Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter
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Issue No. 88 August 7, 2006 Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
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1.0 Trading
Divergence between the S&P 500 and NASDAQ continues as FOMC policy statement nears.
1.1 Divergence
With earnings reports winding down, it appears that S&P 500 earnings gains are running at about 15% with forecasts for similar earnings gains for the third quarter. The S&P 500 Index in Figure 1A has been flat for the past six to eight months.
FIGURE 1A
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© 2006 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice. While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation with trading system companies. |
As we continue into summer, it should be noted that this period is typically weak because of vacations and low volume. The NASDAQ in Figure 1B is playing that role to the hilt. A late year rally, if it comes, typically cannot be expected without technology stocks participating along with S&P financials.
FIGURE 1B
Market sentiment is upbeat as the FOMC prepares to issue a policy statement on Tuesday. Whatever, happens, I think we can expect a dramatic market reaction. The FOMC statement of policy is as important as whether or not a rate hike takes place. There are four possibilities listed in Table 1A.
Table 1A
FOMC Scenarios
|
FOMC Action |
Statement of Policy |
Probability |
|
No rate hike |
Future tightening (restrictive) |
Moderate to high |
|
No rate hike |
Future easing (accommodative) |
Low |
|
Rate hike |
Future tightening (restrictive) |
Low to moderate |
|
Rate hike |
Future easing (accommodative) |
Moderate |
The only scenario likely to stimulate a significant rally at this time of year is number two, no rate hike with a policy statement of accommodation. The probability for this is low in view of current inflation indicators. The other three scenarios should surprise the market and lead to a short-term sell off unless the Fed is unusually crafty in its policy wording.
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Polish trading skills by
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2.0 Market Analysis
A weak jobs report gave the market added reasons to believe the FOMC will soon halt rake increases. Fed funds futures predict only a 20% chance of a rate hike on Tuesday. A brief rally on Friday was followed by weakening as a sobering market may have seen one too many end-of-rate-hike rallies.
Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A
Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month |
1 wk ago |
2 wks ago |
3 wks ago |
4 wks ago |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Index |
1.3% |
0.2% |
3.2% |
1.2% |
-3.2% |
|
NASDAQ Composite Index |
-2.1% |
-0.4% |
3.7% |
-0.8% |
-4.4% |
|
S & P 500 Index |
1.1% |
0.1% |
3.1% |
0.3% |
-2.3% |
|
NYSE Composite Index |
1.4% |
0.2% |
3.8% |
0.0% |
-2.5% |
|
Russell 2000 Index |
-1.1% |
0.2% |
4.2% |
-1.4% |
-4.0% |
|
HGX, Phil. Housing Index |
-2.7% |
3.2% |
5.0% |
-2.9% |
-7.5% |
|
IYR, Real Estate |
4.1% |
1.6% |
3.6% |
0.4% |
-1.5% |
|
GLD, GOLD |
2.6% |
1.9% |
2.3% |
-6.3% |
5.1% |
|
RKH, Banking |
5.3% |
1.1% |
2.3% |
3.2% |
-1.3% |
|
IYT, Transportation |
-9.7% |
-0.9% |
-0.7% |
-2.8% |
-5.6% |
|
SMH, Semiconductors |
-1.6% |
-0.4% |
7.7% |
-5.0% |
-3.4% |
|
BBH, Biotechnology |
-0.8% |
0.4% |
3.7% |
-0.4% |
-4.3% |
|
OIH, Oil Infrastructure |
-2.9% |
-0.7% |
8.9% |
-11.4% |
1.4% |
|
XLE, Energy |
2.0% |
0.1% |
6.0% |
-5.8% |
2.0% |
|
XLU, Utilities |
4.8% |
0.2% |
1.6% |
2.4% |
0.5% |
|
XLB, Materials |
-2.0% |
1.3% |
2.4% |
-2.4% |
-3.2% |
|
XLI, Industrial |
-3.7% |
0.1% |
1.0% |
-0.9% |
-3.8% |
|
XLK, Technology |
-1.1% |
-0.4% |
4.4% |
-0.5% |
-4.4% |
|
XLV, Healthcare |
4.6% |
-0.6% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
-1.4% |
|
XLF, Financials |
2.8% |
0.4% |
2.6% |
2.1% |
-2.3% |
|
XLP, Consumer Staples |
1.6% |
0.2% |
1.0% |
1.8% |
-1.5% |
|
XLY, Consumer Discretionary |
-1.2% |
0.6% |
2.9% |
-0.2% |
-4.6% |
The VIX and VXN volatility indexes are listed in Table 2B.
Table 2B
Volatility
|
Indicator |
Current |
Last Week |
2 Weeks Ago |
Complacent |
Cautious |
|
VIX ** |
14.3 |
14.3 |
17.4 |
< 20 |
> 50 |
|
VXN *** |
21.6 |
19.3 |
23.2 |
< 30 |
> 70 |
|
** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal. *** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal. |
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Figure 2A compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s.
FIGURE 2A
Table 2C
Market Summary
Industries are listed according to the Yahoo Industry Classification System
Major Indices For the Past Week: Dow Jones +0.2% NASDAQ -0.4% S&P500 Index +0.1% Russell 2000 +0.2% NYSE +0.2% 30 Year Bond 4.992% 10 Year Note 4.901% Leading Industries For the Past Week: Lagging Industries For the Past Week: |
Leading Industries For the Past Month: Lagging Industries For the Past Month: Crude Oil $74.60 Gold for the past 30 days: USD +2.68% CAD +4.12% CHF +1.67% GBP -1.26% EUR +1.41% JPY +1.45% |
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3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders. The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.
Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.
One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence.
A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R. The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.
The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months. More information on filters is available on the web site.
A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter |
Avg. % Change Since Listed |
Avg. % Change Friday |
1 Month |
1 Week Ago |
2 weeks Ago |
3 Weeks Ago |
4 Weeks Ago |
|
Net Insider Buying |
1.1% |
1.5% |
-2.6% |
1.7% |
1.0% |
1.4% |
-5.7% |
|
Cash Rich Companies |
2.6% |
0.9% |
-2.6% |
0.3% |
1.6% |
-0.8% |
-3.8% |
|
Price to Free Cash Flow |
1.3% |
0.6% |
-3.2% |
1.3% |
1.5% |
-0.9% |
-4.9% |
|
Growth Momentum |
3.5% |
-0.3% |
2.1% |
3.0% |
2.5% |
0.1% |
-3.3% |
|
Lynch |
21.8% |
0.4% |
2.9% |
0.8% |
4.5% |
1.0% |
-3.1% |
|
Buffett |
8.6% |
-0.4% |
-0.6% |
0.6% |
4.5% |
-1.6% |
-3.9% |
|
Graham |
11.2% |
-0.1% |
3.7% |
-0.7% |
3.0% |
2.1% |
-0.8% |
|
Templeton |
8.7% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
2.2% |
3.6% |
-0.4% |
-4.9% |
|
Zweig |
5.8% |
-0.1% |
4.3% |
1.8% |
7.5% |
-1.8% |
-2.5% |
|
Average |
7.2% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
1.2% |
3.3% |
-0.1% |
-3.6% |
Key
|
Passed Recent Filter |
|
Price declined by half of stop loss setting |
|
Oversold based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
|
Overbought based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
DWRI |
07/21/06 |
-6.8% |
Design Within Reach, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Furniture & Fixtures |
-7.3% |
1.0% |
-96 |
-80 |
|
PLB |
07/21/06 |
-2.0% |
American Italian Pasta Company |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Food Processing |
-3.9% |
-3.7% |
-78 |
-78 |
|
AVZA |
07/07/06 |
-4.6% |
Aviza Technology Inc. |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
-7.2% |
0.7% |
-72 |
-68 |
|
MSN |
07/07/06 |
-1.0% |
Emerson Radio Corp. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Audio & Video Equipment |
-2.2% |
-1.0% |
-67 |
-62 |
|
PHRM |
07/07/06 |
-2.5% |
Pharmion Corporation |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-5.3% |
-2.5% |
-44 |
-62 |
|
VLNC |
08/04/06 |
0.0% |
Valence Technology, Inc. |
Technology |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
0.0% |
-6.4% |
-57 |
-48 |
|
RGNC |
05/26/06 |
6.2% |
Regency Energy Partners LP |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-2.7% |
6.1% |
-53 |
-44 |
|
TELK |
08/04/06 |
0.0% |
Telik, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
0.0% |
-2.4% |
-35 |
-43 |
|
TWI |
06/16/06 |
0.3% |
Titan International, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Parts |
-5.2% |
-4.2% |
-33 |
-41 |
|
APN |
07/21/06 |
18.2% |
Applica Incorporated |
Consumer Cyclical |
Appliances & Tools |
0.0% |
5.7% |
-66 |
-37 |
|
ACME |
05/12/06 |
3.8% |
ACME Communications, Inc. |
Services |
Broadcasting & Cable TV |
-6.0% |
2.6% |
-24 |
-35 |
Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
KONG |
07/07/06 |
-6.3% |
KongZhong Corporation (ADR) |
Technology |
Computer Services |
-11.6% |
-6.3% |
-96 |
-93 |
|
VNUS |
07/28/06 |
-2.6% |
VNUS Medical Technologies, Inc. |
Health Care |
Medical Equipment & Supplies |
-4.4% |
-17.0% |
-81 |
-76 |
|
EXAR |
07/28/06 |
1.9% |
Exar Corporation |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
0.0% |
4.9% |
-39 |
-30 |
|
SCIX |
04/07/06 |
20.0% |
Scailex Corp., Ltd. |
Technology |
Computer Networks |
-0.6% |
0.7% |
-25 |
-26 |
|
WSC |
03/11/06 |
-0.1% |
Wesco Financial Corporation |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-2.2% |
4.8% |
-15 |
-8 |
Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5. Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.
Table 3D
Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
LNX |
07/14/06 |
-4.0% |
Lenox Group Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Personal & Household Products |
-9.7% |
-7.7% |
-83 |
-96 |
|
JRC |
07/28/06 |
-7.0% |
Journal Register Company |
Services |
Printing & Publishing |
-7.0% |
-7.0% |
-93 |
-94 |
|
MOVI |
07/14/06 |
10.2% |
Movie Gallery, Inc. |
Services |
Recreational Activities |
0.0% |
18.2% |
-66 |
-56 |
|
RHD |
07/14/06 |
-1.6% |
R.H. Donnelley Corp. |
Services |
Advertising |
-1.6% |
1.6% |
-40 |
-40 |
|
FIS |
05/12/06 |
-3.6% |
Fidelity National Information Services |
Services |
Business Services |
-4.9% |
-0.9% |
-22 |
-35 |
|
F |
07/21/06 |
13.5% |
FORD MOTOR |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
0.0% |
3.5% |
-13 |
0 |
For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
RTP |
08/04/06 |
0.0% |
Rio Tinto plc (ADR) |
Basic Materials |
Metal Mining |
0.0% |
2.0% |
-15 |
-19 |
|
BTI |
08/12/05 |
34.6% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Tobacco |
-1.3% |
4.2% |
-12 |
-16 |
|
AZN |
02/03/06 |
30.8% |
AstraZeneca PLC (ADR) |
Health Care |
Major Drugs |
-1.1% |
2.6% |
-30 |
-14 |
For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3F
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
PPDI |
08/04/06 |
0.0% |
Pharmaceutical Product Development, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
0.0% |
-1.5% |
-35 |
-41 |
|
ENDP |
02/17/06 |
10.6% |
Endo Pharmaceuticals |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-1.4% |
7.2% |
-10 |
-11 |
|
CSE |
08/04/06 |
0.0% |
CapitalSource, Inc. |
Financial |
Misc. Financial Services |
0.0% |
3.3% |
-3 |
-5 |
The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term. Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
STLD |
07/21/06 |
-3.7% |
Steel Dynamics, Inc. |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
-5.9% |
-13.4% |
-84 |
-97 |
|
PSUN |
08/04/06 |
0.0% |
Pacific Sunwear of CA |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
0.0% |
-14.7% |
-88 |
-89 |
|
THO |
07/21/06 |
-0.8% |
Thor Industries, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Mobile Homes & RVs |
-4.0% |
-13.3% |
-80 |
-86 |
|
JBHT |
07/28/06 |
1.3% |
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. |
Transportation |
Trucking |
-0.3% |
-15.7% |
-82 |
-83 |
|
NKE |
09/23/05 |
-3.2% |
NIKE, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Footwear |
-14.0% |
-0.5% |
-85 |
-77 |
|
ABFS |
04/29/05 |
42.5% |
Arkansas Best Corporation |
Transportation |
Trucking |
-11.1% |
-6.5% |
-53 |
-70 |
|
EOG |
07/14/06 |
-0.8% |
EOG Resources, Inc. |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-6.1% |
0.8% |
-52 |
-53 |
|
MTH |
08/04/06 |
0.0% |
Meritage Homes Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
-8.5% |
-54 |
-50 |
|
OXY |
03/03/06 |
10.8% |
Occidental Petroleum Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-2.4% |
2.6% |
-28 |
-45 |
|
TBL |
07/07/06 |
0.8% |
The Timberland Company |
Consumer Cyclical |
Footwear |
-1.7% |
0.8% |
-60 |
-42 |
|
AEOS |
03/10/06 |
15.7% |
American Eagle Outfitters |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-4.5% |
-4.5% |
-42 |
-40 |
|
SPF |
07/14/06 |
7.6% |
Standard Pacific Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
-3.8% |
-40 |
-37 |
|
PCU |
07/21/06 |
8.4% |
Southern Copper Corporation |
Basic Materials |
Metal Mining |
-5.1% |
-0.3% |
-24 |
-35 |
|
ASH |
07/21/06 |
3.6% |
ASHLAND INC NEW |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-1.2% |
1.1% |
-31 |
-33 |
|
PHM |
08/04/06 |
0.0% |
Pulte Homes, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
4.9% |
-12 |
-26 |
|
MVK |
07/21/06 |
0.8% |
Maverick Tube Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Construction - Supplies and Fixtures |
-0.2% |
1.1% |
-6 |
-20 |
|
NAT |
05/12/06 |
24.7% |
Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited |
Transportation |
Water Transportation |
-0.4% |
3.9% |
-4 |
-17 |
|
BTI |
12/30/05 |
20.4% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Tobacco |
-1.3% |
4.2% |
-12 |
-16 |
|
PETD |
07/07/06 |
19.3% |
Petroleum Development Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-2.6% |
19.3% |
-12 |
-15 |
|
HDI |
10/14/05 |
16.2% |
Harley-Davidson, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Recreational Products |
-0.1% |
5.3% |
-3 |
-11 |
|
STR |
05/26/06 |
24.8% |
Questar Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-0.7% |
14.2% |
-6 |
-10 |
|
XOM |
08/04/06 |
0.0% |
ExxonMobil Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
0.0% |
9.3% |
-8 |
-6 |
Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H. A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3H
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
ATG |
10/21/05 |
12.3% |
AGL Resources Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-6.4% |
-1.7% |
-87 |
-83 |
|
UGI |
12/30/05 |
21.6% |
UGI Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-2.3% |
1.9% |
-65 |
-44 |
|
WGL |
12/23/05 |
-2.8% |
WGL Holdings, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-5.8% |
3.0% |
-22 |
-33 |
|
VVC |
03/03/06 |
7.4% |
Vectren Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-1.5% |
1.2% |
-15 |
-28 |
|
SRE |
01/10/05 |
31.2% |
Sempra Energy |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-2.6% |
3.0% |
-17 |
-25 |
|
CLPHY |
08/04/06 |
0.0% |
CLP HOLDINGS LTD |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
0.0% |
0.9% |
-23 |
-23 |
|
ATO |
04/01/05 |
7.1% |
Atmos Energy Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-3.1% |
1.7% |
-25 |
-22 |
|
OTTR |
06/09/06 |
8.4% |
Otter Tail Corporation |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-2.3% |
4.9% |
-5 |
-20 |
|
WPS |
05/26/06 |
6.3% |
WPS Resources Corp |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-1.0% |
8.4% |
-6 |
-17 |
|
PGN |
01/10/05 |
-0.6% |
Progress Energy, Inc. |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-4.2% |
2.3% |
-19 |
-15 |
|
OKE |
11/11/05 |
39.6% |
ONEOK, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-0.5% |
10.9% |
-8 |
-12 |
|
UU |
06/10/05 |
3.0% |
United Utilities PLC (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-2.1% |
4.2% |
-19 |
-7 |
|
EON |
03/10/06 |
12.5% |
E.ON AG (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
0.0% |
7.1% |
-6 |
-5 |
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
John Templeton Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
WSO |
07/28/06 |
1.5% |
Watsco, Incorporated |
Capital Goods |
Misc. Capital Goods |
-1.3% |
-19.6% |
-77 |
-80 |
|
HIBB |
07/21/06 |
4.5% |
Hibbett Sporting Goods, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
0.0% |
8.3% |
-68 |
-66 |
|
PNR |
07/28/06 |
3.1% |
Pentair, Inc. |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-0.4% |
-12.5% |
-63 |
-64 |
|
SPLS |
05/26/06 |
-4.4% |
Staples, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-7.9% |
-3.8% |
-76 |
-54 |
|
PETS |
07/07/06 |
6.1% |
PetMed Express, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Drugs) |
-6.5% |
6.1% |
-51 |
-44 |
|
DHI |
07/14/06 |
7.1% |
D.R. Horton Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
-5.0% |
-40 |
-38 |
|
DGX |
08/19/05 |
22.0% |
Quest Diagnostics Incorporated |
Health Care |
Healthcare Facilities |
-0.4% |
0.2% |
-31 |
-27 |
|
GISX |
12/30/05 |
22.8% |
Global Imaging Systems, Inc. |
Technology |
Office Equipment |
-1.1% |
2.6% |
-5 |
-18 |
|
COH |
07/28/06 |
6.7% |
Coach, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Apparel/Accessories |
-0.5% |
5.4% |
-6 |
-17 |
|
BBBY |
07/21/06 |
6.7% |
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
0.0% |
7.6% |
-7 |
-15 |
|
EWBC |
12/30/05 |
11.4% |
East West Bancorp, Inc. |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-0.6% |
7.5% |
-7 |
-12 |
|
HDI |
02/24/06 |
8.9% |
Harley-Davidson, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Recreational Products |
-0.1% |
1.0% |
-3 |
-11 |
|
CHD |
11/18/05 |
11.8% |
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Personal & Household Products |
-1.6% |
2.8% |
0 |
-9 |
|
MIK |
12/30/05 |
20.3% |
Michaels Stores, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-0.6% |
0.2% |
-2 |
-6 |
|
JNJ |
02/17/06 |
7.6% |
Johnson & Johnson |
Health Care |
Major Drugs |
0.0% |
1.0% |
-6 |
-4 |
|
GBCI |
05/05/06 |
2.5% |
Glacier Bancorp, Inc. |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
0.0% |
8.9% |
-5 |
-2 |
Optionable stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J.
Table 3J
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
LSTR |
02/10/06 |
3.6% |
Landstar System, Inc. |
Transportation |
Trucking |
-8.9% |
-6.2% |
-45 |
-46 |
|
MRO |
04/28/06 |
9.9% |
Marathon Oil Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-4.0% |
1.7% |
-38 |
-38 |
|
ESI |
11/04/05 |
12.7% |
ITT Educational Services |
Services |
Schools |
-2.6% |
3.5% |
-5 |
-36 |
|
SII |
04/28/06 |
4.9% |
Smith International, Inc. |
Energy |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-3.7% |
3.3% |
-7 |
-28 |
|
WHQ |
07/14/06 |
3.0% |
W-H Energy Services, Inc. |
Energy |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-3.8% |
7.1% |
-15 |
-26 |
|
PCAR |
07/28/06 |
3.0% |
PACCAR Inc |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-0.1% |
3.5% |
-10 |
-22 |
|
BEAV |
07/28/06 |
1.0% |
BE Aerospace, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Aerospace and Defense |
-4.3% |
7.0% |
-18 |
-20 |
|
GS |
06/16/06 |
6.2% |
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
0.0% |
3.0% |
-11 |
-19 |
|
BSC |
06/16/06 |
10.7% |
The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
0.0% |
4.5% |
-9 |
-11 |
|
DHR |
07/21/06 |
4.7% |
Danaher Corporation |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
0.0% |
4.8% |
-27 |
-10 |
|
TROW |
07/28/06 |
2.7% |
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
0.0% |
11.6% |
-10 |
-10 |
|
FSH |
05/05/06 |
3.0% |
Fisher Scientific International Inc. |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
-1.5% |
5.6% |
-2 |
-9 |
|
MDU |
01/27/06 |
8.5% |
MDU Resources Group, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
0.0% |
4.7% |
-9 |
-9 |
|
ERF |
05/05/06 |
7.2% |
ENERPLUS RESOURCES FUND SR G TR UNITS |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
6.7% |
-9 |
-6 |
4.0 Results & Conclusions
This section highlights trading performance. Only a summary is provided here to save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the website.
|
Major Indices Year to Date |
Relative to SMA 200 |
200 Day High |
Relative to High |
50 Day Low |
Relative to Low |
||||
|
|
12/30/05 |
8/5/06 |
% Chg |
08/05/06 |
Prior Week |
||||
|
DOW |
10717.5 |
11,240.35 |
4.88% |
2.30% |
1.29% |
11642.7 |
-3.46% |
10706.1 |
4.99% |
|
NASDAQ |
2205.32 |
2,085.05 |
-5.45% |
-6.30% |
-7.64% |
2370.88 |
-12.06% |
2020.39 |
3.20% |
|
S&P500 |
1248.29 |
1,279.36 |
2.49% |
0.82% |
-0.23% |
1325.76 |
-3.50% |
1223.69 |
4.55% |
|
Russell 2K |
673.22 |
701.26 |
4.17% |
-1.31% |
-3.21% |
781.83 |
-10.31% |
671.94 |
4.36% |
|
NYSE |
7753.95 |
8270.92 |
6.67% |
3.19% |
1.97% |
8646.96 |
-4.35% |
7719.78 |
7.14% |
|
Average |
|
|
2.55% |
-0.26% |
-1.57% |
|
-6.73% |
|
4.85% |
4.1 Options Trading
Average Profit per Trade 1.4%
Average Hold Time 3.1 days
4.2 Stock Trading
|
Stock Trading for 2006 ($10.5K Initial Capital) |
||
|
Number of Closed trades in 2006 = |
11 |
|
|
Average Trade Size = |
$1,000.00 |
|
|
Total Closed Position Share costs = |
$11,000.00 |
|
|
Gross Profit on Closed Positions = |
$331.86 |
3.0% |
|
Number of Open Positions = |
4 |
|
|
Gross Profit on Open Positions = |
-$219.95 |
-5.5% |
|
Broker Commission ($9.99/trade) = |
-$259.74 |
|
|
Subscription Cost to date = |
-$80.00 |
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses = |
-$227.82 |
-2.2% |
|
Cash = |
$6,831.86 |
|
Appendix - Investment Conference Schedule
Below are links to conference registration sites where you can sign up.
- 08-07-06 through 08-09-06, Colorado Convention Center, Downtown Denver, 2006 Rocky Mountain Natural Gas Strategy Conference & Investment Forum, Energy technology is ever-evolving. Now more than ever, necessity seeks invention. But the risks we face in employing and balancing new and mature energy technologies have created a double-edged sword -- too much confidence and spin on one side, too much skepticism and demagoguery on the other. Against the backdrop of unprecedented global interdependence and technological complexity, society is making macro-risk choices with little understanding of the consequences. The risks are growing harder to judge, much less quantify. While at the same time, the consequences of miscalculation are increasingly serious, interlocking and far ranging. Put another way, what's the ratio of cars in China or hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico to drilling rigs in the Rockies?
- 09-24-06 through 09-25-06, Toronto Convention Center, Toronto, Canada, 2006 Toronto Resource Investment Conference, featuring leading junior resource, exploration and development and producing public companies, featuring companies that may be the index leaders of tomorrow with Canada's largest line-up of newsletter editors, analysts, mining executives and industry professionals.
- 01-21-07 through 01-22-07, Vancouver Convention & Exhibition Centre, Vancouver, BC, 2007 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, Featuring a world-class line-up of speakers, covering all types of direct investments in resource public companies, speculative investing, resource exploration, oil & gas, world outlook, investment strategies and more.
Conference Search
Financial reporting and corporate news - "Corporate News Announcements"