______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 58 – December 26, 2005
Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0
Trading
There is much wisdom in
keeping an eye on the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) for the S&P 500
Index. Its behavior for the most recent month can have a strong impact on
stock gains over the previous year.
1.1 S&P 500 200 day SMA
Table 1 lists the
performance of the S&P 500 over four one year periods along with the
performance of four stock filters we have been studying for the past few
months. The filters are described on the website. Under most 1
year conditions analyzed so far, the filters performed favorably. For those
cases the S&P 500 had gained about 8% or so over the prior year. A case
where the S&P gained 8% over the prior year and the filters did not do so
well was when the average value for the index dipped close to or fell below its
mean 200 day SMA as it did in April and October of 2004. The fact that one
prior month of S&P 500 performance can skew the performance of an entire
previous year is seen by comparing each filter’s one year performance at
consecutive one month intervals.
Table 1
Filter Performance
versus the S&P 500 Index
Using No Trailing
Stop
|
Year Ending
|
Prior Year S&P 500
|
Prior Month Avg. S&P 500 Relative
to Mean 200 Day SMA
|
Growth $15-$40 Filter
|
Growth >$40 Filter
|
Absolute Value Filter
|
Relative Value Filter
|
|
9/02/05
|
9.4%
|
+2.5%
|
60.1%
|
40.7%
|
19.3%
|
50%
|
|
9/30/05
|
8.6%
|
+2.3%
|
25.4%
|
61.4%
|
12.3%
|
24.1
|
|
11/04/05
|
8.0%
|
-0.6%
|
8.2%
|
14.8%
|
4.4%
|
-0.6%
|
|
12/02/05
|
6.2%
|
+2.9%
|
24.6%
|
9.6%
|
17.0%
|
34.7%
|
© 2005 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed
brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations
made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web
site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice.
While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be
made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all
information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation
with trading system companies.
The message is clear that
stop loss settings need to be narrowed when the S&P 500 begins to dip below
its 200 day SMA, a psychological support level that is tracked by individual
investors and institution investors alike.
Each week a detailed look
is taken on the effects of stop loss settings for one of the filters over the
past one year period. The table below looks at the industry relative value
filter over the year ending December 2, 2005. In this case, as in many others,
no stop loss setting would have improved results.
Table 2
Effect of Trailing
Stop on Industry Relative Value Filter
December ’04 to
December ‘05
|
Stop Loss Setting (%)
|
Avg. Gain reached Using Stop
|
Month that stop was triggered
|
Percent stopped out
|
Percent that Gained
|
|
10
|
12.6%
|
5.6
|
71.4%
|
71.4%
|
|
15
|
15.6%
|
4.0
|
42.9%
|
71.4%
|
|
20
|
24.3%
|
6.0
|
28.6%
|
85.7%
|
|
25
|
27.4%
|
3.0
|
14.3%
|
85.7%
|
|
30
|
34.7%
|
none
|
0.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
35
|
34.7%
|
none
|
0.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
40
|
34.7%
|
none
|
0.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
50
|
34.7%
|
none
|
0.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
60
|
34.7%
|
none
|
0.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
70
|
34.7%
|
none
|
0.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
80
|
34.7%
|
none
|
0.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
90
|
34.7%
|
none
|
0.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
100
|
34.7%
|
none
|
0.0%
|
100.0%
|
As these studies continue,
more S&P 500 data points will be compared to growth and value filter
performance data points and a comprehensive picture can be developed that has
statistical significance. While it must be remembered that past results are no
guarantee of future performance, the fact that the data are just 1 year old
lends some degree of validity to judging recent trends in market sentiment and
gives a degree of confidence on how these filters have performed in the recent
past.
2.0 Market Analysis
Major indices continued
their sideways movement for the fourth week. This consolidation appears to be concern
about the sell off with reduced volume that occurred a year ago last January. The
VIX and VXN remained below their 20 day simple moving averages.
Key industry ETF’s in Table
2A are Biotech and Semiconductors which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation
confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking
and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Real
Estate are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency
(inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A
Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month
|
1 wk ago
|
2 wks ago
|
3 wks ago
|
4 wks ago
|
|
Dow Jones Industrials
|
-0.4%
|
0.1%
|
0.9%
|
-0.9%
|
-0.5%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
-0.6%
|
-0.1%
|
-0.2%
|
-0.7%
|
0.5%
|
|
S & P 500
|
0.0%
|
0.1%
|
0.6%
|
-0.5%
|
-0.2%
|
|
Russell 2000
|
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
-0.8%
|
-0.3%
|
1.0%
|
|
GLD, GOLD
|
1.4%
|
0.1%
|
-4.4%
|
4.1%
|
1.8%
|
|
RKH, Banking
|
-0.2%
|
0.0%
|
1.5%
|
-0.5%
|
-1.2%
|
|
IYT, Transportation
|
1.9%
|
2.7%
|
1.0%
|
-0.9%
|
-0.9%
|
|
SMH, Semiconductors
|
1.0%
|
-0.6%
|
0.3%
|
-2.5%
|
3.9%
|
|
BBH, Biotechnology
|
-2.0%
|
2.3%
|
-1.5%
|
-2.3%
|
-0.4%
|
|
IYR, Real Estate
|
-1.7%
|
-1.1%
|
0.6%
|
-0.7%
|
-0.5%
|
|
OIH, Oil
|
3.9%
|
1.4%
|
-2.3%
|
3.3%
|
1.6%
|
|
XLE, Energy
|
0.5%
|
0.4%
|
-1.4%
|
1.3%
|
0.3%
|
|
XLU,
Utilities
|
0.3%
|
-1.5%
|
1.0%
|
1.4%
|
-0.6%
|
|
XLB,
Materials
|
2.8%
|
2.4%
|
-1.4%
|
0.3%
|
1.4%
|
|
XLI,
Industrial
|
0.7%
|
0.5%
|
0.7%
|
-0.8%
|
0.3%
|
|
XLK,
Technology
|
-2.2%
|
-0.8%
|
-1.1%
|
-0.9%
|
0.7%
|
|
XLV,
Healthcare
|
3.3%
|
1.9%
|
1.6%
|
0.1%
|
-0.3%
|
|
XLF,
Financials
|
-0.8%
|
0.7%
|
0.3%
|
-0.7%
|
-1.0%
|
|
XLP,
Consumer Staples
|
-0.1%
|
-0.5%
|
1.9%
|
-0.7%
|
-0.7%
|
|
XLY,
Consumer Discretionary
|
-1.8%
|
-1.0%
|
0.1%
|
-0.7%
|
-0.3%
|
Major Indices
For the Past Week:
Dow Jones +0.1%
NASDAQ -0.1%
S&P500 Index +0.1%
Russell 2000 +0.5%
30 Year Bond 4.551%
10 Year Note 4.380%
Leading Industries
For the Past Week:
Consumer Electronics
Aluminum
Railroads
Full Line Insurance
Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
Nonferrous Metals
Industrial Transportation
Gambling
Gold Mining
Lagging Industries
For the Past Week:
Automobiles
Automobiles & Parts
Food Retailers & Wholesalers
Home Improvement Retailers
Home Construction
Business Training & Employment
Platinum & Precious Metals
Mobile Telecommunications
Food & Drug Retailers
Travel & Tourism
Leading Industries
For the Past Month:
Nonferrous Metals
Gold Mining
Aluminum
Distillers & Vintners
Paper
Industrial Metals
Basic Resources
Mining
General Mining
Airlines
Lagging Industries
For the Past Month:
Automobiles
Toys
Specialized Consumer Services
Automobiles & Parts
Reinsurance
Integrated Oil & Gas
Mobile Telecommunications
Computer Services
Transportation Services
Trucking
Crude Oil $58.43
Gold for the past 30 days:
USD +1.97%
CAD +1.51%
CHF +1.77%
GBP +1.26%
EUR +1.28%
JPY -0.34%
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain
stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades.
Categories include check lists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as
well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders.
Current stock rankings are
based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 10-period
Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1”
and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading
day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less
negative than -20 are overbought.
A column labeled “Weekly %
Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the
past week and the Williams %R.
One should keep in mind
that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very
well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as
a starting point for further due diligence.
The “Reference” is the date
that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to
the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.
Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of
about two months. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined
from the maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down
8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are
down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months. More
information on filters is available on the web site.
A performance summary of
filtering techniques for check lists and master trader selection methods is
given in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter
|
Avg. % Change Since Listed
|
Avg. % Change Friday
|
1 Month
|
1 Week Ago
|
2 weeks Ago
|
3 Weeks Ago
|
4 Weeks Ago
|
|
Net Insider Buying
|
1.7%
|
0.2%
|
1.1%
|
0.5%
|
-1.1%
|
1.5%
|
0.4%
|
|
Cash Rich Companies
|
3.3%
|
-0.1%
|
5.2%
|
3.2%
|
1.0%
|
-0.1%
|
1.2%
|
|
Price to Free Cash Flow
|
0.6%
|
-0.7%
|
-2.3%
|
-1.3%
|
-1.0%
|
-1.7%
|
1.7%
|
|
Growth Momentum Stocks
|
8.0%
|
0.5%
|
2.6%
|
0.9%
|
-0.7%
|
1.2%
|
1.1%
|
|
Lynch Stocks
|
25.3%
|
0.6%
|
4.1%
|
1.4%
|
2.7%
|
-1.8%
|
1.8%
|
|
Buffett Stocks
|
18.5%
|
0.7%
|
0.5%
|
0.9%
|
0.0%
|
-1.0%
|
0.6%
|
|
Graham Stocks
|
11.3%
|
0.2%
|
1.3%
|
-1.6%
|
2.1%
|
0.1%
|
0.8%
|
|
Templeton Stocks
|
6.2%
|
0.2%
|
-0.5%
|
-0.9%
|
-0.1%
|
0.1%
|
0.4%
|
|
Zweig Stocks
|
15.9%
|
-0.5%
|
2.2%
|
-0.7%
|
0.8%
|
2.1%
|
0.2%
|
|
Average Long Stocks
|
10.1%
|
0.1%
|
1.6%
|
0.3%
|
0.4%
|
0.0%
|
0.9%
|
Key
|
Passed
Recent Filter
|
|
Price
declined by half of stop loss setting
|
|
Oversold
based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent)
|
|
Overbought
based on Williams %R
(%R2 is most recent)
|
Companies that have
experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued
stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master
trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious
consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those
that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
ULBI
|
12/02/05
|
-4.6%
|
Ultralife
Batteries, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Electronic
Instruments & Controls
|
-7.4%
|
-4.9%
|
-75
|
-99
|
|
RGN
|
12/16/05
|
0.9%
|
RegeneRx
Biopharmaceut.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.7%
|
0.9%
|
-90
|
-90
|
|
VSTA
|
10/21/05
|
-4.7%
|
VistaCare,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-13.1%
|
-6.1%
|
-79
|
-87
|
|
HEM
|
12/16/05
|
-9.4%
|
Hemosense,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-9.4%
|
-9.4%
|
-84
|
-84
|
|
SNSS
|
12/16/05
|
-0.4%
|
Sunesis
Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Major
Drugs
|
-5.0%
|
-0.4%
|
-75
|
-75
|
|
MMLP
|
11/25/05
|
0.0%
|
Martin
Midstream Partners L.P.
|
Transportation
|
Water
Transportation
|
-5.0%
|
-0.3%
|
-96
|
-75
|
|
TRMA
|
10/28/05
|
2.0%
|
Trico
Marine Services Inc
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
-5.0%
|
-3.8%
|
-94
|
-70
|
|
MEAD
|
12/23/05
|
0.0%
|
Meade
Instruments Corp.
|
Technology
|
Scientific
& Technical Instruments
|
0.0%
|
6.9%
|
-40
|
-66
|
|
MBRX
|
10/14/05
|
22.8%
|
Metabasis
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-8.2%
|
-7.8%
|
-71
|
-61
|
|
CLRT
|
11/18/05
|
-2.4%
|
Clarient,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Scientific
& Technical Instruments
|
-14.9%
|
-7.0%
|
-60
|
-60
|
|
BDOG
|
12/16/05
|
-1.9%
|
Big Dog
Holdings, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
-2.4%
|
-1.9%
|
-53
|
-53
|
|
MTRX
|
10/14/05
|
3.8%
|
Matrix
Service Company
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-7.1%
|
-1.3%
|
-33
|
-42
|
|
CWEI
|
12/09/05
|
0.0%
|
Clayton
Williams Energy, Inc.
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-2.7%
|
0.0%
|
-40
|
-40
|
|
RNAI
|
12/09/05
|
-3.0%
|
Sirna
Therapeutics, Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-3.8%
|
1.9%
|
-39
|
-39
|
|
XGEN
|
11/25/05
|
0.0%
|
Xenogen
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Scientific
& Technical Instruments
|
0.0%
|
9.2%
|
-30
|
-38
|
|
HTRN
|
12/23/05
|
0.0%
|
HealthTronics
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
0.0%
|
3.3%
|
-16
|
-17
|
|
CRYO
|
11/25/05
|
0.0%
|
CryoCor,
Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Medical
Equipment & Supplies
|
-1.9%
|
0.5%
|
-17
|
-17
|
|
PCTY
|
09/16/05
|
29.6%
|
Party City
Corporation
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-0.7%
|
1.2%
|
-21
|
-17
|
|
LXU
|
12/23/05
|
0.0%
|
LSB
Industries, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
0.0%
|
28.3%
|
0
|
0
|
Companies with net cash
positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.
These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet
additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again
this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
HIH
|
12/23/05
|
0.0%
|
Highland
Hospitality Corporation
|
Services
|
Hotels
& Motels
|
0.0%
|
0.8%
|
-11
|
-16
|
|
WSC
|
07/01/05
|
6.6%
|
Wesco
Financial Corporation
|
Conglomerates
|
Conglomerates
|
-0.1%
|
5.6%
|
-2
|
-7
|
Table 3D was added to
contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5. Companies
having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of
all their outstanding shares of stock.
Table 3D
Price to Free Cash Flow Companies
Check List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
F
|
11/11/05
|
-0.9%
|
FORD MOTOR
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-7.4%
|
-4.8%
|
-92
|
-100
|
|
PCW
|
11/11/05
|
-1.0%
|
PCCW Ltd.
(ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-6.5%
|
-0.7%
|
-23
|
-61
|
|
PBR
|
11/25/05
|
3.7%
|
Petroleo
Brasileiro S.A. (ADR)
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas - Integrated
|
-4.4%
|
1.4%
|
-45
|
-34
|
For the Peter Lynch screen
in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
BTI
|
08/12/05
|
11.2%
|
British
American Tobacco (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Tobacco
|
-3.4%
|
-2.2%
|
-67
|
-81
|
|
SKM
|
02/07/05
|
0.9%
|
SK Telecom
Co., Ltd. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-12.1%
|
-0.7%
|
-88
|
-72
|
|
CHL
|
03/18/05
|
50.7%
|
China Mobile (Hong Kong) Limited (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-0.7%
|
3.4%
|
-39
|
-31
|
|
KOF
|
04/29/05
|
19.7%
|
Coca-Cola
FEMSA, S.A. (ADR)
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Beverages
(Non-Alcoholic)
|
-4.6%
|
1.6%
|
-30
|
-21
|
|
TMX
|
06/03/05
|
31.3%
|
Telefonos
de Mexico, S.A. (ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
0.0%
|
1.0%
|
-19
|
-15
|
|
TM
|
12/13/04
|
38.2%
|
Toyota
Motor Corporation (ADR)
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
0.0%
|
5.5%
|
-5
|
0
|
For the creen in
Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable
stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3F
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
BJS
|
11/04/05
|
10.2%
|
BJ
Services Company
|
Energy
|
Oil Well
Services & Equipment
|
-4.3%
|
-0.9%
|
-63
|
-74
|
|
ZIGO
|
12/09/05
|
-7.3%
|
Zygo
Corporation
|
Technology
|
Semiconductors
|
-7.3%
|
-2.1%
|
-79
|
-73
|
|
OSK
|
03/12/05
|
12.4%
|
Oshkosh
Truck Corporation
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Auto &
Truck Manufacturers
|
-3.3%
|
-1.7%
|
-78
|
-69
|
|
CHE
|
05/06/05
|
31.4%
|
Chemed
Corporation
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-5.6%
|
-1.2%
|
-63
|
-68
|
|
AMTD
|
10/28/05
|
17.4%
|
Ameritrade
Holding Corp.
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
-2.4%
|
-1.4%
|
-62
|
-68
|
|
WSO
|
11/25/05
|
0.8%
|
Watsco,
Incorporated
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-8.2%
|
3.8%
|
-66
|
-66
|
|
CTX
|
11/18/05
|
-4.0%
|
Centex
Corporation
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-6.9%
|
-0.9%
|
-54
|
-66
|
|
BEN
|
11/04/05
|
5.8%
|
Franklin
Resources, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
-1.6%
|
-0.6%
|
-74
|
-59
|
|
PCU
|
12/02/05
|
1.4%
|
Southern
Copper Corporation (USA)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Metal
Mining
|
-3.6%
|
-1.2%
|
-49
|
-52
|
|
ADTN
|
11/25/05
|
0.0%
|
ADTRAN,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-0.7%
|
-0.7%
|
-66
|
-48
|
|
HCC
|
10/21/05
|
9.5%
|
HCC
Insurance Holdings, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-9.4%
|
0.1%
|
-61
|
-48
|
|
VTIV
|
11/11/05
|
-6.8%
|
Ventiv
Health, Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
-8.5%
|
-0.1%
|
-60
|
-42
|
|
BHP
|
09/09/05
|
4.7%
|
BHP
Billiton Limited (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Metal
Mining
|
-3.5%
|
2.3%
|
-47
|
-39
|
|
VIP
|
12/09/05
|
-1.9%
|
Vimpel-Communications
(ADR)
|
Services
|
Communications
Services
|
-1.9%
|
3.7%
|
-48
|
-30
|
|
UNH
|
04/15/05
|
36.5%
|
UnitedHealth
Group Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Accident & Health)
|
-0.2%
|
0.8%
|
-22
|
-24
|
|
LM
|
08/12/05
|
11.7%
|
Legg
Mason, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
-3.4%
|
0.9%
|
-52
|
-23
|
|
ENDP
|
11/18/05
|
2.9%
|
Endo
Pharmaceuticals
|
Health
Care
|
Biotechnology
& Drugs
|
-2.1%
|
0.9%
|
-39
|
-17
|
|
MOT
|
12/09/05
|
0.3%
|
Motorola,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
0.0%
|
4.8%
|
-27
|
-10
|
|
ET
|
10/21/05
|
20.5%
|
E*TRADE
FINANCIAL Corporation
|
Financial
|
Investment
Services
|
0.0%
|
1.6%
|
-7
|
-9
|
|
GOL
|
12/16/05
|
7.9%
|
GOL Linhas
Aereas Inteligentes SA (ADR)
|
Transportation
|
Airline
|
0.0%
|
7.9%
|
-17
|
-5
|
|
SYT
|
04/08/05
|
14.4%
|
Syngenta
AG (ADR)
|
Basic
Materials
|
Chemical
Manufacturing
|
0.0%
|
3.4%
|
-2
|
-3
|
The filter for Warren
Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term.
Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in
order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only
those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
TOL
|
12/16/05
|
-5.0%
|
Toll
Brothers, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-5.0%
|
-5.0%
|
-71
|
-84
|
|
HDI
|
10/14/05
|
5.3%
|
Harley-Davidson,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Recreational
Products
|
-7.1%
|
-1.3%
|
-53
|
-82
|
|
DHI
|
10/21/05
|
16.8%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-4.6%
|
-4.2%
|
-48
|
-80
|
|
PGR
|
12/27/04
|
41.7%
|
The
Progressive Corp.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-3.7%
|
-0.4%
|
-86
|
-79
|
|
MIK
|
10/14/05
|
14.2%
|
Michaels
Stores, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-7.8%
|
-3.5%
|
-82
|
-77
|
|
FNF
|
10/21/05
|
0.8%
|
Fidelity
National Financial
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Property & Casualty)
|
-6.8%
|
-1.3%
|
-66
|
-73
|
|
RS
|
04/15/05
|
64.3%
|
Reliance
Steel & Aluminum
|
Basic
Materials
|
Misc.
Fabricated Products
|
-5.4%
|
0.5%
|
-77
|
-65
|
|
LNCR
|
12/27/04
|
-0.6%
|
Lincare
Holdings Inc.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-8.9%
|
0.2%
|
-71
|
-62
|
|
DSPG
|
02/07/05
|
0.0%
|
DSP Group,
Inc.
|
Technology
|
Communications
Equipment
|
-8.0%
|
0.9%
|
-78
|
-61
|
|
NKE
|
09/23/05
|
7.1%
|
NIKE, Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Footwear
|
-4.9%
|
-1.7%
|
-68
|
-58
|
|
EASI
|
09/09/05
|
23.4%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-0.1%
|
0.4%
|
-35
|
-55
|
|
RCII
|
10/21/05
|
17.6%
|
Rent-A-Center,
Inc
|
Services
|
Rental
& Leasing
|
-5.3%
|
0.3%
|
-70
|
-51
|
|
RI
|
09/02/05
|
21.6%
|
Ruby
Tuesday, Inc.
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-0.9%
|
0.4%
|
-47
|
-40
|
|
FOSL
|
12/02/05
|
1.8%
|
Fossil,
Inc.
|
Consumer
Cyclical
|
Jewelry
& Silverware
|
-0.3%
|
2.6%
|
-36
|
-25
|
|
THO
|
04/15/05
|
50.9%
|
Thor
Industries, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Mobile
Homes & RVs
|
-0.2%
|
1.6%
|
-8
|
-20
|
|
STLD
|
12/16/05
|
4.9%
|
Steel
Dynamics, Inc.
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
0.0%
|
4.9%
|
-20
|
-19
|
|
NUE
|
04/15/05
|
39.4%
|
Nucor
Corporation
|
Basic
Materials
|
Iron &
Steel
|
-1.8%
|
2.7%
|
-26
|
-6
|
|
PSUN
|
12/09/05
|
1.4%
|
Pacific
Sunwear of CA
|
Services
|
Retail
(Apparel)
|
0.0%
|
3.7%
|
-21
|
-6
|
|
ABFS
|
04/29/05
|
44.3%
|
Arkansas
Best Corporation
|
Transportation
|
Trucking
|
0.0%
|
4.3%
|
-2
|
-5
|
|
ACS
|
04/29/05
|
28.0%
|
Affiliated
Computer Services, Inc.
|
Technology
|
Computer
Services
|
0.0%
|
9.9%
|
-14
|
-3
|
|
ASH
|
10/28/05
|
9.8%
|
Ashland
Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
0.0%
|
3.8%
|
-10
|
-1
|
Stocks from Benjamin
Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H. A requirement was
added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3H
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
CV
|
10/14/05
|
20.6%
|
Central
Vermont Public Services Corp.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-10.2%
|
-6.0%
|
-100
|
-98
|
|
SRE
|
01/10/05
|
24.9%
|
Sempra
Energy
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-4.9%
|
-3.1%
|
-82
|
-93
|
|
UU
|
06/10/05
|
-2.1%
|
United
Utilities PLC (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-4.2%
|
-3.0%
|
-81
|
-85
|
|
PGN
|
01/10/05
|
0.6%
|
Progress
Energy, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-3.1%
|
-1.5%
|
-60
|
-73
|
|
OKE
|
11/11/05
|
1.4%
|
ONEOK,
Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-3.0%
|
-0.9%
|
-89
|
-69
|
|
CPK
|
05/06/05
|
17.8%
|
Chesapeake Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-12.9%
|
-1.9%
|
-72
|
-67
|
|
WGL
|
12/23/05
|
0.0%
|
WGL
Holdings, Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
0.0%
|
-2.2%
|
-44
|
-57
|
|
ATO
|
04/01/05
|
-2.0%
|
Atmos
Energy Corporation
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-11.4%
|
-1.6%
|
-78
|
-56
|
|
PNW
|
01/10/05
|
-1.2%
|
Pinnacle
West Capital
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-8.3%
|
-1.4%
|
-55
|
-54
|
|
WPS
|
02/07/05
|
10.1%
|
WPS
Resources Corp
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
-4.8%
|
-1.0%
|
-47
|
-54
|
|
ATG
|
10/21/05
|
5.6%
|
AGL
Resources Inc.
|
Utilities
|
Natural
Gas Utilities
|
-3.9%
|
-1.0%
|
-28
|
-31
|
|
KEP
|
01/10/05
|
59.7%
|
Korea
Electric Power Corporation (ADR)
|
Utilities
|
Electric
Utilities
|
0.0%
|
4.3%
|
-5
|
-6
|
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of
investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
John Templeton Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
KRON
|
10/28/05
|
-3.1%
|
Kronos
Incorporated
|
Technology
|
Software
& Programming
|
-11.2%
|
-1.7%
|
-93
|
-96
|
|
AMSG
|
10/14/05
|
-3.5%
|
AmSurg Corp.
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-8.8%
|
-3.3%
|
-97
|
-95
|
|
WSM
|
09/02/05
|
12.7%
|
Williams-Sonoma,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Specialty Non-Apparel)
|
-3.8%
|
-1.9%
|
-87
|
-88
|
|
SFG
|
05/27/05
|
33.5%
|
StanCorp
Financial Group, Inc.
|
Financial
|
Insurance
(Life)
|
-5.5%
|
-1.4%
|
-87
|
-87
|
|
TOL
|
12/09/05
|
0.9%
|
Toll
Brothers, Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-6.4%
|
-5.0%
|
-71
|
-84
|
|
LOW
|
11/18/05
|
2.3%
|
Lowe's
Companies, Inc.
|
Services
|
Retail
(Home Improvement)
|
-2.8%
|
-2.8%
|
-76
|
-81
|
|
EDMC
|
12/16/05
|
0.7%
|
Education
Management Corp
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-0.2%
|
0.7%
|
-59
|
-59
|
|
SNV
|
05/27/05
|
-6.7%
|
Synovus
Financial Corp.
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-8.8%
|
-3.8%
|
-70
|
-59
|
|
EASI
|
06/03/05
|
18.3%
|
Engineered
Support System
|
Capital
Goods
|
Misc.
Capital Goods
|
-0.1%
|
0.4%
|
-35
|
-55
|
|
MTB
|
05/27/05
|
7.1%
|
M&T
Bank Corporation
|
Financial
|
Regional
Banks
|
-1.7%
|
-0.5%
|
-34
|
-45
|
|
CAKE
|
10/21/05
|
10.7%
|
The
Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
|
Services
|
Restaurants
|
-0.9%
|
-0.9%
|
-55
|
-44
|
|
CHD
|
11/18/05
|
0.1%
|
Church
& Dwight Co., Inc.
|
Consumer
Non-Cyclical
|
Personal
& Household Products
|
-1.4%
|
2.2%
|
-63
|
-42
|
|
DGX
|
08/19/05
|
4.8%
|
Quest
Diagnostics Incorporated
|
Health
Care
|
Healthcare
Facilities
|
-0.2%
|
0.6%
|
-25
|
-41
|
|
HHS
|
10/28/05
|
5.3%
|
Harte-Hanks,
Inc.
|
Services
|
Printing
& Publishing
|
0.0%
|
0.9%
|
-42
|
-18
|
|
CPS
|
05/27/05
|
9.5%
|
ChoicePoint
Inc.
|
Services
|
Business
Services
|
0.0%
|
3.2%
|
-4
|
-7
|
Optionable stocks from
Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J.
Table 3J
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock
|
Reference
|
% Chg
|
Company
|
Sector
|
Industry
|
% from Max
|
Weekly % Gain
|
%R1
|
%R2
|
|
SFY
|
10/14/05
|
7.8%
|
Swift Energy
Company
|
Energy
|
Oil &
Gas Operations
|
-9.9%
|
-0.1%
|
-74
|
-82
|
|
DHI
|
11/18/05
|
4.0%
|
D.R.
Horton Inc.
|
Capital
Goods
|
Construction
Services
|
-4.6%
|
-4.2%
|
-48
|
-80
|
|
ESI
|
11/04/05
|
1.3%
|
ITT
Educational Services
|
Services
|
Schools
|
-4.1%
|
-1.5%
|
-45
|
-80
|
|
SM
|
10/21/05
|
20.1%
|
St. Mary
Land & Exploration Co.
|
