Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter
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Issue No. 106 December 25, 2006 Prescott, Arizona Systems@WiserTrader.com
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1.0 Trading
The major indices declined an average of 1.32% this week.
|
Index |
Last Week |
This Week |
% Change |
|
DOW |
12445.50 |
12343.22 |
-0.8% |
|
NASDAQ |
2457.20 |
2401.18 |
-2.3% |
|
S&P 500 |
1427.09 |
1410.76 |
-1.1% |
|
Russell 2K |
792.71 |
780.82 |
-1.5% |
|
NYSE |
9140.39 |
9062.13 |
-0.9% |
|
Average |
|
|
-1.32% |
1.1 Low Volume
The S&P 500 in Figure 1A declined 1.1% this week. Volume was light as many traders called it a wrap for the season. Precious metals and banks gained slightly while all other sectors fell. Oil and energy were the largest decliners, followed by semiconductors, home construction and technology. The average Williams-%R for the above five indices is -78 with a 200-day moving average of -39.
FIGURE 1A
The NASDAQ in Figure 1B lost 2.3% for the week, still hugging its upper trend line. The sideways movement for the past month is clearly apparent. The NYSE, S&P 500 and DOW have all outpaced the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 over the past month.
FIGURE 1B
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2.0 Market Analysis
Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A
Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month |
1 wk ago |
2 wks ago |
3 wks ago |
4 wks ago |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Index |
0.5% |
-0.8% |
1.1% |
0.9% |
-0.7% |
|
NASDAQ Composite Index |
-2.4% |
-2.3% |
0.8% |
1.0% |
-1.9% |
|
S & P 500 Index |
0.7% |
-1.1% |
1.2% |
0.9% |
-0.3% |
|
NYSE Composite Index |
1.4% |
-0.9% |
1.1% |
1.0% |
0.2% |
|
Russell 2000 Index |
-1.4% |
-1.5% |
0.0% |
1.5% |
-1.4% |
|
HGX, Phil. Housing Index |
3.2% |
-2.5% |
1.3% |
1.4% |
3.0% |
|
IYR, Real Estate |
-4.7% |
-3.2% |
-0.9% |
-0.6% |
-0.1% |
|
GLD, GOLD |
-2.9% |
1.1% |
-1.7% |
-3.2% |
1.0% |
|
RKH, Banking |
3.0% |
0.4% |
2.7% |
1.2% |
-1.2% |
|
IYT, Transportation |
-7.0% |
-4.3% |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
-2.7% |
|
SMH, Semiconductors |
-5.8% |
-2.8% |
0.2% |
0.5% |
-3.7% |
|
BBH, Biotechnology |
-2.2% |
-1.3% |
-1.0% |
0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
OIH, Oil Infrastructure |
0.7% |
-5.5% |
2.0% |
-0.7% |
5.2% |
|
XLE, Energy |
1.8% |
-4.0% |
1.2% |
-0.7% |
5.5% |
|
XLU, Utilities |
1.0% |
-1.0% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
XLB, Materials |
-1.7% |
-2.5% |
-0.5% |
2.4% |
-1.0% |
|
XLI, Industrial |
-1.3% |
-0.5% |
-0.3% |
1.1% |
-1.6% |
|
XLK, Technology |
-2.9% |
-2.2% |
0.7% |
0.3% |
-1.9% |
|
XLV, Healthcare |
1.3% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.6% |
|
XLF, Financials |
1.4% |
-0.2% |
1.1% |
2.1% |
-1.6% |
|
XLP, Consumer Staples |
1.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
2.1% |
-0.8% |
|
XLY, Consumer Discretionary |
0.7% |
-0.6% |
0.6% |
1.6% |
-0.8% |
The volatility indexes and put/call ratio are listed in Table 2B.
Table 2B
Sentiment
|
Indicator |
Current |
Last Week |
2 Weeks Ago |
Complacent |
Cautious |
|
VIX ** |
11.4 |
10.1 |
12.1 |
< 20 |
> 50 |
|
VXN *** |
17.2 |
15.2 |
17.1 |
< 30 |
> 70 |
|
CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio |
2.01 |
1.20 |
1.42 |
- |
- |
|
CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio |
0.66 |
0.56 |
0.56 |
< 0.55 |
> 0.70 |
|
** Above 20 day SMA = Short-term sell signal. *** Above 20 day SMA = Short-term sell signal. |
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Figure 2A compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s.
FIGURE 2A
Table 2C
Market Summary
Industry performance is based on the Yahoo Industry Classification System
Major Indices For the Past Week: Dow Jones -0.8% NASDAQ -2.3% S&P500 Index -1.1% Russell 2000 -1.5% NYSE -0.9% 30 Year Bond 4.763% 10 Year Note 4.624% FOMC Rate 5.250% Leading Industries For the Past Week: Lagging Industries For the Past Week: |
Leading Industries For the Past Month: Lagging Industries For the Past Month: Crude Oil $62.31 Gold for the past 30 days: USD -1.73% CAD -0.31% CHF -1.95% GBP -3.78% EUR -3.06% JPY +0.60% |
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3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders. The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.
Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.
One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence.
A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R. The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.
Watchlist performance is based on weekly closing prices on Friday. The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months. More information on filters is available on the web site.
A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter |
Avg. % Change Since Listed |
Avg. % Change Friday |
1 Month |
1 Week Ago |
2 weeks Ago |
3 Weeks Ago |
4 Weeks Ago |
|
Net Insider Buying |
12.2% |
0.2% |
7.3% |
0.0% |
3.1% |
3.3% |
0.7% |
|
Cash Rich Companies |
0.5% |
-1.0% |
-5.4% |
-2.9% |
1.4% |
-1.6% |
-2.4% |
|
Price to Free Cash Flow |
12.4% |
-1.3% |
2.0% |
-0.2% |
1.9% |
0.8% |
-0.5% |
|
Growth Momentum |
8.9% |
-0.6% |
-0.3% |
-2.3% |
0.6% |
1.8% |
-0.5% |
|
Lynch |
27.2% |
-0.7% |
0.8% |
-1.7% |
-0.3% |
1.9% |
0.8% |
|
Buffett |
12.3% |
-0.5% |
-0.1% |
-3.1% |
-0.1% |
1.6% |
1.8% |
|
Graham |
22.4% |
-0.2% |
1.2% |
-1.8% |
1.2% |
1.3% |
0.6% |
|
Templeton |
12.4% |
-0.6% |
-1.1% |
-2.0% |
-0.1% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
|
Zweig |
10.5% |
-0.5% |
0.7% |
-1.9% |
0.8% |
2.0% |
-0.1% |
|
Average |
13.2% |
-0.6% |
0.6% |
-1.8% |
0.9% |
1.3% |
0.1% |
Key
|
Passed Recent Filter |
|
Price declined by half of stop loss setting |
|
Oversold based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
|
Overbought based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
ORCH |
12/01/06 |
-2.5% |
Orchid Cellmark, Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-10.4% |
-1.0% |
-92 |
-92 |
|
PYX |
10/13/06 |
2.8% |
Playtex Products, Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Personal & Household Products |
-3.1% |
-2.9% |
-71 |
-84 |
|
MFLX |
12/22/06 |
0.0% |
Multi-Fineline Electronix, Inc. |
Technology |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
0.0% |
-2.2% |
-73 |
-69 |
|
MSN |
07/07/06 |
1.3% |
Emerson Radio Corp. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Audio & Video Equipment |
-8.1% |
-6.5% |
-65 |
-63 |
|
FRN |
12/08/06 |
0.3% |
Friendly Ice Cream Corporation |
Services |
Restaurants |
-5.1% |
-1.7% |
-30 |
-40 |
|
MAG |
10/06/06 |
39.3% |
Magnetek, Inc. |
Technology |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
-4.8% |
0.4% |
-18 |
-38 |
|
MOBE |
11/24/06 |
7.4% |
Mobility Electronics, Inc. |
Technology |
Computer Peripherals |
-9.2% |
-2.3% |
-34 |
-37 |
|
AAWW |
12/15/06 |
-3.3% |
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc. |
Transportation |
Airline |
-3.3% |
-3.3% |
-23 |
-23 |
|
CYTX |
11/03/06 |
32.1% |
Cytori Therapeutics Inc. |
Health Care |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-6.5% |
-0.9% |
-11 |
-20 |
|
GMTN |
12/22/06 |
0.0% |
Gander Mountain Company |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
0.0% |
2.5% |
-16 |
-15 |
|
PBY |
10/06/06 |
7.7% |
The Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
0.0% |
9.6% |
-7 |
-4 |
|
APN |
09/08/06 |
61.8% |
Applica Incorporated |
Consumer Cyclical |
Appliances & Tools |
0.0% |
11.8% |
-8 |
-3 |
Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
EXAR |
07/28/06 |
0.5% |
Exar Corporation |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
-8.9% |
-5.4% |
-79 |
-90 |
Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5. Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.
Table 3D
Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
FIS |
08/18/06 |
9.6% |
Fidelity National Information Services |
Services |
Business Services |
-5.2% |
-1.5% |
-48 |
-65 |
|
FNLY |
09/08/06 |
15.3% |
Finlay Enterprises, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Jewelry & Silverware |
-3.2% |
1.1% |
-9 |
-18 |
For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
VLCCF |
12/22/06 |
0.0% |
Knightsbridge Tankers Limited |
Transportation |
Water Transportation |
0.0% |
-15.3% |
-94 |
-97 |
|
BTI |
08/12/05 |
40.4% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Tobacco |
-2.4% |
0.4% |
-29 |
-36 |
|
VIP |
08/18/06 |
58.7% |
Vimpel-Communications (ADR) |
Services |
Communications Services |
-6.4% |
9.4% |
-33 |
-36 |
|
SKM |
08/25/06 |
23.2% |
SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (ADR) |
Services |
Communications Services |
-2.6% |
2.1% |
-26 |
-35 |
|
NAT |
11/17/06 |
1.5% |
Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited |
Transportation |
Water Transportation |
-2.1% |
0.7% |
-38 |
-31 |
|
PKX |
08/11/06 |
39.3% |
POSCO (ADR) |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
-2.7% |
7.3% |
-17 |
-26 |
For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3F
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
LRCX |
10/13/06 |
-3.6% |
Lam Research Corporation |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
-12.0% |
-6.6% |
-94 |
-97 |
|
APH |
10/20/06 |
-7.5% |
Amphenol Corporation |
Technology |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
-9.8% |
-2.9% |
-98 |
-94 |
|
ADS |
10/20/06 |
1.4% |
Alliance Data Systems |
Technology |
Computer Services |
-7.2% |
-4.1% |
-68 |
-93 |
|
MDR |
11/03/06 |
4.9% |
McDermott International |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-7.7% |
-3.6% |
-60 |
-57 |
|
CSE |
08/04/06 |
11.2% |
CapitalSource, Inc. |
Financial |
Misc. Financial Services |
-4.7% |
-2.7% |
-47 |
-57 |
|
GS |
08/18/06 |
28.1% |
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
-3.4% |
-0.9% |
-40 |
-40 |
|
PD |
12/08/06 |
-5.5% |
Phelps Dodge Corporation |
Basic Materials |
Metal Mining |
-5.5% |
-4.6% |
-21 |
-25 |
|
IO |
10/06/06 |
28.0% |
Input/Output, Inc. |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
-1.5% |
-1.5% |
-18 |
-20 |
|
VSEA |
10/27/06 |
23.0% |
Varian Semiconductor |
Technology |
Semiconductors |
-0.3% |
6.1% |
-1 |
-4 |
The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term. Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
BJS |
11/03/06 |
-3.6% |
BJ Services Company |
Energy |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-12.6% |
-7.4% |
-93 |
-96 |
|
JOSB |
09/22/06 |
-1.2% |
Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-10.2% |
-4.3% |
-86 |
-93 |
|
JBHT |
09/22/06 |
5.9% |
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. |
Transportation |
Trucking |
-8.3% |
-4.3% |
-93 |
-93 |
|
IMO |
10/06/06 |
11.1% |
IMPERIAL OIL LTD |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-7.7% |
-2.6% |
-80 |
-90 |
|
EOG |
11/10/06 |
-4.7% |
EOG Resources, Inc. |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-10.8% |
-7.4% |
-81 |
-89 |
|
THO |
07/21/06 |
2.2% |
Thor Industries, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Mobile Homes & RVs |
-8.3% |
-2.6% |
-58 |
-80 |
|
AEOS |
03/10/06 |
56.0% |
American Eagle Outfitters |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-5.2% |
-3.4% |
-71 |
-77 |
|
UNT |
11/17/06 |
0.6% |
Unit Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-6.7% |
-0.9% |
-73 |
-77 |
|
GTRC |
10/06/06 |
3.5% |
Guitar Center, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-7.1% |
0.3% |
-72 |
-73 |
|
STR |
05/26/06 |
16.2% |
Questar Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-7.5% |
-2.0% |
-60 |
-69 |
|
PCU |
07/21/06 |
23.2% |
Southern Copper Corporation |
Basic Materials |
Metal Mining |
-9.4% |
-0.8% |
-69 |
-65 |
|
MTH |
08/04/06 |
10.9% |
Meritage Homes Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-8.8% |
1.4% |
-62 |
-64 |
|
TBL |
07/07/06 |
22.4% |
The Timberland Company |
Consumer Cyclical |
Footwear |
-4.6% |
-0.9% |
-57 |
-59 |
|
APA |
11/24/06 |
2.3% |
Apache Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-4.6% |
2.3% |
-49 |
-55 |
|
SPF |
07/14/06 |
13.0% |
Standard Pacific Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-9.7% |
6.3% |
-49 |
-55 |
|
PSUN |
10/13/06 |
12.5% |
Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-4.9% |
0.9% |
-61 |
-55 |
|
PETD |
07/07/06 |
18.3% |
Petroleum Development Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-7.7% |
3.7% |
-55 |
-54 |
|
STLD |
10/27/06 |
4.4% |
Steel Dynamics, Inc. |
Basic Materials |
Iron & Steel |
-9.9% |
-2.7% |
-51 |
-54 |
|
OSK |
11/03/06 |
8.0% |
Oshkosh Truck Corporation |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-5.0% |
0.0% |
-54 |
-51 |
|
OXY |
11/24/06 |
2.5% |
Occidental Petroleum Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-5.4% |
2.5% |
-42 |
-50 |
|
XOM |
08/04/06 |
9.8% |
Exxon Mobil Corporation |
Energy |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-4.2% |
4.2% |
-43 |
-50 |
|
MDC |
09/22/06 |
21.7% |
M.D.C. Holdings, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-3.7% |
-1.8% |
-42 |
-46 |
|
CCRT |
09/08/06 |
38.0% |
CompuCredit Corporation |
Financial |
Consumer Financial Services |
-4.2% |
3.2% |
-32 |
-40 |
|
DHI |
09/15/06 |
6.8% |
D.R. Horton, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-5.6% |
1.7% |
-33 |
-37 |
|
BTI |
12/30/05 |
25.7% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Tobacco |
-2.4% |
0.4% |
-29 |
-36 |
|
TOL |
09/22/06 |
13.6% |
Toll Brothers, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-4.3% |
1.9% |
-28 |
-33 |
|
NAT |
11/10/06 |
-1.2% |
Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited |
Transportation |
Water Transportation |
-2.1% |
0.7% |
-38 |
-31 |
|
RS |
08/11/06 |
19.0% |
Reliance Steel & Aluminum |
Basic Materials |
Misc. Fabricated Products |
-4.9% |
3.0% |
-25 |
-25 |
|
CRDN |
08/11/06 |
27.7% |
Ceradyne, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Aerospace and Defense |
-0.2% |
3.9% |
-32 |
-18 |
|
ALD |
10/13/06 |
4.7% |
Allied Capital Corporation |
Financial |
Investment Services |
-0.5% |
2.9% |
-14 |
-13 |
Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H. A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3H
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
UGI |
12/30/05 |
31.1% |
UGI Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-4.3% |
-2.1% |
-89 |
-96 |
|
WGL |
12/23/05 |
6.9% |
WGL Holdings, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-2.7% |
-2.2% |
-72 |
-80 |
|
ATO |
04/01/05 |
18.2% |
Atmos Energy Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-3.5% |
-2.3% |
-74 |
-79 |
|
VVC |
03/03/06 |
8.2% |
Vectren Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-3.9% |
-0.4% |
-64 |
-68 |
|
SRE |
01/10/05 |
52.7% |
Sempra Energy |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-2.8% |
1.3% |
-53 |
-53 |
|
UU |
06/10/05 |
25.1% |
United Utilities PLC (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-3.3% |
2.0% |
-39 |
-41 |
|
OKE |
11/11/05 |
60.3% |
ONEOK, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-2.6% |
2.7% |
-43 |
-40 |
|
ATG |
10/21/05 |
17.6% |
AGL Resources Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-2.0% |
3.1% |
-40 |
-40 |
|
OTTR |
06/09/06 |
15.9% |
Otter Tail Corporation |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-2.0% |
0.0% |
-48 |
-36 |
|
EON |
03/10/06 |
19.8% |
E.ON AG (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-3.2% |
4.9% |
-16 |
-34 |
|
PGN |
01/10/05 |
10.9% |
Progress Energy, Inc. |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-0.9% |
2.3% |
-16 |
-20 |
|
WPS |
05/26/06 |
9.1% |
WPS Resources Corporation |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-0.7% |
1.4% |
-22 |
-19 |
|
KEP |
10/20/06 |
15.6% |
Korea Electric Power Corporation (ADR) |
Utilities |
Electric Utilities |
-0.9% |
5.0% |
-12 |
-16 |
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
John Templeton Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
CHRW |
11/03/06 |
-4.3% |
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. |
Transportation |
Misc. Transportation |
-10.9% |
-7.5% |
-93 |
-100 |
|
HAR |
08/18/06 |
16.1% |
Harman International Industries Inc./DE/ |
Consumer Cyclical |
Audio & Video Equipment |
-7.9% |
-6.7% |
-99 |
-99 |
|
BJS |
11/03/06 |
-3.6% |
BJ Services Company |
Energy |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-12.6% |
-7.4% |
-93 |
-96 |
|
CHS |
09/15/06 |
4.7% |
Chico's FAS, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-13.2% |
-8.5% |
-95 |
-96 |
|
BBBY |
07/21/06 |
16.6% |
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-7.8% |
-3.1% |
-82 |
-94 |
|
JBHT |
09/22/06 |
5.9% |
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. |
Transportation |
Trucking |
-8.3% |
-3.4% |
-93 |
-93 |
|
WSO |
07/28/06 |
5.2% |
Watsco, Incorporated |
Capital Goods |
Misc. Capital Goods |
-12.3% |
-12.2% |
-94 |
-93 |
|
PNR |
07/28/06 |
9.0% |
Pentair, Inc. |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-6.8% |
-6.8% |
-93 |
-87 |
|
USTR |
08/11/06 |
-0.9% |
United Stationers Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Office Supplies |
-6.9% |
-5.9% |
-81 |
-85 |
|
JNJ |
02/17/06 |
11.1% |
Johnson & Johnson |
Health Care |
Major Drugs |
-5.0% |
-1.0% |
-67 |
-82 |
|
THO |
08/25/06 |
9.9% |
Thor Industries, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Mobile Homes & RVs |
-8.3% |
-2.6% |
-58 |
-80 |
|
MMM |
11/10/06 |
-1.1% |
3M Company |
Conglomerates |
Conglomerates |
-4.0% |
0.1% |
-68 |
-78 |
|
IEX |
08/11/06 |
10.6% |
IDEX Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Misc. Capital Goods |
-4.5% |
-1.3% |
-68 |
-76 |
|
LRW |
10/27/06 |
6.0% |
Labor Ready, Inc. |
Services |
Business Services |
-6.9% |
-3.6% |
-70 |
-75 |
|
EWBC |
12/30/05 |
-4.0% |
East West Bancorp, Inc. |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-14.3% |
-3.0% |
-76 |
-75 |
|
HZO |
08/11/06 |
27.8% |
MarineMax, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-10.6% |
-2.9% |
-76 |
-70 |
|
WSM |
09/01/06 |
7.7% |
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-9.4% |
0.6% |
-65 |
-68 |
|
GISX |
12/30/05 |
23.0% |
Global Imaging Systems, Inc. |
Technology |
Office Equipment |
-7.2% |
-0.6% |
-39 |
-61 |
|
SPF |
09/15/06 |
5.0% |
Standard Pacific Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-9.7% |
6.3% |
-49 |
-55 |
|
LOW |
09/08/06 |
11.7% |
Lowe's Companies, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Home Improvement) |
-3.8% |
-3.1% |
-54 |
-48 |
|
HIBB |
07/21/06 |
55.7% |
Hibbett Sporting Goods, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-5.5% |
-2.5% |
-48 |
-46 |
|
BZH |
11/24/06 |
4.7% |
Beazer Homes USA, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-5.1% |
4.7% |
-40 |
-44 |
|
SPLS |
05/26/06 |
11.3% |
Staples, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-3.2% |
4.0% |
-38 |
-44 |
|
RYL |
08/11/06 |
30.7% |
The Ryland Group, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-7.4% |
4.2% |
-40 |
-42 |
|
ORLY |
09/01/06 |
7.7% |
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. |
Services |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-6.7% |
-0.1% |
-46 |
-41 |
|
DHI |
07/14/06 |
22.6% |
D.R. Horton, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-5.6% |
1.7% |
-33 |
-37 |
|
GBCI |
05/05/06 |
18.2% |
Glacier Bancorp, Inc. |
Financial |
Regional Banks |
-2.1% |
3.7% |
-36 |
-37 |
|
TOL |
12/01/06 |
-1.8% |
Toll Brothers, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Construction Services |
-4.3% |
1.9% |
-28 |
-33 |
|
COH |
07/28/06 |
54.9% |
Coach, Inc. |
Consumer Cyclical |
Apparel/Accessories |
-1.6% |
1.9% |
-19 |
-24 |
|
CHD |
11/18/05 |
28.4% |
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. |
Consumer Non-Cyclical |
Personal & Household Products |
-0.2% |
1.8% |
-17 |
-21 |
|
HHS |
08/18/06 |
2.7% |
Harte-Hanks, Inc. |
Services |
Printing & Publishing |
-2.6% |
3.5% |
-10 |
-20 |
|
UNH |
08/25/06 |
5.1% |
UnitedHealth Group Inc. |
Financial |
Insurance (Accident & Health) |
-0.9% |
14.4% |
-6 |
-12 |
Optionable stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J.
Table 3J
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference |
% Chg |
Company |
Sector |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
MDU |
01/27/06 |
9.8% |
MDU Resources Group, Inc. |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-5.4% |
-1.6% |
-88 |
-95 |
|
TDY |
10/27/06 |
-7.3% |
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated |
Services |
Business Services |
-7.8% |
-6.1% |
-80 |
-92 |
|
ESI |
11/04/05 |
13.5% |
ITT Educational Services, Inc. |
Services |
Schools |
-5.1% |
-4.5% |
-84 |
-89 |
|
RRC |
11/24/06 |
-1.2% |
Range Resources Corp. |
Energy |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-11.5% |
-1.2% |
-82 |
-85 |
|
AEOS |
12/22/06 |
0.0% |
American Eagle Outfitters |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
0.0% |
-3.4% |
-71 |
-77 |
|
DHR |
07/21/06 |
15.5% |
Danaher Corporation |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
-3.4% |
-2.8% |
-63 |
-74 |
|
CAM |
11/17/06 |
1.7% |
Cameron International Corporation |
Energy |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-6.7% |
1.0% |
-66 |
-69 |
|
ACO |
12/08/06 |
-3.9% |
AMCOL International Corporation |
Capital Goods |
Construction - Raw Materials |
-5.2% |
-1.2% |
-71 |
-67 |
|
PCAR |
07/28/06 |
21.5% |
PACCAR Inc |
Consumer Cyclical |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-4.3% |
0.6% |
-56 |
-65 |
|
BEAV |
11/17/06 |
-5.9% |
BE Aerospace, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Aerospace and Defense |
-7.1% |
-6.2% |
-52 |
-63 |
|
TROW |
07/28/06 |
8.4% |
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
-9.3% |
-0.5% |
-57 |
-62 |
|
SII |
12/08/06 |
-3.6% |
Smith International, Inc. |
Energy |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-5.6% |
2.1% |
-51 |
-57 |
|
WDC |
12/15/06 |
0.5% |
Western Digital Corp. |
Technology |
Computer Storage Devices |
-2.6% |
-3.8% |
-44 |
-51 |
|
ANF |
11/17/06 |
0.1% |
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. |
Services |
Retail (Apparel) |
-0.2% |
0.9% |
-59 |
-51 |
|
RL |
08/11/06 |
39.4% |
Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation |
Consumer Cyclical |
Apparel/Accessories |
-4.0% |
2.2% |
-43 |
-50 |
|
GS |
06/16/06 |
37.6% |
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
-3.4% |
-1.7% |
-40 |
-40 |
|
LYO |
10/27/06 |
-5.1% |
Lyondell Chemical Company |
Basic Materials |
Chemical Manufacturing |
-5.1% |
4.2% |
-33 |
-36 |
|
PCP |
08/11/06 |
33.6% |
Precision Castparts Corp. |
Capital Goods |
Aerospace and Defense |
-2.5% |
2.2% |
-16 |
-28 |
|
BSC |
06/16/06 |
23.4% |
The Bear Stearns Companies Inc. |
Financial |
Investment Services |
-1.9% |
2.3% |
-16 |
-23 |
|
IO |
08/25/06 |
37.1% |
Input/Output, Inc. |
Technology |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
-1.5% |
20.1% |
-18 |
-20 |
|
EGN |
10/27/06 |
10.4% |
Energen Corporation |
Utilities |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-1.1% |
4.1% |
-19 |
-19 |
|
CRDN |
11/17/06 |
7.4% |
Ceradyne, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Aerospace and Defense |
-0.2% |
3.9% |
-32 |
-18 |
|
COL |
11/17/06 |
5.5% |
Rockwell Collins, Inc. |
Capital Goods |
Aerospace and Defense |
-1.0% |
4.3% |
-7 |
-16 |
|
TSS |
10/20/06 |
12.4% |
Total System Services |
Technology |
Computer Services |
-1.0% |
2.6% |
-11 |
-13 |
4.0 Results & Conclusions
This section highlights trading performance. Only a summary is provided here to save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the website.
|
Major Indices Year to Date |
Relative to SMA 200 |
200 Day High |
Relative to High |
||||
|
|
12/30/05 |
12/23/06 |
% Chg |
12/23/06 |
Prior Week |
||
|
DOW |
10717.5 |
12,343.22 |
15.17% |
7.27% |
8.38% |
12471.30 |
-1.03% |
|
NASDAQ |
2205.32 |
2,401.18 |
8.88% |
6.41% |
9.00% |
2465.98 |
-2.63% |
|
S&P500 |
1248.29 |
1,410.76 |
13.02% |
7.17% |
8.69% |
1427.09 |
-1.14% |
|
Russell 2K |
673.22 |
780.82 |
15.98% |
5.84% |
7.95% |
797.42 |
-2.08% |
|
NYSE |
7753.95 |
9062.13 |
16.87% |
7.59% |
9.07% |
9147.20 |
-0.93% |
|
Average |
|
|
13.98% |
6.86% |
8.62% |
|
-1.56% |
4.1 Options Trading
Average Profit per Trade -1.7%
Average Hold Time 6.1 days
4.2 Stock Trading
|
Stock Trading for 2006 ($10.5K Initial Capital) |
||
|
Number of Closed trades in 2006 = |
13 |
|
|
Average Trade Size = |
$1,000.00 |
|
|
Total Closed Position Share costs = |
$13,000.00 |
|
|
Gross Profit on Closed Positions = |
$47.74 |
0.4% |
|
Number of Open Positions = |
6 |
|
|
Gross Profit on Open Positions = |
$255.10 |
4.3% |
|
Broker Commission ($9.99/trade) = |
-$319.68 |
|
|
Subscription Cost to date = |
-$120.00 |
|
|
Net Profit After Expenses = |
-$136.84 |
-1.3% |
|
Cash = |
$4,547.74 |
|
Appendix - Investment Conference Schedule
Below are links to conference registration sites.
- 01-21-07 through 01-22-07, Vancouver Convention & Exhibition Centre, Vancouver, BC, 2007 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. Featuring a world-class line-up of speakers, covering all types of direct investments in resource public companies, speculative investing, resource exploration, oil & gas, world outlook, investment strategies and more.
- 02-19-07 through 02-21-07, Sheraton San Diego Hotel & Marina, San Diego, CA, 2007 RESNET Building Performance Conference. RESNET and NativeEnergy has joined forces to offset 100% of the carbon dioxide emissions from the facilities and transportation for hosting and participant travel with the 2007 RESNET Building Performance Conference. This makes this year's conference the first carbon-neutral building performance conference ever.
- 03-31-07 through 04-01-07, Telus Convention Centre, 120 Ninth Avenue, Calgary, AB . 2007 Calgary Resource Investment Conference, Featuring a world class line-up of speakers, covering all types of direct investments in resource public companies, speculative investing, resource exploration, oil & gas, world outlook, investment strategies and more!
Conference Search
Financial reporting and corporate news - "Corporate News Announcements"