Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter
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Issue No. 89 August 14, 2006 Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
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1.0 Trading
It was a week filled with strange market reactions and intraday reversals.
1.1 Sentiment
As anticipated, the FOMC did not hike interest rates, giving clear signs that further rate hikes are possible. This scenario was the highest probability. Somehow, the market was surprised. After an initial tick upward, the market sold off, reportedly because of fears of a slowing economy and reduced earnings capacity. On the other hand, an increased terrorist threat was greeted with a rally. This brief rally was due to a 3% drop in oil prices with expectations that demand for oil would decrease. A more sober analysis the following day revealed that airlines consume only 6 to 8% of available oil. The 35 to 50% implied reduction in demand was overdone.
The S&P 500 in Figure 1A appears about to retest its recent lows. With 90% of S&P 500 companies reporting, earnings are running at about 16% over last year. However, unit labor costs are rising, indicating a renewed inflation watch. June retail sales indicate the consumer is still spending.
FIGURE 1A
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The NASDAQ in Figure 1B also appears about to retest a recent low. A late year rally, if it comes, typically cannot be expected without technology stocks participating along with S&P financials.
FIGURE 1B
The market is caught between welcoming poor economic data, expecting the FOMC to see it as a reason to refrain from further rate hikes and fears that poor economic data may lead to reduce earnings and a possible recession. This sentiment points to sharp spikes on any news that has a bearing on inflation and economic growth.
___________________________
Polish trading skills.
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2.0 Market Analysis
Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A
Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month |
1 wk ago |
2 wks ago |
3 wks ago |
4 wks ago |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Index |
3.2% |
-1.4% |
0.2% |
3.2% |
1.2% |
|
NASDAQ Composite Index |
1.0% |
-1.3% |
-0.4% |
3.7% |
-0.8% |
|
S & P 500 Index |
2.5% |
-1.0% |
0.1% |
3.1% |
0.3% |
|
NYSE Composite Index |
2.7% |
-1.3% |
0.2% |
3.8% |
0.0% |
|
Russell 2000 Index |
-0.3% |
-3.2% |
0.2% |
4.2% |
-1.4% |
|
HGX, Phil. Housing Index |
-1.1% |
-6.0% |
3.2% |
5.0% |
-2.9% |
|
IYR, Real Estate |
1.1% |
-4.2% |
1.6% |
3.6% |
0.4% |
|
GLD, GOLD |
-4.7% |
-2.4% |
1.9% |
2.3% |
-6.3% |
|
RKH, Banking |
4.5% |
-2.2% |
1.1% |
2.3% |
3.2% |
|
IYT, Transportation |
-9.5% |
-5.4% |
-0.9% |
-0.7% |
-2.8% |
|
SMH, Semiconductors |
-0.3% |
-2.1% |
-0.4% |
7.7% |
-5.0% |
|
BBH, Biotechnology |
1.4% |
-2.1% |
0.4% |
3.7% |
-0.4% |
|
OIH, Oil Infrastructure |
-6.2% |
-2.1% |
-0.7% |
8.9% |
-11.4% |
|
XLE, Energy |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
6.0% |
-5.8% |
|
XLU, Utilities |
3.7% |
-0.6% |
0.2% |
1.6% |
2.4% |
|
XLB, Materials |
-0.1% |
-1.3% |
1.3% |
2.4% |
-2.4% |
|
XLI, Industrial |
-2.4% |
-2.6% |
0.1% |
1.0% |
-0.9% |
|
XLK, Technology |
3.2% |
-0.3% |
-0.4% |
4.4% |
-0.5% |
|
XLV, Healthcare |
5.3% |
-0.8% |
-0.6% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
|
XLF, Financials |
3.1% |
-1.9% |
0.4% |
2.6% |
2.1% |
|
XLP, Consumer Staples |
3.5% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
1.0% |
1.8% |
|
XLY, Consumer Discretionary |
2.0% |
-1.3% |
0.6% |
2.9% |
-0.2% |
The VIX and VXN volatility indexes are listed in Table 2B.
Table 2B
Volatility
|
Indicator |
Current |
Last Week |
2 Weeks Ago |
Complacent |
Cautious |
|
VIX ** |
14.3 |
14.3 |
14.3 |
< 20 |
> 50 |
|
VXN *** |
20.1 |
21.6 |
19.3 |
< 30 |
> 70 |
|
** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal. *** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal. |
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Figure 2A compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s.
FIGURE 2A
Table 2C
Market Summary
Industries are listed according to the Yahoo Industry Classification System
Major Indices For the Past Week: Dow Jones -1.4% NASDAQ -1.3% S&P500 Index -1.0% Russell 2000 -3.2% NYSE -1.3% 30 Year Bond 5.092% 10 Year Note 4.967% Leading Industries For the Past Week: Lagging Industries For the Past Week: |
Leading Industries For the Past Month: Lagging Industries For the Past Month: Crude Oil $74.37 Gold for the past 30 days: USD -2.49% CAD -3.55% CHF -1.98% GBP -5.48% EUR -2.82% JPY -1.90% |
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3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders. The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.
Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.
One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence.
A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R. The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.
The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months. More information on filters is available on the web site.
A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter |
Avg. % Change Since Listed |
Avg. % Change Friday |
1 Month |
1 Week Ago |
2 weeks Ago |
3 Weeks Ago |
4 Weeks Ago |
|
Net Insider Buying |
0.9% |
-1.0% |
3.6% |
-0.5% |
1.4% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
Cash Rich Companies |
6.8% |
-0.1% |
6.6% |
-0.4% |
1.3% |
2.4% |
3.3% |
|
Price to Free Cash Flow |
0.7% |
-0.3% |
2.1% |
-0.3% |
0.4% |
2.9% |
-1.1% |
|
Growth Momentum |
0.6% |
-0.2% |
3.1% |
-0.8% |
2.5% |
3.7% |
-1.9% |
|
Lynch |
14.6% |
-1.4% |
2.5% |
-2.2% |
0.1% |
4.6% |
0.1% |
|
Buffett |
4.6% |
-0.8% |
0.8% |
-2.4% |
0.4% |
5.2% |
-2.2% |
|
Graham |
11.3% |
-0.6% |
3.8% |
-0.9% |
-0.7% |
3.1% |
2.4% |
|
Templeton |
5.8% |
-0.6% |
3.0% |
-2.3% |
2.2% |
3.5% |
-0.2% |
|
Zweig |
4.3% |
-1.0% |
5.9% |
-1.4% |
1.9% |
8.4% |
-2.7% |
|
Average |
5.5% |
-0.7% |
3.5% |
-1.3% |
1.1% |
3.9% |
-0.1% |
Key
|
Passed Recent Filter |
|
Price declined by half of stop loss setting |
|
Oversold based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
|
Overbought based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
PLB |
07/21/06 |
-3.7% |
American Italian Pasta Company |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Food Processing |
-5.5% |
-3.7% |
-76 |
-91 |
|
MOBE |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Mobility Electronics, Inc. |
Technology |
Computer Peripherals |
0.0% |
-8.7% |
-84 |
-88 |
|
TELK |
08/04/06 |
-4.2% |
Telik, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-4.2% |
-2.4% |
-85 |
-80 |
|
TWI |
06/16/06 |
-4.0% |
Titan International, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Parts |
-9.2% |
-3.6% |
-62 |
-72 |
|
PHRM |
07/07/06 |
-3.4% |
Pharmion Corporation |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-6.2% |
-1.0% |
-65 |
-68 |
|
AVZA |
07/07/06 |
-7.2% |
Aviza Technology Inc. |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
-9.6% |
-2.6% |
-80 |
-60 |
|
ACME |
05/12/06 |
1.2% |
ACME Communications, Inc. |
Services |
Broadcasting & Cable TV |
-8.3% |
-2.5% |
-36 |
-48 |
|
VLNC |
08/04/06 |
3.1% |
Valence Technology, Inc. |
Technology |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
-3.5% |
38.0% |
-27 |
-28 |
|
MSN |
07/07/06 |
1.0% |
Emerson Radio Corp. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Audio & Video Equipment |
-0.3% |
0.0% |
-31 |
-26 |
|
NEU |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
NewMarket Corporation |
Basic Materials |
Chemical Manufacturing |
0.0% |
26.1% |
-16 |
-23 |
|
APN |
07/21/06 |
27.2% |
Applica Incorporated |
Consumer Cyclical |
Appliances & Tools |
-6.0% |
7.6% |
-10 |
-20 |
Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
SCIX |
04/07/06 |
18.5% |
Scailex Corp., Ltd. |
Technology |
Computer Networks |
-2.2% |
3.6% |
-34 |
-34 |
|
EXAR |
07/28/06 |
0.4% |
Exar Corporation |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
-1.5% |
7.2% |
-41 |
-32 |
|
WSC |
03/11/06 |
1.4% |
Wesco Financial Corporation |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-0.7% |
9.0% |
-6 |
-8 |
Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5. Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.
Table 3D
Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
JRC |
07/28/06 |
-8.5% |
Journal Register Company |
Services |
Printing & Publishing |
-8.5% |
-1.5% |
-90 |
-94 |
|
Y |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Alleghany Corporation |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
-60 |
-61 |
|
RHD |
07/14/06 |
-3.9% |
R.H. Donnelley Corp. |
Services |
Advertising |
-3.9% |
-2.3% |
-54 |
-56 |
|
TGS |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A (ADR) |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
-4.2% |
-45 |
-55 |
|
MNT |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Mentor Corporation |
Health Care |
Medical Equipment & Supplies |
0.0% |
0.3% |
-25 |
-26 |
|
FD |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Federated Department Str. |
Services |
Retail (Department & Discount) |
0.0% |
2.5% |
-28 |
-20 |
|
F |
07/21/06 |
17.4% |
FORD MOTOR |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-0.3% |
3.4% |
-8 |
-19 |
For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
PKX |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
POSCO (ADR) |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
0.0% |
-1.8% |
-68 |
-84 |
|
RTP |
08/04/06 |
-4.1% |
Rio Tinto plc (ADR) |
Basic Materials |
Metal Mining |
-4.6% |
-0.8% |
-42 |
-53 |
|
AZN |
02/03/06 |
28.6% |
AstraZeneca PLC (ADR) |
Health Care |
Major Drugs |
-2.8% |
4.9% |
-19 |
-31 |
|
BTI |
08/12/05 |
33.7% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Tobacco |
-1.9% |
7.8% |
-17 |
-22 |
For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3F
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
CSE |
08/04/06 |
-7.2% |
CapitalSource, Inc. |
Financial |
Misc. Financial Services |
-7.2% |
-7.2% |
-89 |
-99 |
|
PPDI |
08/04/06 |
-0.4% |
Pharmaceutical Product Development, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-0.5% |
-0.4% |
-56 |
-60 |
|
PPDI |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Pharmaceutical Product Development, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
0.0% |
-0.4% |
-56 |
-60 |
|
ENDP |
02/17/06 |
10.7% |
Endo Pharmaceuticals |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-1.3% |
0.1% |
-21 |
-21 |
|
FTO |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Frontier Oil Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
3.8% |
-19 |
-15 |
The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term. Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
STLD |
07/21/06 |
-8.4% |
Steel Dynamics, Inc. |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
-10.5% |
-13.5% |
-92 |
-98 |
|
JBHT |
07/28/06 |
-8.0% |
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. |
Transportation |
Trucking |
-9.5% |
-20.1% |
-96 |
-97 |
|
CRDN |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Ceradyne, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Aerospace and Defense |
0.0% |
-11.6% |
-93 |
-96 |
|
RS |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Reliance Steel & Aluminum |
Basic Materials |
Misc. Fabricated Products |
0.0% |
-15.4% |
-91 |
-93 |
|
THO |
07/21/06 |
-3.5% |
Thor Industries, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Mobile Homes & RVs |
-6.6% |
-5.9% |
-87 |
-90 |
|
ASH |
07/21/06 |
-0.2% |
ASHLAND INC NEW |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-4.8% |
1.2% |
-68 |
-72 |
|
PHM |
08/04/06 |
-8.0% |
Pulte Homes, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-10.1% |
3.3% |
-54 |
-67 |
|
PCU |
07/21/06 |
3.4% |
Southern Copper Corporation |
Basic Materials |
Metal Mining |
-9.5% |
-0.2% |
-55 |
-67 |
|
EOG |
07/14/06 |
-2.9% |
EOG Resources, Inc. |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-8.1% |
-2.9% |
-50 |
-66 |
|
MTH |
08/04/06 |
-6.4% |
Meritage Homes Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-7.4% |
0.3% |
-63 |
-66 |
|
SPF |
07/14/06 |
0.8% |
Standard Pacific Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-6.4% |
0.8% |
-48 |
-56 |
|
OXY |
03/03/06 |
10.7% |
Occidental Petroleum Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-2.4% |
2.0% |
-41 |
-45 |
|
TBL |
07/07/06 |
1.2% |
The Timberland Company |
Consumer Cyclical |
Footwear |
-1.3% |
3.1% |
-27 |
-33 |
|
APA |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Apache Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
2.0% |
-25 |
-33 |
|
PETD |
07/07/06 |
15.0% |
Petroleum Development Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-6.1% |
20.9% |
-23 |
-28 |
|
AEOS |
03/10/06 |
18.3% |
American Eagle Outfitters |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-2.4% |
1.9% |
-24 |
-26 |
|
MVK |
07/21/06 |
0.8% |
Maverick Tube Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Construction - Supplies and Fixtures |
-0.1% |
1.2% |
-24 |
-23 |
|
BTI |
12/30/05 |
19.7% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Tobacco |
-1.9% |
7.8% |
-17 |
-22 |
|
NAT |
05/12/06 |
27.4% |
Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited |
Transportation |
Water Transportation |
-1.6% |
10.5% |
-29 |
-16 |
|
HDI |
10/14/05 |
15.7% |
Harley-Davidson, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Recreational Products |
-1.5% |
10.8% |
-26 |
-15 |
|
STR |
05/26/06 |
25.1% |
Questar Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-0.5% |
15.0% |
-13 |
-9 |
|
XOM |
08/04/06 |
1.5% |
ExxonMobil Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
0.0% |
7.4% |
-12 |
-8 |
Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H. A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3H
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
VVC |
03/03/06 |
4.4% |
Vectren Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-4.3% |
-0.5% |
-51 |
-92 |
|
ATG |
10/21/05 |
9.2% |
AGL Resources Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-9.0% |
-3.4% |
-86 |
-86 |
|
UGI |
12/30/05 |
19.2% |
UGI Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-4.3% |
0.4% |
-60 |
-78 |
|
OTTR |
06/09/06 |
4.7% |
Otter Tail Corporation |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-5.6% |
3.4% |
-36 |
-54 |
|
PGN |
01/10/05 |
-1.9% |
Progress Energy, Inc. |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-5.5% |
1.9% |
-29 |
-45 |
|
ATO |
04/01/05 |
6.1% |
Atmos Energy Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-4.0% |
1.7% |
-34 |
-43 |
|
SRE |
01/10/05 |
30.1% |
Sempra Energy |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-3.4% |
4.7% |
-35 |
-39 |
|
WGL |
12/23/05 |
-2.6% |
WGL Holdings, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-5.6% |
2.2% |
-27 |
-36 |
|
WPS |
05/26/06 |
4.4% |
WPS Resources Corp |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-2.8% |
3.5% |
-38 |
-35 |
|
EON |
03/10/06 |
11.8% |
E.ON AG (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-1.9% |
13.0% |
-14 |
-20 |
|
OKE |
11/11/05 |
44.3% |
ONEOK, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-0.9% |
8.6% |
0 |
-7 |
|
UU |
06/10/05 |
5.3% |
United Utilities PLC (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
0.0% |
10.2% |
-1 |
-1 |
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
John Templeton Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
WSO |
07/28/06 |
-5.4% |
Watsco, Incorporated |
Capital Goods |
Misc. Capital Goods |
-8.0% |
-18.6% |
-94 |
-95 |
|
USTR |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
United Stationers Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Office Supplies |
0.0% |
-1.1% |
-87 |
-94 |
|
HZO |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
MarineMax, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
0.0% |
-2.6% |
-88 |
-84 |
|
DHI |
07/14/06 |
-4.0% |
D.R. Horton Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-10.6% |
-4.0% |
-75 |
-83 |
|
PNR |
07/28/06 |
0.6% |
Pentair, Inc. |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-2.8% |
-9.8% |
-70 |
-73 |
|
IEX |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
IDEX Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Misc. Capital Goods |
0.0% |
-4.4% |
-65 |
-68 |
|
MIK |
12/30/05 |
19.9% |
Michaels Stores, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-0.9% |
0.8% |
-52 |
-58 |
|
HIBB |
07/21/06 |
5.6% |
Hibbett Sporting Goods, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-1.8% |
1.1% |
-51 |
-55 |
|
RYL |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
The Ryland Group, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
7.8% |
-38 |
-45 |
|
PETS |
07/07/06 |
6.8% |
PetMed Express, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Drugs) |
-5.9% |
13.3% |
-28 |
-40 |
|
EWBC |
12/30/05 |
8.1% |
East West Bancorp, Inc. |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-3.6% |
7.3% |
-37 |
-39 |
|
SPLS |
05/26/06 |
-1.8% |
Staples, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-5.4% |
3.4% |
-38 |
-29 |
|
GISX |
12/30/05 |
22.2% |
Global Imaging Systems, Inc. |
Technology |
Office Equipment |
-1.5% |
6.5% |
-13 |
-23 |
|
CHD |
11/18/05 |
12.0% |
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Personal & Household Products |
-1.4% |
5.7% |
-10 |
-23 |
|
GBCI |
05/05/06 |
0.3% |
Glacier Bancorp, Inc. |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-2.2% |
9.8% |
-21 |
-21 |
|
COH |
07/28/06 |
6.6% |
Coach, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Apparel/Accessories |
-0.6% |
13.5% |
-15 |
-17 |
|
BBBY |
07/21/06 |
6.5% |
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-0.8% |
9.5% |
-10 |
-16 |
|
HDI |
02/24/06 |
8.3% |
Harley-Davidson, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Recreational Products |
-1.5% |
-0.5% |
-26 |
-15 |
|
DGX |
08/19/05 |
23.2% |
Quest Diagnostics Incorporated |
Health Care |
Healthcare Facilities |
-0.6% |
6.2% |
-6 |
-14 |
|
JNJ |
02/17/06 |
7.4% |
Johnson & Johnson |
Health Care |
Major Drugs |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-5 |
-8 |
Optionable stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J.
Table 3J
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
BSC |
06/16/06 |
4.3% |
The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
-5.8% |
3.3% |
-40 |
-65 |
|
PCP |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Precision Castparts Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Aerospace and Defense |
0.0% |
4.5% |
-44 |
-52 |
|
ESI |
11/04/05 |
11.4% |
ITT Educational Services |
Services |
Schools |
-3.7% |
2.5% |
-43 |
-48 |
|
DHR |
07/21/06 |
1.1% |
Danaher Corporation |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
-3.4% |
3.3% |
-44 |
-44 |
|
SII |
04/28/06 |
2.6% |
Smith International, Inc. |
Energy |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-5.8% |
-4.5% |
-28 |
-41 |
|
MRO |
04/28/06 |
12.6% |
Marathon Oil Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-3.1% |
1.7% |
-19 |
-35 |
|
PCAR |
07/28/06 |
1.6% |
PACCAR Inc |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-1.4% |
6.0% |
-27 |
-35 |
|
MDU |
01/27/06 |
6.4% |
MDU Resources Group, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-1.9% |
5.8% |
-25 |
-32 |
|
GS |
06/16/06 |
4.9% |
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
-1.2% |
7.9% |
-27 |
-30 |
|
RL |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation |
Consumer Cyclical |
Apparel/Accessories |
0.0% |
17.3% |
-19 |
-28 |
|
WHQ |
07/14/06 |
4.4% |
W-H Energy Services, Inc. |
Energy |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-3.0% |
4.4% |
-13 |
-26 |
|
ERF |
05/05/06 |
6.7% |
ENERPLUS RESOURCES FUND SR G TR UNITS |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-2.0% |
4.3% |
-35 |
-24 |
|
BJS |
08/11/06 |
0.0% |
BJ Services Company |
Energy |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
0.0% |
3.5% |
-18 |
-22 |
|
FSH |
05/05/06 |
3.3% |
Fisher Scientific International Inc. |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
-1.2% |
9.9% |
-4 |
-6 |
|
TROW |
07/28/06 |
4.7% |
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
0.0% |
19.4% |
-2 |
-2 |
4.0 Results & Conclusions
This section highlights trading performance. Only a summary is provided here to save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the website.
|
Major Indices Year to Date |
Relative to SMA 200 |
200 Day High |
Relative to High |
50 Day Low |
Relative to Low |
||||
|
|
12/30/05 |
8/12/06 |
% Chg |
08/12/06 |
Prior Week |
||||
|
DOW |
10717.5 |
11,088.03 |
3.46% |
0.73% |
2.37% |
11642.7 |
-4.76% |
10706.1 |
3.57% |
|
NASDAQ |
2205.32 |
2,057.71 |
-6.69% |
-7.49% |
-5.97% |
2370.88 |
-13.21% |
2020.39 |
1.85% |
|
S&P500 |
1248.29 |
1,266.74 |
1.48% |
-0.34% |
0.93% |
1325.76 |
-4.45% |
1223.69 |
3.52% |
|
Russell 2K |
673.22 |
679.04 |
0.86% |
-4.59% |
-0.81% |
781.83 |
-13.15% |
671.94 |
1.06% |
|
NYSE |
7753.95 |
8163.28 |
5.28% |
1.57% |
3.15% |
8646.96 |
-5.59% |
7719.78 |
5.74% |
|
Average |
|
|
0.88% |
-2.03% |
-0.07% |
|
-8.23% |
|
3.15% |
4.1 Options Trading
Average Profit per Trade 1.4%
Average Hold Time 3.1 days
4.2 Stock Trading
|
Stock Trading for 2006 ($10.5K Initial Capital) |
||
|
Number of Closed trades in 2006 = |
12 |
|
|
Average Trade Size = |
$1,000.00 |
|
|
Total Closed Position Share costs = |
$12,000.00 |
|
|
Gross Profit on Closed Positions = |
$168.49 |
1.4% |
|
Number of Open Positions = |
3 |
|
|
Gross Profit on Open Positions = |
-$136.44 |
-4.5% |
|
Broker Commission ($9.99/trade) = |
-$269.73 |
|
|
Subscription Cost to date = |
-$80.00 |
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses = |
-$317.68 |
-3.0% |
|
Cash = |
$7,668.49 |
|
Appendix - Investment Conference Schedule
Below are links to conference registration sites where you can sign up.
- 09-24-06 through 09-25-06, Toronto Convention Center, Toronto, Canada, 2006 Toronto Resource Investment Conference, featuring leading junior resource, exploration and development and producing public companies, featuring companies that may be the index leaders of tomorrow with Canada's largest line-up of newsletter editors, analysts, mining executives and industry professionals.
- 01-21-07 through 01-22-07, Vancouver Convention & Exhibition Centre, Vancouver, BC, 2007 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, Featuring a world-class line-up of speakers, covering all types of direct investments in resource public companies, speculative investing, resource exploration, oil & gas, world outlook, investment strategies and more.
Conference Search