
|
|
S & P 500
|
4.1%
|
1.2%
|
1.8%
|
1.6%
|
-0.6%
|
|
Russell 2000
|
5.3%
|
1.3%
|
3.6%
|
0.4%
|
-0.1%
|
|
GLD, Gold
|
0.0%
|
2.8%
|
-3.6%
|
1.5%
|
-0.6%
|
|
RKH, Banking
|
9.1%
|
3.7%
|
0.4%
|
2.6%
|
2.0%
|
|
IYT, Transportation
|
12.4%
|
3.8%
|
5.4%
|
3.0%
|
-0.3%
|
|
SMH, Semiconductors
|
4.4%
|
2.0%
|
5.9%
|
-4.1%
|
0.8%
|
|
BBH, Biotechnology
|
10.3%
|
2.3%
|
6.0%
|
2.6%
|
-0.8%
|
|
IYR, Real Estate
|
5.7%
|
4.4%
|
-1.2%
|
2.5%
|
-0.1%
|
|
OIH, Oil
|
2.1%
|
-4.7%
|
3.2%
|
6.5%
|
-2.5%
|
|
XLE,
Energy
|
-1.8%
|
-4.1%
|
2.5%
|
4.9%
|
-4.8%
|
|
XLU,
Utilities
|
-0.7%
|
-0.8%
|
-0.5%
|
2.3%
|
-1.7%
|
|
XLB,
Materials
|
8.7%
|
2.7%
|
1.3%
|
3.6%
|
0.8%
|
|
XLI,
Industrial
|
3.0%
|
1.5%
|
1.5%
|
1.2%
|
-1.1%
|
|
XLK,
Technology
|
5.7%
|
1.2%
|
3.4%
|
0.2%
|
0.8%
|
|
XLV,
Healthcare
|
0.9%
|
1.4%
|
1.3%
|
0.1%
|
-1.9%
|
|
XLF,
Financials
|
8.7%
|
3.2%
|
1.1%
|
3.2%
|
1.0%
|
|
XLP, Consumer
Staples
|
3.3%
|
1.4%
|
0.4%
|
0.9%
|
0.5%
|
|
XLY,
Consumer Discretionary
|
5.2%
|
1.4%
|
3.9%
|
0.1%
|
-0.4%
|
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades.
Categories include check lists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as
well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders.
Current stock rankings are
based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the
Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1”
and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading
day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less
negative than -20 are overbought.
A column labeled “Weekly %
Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the
past week and the Williams %R.
One should keep in mind
that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very
well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as
a starting point for further due diligence.
The “Reference” is the date
that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to
the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.
Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed. The “% from Max”
is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since
the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being
listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after
being listed are removed. More information on filters is available on the web
site.
A performance summary of
filtering techniques for check lists and master trader selection methods is
given in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter
|
Avg. % Change Since Listed
|
Avg. % Change Friday
|
Past Month
|
Past Week
|
2 weeks Ago
|
3 Weeks Ago
|
4 Weeks Ago
|
|
Net Insider Buying
|
9.6%
|
0.6%
|
7.5%
|
1.8%
|
2.4%
|
0.3%
|
2.7%
|
|
Cash Rich Companies
|
26.2%
|
1.0%
|
19.3%
|
7.0%
|
0.5%
|
7.2%
|
2.9%
|
|
Growth Momentum Stocks
|
8.9%
|
0.4%
|
7.9%
|
1.6%
|
2.7%
|
2.5%
|
0.8%
|
|
Lynch Stocks
|
16.7%
|
0.5%
|
3.0%
|
1.3%
|
1.8%
|
0.0%
|
-0.1%
|
|
Buffett Stocks
|
16.8%
|
0.6%
|
8.6%
|
1.5%
|
4.7%
|
1.5%
|
0.7%
|
|
Graham Stocks
|
7.3%
|
-0.2%
|
1.2%
|
-0.1%
|
1.1%
|
1.7%
|
-1.5%
|
|
Templeton Stocks
|
5.6%
|
0.0%
|
5.0%
|
1.2%
|
2.3%
|
1.3%
|
0.1%
|
|
Zweig Stocks
|
10.6%
|
1.1%
|
9.2%
|
1.0%
|
5.4%
|
2.7%
|
-0.2%
|
|
Average
|
12.7%
|
0.5%
|
7.7%
|
1.9%
|
2.6%
|
2.2%
|
0.7%
|
Key
|
Passed
Recent Filter
|
|
Price
declined by half of stop loss setting
|
|
Oversold
based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent)
|
|
Overbought
based on Williams %R
(%R2 is most recent)
|
Companies that have experienced
net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are
listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader
screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious
consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those
that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
TRMA
|
10/28/05
|
1.5%
|
Trico
Marine Services Inc
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
-4.5%
|
-3.8%
|
-70
|
-89
|
|
IDMI
|
11/04/05
|
-8.3%
|
IDM Pharma
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-8.3%
|
-8.3%
|
-83
|
-70
|
|
MEAD
|
09/30/05
|
-4.5%
|
Meade
Instruments Corp.
|
Technology
|
Scientific
& Technical Instruments
|
-8.6%
|
-2.3%
|
-34
|
-59
|
|
BABY
|
10/21/05
|
17.6%
|
Natus
Medical, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-2.9%
|
-2.9%
|
-35
|
-56
|
|
MTRX
|
10/14/05
|
-1.6%
|
Matrix
Service Company
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-11.9%
|
-6.3%
|
-80
|
-55
|
|
ISO
|
10/07/05
|
21.4%
|
ISCO
International, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
-2.9%
|
3.0%
|
-38
|
-38
|
|
REDE
|
09/02/05
|
23.7%
|
RedEnvelope,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Catalog & Mail Order)
|
-0.3%
|
1.7%
|
-16
|
-19
|
|
VSTA
|
10/21/05
|
-2.9%
|
VistaCare,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-5.1%
|
7.1%
|
-26
|
-13
|
|
PCTY
|
09/16/05
|
27.3%
|
Party City
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-0.5%
|
4.5%
|
-10
|
-10
|
|
MBRX
|
10/14/05
|
15.0%
|
Metabasis
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
0.0%
|
11.6%
|
0
|
-8
|
|
OTL
|
11/04/05
|
16.1%
|
Octel
Corp.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
0.0%
|
16.1%
|
-6
|
-3
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.
These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet
additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again
this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
WZEN
|
10/07/05
|
52.3%
|
Webzen
Inc. (ADR)
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
11.5%
|
-2
|
-4
|
|
WSC
|
07/01/05
|
0.1%
|
Wesco
Financial Corporation
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
0.0%
|
2.5%
|
0
|
0
|
For the screen in
Table 3D, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3D
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
21.0%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-3.6%
|
-1.9%
|
-30
|
-85
|
|
BJS
|
11/04/05
|
-4.1%
|
BJ Services
Company
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
-4.1%
|
-4.1%
|
-89
|
-74
|
|
TDY
|
04/29/05
|
11.4%
|
Teledyne
Technologies Incorporated
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-13.1%
|
-2.6%
|
-68
|
-50
|
|
BHP
|
09/09/05
|
-0.4%
|
BHP
Billiton Limited (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Metal
Mining
|
-8.2%
|
1.6%
|
-80
|
-43
|
|
VTIV
|
11/11/05
|
0.0%
|
Ventiv
Health, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
0.0%
|
2.9%
|
-26
|
-42
|
|
ET
|
10/21/05
|
8.1%
|
E*TRADE
FINANCIAL Corporation
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
-0.4%
|
3.9%
|
-1
|
-28
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
1.0%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
-3.5%
|
3.3%
|
-16
|
-13
|
|
AMTD
|
10/28/05
|
8.7%
|
Ameritrade
Holding Corp.
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.0%
|
3.3%
|
-1
|
-11
|
|
LM
|
08/12/05
|
6.5%
|
Legg
Mason, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.0%
|
2.3%
|
-8
|
-10
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
27.9%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
0.0%
|
2.8%
|
-13
|
-9
|
|
HCC
|
10/21/05
|
20.2%
|
HCC
Insurance Holdings, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-0.5%
|
3.8%
|
-2
|
-9
|
|
BEN
|
11/04/05
|
4.2%
|
Franklin Resources
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.0%
|
4.2%
|
-1
|
0
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
10.8%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
0.0%
|
1.0%
|
-29
|
0
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
12.3%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-10.5%
|
-2.1%
|
-79
|
-88
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
21.4%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-3.1%
|
-1.3%
|
-84
|
-81
|
|
PKX
|
04/29/05
|
15.9%
|
POSCO
(ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-7.6%
|
2.6%
|
-37
|
-28
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
1.1%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-11.9%
|
1.3%
|
-41
|
-26
|
|
TMX
|
06/03/05
|
13.2%
|
Telefonos
de Mexico, S.A. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-2.5%
|
1.2%
|
-11
|
-20
|
|
BTI
|
08/12/05
|
14.4%
|
British
American Tobacco (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Tobacco
|
0.0%
|
3.4%
|
-8
|
-7
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
38.7%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-5.7%
|
3.8%
|
-1
|
-3
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3F is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3F
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
15.7%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
-2.1%
|
-2.1%
|
-21
|
-68
|
|
DHI
|
10/21/05
|
5.0%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-3.5%
|
-1.7%
|
-49
|
-50
|
|
ASH
|
10/28/05
|
1.3%
|
Ashland
Inc.
|
Capital Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-0.7%
|
0.9%
|
-42
|
-41
|
|
EASI
|
09/09/05
|
20.9%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-1.3%
|
0.3%
|
-20
|
-41
|
|
CECO
|
09/30/05
|
0.0%
|
Career
Education Corp.
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-1.7%
|
5.2%
|
-30
|
-40
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
23.0%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
-8.4%
|
1.9%
|
-62
|
-34
|
|
RCII
|
10/21/05
|
17.8%
|
Rent-A-Center,
Inc
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
-1.1%
|
1.1%
|
-34
|
-27
|
|
NKE
|
09/23/05
|
7.0%
|
NIKE, Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Footwear
|
-1.2%
|
-1.0%
|
-15
|
-27
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
3.9%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-4.9%
|
-1.5%
|
-24
|
-23
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
43.7%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-0.9%
|
1.6%
|
-2
|
-21
|
|
FNF
|
10/21/05
|
7.2%
|
Fidelity
National Financial
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-0.9%
|
0.5%
|
-32
|
-18
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
4.3%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-1.9%
|
1.2%
|
-5
|
-17
|
|
MIK
|
10/14/05
|
10.0%
|
Michaels
Stores, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
3.1%
|
-8
|
-11
|
|
RI
|
09/02/05
|
6.0%
|
Ruby
Tuesday, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-3.1%
|
0.8%
|
-8
|
-7
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
60.3%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
0.0%
|
2.1%
|
-14
|
-7
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
35.1%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
0.0%
|
5.7%
|
-9
|
-2
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
32.9%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
0.0%
|
4.2%
|
-18
|
-2
|
|
HDI
|
10/14/05
|
8.5%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
0.0%
|
4.7%
|
-1
|
0
|
Stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3G. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
21.4%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-10.3%
|
-2.9%
|
-92
|
-90
|
|
OKE
|
11/11/05
|
0.0%
|
ONEOK,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
-4.8%
|
-88
|
-82
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
-2.6%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-11.9%
|
-0.8%
|
-64
|
-61
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
19.6%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-9.0%
|
1.0%
|
-40
|
-61
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
7.9%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-6.7%
|
-1.6%
|
-24
|
-49
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
32.2%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric Utilities
|
-10.9%
|
1.4%
|
-88
|
-49
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
-4.7%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-11.5%
|
0.7%
|
-34
|
-36
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
-1.2%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-4.9%
|
1.4%
|
-14
|
-29
|
|
ATG
|
10/21/05
|
9.0%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-0.8%
|
0.8%
|
-12
|
-28
|
|
CV
|
10/14/05
|
4.5%
|
Central
Vermont Public Services Corp.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-1.0%
|
1.3%
|
-1
|
-19
|
|
UU
|
06/10/05
|
-5.4%
|
United
Utilities PLC (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-7.5%
|
2.3%
|
-23
|
-10
|
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of
investing are listed in Table 3H.
Table 3H
John Templeton Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
JNJ
|
05/27/05
|
-9.7%
|
Johnson
& Johnson
|
Health
Care
|
Major
Drugs
|
-9.7%
|
0.1%
|
-53
|
-66
|
|
CAKE
|
10/21/05
|
2.7%
|
The
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-2.5%
|
-2.1%
|
-35
|
-53
|
|
KRON
|
10/28/05
|
4.9%
|
Kronos
Incorporated
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
-2.4%
|
-2.1%
|
-32
|
-42
|
|
CPS
|
05/27/05
|
4.7%
|
ChoicePoint
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-4.0%
|
0.9%
|
-62
|
-42
|
|
EASI
|
06/03/05
|
15.9%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-1.3%
|
0.3%
|
-20
|
-41
|
|
WSM
|
09/02/05
|
7.4%
|
Williams-Sonoma,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-1.5%
|
0.0%
|
-9
|
-25
|
|
AMSG
|
10/14/05
|
5.3%
|
AmSurg
Corp.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-0.5%
|
1.0%
|
-11
|
-23
|
|
SFG
|
05/27/05
|
30.0%
|
StanCorp
Financial Group, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Life)
|
-0.5%
|
3.0%
|
-3
|
-12
|
|
DGX
|
08/19/05
|
-1.5%
|
Quest
Diagnostics Incorporated
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-4.4%
|
3.2%
|
-5
|
-10
|
|
SNV
|
05/27/05
|
-3.4%
|
Synovus
Financial Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-5.6%
|
3.3%
|
-2
|
-6
|
|
MTB
|
05/27/05
|
7.5%
|
M&T
Bank Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-1.3%
|
3.6%
|
-2
|
-3
|
|
HHS
|
10/28/05
|
3.5%
|
Harte-Hanks,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Printing
& Publishing
|
0.0%
|
3.7%
|
-17
|
-3
|
Optionable stocks from
Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
Martin Zweig Watch List
Ranked According to the Most
Oversold Using the Williams %R
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
COP
|
10/28/05
|
0.4%
|
ConocoPhillips
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-6.9%
|
-4.2%
|
-61
|
-83
|
|
SM
|
10/21/05
|
5.2%
|
St. Mary
Land & Exploration Co.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-6.1%
|
-3.8%
|
-74
|
-81
|
|
CDIS
|
11/04/05
|
-5.0%
|
Cal Dive
International, Inc.
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
-5.2%
|
-5.0%
|
-50
|
-63
|
|
SUN
|
11/04/05
|
0.7%
|
Sunoco,
Inc.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-0.8%
|
0.7%
|
-78
|
-58
|
|
EXP
|
10/28/05
|
7.0%
|
Eagle
Materials, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
- Raw Materials
|
-5.3%
|
-5.3%
|
-50
|
-58
|
|
SFY
|
10/14/05
|
3.6%
|
Swift
Energy Company
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-3.9%
|
-2.0%
|
-83
|
-44
|
|
CTX
|
10/28/05
|
8.9%
|
Centex
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-2.8%
|
-0.2%
|
-23
|
-30
|
|
CMTL
|
07/01/05
|
21.6%
|
Comtech
Telecomm. Corp.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-6.0%
|
3.3%
|
-16
|
-20
|
|
CAE
|
06/10/05
|
21.5%
|
Cascade
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-0.1%
|
2.2%
|
-4
|
-16
|
|
MCO
|
07/29/05
|
18.1%
|
Moody's
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-0.2%
|
4.6%
|
-11
|
-13
|
|
ZIGO
|
11/11/05
|
0.0%
|
Zygo Corporation
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
0.0%
|
3.7%
|
-5
|
-10
|
|
CRDN
|
08/19/05
|
46.7%
|
Ceradyne,
Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Aerospace
and Defense
|
0.0%
|
8.3%
|
-5
|
-7
|
|
ESI
|
11/04/05
|
5.2%
|
ITT
Educational Services
|
Services
|
Schools
|
0.0%
|
5.2%
|
-4
|
-2
|
|
POOL
|
06/10/05
|
15.2%
|
SCP Pool
Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
0.0%
|
3.5%
|
-5
|
-2
|
|
BEN
|
10/28/05
|
9.7%
|
Franklin Resources
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.0%
|
4.2%
|
-1
|
0
|
4.0
Trading Results
This section highlights
performance of options trades. Only a summary is provided here to save space.
Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the
website.
Options Trading
|
Options Trading Estimation Model -
Minimum Suggested Initial Capital is $3,000
|
|
Number of trades in 2005 =
|
67
|
67
|
67
|
(1.5 trades per week)
|
|
Number of contracts per trade =
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
|
|
Avg. Premium Cost per trade =
|
$630.57
|
$1,261.13
|
$1,891.70
|
|
|
Total Premiums =
|
$42,248.00
|
$84,496.00
|
$126,744.00
|
|
|
Gross Profit =
|
$3,930.07
|
$7,860.14
|
$11,790.22
|
(9.8%)
|
|
Broker Commission (Etrade) =
|
-$1,506.16
|
-$1,673.66
|
-$1,841.16
|
|
|
Subscription Cost to date =
|
-$660.00
|
-$660.00
|
-$660.00
|
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses =
|
$1,763.91
|
$5,526.48
|
$9,289.06
|
(Avg.
holding period 7.9 days)
|
5.0 Conclusion
Net Growth of Total Capital in
2005
|
Options
Advisory (trading 2 contracts)
Aggressive, 20% of risk capital per trade
Moderate, 15% of risk capital per trade
Conservative, 10% of risk capital per trade
|
+ 89.0%
+ 66.8%
+ 44.5%
|
|
Major Indices Year to Date
11/12/05
|
|
DOW
|
-0.9%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
+1.2%
|
|
S&P500
|
+1.9%
|
|
Russell
2000
|
+2.3%
|
Appendix - Investment Conference
Schedule
Below are links to
conference registration sites where you can sign up.
- 11-27-05 San Francisco, CA "Gold and Precious Metals Conference"
Both
professional and sophisticated private investors meet with the world's
leaders in gold, silver, precious metals, copper and oil and gas
exploration and production. The Natural Resource industry's newest
opportunities are presented, together with educational seminars, executive
panels and investment workshops led by top finance specialists, economic
analysts and newsletter editors. Admission is complimentary with pre-registration.
- 01-30-06 Miami, Florida "IIR’s 19th Annual
Private Placements Industry Forum" is the pre-eminent gathering for the latest developments in
originating, buying and structuring private debt placements. Join us in
sunny Miami, Florida in January as the industry’s leading decision makers
discuss new market trends, including: project finance, cross border deals
and the impact of pre-designated investor counsel. Plus, enjoy over 6 hours of networking opportunities including our two hour Rooftop Dessert and Cordial Suite. Don’t delay, register for
the Institute for International
Research's 19th Annual Private Placements Industry Forum today!
- 02-07-06 Cape Town, South Africa "Investing in African
Mining Conference" Africa's most important
mining event and the world's leading gathering of global policy makers and
international finance, the Mining INDABA has raised billions of dollars
and introduced the international investment community to mining interests
throughout Africa. The Mining Indaba has become an institution
throughout Africa, attracting over 2,000 delegates from fifty countries
and hosting over 100 exhibitors.
Conference Search
