Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter
______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 103 November 27, 2006 Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0 Trading
Conventional wisdom concerning the effect of major indices on stock prices might need to be updated. The major indices gained an average of 0.2% this week.
|
Index |
Last Week |
This Week |
% Change |
|
DOW |
12342.50 |
12280.17 |
-0.5% |
|
NASDAQ |
2445.86 |
2460.26 |
0.6% |
|
S&P 500 |
1401.20 |
1400.95 |
0.0% |
|
Russell 2K |
788.47 |
792.28 |
0.5% |
|
NYSE |
8897.17 |
8933.43 |
0.4% |
|
Average |
|
|
0.19% |
1.1 Nervousness
The S&P 500 in Figure 1A was flat this week. It was a slow week with little new data but lots of merger activity. The market leaves Thanksgiving with its focus on holiday consumer spending. Traders appear to be looking for an excuse to take profits, such as weal retail activity or any negative news in general. Market breadth began the week low, peaked at mid-week and dropped off on Friday. The average Williams-%R for the above five indices is overbought at -18. The 200-day moving average is -37, significantly high.
FIGURE 1A
The NASDAQ in Figure 1B gained 0.6% for the week, still at a new multiyear high. Materials, gold and oil had gains while the other major sectors were flat to down.
FIGURE 1B
1.2 Correlation with Major Averages
Conventional wisdom has it that 40 to 50% of a stocks movement can be attributed to the major averages. This implies some kind of statistical correlation that should be of the highest interest to short-term, as well as, long term traders. A recent study finds that the degree of correlation between stock price movement and the major averages can change dramatically over a one-month period. More significantly, the correlation between stocks and the major averages over the most recent one-month period is significantly lower than conventional wisdom dictates.
The sample correlation coefficient measures the statistical correspondence between two samples of data. In this case each stock’s Williams-%R is compared with the average Williams-%R for the 5 major indices over the most recent eleven day period. When the two sets of numbers closely correspond, a change in one set of numbers is reflected by a similar change in the other and the percentage correlation is close to 100%, as seen in Figure 1C for PCH. When they are not correlated, the percentage correlation is near 0%, as seen in Figure 1D for CHK. When they are negatively correlated, a change in one set of numbers is reflected by an opposite change in the other and the percentage correlation is near -100%, as seen in Figure 1E for CNI.
FIGURE 1C
FIGURE 1D
FIGURE 1E
Investigation of the average eleven-day correlation over a one-month period has proved interesting. The group of stocks analyzed consisted of optionable stocks listed on the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges having a price of at least $30. It was found over a one-month period that the correlation between stock price and the major indices varied from 20% to as much as 190%. The average variation was 81.8%. Average one-month correlations between this group of stocks and the major indices are shown in Figure 1F.
FIGURE 1F
|
Avg. % Corr. |
% of Stocks |
# of Stocks |
|
< 0% |
9.9% |
89 |
|
0 to 10% |
15.1% |
136 |
|
10 to 20% |
19.1% |
172 |
|
20 to 30% |
21.1% |
190 |
|
30 to 40% |
17.4% |
157 |
|
40 to 50% |
11.0% |
99 |
|
50 to 60% |
5.5% |
50 |
|
60 to 70% |
0.8% |
7 |
|
70 to 80% |
0.2% |
2 |
|
80 to 90% |
0.0% |
0 |
|
90 to 100% |
0.0% |
0 |
|
Total |
100.0% |
902 |
The average percentage correlation was negative for 10% of the stocks. Another 15% of stocks had an average percentage correlation of less than 10%. Only 17% of the stocks had an average percentage correlation of more than 40%. The vast majority or 57.6% of stocks had an average percentage correlation between 10 and 40%, with two thirds of these having an average percentage correlation of less than 30%. Over the past month, this group of 902 stocks had an average correlation with the major indices of only 22%. In other words, only 22% of a stock’s movement over the past month can be attributed to the major averages. Conventional wisdom breaks down in this case.
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2.0 Market Analysis
Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A
Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month |
1 wk ago |
2 wks ago |
3 wks ago |
4 wks ago |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Index |
1.6% |
-0.5% |
1.9% |
1.0% |
-0.9% |
|
NASDAQ Composite Index |
4.7% |
0.6% |
2.3% |
2.5% |
-0.8% |
|
S & P 500 Index |
1.7% |
0.0% |
1.5% |
1.2% |
-0.9% |
|
NYSE Composite Index |
1.7% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
1.3% |
-0.7% |
|
Russell 2000 Index |
3.5% |
0.5% |
2.5% |
2.2% |
-1.7% |
|
HGX, Phil. Housing Index |
3.5% |
0.7% |
5.2% |
0.7% |
-3.0% |
|
IYR, Real Estate |
5.4% |
5.7% |
1.8% |
0.8% |
-2.9% |
|
GLD, GOLD |
6.9% |
2.8% |
-1.1% |
0.3% |
4.9% |
|
RKH, Banking |
-0.1% |
-0.8% |
0.2% |
1.5% |
-1.1% |
|
IYT, Transportation |
2.1% |
-0.1% |
2.4% |
2.7% |
-2.9% |
|
SMH, Semiconductors |
5.5% |
0.2% |
5.0% |
1.9% |
-1.8% |
|
BBH, Biotechnology |
-2.1% |
-1.4% |
1.1% |
-0.2% |
-1.6% |
|
OIH, Oil Infrastructure |
4.1% |
2.5% |
-0.5% |
1.2% |
0.8% |
|
XLE, Energy |
2.4% |
0.8% |
-0.6% |
1.5% |
0.8% |
|
XLU, Utilities |
1.2% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.9% |
-0.5% |
|
XLB, Materials |
5.1% |
3.7% |
0.4% |
1.3% |
-0.3% |
|
XLI, Industrial |
3.6% |
0.2% |
2.6% |
1.7% |
-1.0% |
|
XLK, Technology |
4.4% |
0.5% |
2.4% |
2.0% |
-0.6% |
|
XLV, Healthcare |
-1.8% |
-0.6% |
2.2% |
-1.8% |
-1.7% |
|
XLF, Financials |
1.7% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
2.0% |
-1.0% |
|
XLP, Consumer Staples |
-0.9% |
-0.6% |
1.3% |
0.3% |
-1.9% |
|
XLY, Consumer Discretionary |
2.4% |
-0.4% |
2.1% |
2.0% |
-1.2% |
The volatility indexes and put/call ratio are listed in Table 2B.
Table 2B
Sentiment
|
Indicator |
Current |
Last Week |
2 Weeks Ago |
Complacent |
Cautious |
|
VIX ** |
10.7 |
10.1 |
10.8 |
< 20 |
> 50 |
|
VXN *** |
15.6 |
15.3 |
15.5 |
< 30 |
> 70 |
|
CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio (Contrarian View) |
0.53 |
0.47 |
0.73 |
< 0.55 (Mkt. Top) |
> 0.70 (Mkt. Bottom) |
|
** At 20 day SMA = No short-term signal. *** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal. |
|||||
Figure 2A compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s.
FIGURE 2A
Table 2C
Market Summary
Industry performance is based on the Yahoo Industry Classification System
Major Indices For the Past Week: Dow Jones -0.5% NASDAQ +0.6% S&P500 Index 0.0% Russell 2000 +0.5% NYSE +0.4% 30 Year Bond 4.629% 10 Year Note 4.548% FOMC Rate 5.250% Leading Industries For the Past Week: Lagging Industries For the Past Week: |
Leading Industries For the Past Month: Lagging Industries For the Past Month: Crude Oil $59.90 Gold for the past 30 days: USD +8.63% CAD +69.42% CHF +3.75% GBP +5.51% EUR +4.38% JPY +5.56% |
_________________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________________
3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders. The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.
Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.
One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence.
A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R. The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.
Watchlist performance is based on weekly closing prices on Friday. The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months. More information on filters is available on the web site.
A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter |
Avg. % Change Since Listed |
Avg. % Change Friday |
1 Month |
1 Week Ago |
2 weeks Ago |
3 Weeks Ago |
4 Weeks Ago |
|
Net Insider Buying |
8.7% |
1.0% |
3.2% |
1.3% |
1.1% |
2.1% |
-1.4% |
|
Cash Rich Companies |
6.2% |
0.0% |
9.4% |
-1.3% |
5.0% |
3.0% |
2.5% |
|
Price to Free Cash Flow |
12.9% |
0.4% |
2.7% |
-0.9% |
3.8% |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
Growth Momentum |
10.4% |
0.1% |
6.3% |
1.2% |
3.2% |
1.5% |
0.2% |
|
Lynch |
26.5% |
0.3% |
3.8% |
1.9% |
0.6% |
-0.9% |
2.2% |
|
Buffett |
12.9% |
0.0% |
3.1% |
1.6% |
0.4% |
2.6% |
-1.5% |
|
Graham |
21.0% |
0.3% |
3.5% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
2.1% |
-0.5% |
|
Templeton |
13.8% |
-0.3% |
1.3% |
-0.4% |
2.8% |
1.8% |
-2.8% |
|
Zweig |
10.7% |
-0.1% |
3.9% |
0.3% |
1.8% |
1.8% |
-0.2% |
|
Average |
13.7% |
0.2% |
4.1% |
0.5% |
2.2% |
1.6% |
-0.2% |
Key
|
Passed Recent Filter |
|
Price declined by half of stop loss setting |
|
Oversold based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
|
Overbought based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
DWRI |
09/15/06 |
-8.9% |
Design Within Reach, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Furniture & Fixtures |
-14.3% |
-1.4% |
-96 |
-81 |
|
APN |
09/08/06 |
24.7% |
Applica Incorporated |
Consumer Cyclical |
Appliances & Tools |
-4.1% |
-1.4% |
-62 |
-76 |
|
PBY |
10/06/06 |
-1.7% |
The Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-7.7% |
-5.7% |
-49 |
-57 |
|
CYTX |
11/03/06 |
9.4% |
Cytori Therapeutics Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-5.3% |
1.8% |
-73 |
-54 |
|
EIHI |
10/20/06 |
2.3% |
Eastern Insurance Holdings,Inc. |
Financial |
Insurance (Life) |
-4.1% |
-2.4% |
-53 |
-52 |
|
GETI |
10/20/06 |
3.6% |
GenTek Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Parts |
-4.1% |
-1.4% |
-34 |
-40 |
|
HIFN |
11/24/06 |
0.0% |
hi/fn, inc. |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
0.0% |
3.0% |
-37 |
-33 |
|
SGEN |
09/08/06 |
25.5% |
Seattle Genetics, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-4.8% |
8.4% |
-39 |
-33 |
|
MSN |
07/07/06 |
8.3% |
Emerson Radio Corp. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Audio & Video Equipment |
-1.7% |
15.4% |
-46 |
-30 |
|
MOBE |
11/24/06 |
0.0% |
Mobility Electronics, Inc. |
Technology |
Computer Peripherals |
0.0% |
6.7% |
-21 |
-14 |
|
MAG |
10/06/06 |
35.1% |
Magnetek, Inc. |
Technology |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
-1.6% |
0.4% |
-4 |
-9 |
|
PYX |
10/13/06 |
5.8% |
Playtex Products, Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Personal & Household Products |
-0.2% |
7.8% |
-2 |
-2 |
Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
EXAR |
07/28/06 |
6.2% |
Exar Corporation |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
-3.7% |
9.4% |
-22 |
-22 |
Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5. Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.
Table 3D
Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
TGS |
11/10/06 |
0.3% |
Transportadora de Gas del Sur S.A (ADR) |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-0.2% |
1.5% |
-88 |
-66 |
|
F |
07/21/06 |
35.7% |
FORD MOTOR |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-7.3% |
-4.2% |
-42 |
-49 |
|
LNX |
10/13/06 |
7.7% |
Lenox Group Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Personal & Household Products |
-3.1% |
2.2% |
-73 |
-39 |
|
FIS |
08/18/06 |
12.2% |
Fidelity National Information Services |
Services |
Business Services |
-2.9% |
-1.6% |
-34 |
-37 |
|
FNLY |
09/08/06 |
8.5% |
Finlay Enterprises, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Jewelry & Silverware |
-3.7% |
-2.5% |
-10 |
-25 |
For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
AZN |
02/03/06 |
22.5% |
AstraZeneca plc (ADR) |
Health Care |
Major Drugs |
-13.5% |
-3.0% |
-96 |
-95 |
|
NAT |
11/17/06 |
0.8% |
Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited |
Transportation |
Water Transportation |
0.0% |
-2.7% |
-85 |
-74 |
|
SKM |
08/25/06 |
20.6% |
SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (ADR) |
Services |
Communications Services |
-1.2% |
7.4% |
-6 |
-12 |
|
VIP |
08/18/06 |
45.1% |
Vimpel-Communications (ADR) |
Services |
Communications Services |
0.0% |
7.9% |
-10 |
-7 |
|
BTI |
08/12/05 |
39.9% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Tobacco |
-1.9% |
2.4% |
-8 |
-4 |
|
PKX |
08/11/06 |
29.8% |
POSCO (ADR) |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
0.0% |
10.7% |
-1 |
-2 |
For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3F
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
CSE |
08/04/06 |
10.3% |
CapitalSource, Inc. |
Financial |
Misc. Financial Services |
-3.4% |
0.8% |
-57 |
-56 |
|
IO |
10/06/06 |
6.5% |
Input/Output, Inc. |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
-7.7% |
-2.5% |
-63 |
-53 |
|
APH |
10/20/06 |
1.7% |
Amphenol Corporation |
Technology |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
-0.8% |
1.3% |
-24 |
-29 |
|
VSEA |
10/27/06 |
12.8% |
Varian Semiconductor |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
-2.1% |
0.6% |
-11 |
-15 |
|
LRCX |
10/13/06 |
7.7% |
Lam Research Corporation |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
-1.7% |
2.4% |
-13 |
-14 |
|
ADS |
10/20/06 |
6.1% |
Alliance Data Systems |
Technology |
Computer Services |
-1.0% |
-1.0% |
-3 |
-8 |
|
GS |
08/18/06 |
30.3% |
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
-0.3% |
3.4% |
-1 |
-7 |
|
MDR |
11/03/06 |
7.9% |
McDermott International |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
4.7% |
-5 |
-2 |
The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term. Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
PETD |
07/07/06 |
14.1% |
Petroleum Development Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-11.0% |
-10.8% |
-86 |
-93 |
|
ANF |
09/08/06 |
8.5% |
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-10.7% |
-8.9% |
-85 |
-93 |
|
NAT |
11/10/06 |
-1.9% |
Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited |
Transportation |
Water Transportation |
-1.9% |
-2.7% |
-85 |
-74 |
|
APA |
11/24/06 |
0.0% |
Apache Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
-2.0% |
-71 |
-69 |
|
PCU |
07/21/06 |
24.2% |
Southern Copper Corporation |
Basic Materials |
Metal Mining |
-8.6% |
1.9% |
-64 |
-60 |
|
SPF |
07/14/06 |
6.3% |
Standard Pacific Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-12.0% |
-3.2% |
-53 |
-60 |
|
JOSB |
09/22/06 |
3.3% |
Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-6.1% |
2.3% |
-55 |
-55 |
|
OSK |
11/03/06 |
8.1% |
Oshkosh Truck Corporation |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-0.6% |
-4.0% |
-50 |
-53 |
|
JBHT |
09/22/06 |
10.7% |
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. |
Transportation |
Trucking |
-4.2% |
1.4% |
-52 |
-52 |
|
THO |
07/21/06 |
4.9% |
Thor Industries, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Mobile Homes & RVs |
-5.9% |
-0.1% |
-40 |
-45 |
|
MTH |
08/04/06 |
9.4% |
Meritage Homes Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-5.4% |
-2.7% |
-36 |
-45 |
|
KSWS |
09/15/06 |
19.0% |
K-Swiss Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Footwear |
-7.1% |
-1.4% |
-46 |
-44 |
|
OXY |
11/24/06 |
0.0% |
Occidental Petroleum Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
0.5% |
-43 |
-43 |
|
XOM |
08/04/06 |
5.4% |
Exxon Mobil Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-3.2% |
1.3% |
-33 |
-41 |
|
AEOS |
03/10/06 |
61.5% |
American Eagle Outfitters |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-1.6% |
4.1% |
-31 |
-37 |
|
ALD |
10/13/06 |
1.7% |
Allied Capital Corporation |
Financial |
Investment Services |
-1.8% |
0.4% |
-47 |
-36 |
|
UNT |
11/17/06 |
1.6% |
Unit Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-0.1% |
6.4% |
-35 |
-33 |
|
BJS |
11/03/06 |
4.2% |
BJ Services Company |
Energy |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-2.5% |
1.5% |
-28 |
-32 |
|
NUE |
09/22/06 |
25.3% |
Nucor Corporation |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
-4.5% |
0.8% |
-26 |
-32 |
|
STR |
05/26/06 |
18.5% |
Questar Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-5.7% |
2.4% |
-34 |
-28 |
|
EOG |
11/10/06 |
3.0% |
EOG Resources, Inc. |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-0.1% |
2.1% |
-23 |
-25 |
|
RS |
08/11/06 |
15.6% |
Reliance Steel & Aluminum |
Basic Materials |
Misc. Fabricated Products |
-1.2% |
10.0% |
-19 |
-22 |
|
TBL |
07/07/06 |
23.6% |
The Timberland Company |
Consumer Cyclical |
Footwear |
-3.7% |
13.7% |
-19 |
-21 |
|
IMO |
10/06/06 |
14.1% |
IMPERIAL OIL LTD |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-3.0% |
-1.2% |
-21 |
-19 |
|
GTRC |
10/06/06 |
3.2% |
Guitar Center, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-0.3% |
1.7% |
-34 |
-19 |
|
TOL |
09/22/06 |
11.4% |
Toll Brothers, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
4.5% |
-3 |
-15 |
|
STLD |
10/27/06 |
7.3% |
Steel Dynamics, Inc. |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
0.0% |
7.3% |
-2 |
-9 |
|
DHI |
09/15/06 |
5.0% |
D.R. Horton Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-0.3% |
7.6% |
-4 |
-8 |
|
BTI |
12/30/05 |
25.2% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Tobacco |
-1.9% |
2.4% |
-8 |
-4 |
|
MDC |
09/22/06 |
23.9% |
M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
11.4% |
-6 |
-4 |
|
PSUN |
10/13/06 |
11.4% |
Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
0.0% |
11.7% |
-7 |
-3 |
|
CRDN |
08/11/06 |
23.0% |
Ceradyne, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Aerospace and Defense |
0.0% |
32.2% |
-6 |
-3 |
|
CCRT |
09/08/06 |
33.8% |
CompuCredit Corporation |
Financial |
Consumer Financial Services |
0.0% |
10.6% |
-9 |
-1 |
Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H. A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3H
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
VVC |
03/03/06 |
8.6% |
Vectren Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-3.6% |
-2.7% |
-85 |
-79 |
|
ATG |
10/21/05 |
14.0% |
AGL Resources Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-4.9% |
0.8% |
-56 |
-59 |
|
WPS |
05/26/06 |
7.6% |
WPS Resources Corporation |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-2.1% |
-0.7% |
-48 |
-47 |
|
SRE |
01/10/05 |
50.8% |
Sempra Energy |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-0.7% |
2.7% |
-13 |
-20 |
|
ATO |
04/01/05 |
21.1% |
Atmos Energy Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-1.2% |
6.3% |
-25 |
-14 |
|
OTTR |
06/09/06 |
15.9% |
Otter Tail Corporation |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-0.7% |
0.3% |
-13 |
-13 |
|
WGL |
12/23/05 |
9.2% |
WGL Holdings, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
0.0% |
2.5% |
-17 |
-9 |
|
EON |
03/10/06 |
14.2% |
E.ON AG (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-2.5% |
5.4% |
-8 |
-8 |
|
KEP |
10/20/06 |
10.2% |
Korea Electric Power Corporation (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-0.7% |
11.1% |
-1 |
-7 |
|
OKE |
11/11/05 |
56.1% |
ONEOK, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
0.0% |
0.7% |
-21 |
-6 |
|
UU |
06/10/05 |
22.7% |
United Utilities PLC (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
0.0% |
10.1% |
-8 |
-2 |
|
UGI |
12/30/05 |
33.9% |
UGI Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
0.0% |
5.2% |
-7 |
-2 |
|
PGN |
01/10/05 |
8.4% |
Progress Energy, Inc. |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
0.0% |
4.0% |
-2 |
0 |
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
John Templeton Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
FAST |
09/22/06 |
-2.3% |
Fastenal Company |
Basic Materials |
Misc. Fabricated Products |
-13.2% |
-8.7% |
-82 |
-89 |
|
JNJ |
02/17/06 |
11.5% |
Johnson & Johnson |
Health Care |
Major Drugs |
-4.7% |
-2.1% |
-64 |
-87 |
|
GISX |
12/30/05 |
23.7% |
Global Imaging Systems, Inc. |
Technology |
Office Equipment |
-6.7% |
-0.8% |
-83 |
-82 |
|
UNH |
08/25/06 |
-8.2% |
UnitedHealth Group Inc. |
Financial |
Insurance (Accident & Health) |
-11.1% |
-5.5% |
-77 |
-75 |
|
EWBC |
12/30/05 |
-1.0% |
East West Bancorp, Inc. |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-11.7% |
0.1% |
-68 |
-74 |
|
SPLS |
05/26/06 |
7.0% |
Staples, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-5.1% |
-0.6% |
-56 |
-72 |
|
WSM |
09/01/06 |
7.1% |
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-9.9% |
-7.5% |
-69 |
-71 |
|
HHS |
08/18/06 |
-0.8% |
Harte-Hanks, Inc. |
Services |
Printing & Publishing |
-5.9% |
0.2% |
-60 |
-67 |
|
BBBY |
07/21/06 |
20.3% |
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-4.8% |
-1.1% |
-59 |
-63 |
|
ORLY |
09/01/06 |
7.9% |
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-6.5% |
0.6% |
-52 |
-61 |
|
SPF |
09/15/06 |
-1.3% |
Standard Pacific Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-12.0% |
-3.2% |
-53 |
-60 |
|
HZO |
08/11/06 |
30.5% |
MarineMax, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-8.6% |
3.4% |
-58 |
-59 |
|
JBHT |
09/22/06 |
10.7% |
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. |
Transportation |
Trucking |
-4.2% |
-2.3% |
-52 |
-52 |
|
CHRW |
11/03/06 |
3.4% |
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. |
Transportation |
Misc. Transportation |
-3.2% |
-0.3% |
-49 |
-51 |
|
LOW |
09/08/06 |
10.1% |
Lowe's Companies, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Home Improvement) |
-4.2% |
-1.6% |
-37 |
-49 |
|
THO |
08/25/06 |
12.9% |
Thor Industries, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Mobile Homes & RVs |
-5.9% |
-0.1% |
-40 |
-45 |
|
BZH |
11/24/06 |
0.0% |
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
0.0% |
-0.2% |
-28 |
-36 |
|
CHS |
09/15/06 |
14.4% |
Chico's FAS, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-5.2% |
-1.2% |
-31 |
-33 |
|
BJS |
11/03/06 |
4.2% |
BJ Services Company |
Energy |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-2.5% |
1.5% |
-28 |
-32 |
|
HIBB |
07/21/06 |
57.5% |
Hibbett Sporting Goods, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-4.4% |
-4.4% |
-27 |
-26 |
|
GBCI |
05/05/06 |
14.0% |
Glacier Bancorp, Inc. |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-1.7% |
2.0% |
-19 |
-25 |
|
USTR |
08/11/06 |
5.2% |
United Stationers Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Office Supplies |
-1.1% |
0.6% |
-21 |
-25 |
|
CHD |
11/18/05 |
26.1% |
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Personal & Household Products |
-1.6% |
3.3% |
-19 |
-21 |
|
MMM |
11/10/06 |
2.5% |
3M Company |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-0.6% |
-0.3% |
-7 |
-12 |
|
LRW |
10/27/06 |
11.4% |
Labor Ready, Inc. |
Services |
Business Services |