Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter
______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 94 September 17, 2006 Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0 Trading
Market volume is returning with an upbeat sentiment.
1.1 Upward Drift
This week, the S&P 500 in Figure 1A gained 1.2% and volume has returned. The market was upbeat due to weak inflation indicators such as the price of oil, energy in general and prices for metals and basic materials. Hourly earnings, the CPI and PCE deflator were in line to lower than expectations. All this leads to expectations that the FOMC will hold off on further rate hikes. Also supporting this view are recent reports that non-farm payrolls and productivity are consistent with an economy that is now growing at a more moderate and sustainable rate. Sentiment is clearly upbeat.
FIGURE 1A
|
© 2006 WiserTrader.com, LLC. Members of wisertrader.com are neither licensed brokers nor licensed advisors. Trades discussed represent recommendations made by the editor for the wisertrader.com portfolio. The newsletter and web site are for information only and should not be considered as personal advice. While it is believed that the posted information is factual, mistakes can be made in transcription. Investors should trade stocks only after verifying all information and consulting with a licensed broker or adviser. WiserTrader.commarkets third party trading systems but has no other affiliation with trading system companies. |
The NASDAQ in Figure 1B edged above its 200 day SMA, gaining 2.5% for the week. This is an encouraging sign. Semiconductor and Technology stocks were generally up this week. Biotechnology stocks were rather flat.
FIGURE 1B
As we proceed toward the end of the third quarter, a bit more volatility can be expected as institutional investors begin to readjust their portfolios. The coming month is notorious for seasonal weakness. Earnings warning season is again upon us.
|
Monitor an unlimited variety of market data in a single Excel window.
XLQPlus
Stocks, options and currency data are updated continuously from Yahoo and MSN based on the symbols that you enter. Data can be collected in historic, real time, delayed, and intraday quote formats. XLQPlus Interfaces with the AAII Stock Investor Pro database and is recommended by The Oxford Club, Investment U e-letter and The American Association of Individual Investors. It is simple to install. Download for a 45-day free evaluation. Order License for 1 year of upgrades and personalized support - $114 XLQPlus can be used as a stand-alone tool. However, I use it to import live market data into Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. Data is updated automatically for use in unlimited computations and charts. Several advanced spreadsheets are free to get you started. |
2.0 Market Analysis
Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A
Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month |
1 wk ago |
2 wks ago |
3 wks ago |
4 wks ago |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Index |
1.6% |
1.5% |
-0.6% |
1.6% |
-0.9% |
|
NASDAQ Composite Index |
3.3% |
3.2% |
-1.2% |
2.5% |
-1.1% |
|
S & P 500 Index |
1.3% |
1.6% |
-0.9% |
1.2% |
-0.6% |
|
NYSE Composite Index |
-0.2% |
0.8% |
-1.7% |
1.4% |
-0.7% |
|
Russell 2000 Index |
2.5% |
2.9% |
-1.8% |
3.2% |
-1.7% |
|
HGX, Phil. Housing Index |
3.6% |
5.8% |
-2.8% |
2.7% |
-1.8% |
|
IYR, Real Estate |
5.6% |
2.6% |
0.7% |
1.5% |
0.7% |
|
GLD, GOLD |
-6.0% |
-5.3% |
-2.4% |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
RKH, Banking |
0.9% |
2.0% |
-0.1% |
-0.2% |
-0.8% |
|
IYT, Transportation |
0.8% |
5.1% |
-2.6% |
2.0% |
-3.5% |
|
SMH, Semiconductors |
3.6% |
3.1% |
-1.6% |
3.3% |
-1.1% |
|
BBH, Biotechnology |
0.2% |
0.1% |
-0.7% |
2.0% |
-1.1% |
|
OIH, Oil Infrastructure |
-10.1% |
-4.7% |
-4.9% |
-1.2% |
0.5% |
|
XLE, Energy |
-9.8% |
-3.9% |
-4.5% |
-3.0% |
1.3% |
|
XLU, Utilities |
-1.7% |
-1.8% |
-1.3% |
1.4% |
-0.1% |
|
XLB, Materials |
-1.6% |
-1.8% |
-1.4% |
2.0% |
-0.3% |
|
XLI, Industrial |
0.6% |
1.7% |
-0.9% |
1.7% |
-1.8% |
|
XLK, Technology |
4.2% |
2.9% |
-0.9% |
2.6% |
-0.4% |
|
XLV, Healthcare |
2.6% |
1.3% |
-0.8% |
1.4% |
0.6% |
|
XLF, Financials |
1.8% |
2.1% |
-0.2% |
0.9% |
-0.9% |
|
XLP, Consumer Staples |
1.5% |
0.2% |
-0.5% |
1.7% |
0.2% |
|
XLY, Consumer Discretionary |
4.1% |
3.5% |
0.3% |
2.9% |
-2.6% |
The VIX and VXN volatility indexes are listed in Table 2B.
Table 2B
Volatility
|
Indicator |
Current |
Last Week |
2 Weeks Ago |
Complacent |
Cautious |
|
VIX ** |
13.2 |
13.2 |
12.0 |
< 20 |
> 50 |
|
VXN *** |
19.8 |
19.8 |
16.8 |
< 30 |
> 70 |
|
** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal. *** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal. |
|||||
Figure 2A compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s.
FIGURE 2A
Table 2C
Market Summary
Weekly Industry performance is based on the Yahoo Industry Classification System and Monthly Industry performance is based on the Dow Jones Classification System
Major Indices For the Past Week: Dow Jones +1.5% NASDAQ +3.2% S&P500 Index +1.6% Russell 2000 +2.9% NYSE +0.8% 30 Year Bond 4.919% 10 Year Note 4.798% Leading Industries For the Past Week: Lagging Industries For the Past Week: |
Leading Industries For the Past Month: Tires Recreational Services Hotels Forestry Automobiles Durable Household Products Home Construction Real Estate Holding & Develop Semiconductors Clothing & Accessories Lagging Industries For the Past Month: Coal Mining Gold Mining Exploration & Production Oil Equipment & Services Oil Equipment, Services & Dis. Oil & Gas Oil & Gas Producers Integrated Oil & Gas Platinum & Precious Metals Crude Oil $63.56 Gold for the past 30 days: USD -7.26% CAD -7.65% CHF -5.76% GBP -6.38% EUR -6.21% JPY -5.66% |
_________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders. The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.
Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.
One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence.
A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R. The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.
Watchlist performance is based on weekly closing prices on Friday. The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months. More information on filters is available on the web site.
A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter |
Avg. % Change Since Listed |
Avg. % Change Friday |
1 Month |
1 Week Ago |
2 weeks Ago |
3 Weeks Ago |
4 Weeks Ago |
|
Net Insider Buying |
6.9% |
-1.3% |
4.9% |
2.1% |
-3.9% |
4.1% |
3.0% |
|
Cash Rich Companies |
5.5% |
-1.7% |
6.1% |
-1.3% |
0.5% |
5.8% |
0.9% |
|
Price to Free Cash Flow |
6.9% |
-0.9% |
2.4% |
0.3% |
2.5% |
1.5% |
-1.7% |
|
Growth Momentum |
2.1% |
1.2% |
-0.6% |
3.0% |
-2.8% |
1.3% |
-2.0% |
|
Lynch |
22.6% |
0.8% |
6.9% |
2.0% |
-0.8% |
4.7% |
0.6% |
|
Buffett |
5.7% |
0.4% |
0.7% |
2.5% |
-1.8% |
3.4% |
-3.0% |
|
Graham |
12.3% |
0.0% |
-0.6% |
0.2% |
-1.7% |
2.1% |
-1.1% |
|
Templeton |
9.2% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
4.0% |
-0.8% |
2.5% |
-4.4% |
|
Zweig |
6.6% |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
2.2% |
-0.8% |
1.2% |
-2.4% |
|
Average |
8.7% |
-0.1% |
2.3% |
1.7% |
-1.1% |
3.0% |
-1.1% |
Key
|
Passed Recent Filter |
|
Price declined by half of stop loss setting |
|
Oversold based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
|
Overbought based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
TWI |
06/16/06 |
-7.0% |
Titan International, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Parts |
-12.1% |
-5.9% |
-73 |
-95 |
|
ULBI |
08/18/06 |
-4.0% |
Ultralife Batteries, Inc. |
Technology |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
-9.0% |
-4.0% |
-91 |
-92 |
|
CYTX |
09/08/06 |
2.0% |
Cytori Therapeutics Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-6.3% |
2.0% |
-74 |
-77 |
|
VLNC |
08/04/06 |
14.8% |
Valence Technology, Inc. |
Technology |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
-14.3% |
3.9% |
-60 |
-63 |
|
DWRI |
09/15/06 |
0.0% |
Design Within Reach, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Furniture & Fixtures |
0.0% |
3.3% |
-8 |
-42 |
|
PHRM |
07/07/06 |
6.5% |
Pharmion Corporation |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-5.8% |
3.4% |
-32 |
-39 |
|
MSN |
07/07/06 |
1.0% |
Emerson Radio Corp. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Audio & Video Equipment |
-0.3% |
3.6% |
-62 |
-34 |
|
SGEN |
09/08/06 |
3.8% |
Seattle Genetics, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-4.0% |
10.3% |
-10 |
-25 |
|
TELK |
08/04/06 |
7.1% |
Telik, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-2.1% |
4.1% |
-29 |
-20 |
|
MOBE |
08/11/06 |
36.9% |
Mobility Electronics, Inc. |
Technology |
Computer Peripherals |
-6.5% |
0.9% |
-15 |
-19 |
|
PLB |
07/21/06 |
-2.0% |
American Italian Pasta Company |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Food Processing |
-3.9% |
0.0% |
-19 |
-19 |
|
APN |
09/08/06 |
23.8% |
Applica Incorporated |
Consumer Cyclical |
Appliances & Tools |
-3.1% |
23.8% |
-7 |
-19 |
Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
SCIX |
04/07/06 |
10.0% |
Scailex Corp., Ltd. |
Technology |
Computer Networks |
-9.2% |
-8.1% |
-75 |
-95 |
|
WSC |
03/11/06 |
3.7% |
Wesco Financial Corporation |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-2.8% |
0.3% |
-56 |
-58 |
|
LTON |
09/08/06 |
-1.8% |
Linktone Ltd. (ADR) |
Technology |
Computer Services |
-9.7% |
24.4% |
-25 |
-36 |
|
EXAR |
07/28/06 |
10.3% |
Exar Corporation |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
0.0% |
7.7% |
-11 |
-9 |
Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5. Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.
Table 3D
Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
MFW |
08/18/06 |
-3.7% |
M & F Worldwide Corp. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Beverages (Non-Alcoholic) |
-3.7% |
0.9% |
-86 |
-80 |
|
F |
07/21/06 |
27.7% |
FORD MOTOR |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-12.7% |
-8.6% |
-17 |
-62 |
|
FNLY |
09/08/06 |
-1.3% |
Finlay Enterprises, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Jewelry & Silverware |
-1.3% |
-1.3% |
-44 |
-44 |
|
FIS |
08/18/06 |
-0.4% |
Fidelity National Information Services |
Services |
Business Services |
-2.4% |
-2.4% |
-33 |
-39 |
|
FD |
08/11/06 |
16.8% |
Federated Department Str. |
Services |
Retail (Department & Discount) |
-0.3% |
6.1% |
-4 |
-6 |
|
RHD |
07/14/06 |
3.1% |
R.H. Donnelley Corp. |
Services |
Advertising |
0.0% |
0.7% |
-11 |
-4 |
|
TGS |
08/11/06 |
4.8% |
Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A (ADR) |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
2.7% |
-24 |
-3 |
|
MNT |
08/11/06 |
9.7% |
Mentor Corporation |
Health Care |
Medical Equipment & Supplies |
0.0% |
2.4% |
-8 |
-2 |
|
Y |
08/11/06 |
4.8% |
Alleghany Corporation |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
0.0% |
2.1% |
-4 |
0 |
For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
AZN |
02/03/06 |
33.0% |
AstraZeneca PLC (ADR) |
Health Care |
Major Drugs |
-4.8% |
-1.1% |
-44 |
-58 |
|
PKX |
08/11/06 |
3.6% |
POSCO (ADR) |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
-3.3% |
0.6% |
-64 |
-48 |
|
SKM |
08/25/06 |
5.9% |
SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (ADR) |
Services |
Communications Services |
0.0% |
2.4% |
-2 |
-10 |
|
BTI |
08/12/05 |
41.2% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Tobacco |
0.0% |
3.1% |
-9 |
-7 |
|
VIP |
08/18/06 |
29.4% |
Vimpel-Communications (ADR) |
Services |
Communications Services |
0.0% |
29.4% |
-5 |
-4 |
For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3F
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
ENDP |
02/17/06 |
5.2% |
Endo Pharmaceuticals |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-8.7% |
0.4% |
-75 |
-57 |
|
PPDI |
08/04/06 |
-1.4% |
Pharmaceutical Product Development, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-4.7% |
2.9% |
-52 |
-51 |
|
CSE |
08/04/06 |
-0.4% |
CapitalSource, Inc. |
Financial |
Misc. Financial Services |
-0.5% |
0.0% |
-24 |
-10 |
|
GS |
08/18/06 |
5.2% |
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
0.0% |
8.6% |
-4 |
-6 |
The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term. Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
STR |
05/26/06 |
10.2% |
Questar Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-12.3% |
-11.5% |
-96 |
-100 |
|
APA |
08/11/06 |
-8.9% |
Apache Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-8.9% |
-7.4% |
-89 |
-94 |
|
PETD |
07/07/06 |
7.1% |
Petroleum Development Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-12.5% |
-4.3% |
-97 |
-93 |
|
XOM |
08/04/06 |
-5.9% |
ExxonMobil Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-8.6% |
-6.4% |
-92 |
-92 |
|
RS |
08/11/06 |
-6.0% |
Reliance Steel & Aluminum |
Basic Materials |
Misc. Fabricated Products |
-10.7% |
-7.8% |
-78 |
-81 |
|
PCU |
07/21/06 |
4.7% |
Southern Copper Corporation |
Basic Materials |
Metal Mining |
-8.4% |
-0.3% |
-85 |
-79 |
|
MVK |
07/21/06 |
1.4% |
Maverick Tube Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Construction - Supplies and Fixtures |
-0.2% |
0.4% |
-53 |
-63 |
|
THO |
07/21/06 |
-2.8% |
Thor Industries, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Mobile Homes & RVs |
-5.9% |
-0.1% |
-43 |
-54 |
|
ASH |
07/21/06 |
-1.3% |
ASHLAND INC NEW |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-5.8% |
-4.5% |
-41 |
-52 |
|
CRDN |
08/11/06 |
1.7% |
Ceradyne, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Aerospace and Defense |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-69 |
-38 |
|
SPF |
07/14/06 |
7.7% |
Standard Pacific Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-1.7% |
-0.8% |
-34 |
-24 |
|
KSWS |
09/15/06 |
0.0% |
K-Swiss Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Footwear |
0.0% |
2.2% |
-21 |
-23 |
|
TBL |
07/07/06 |
11.4% |
The Timberland Company |
Consumer Cyclical |
Footwear |
-2.5% |
6.8% |
-23 |
-23 |
|
CCRT |
09/08/06 |
11.1% |
CompuCredit Corporation |
Financial |
Consumer Financial Services |
0.0% |
7.2% |
-23 |
-19 |
|
PHM |
08/04/06 |
5.2% |
Pulte Homes, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
7.0% |
-13 |
-18 |
|
DHI |
09/15/06 |
0.0% |
D.R. Horton Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
10.9% |
-1 |
-17 |
|
AEOS |
03/10/06 |
43.2% |
American Eagle Outfitters |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-1.3% |
11.2% |
-6 |
-8 |
|
BTI |
12/30/05 |
26.3% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Tobacco |
0.0% |
3.1% |
-9 |
-7 |
|
MTH |
08/04/06 |
4.8% |
Meritage Homes Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
2.5% |
-18 |
-4 |
|
ANF |
09/08/06 |
4.6% |
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
0.0% |
6.6% |
-5 |
-3 |
Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H. A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3H
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
OKE |
11/11/05 |
38.6% |
ONEOK, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-4.8% |
-3.9% |
-66 |
-100 |
|
PGN |
01/10/05 |
-2.0% |
Progress Energy, Inc. |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-5.6% |
-2.0% |
-87 |
-91 |
|
ATG |
10/21/05 |
6.5% |
AGL Resources Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-11.2% |
-1.6% |
-74 |
-81 |
|
UGI |
12/30/05 |
17.1% |
UGI Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-6.0% |
-3.0% |
-64 |
-75 |
|
VVC |
03/03/06 |
2.8% |
Vectren Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-5.8% |
-2.1% |
-83 |
-74 |
|
ATO |
04/01/05 |
5.0% |
Atmos Energy Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-5.0% |
-2.3% |
-59 |
-56 |
|
WPS |
05/26/06 |
3.2% |
WPS Resources Corp |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-3.9% |
-1.3% |
-66 |
-51 |
|
EON |
03/10/06 |
14.7% |
E.ON AG (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-2.0% |
-0.9% |
-40 |
-43 |
|
SRE |
01/10/05 |
36.8% |
Sempra Energy |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-0.8% |
3.7% |
-34 |
-19 |
|
UU |
06/10/05 |
8.3% |
United Utilities PLC (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-0.5% |
2.4% |
-18 |
-18 |
|
OTTR |
06/09/06 |
13.4% |
Otter Tail Corporation |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-0.5% |
2.1% |
-31 |
-17 |
|
WGL |
12/23/05 |
2.7% |
WGL Holdings, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-0.5% |
2.0% |
-2 |
-9 |
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
John Templeton Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
PNR |
07/28/06 |
0.2% |
Pentair, Inc. |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-5.1% |
-3.8% |
-93 |
-91 |
|
USTR |
08/11/06 |
-0.3% |
United Stationers Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Office Supplies |
-4.0% |
-3.0% |
-56 |
-65 |
|
JNJ |
02/17/06 |
8.0% |
Johnson & Johnson |
Health Care |
Major Drugs |
-1.9% |
0.3% |
-67 |
-64 |
|
CHS |
09/15/06 |
0.0% |
Chico's FAS, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
0.0% |
-17.0% |
-65 |
-61 |
|
THO |
08/25/06 |
4.6% |
Thor Industries, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Mobile Homes & RVs |
-3.9% |
-0.1% |
-43 |
-54 |
|
DGX |
08/19/05 |
25.3% |
Quest Diagnostics Incorporated |
Health Care |
Healthcare Facilities |
-2.6% |
0.2% |
-61 |
-53 |
|
GISX |
12/30/05 |
23.5% |
Global Imaging Systems, Inc. |
Technology |
Office Equipment |
-3.4% |
-0.4% |
-46 |
-50 |
|
IEX |
08/11/06 |
0.9% |
IDEX Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Misc. Capital Goods |
-3.3% |
2.9% |
-43 |
-49 |
|
EWBC |
12/30/05 |
9.3% |
East West Bancorp, Inc. |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-2.5% |
-0.9% |
-49 |
-48 |
|
WSM |
09/01/06 |
8.1% |
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-0.3% |
-7.1% |
-43 |
-45 |
|
HAR |
08/18/06 |
-4.0% |
Harman International Industries Inc./DE/ |
Consumer Cyclical |
Audio & Video Equipment |
-4.0% |
-4.0% |
-54 |
-41 |
|
CHD |
11/18/05 |
15.0% |
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Personal & Household Products |
-1.5% |
2.6% |
-38 |
-32 |
|
WSO |
07/28/06 |
-0.4% |
Watsco, Incorporated |
Capital Goods |
Misc. Capital Goods |
-3.2% |
-2.3% |
-34 |
-30 |
|
SPF |
09/15/06 |
0.0% |
Standard Pacific Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
-0.8% |
-34 |
-24 |
|
RYL |
08/11/06 |
13.8% |
The Ryland Group, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
3.5% |
-11 |
-22 |
|
MIK |
12/30/05 |
22.1% |
Michaels Stores, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-0.4% |
1.1% |
-12 |
-19 |
|
DHI |
07/14/06 |
14.8% |
D.R. Horton Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
10.9% |
-1 |
-17 |
|
LOW |
09/08/06 |
7.7% |
Lowe's Companies, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Home Improvement) |
0.0% |
7.7% |
-16 |
-16 |
|
HHS |
08/18/06 |
1.4% |
Harte-Hanks, Inc. |
Services |
Printing & Publishing |
-0.3% |
1.4% |
-23 |
-14 |
|
UNH |
08/25/06 |
2.6% |
UnitedHealth Group Inc. |
Financial |
Insurance (Accident & Health) |
-0.6% |
5.5% |
-15 |
-9 |
|
SPLS |
05/26/06 |
4.3% |
Staples, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-0.1% |
5.3% |
-16 |
-7 |
|
GBCI |
05/05/06 |
6.3% |
Glacier Bancorp, Inc. |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
0.0% |
1.4% |
-17 |
-7 |
|
HZO |
08/11/06 |
16.4% |
MarineMax, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-0.1% |
5.9% |
-10 |
-6 |
|
HIBB |
07/21/06 |
31.0% |
Hibbett Sporting Goods, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-1.2% |
5.2% |
-3 |
-6 |
|
ORLY |
09/01/06 |
3.9% |
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
0.0% |
7.5% |
-5 |
-5 |
|
BBBY |
07/21/06 |
14.4% |
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
0.0% |
4.7% |
-3 |
-5 |
|
COH |
07/28/06 |
20.3% |
Coach, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Apparel/Accessories |
0.0% |
8.2% |
-5 |
-4 |
Optionable stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J.
Table 3J
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
MDU |
01/27/06 |
-0.3% |
MDU Resources Group, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-8.9% |
-8.9% |
-100 |
-93 |
|
PCAR |
07/28/06 |
0.7% |
PACCAR Inc |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-7.2% |
-5.6% |
-70 |
-82 |
|
IO |
08/25/06 |
-2.6% |
Input/Output, Inc. |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
-6.7% |
-4.7% |
-62 |
-80 |
|
PCP |
08/11/06 |
-1.0% |
Precision Castparts Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Aerospace and Defense |
-5.7% |
-5.0% |
-73 |
-75 |
|
BSC |
06/16/06 |
4.2% |
The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
-5.8% |
-2.2% |
-31 |
-45 |
|
ESI |
11/04/05 |
14.1% |
ITT Educational Services |
Services |
Schools |
-1.4% |
1.6% |
-17 |
-23 |
|
DHR |
07/21/06 |
6.4% |
Danaher Corporation |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
-0.8% |
2.0% |
-30 |
-19 |
|
RL |
08/11/06 |
12.6% |
Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation |
Consumer Cyclical |
Apparel/Accessories |
-0.8% |
8.2% |
-17 |
-9 |
|
GS |
06/16/06 |
13.0% |
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
0.0% |
5.2% |
-4 |
-6 |
|
TROW |
07/28/06 |
17.4% |
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
0.0% |
8.0% |
-4 |
-4 |
|
FSH |
05/05/06 |
8.4% |
Fisher Scientific International Inc. |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
0.0% |
1.6% |
-7 |
-2 |
4.0 Results & Conclusions
This section highlights trading performance. Only a summary is provided here to save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the website.
|
Major Indices Year to Date |
Relative to SMA 200 |
200 Day High |
Relative to High |
50 Day Low |
Relative to Low |
||||
|
|
12/30/05 |
9/16/06 |
% Chg |
09/16/06 |
Prior Week |
||||
|
DOW |
10717.5 |
11,560.77 |
7.87% |
4.15% |
2.28% |
11642.7 |
-0.70% |
10739.3 |
7.65% |
|
NASDAQ |
2205.32 |
2,235.59 |
1.37% |
0.57% |
-3.09% |
2370.88 |
-5.71% |
2020.39 |
10.65% |
|
S&P500 |
1248.29 |
1,319.87 |
5.73% |
3.12% |
1.24% |
1325.76 |
-0.44% |
1234.49 |
6.92% |
|
Russell 2K |
673.22 |
729.35 |
8.34% |
1.57% |
-1.41% |
781.83 |
-6.71% |
671.94 |
8.54% |
|
NYSE |
7753.95 |
8363.45 |
7.86% |
2.78% |
2.13% |
8646.96 |
-3.28% |
7892.87 |
5.96% |
|
Average |
|
|
6.23% |
2.44% |
0.23% |
|
-3.37% |
|
7.94% |
4.1 Options Trading
Average Profit per Trade -1.7%
Average Ho