Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter

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Issue No. 106   December 25, 2006                 Prescott, Arizona                       Systems@WiserTrader.com

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1.0   Trading

     

      The major indices declined an average of 1.32% this week.

 

Index

Last Week

This Week

% Change

DOW

12445.50

12343.22

-0.8%

NASDAQ

2457.20

2401.18

-2.3%

S&P 500

1427.09

1410.76

-1.1%

Russell 2K

792.71

780.82

-1.5%

NYSE

9140.39

9062.13

-0.9%

Average

 

 

-1.32%

 

 

1.1 Low Volume

 

      The S&P 500 in Figure 1A declined 1.1% this week.  Volume was light as many traders called it a wrap for the season.  Precious metals and banks gained slightly while all other sectors fell.  Oil and energy were the largest decliners, followed by semiconductors, home construction and technology.  The average Williams-%R for the above five indices is -78 with a 200-day moving average of -39.

 

 

 

FIGURE 1A

 

 

 

      The NASDAQ in Figure 1B lost 2.3% for the week, still hugging its upper trend line.  The sideways movement for the past month is clearly apparent.  The NYSE, S&P 500 and DOW have all outpaced the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 over the past month.

 

 

 

FIGURE 1B

 

 

 

 

 

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2.0 Market Analysis

 

      Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ.  Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory.  Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500.  Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending. 

 

 

Table 2A

Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s

 

1 month

1 wk ago

2 wks ago

3 wks ago

4 wks ago

Dow Jones Industrial Index

0.5%

-0.8%

1.1%

0.9%

-0.7%

NASDAQ Composite Index

-2.4%

-2.3%

0.8%

1.0%

-1.9%

S & P 500 Index

0.7%

-1.1%

1.2%

0.9%

-0.3%

NYSE Composite Index

1.4%

-0.9%

1.1%

1.0%

0.2%

Russell 2000 Index

-1.4%

-1.5%

0.0%

1.5%

-1.4%

HGX, Phil. Housing Index

3.2%

-2.5%

1.3%

1.4%

3.0%

IYR, Real Estate

-4.7%

-3.2%

-0.9%

-0.6%

-0.1%

GLD, GOLD

-2.9%

1.1%

-1.7%

-3.2%

1.0%

RKH, Banking

3.0%

0.4%

2.7%

1.2%

-1.2%

IYT, Transportation

-7.0%

-4.3%

-0.2%

0.0%

-2.7%

SMH, Semiconductors

-5.8%

-2.8%

0.2%

0.5%

-3.7%

BBH, Biotechnology

-2.2%

-1.3%

-1.0%

0.4%

-0.3%

OIH, Oil Infrastructure

0.7%

-5.5%

2.0%

-0.7%

5.2%

XLE, Energy

1.8%

-4.0%

1.2%

-0.7%

5.5%

XLU, Utilities

1.0%

-1.0%

0.5%

0.1%

1.4%

XLB, Materials

-1.7%

-2.5%

-0.5%

2.4%

-1.0%

XLI, Industrial

-1.3%

-0.5%

-0.3%

1.1%

-1.6%

XLK, Technology

-2.9%

-2.2%

0.7%

0.3%

-1.9%

XLV, Healthcare

1.3%

0.1%

0.5%

0.0%

0.6%

XLF, Financials

1.4%

-0.2%

1.1%

2.1%

-1.6%

XLP, Consumer Staples

1.3%

0.0%

0.0%

2.1%

-0.8%

XLY, Consumer Discretionary

0.7%

-0.6%

0.6%

1.6%

-0.8%

 

 

 

 

      The volatility indexes and put/call ratio are listed in Table 2B.

 

 

Table 2B

Sentiment

Indicator

Current

Last Week

2 Weeks Ago

Complacent

Cautious

VIX **

11.4

10.1

12.1

< 20

> 50

VXN ***

17.2

15.2

17.1

< 30

> 70

CBOE Index Put/Call Ratio

2.01

1.20

1.42

-

-

CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio

0.66

0.56

0.56

< 0.55      

> 0.70

**   Above 20 day SMA = Short-term sell signal.

*** Above 20 day SMA = Short-term sell signal.

 

 

 

      Figure 2A compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s.

 

 

FIGURE 2A

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2C

Market Summary

 

Industry performance is based on the Yahoo Industry Classification System

 

 Major Indices 
 For the Past Week:
 Dow Jones     -0.8%
 NASDAQ        -2.3%
 S&P500 Index  -1.1%
 Russell 2000  -1.5%
 NYSE          -0.9%
 
 30 Year Bond 4.763%
 10 Year Note 4.624%
 FOMC Rate    5.250%
 
 Leading Industries
 For the Past Week:

Specialized Health Services

Auto Manufacturers - Major

Processing Systems & Products

Drug Stores

Health Care Plans

Management Services

Life Insurance

Hospitals

General Entertainment

Auto Dealerships

 
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Week:

Air Delivery & Freight Services

Sporting Goods Stores

Aluminum

Home Furnishing Stores

Apparel Stores

Personal Computers

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

Music & Video Stores

Printed Circuit Boards

Copper

 
 
 
 Leading Industries
 For the Past Month:

Specialized Health Services

Drug Stores

Tobacco Products, Other

Health Care Plans

Hospitals

Auto Manufacturers - Major

Marketing Services

Life Insurance

Beverages - Brewers

Resorts & Casinos

 
 Lagging Industries
 For the Past Month:

Semiconductor - Broad Line

Music & Video Stores

Air Delivery & Freight Services

Semiconductor - Specialized

Internet Software & Services

Multimedia & Graphics Software

Printed Circuit Boards

Internet Information Providers

Personal Computers

Toy & Hobby Stores

 
 Crude Oil $62.31
 
 Gold for the past 30 days:
 USD    -1.73%
 CAD    -0.31%
 CHF    -1.95%
 GBP    -3.78%
 EUR    -3.06%
 JPY    +0.60%
 
 
 
 

 

 

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3.0 Procedure

 

      The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration.  They are not necessarily trades.  Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders.  The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders. 

 

      Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days.  Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day.  Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.

 

      One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward.  They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline.  The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence. 

 

      A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R.  The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.

 

      Watchlist performance is based on weekly closing prices on Friday.  The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list.  The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months.  The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date.  Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow.  Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months.  More information on filters is available on the web site.

 

      A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A. 

 

 

Table 3A

Stock Filter Summary

Filter

Avg. % Change Since Listed

Avg. % Change Friday

1 Month

1 Week Ago

2 weeks Ago

3 Weeks Ago

4 Weeks Ago

Net Insider Buying

12.2%

0.2%

7.3%

0.0%

3.1%

3.3%

0.7%

Cash Rich Companies

0.5%

-1.0%

-5.4%

-2.9%

1.4%

-1.6%

-2.4%

Price to Free Cash Flow

12.4%

-1.3%

2.0%

-0.2%

1.9%

0.8%

-0.5%

Growth Momentum

8.9%

-0.6%

-0.3%

-2.3%

0.6%

1.8%

-0.5%

Lynch

27.2%

-0.7%

0.8%

-1.7%

-0.3%

1.9%

0.8%

Buffett

12.3%

-0.5%

-0.1%

-3.1%

-0.1%

1.6%

1.8%

Graham

22.4%

-0.2%

1.2%

-1.8%

1.2%

1.3%

0.6%

Templeton

12.4%

-0.6%

-1.1%

-2.0%

-0.1%

0.5%

0.5%

 Zweig

10.5%

-0.5%

0.7%

-1.9%

0.8%

2.0%

-0.1%

Average

13.2%

-0.6%

0.6%

-1.8%

0.9%

1.3%

0.1%

 

 

Key

Passed Recent Filter

Price declined by half of stop loss setting

Oversold  based on  Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

Overbought based on Williams %R  (%R2 is most recent)

 

 

 

      Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

 

Table 3B

Net Insider Buying Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

ORCH

12/01/06

-2.5%

Orchid Cellmark, Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-10.4%

-1.0%

-92

-92

PYX

10/13/06

2.8%

Playtex Products, Inc.

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Personal & Household Products

-3.1%

-2.9%

-71

-84

MFLX

12/22/06

0.0%

Multi-Fineline Electronix, Inc.

Technology

Electronic Instruments & Controls

0.0%

-2.2%

-73

-69

MSN

07/07/06

1.3%

Emerson Radio Corp.

Consumer Cyclical

Audio & Video Equipment

-8.1%

-6.5%

-65

-63

FRN

12/08/06

0.3%

Friendly Ice Cream Corporation

Services

Restaurants

-5.1%

-1.7%

-30

-40

MAG

10/06/06

39.3%

Magnetek, Inc.

Technology

Electronic Instruments & Controls

-4.8%

0.4%

-18

-38

MOBE

11/24/06

7.4%

Mobility Electronics, Inc.

Technology

Computer Peripherals

-9.2%

-2.3%

-34

-37

AAWW

12/15/06

-3.3%

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings, Inc.

Transportation

Airline

-3.3%

-3.3%

-23

-23

CYTX

11/03/06

32.1%

Cytori Therapeutics Inc.

Health Care

Biotechnology & Drugs

-6.5%

-0.9%

-11

-20

GMTN

12/22/06

0.0%

Gander Mountain Company

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

0.0%

2.5%

-16

-15

PBY

10/06/06

7.7%

The Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

0.0%

9.6%

-7

-4

APN

09/08/06

61.8%

Applica Incorporated

Consumer Cyclical

Appliances & Tools

0.0%

11.8%

-8

-3

 

 

      Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 40% of their share price are listed in Table 3C.  These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration.  Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.

 

 

Table 3C

Capital Rich Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

EXAR

07/28/06

0.5%

Exar Corporation

Technology

Semiconductors

-8.9%

-5.4%

-79

-90

 

 

      Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 5.  Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.

 

 

Table 3D

Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

FIS

08/18/06

9.6%

Fidelity National Information Services

Services

Business Services

-5.2%

-1.5%

-48

-65

FNLY

09/08/06

15.3%

Finlay Enterprises, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Jewelry & Silverware

-3.2%

1.1%

-9

-18

 

 

      For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

 

 

Table 3E

Peter Lynch Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

VLCCF

12/22/06

0.0%

Knightsbridge Tankers Limited

Transportation

Water Transportation

0.0%

-15.3%

-94

-97

BTI

08/12/05

40.4%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-2.4%

0.4%

-29

-36

VIP

08/18/06

58.7%

Vimpel-Communications (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

-6.4%

9.4%

-33

-36

SKM

08/25/06

23.2%

SK Telecom Co., Ltd. (ADR)

Services

Communications Services

-2.6%

2.1%

-26

-35

NAT

11/17/06

1.5%

Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited

Transportation

Water Transportation

-2.1%

0.7%

-38

-31

PKX

08/11/06

39.3%

POSCO (ADR)

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-2.7%

7.3%

-17

-26

 

 

      For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30. 

 

 

Table 3F

Growth Momentum Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

LRCX

10/13/06

-3.6%

Lam Research Corporation

Technology

Semiconductors

-12.0%

-6.6%

-94

-97

APH

10/20/06

-7.5%

Amphenol Corporation

Technology

Electronic Instruments & Controls

-9.8%

-2.9%

-98

-94

ADS

10/20/06

1.4%

Alliance Data Systems

Technology

Computer Services

-7.2%

-4.1%

-68

-93

MDR

11/03/06

4.9%

McDermott International

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-7.7%

-3.6%

-60

-57

CSE

08/04/06

11.2%

CapitalSource, Inc.

Financial

Misc. Financial Services

-4.7%

-2.7%

-47

-57

GS

08/18/06

28.1%

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-3.4%

-0.9%

-40

-40

PD

12/08/06

-5.5%

Phelps Dodge Corporation

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-5.5%

-4.6%

-21

-25

IO

10/06/06

28.0%

Input/Output, Inc.

Technology

Scientific & Technical Instruments

-1.5%

-1.5%

-18

-20

VSEA

10/27/06

23.0%

Varian Semiconductor

Technology

Semiconductors

-0.3%

6.1%

-1

-4

 

 

      The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term.  Two requirements were added.  One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities.  The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.

 

 

Table 3G

Warren Buffett Value Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

BJS

11/03/06

-3.6%

BJ Services Company

Energy

Oil Well Services & Equipment

-12.6%

-7.4%

-93

-96

JOSB

09/22/06

-1.2%

Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc.

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-10.2%

-4.3%

-86

-93

JBHT

09/22/06

5.9%

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

-8.3%

-4.3%

-93

-93

IMO

10/06/06

11.1%

IMPERIAL OIL LTD

Energy

Oil & Gas - Integrated

-7.7%

-2.6%

-80

-90

EOG

11/10/06

-4.7%

EOG Resources, Inc.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-10.8%

-7.4%

-81

-89

THO

07/21/06

2.2%

Thor Industries, Inc.

Capital Goods

Mobile Homes & RVs

-8.3%

-2.6%

-58

-80

AEOS

03/10/06

56.0%

American Eagle Outfitters

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-5.2%

-3.4%

-71

-77

UNT

11/17/06

0.6%

Unit Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-6.7%

-0.9%

-73

-77

GTRC

10/06/06

3.5%

Guitar Center, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-7.1%

0.3%

-72

-73

STR

05/26/06

16.2%

Questar Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-7.5%

-2.0%

-60

-69

PCU

07/21/06

23.2%

Southern Copper Corporation

Basic Materials

Metal Mining

-9.4%

-0.8%

-69

-65

MTH

08/04/06

10.9%

Meritage Homes Corporation

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-8.8%

1.4%

-62

-64

TBL

07/07/06

22.4%

The Timberland Company

Consumer Cyclical

Footwear

-4.6%

-0.9%

-57

-59

APA

11/24/06

2.3%

Apache Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-4.6%

2.3%

-49

-55

SPF

07/14/06

13.0%

Standard Pacific Corp.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-9.7%

6.3%

-49

-55

PSUN

10/13/06

12.5%

Pacific Sunwear of California, Inc.

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-4.9%

0.9%

-61

-55

PETD

07/07/06

18.3%

Petroleum Development Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas - Integrated

-7.7%

3.7%

-55

-54

STLD

10/27/06

4.4%

Steel Dynamics, Inc.

Basic Materials

Iron & Steel

-9.9%

-2.7%

-51

-54

OSK

11/03/06

8.0%

Oshkosh Truck Corporation

Consumer Cyclical

Auto & Truck Manufacturers

-5.0%

0.0%

-54

-51

OXY

11/24/06

2.5%

Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-5.4%

2.5%

-42

-50

XOM

08/04/06

9.8%

Exxon Mobil Corporation

Energy

Oil & Gas - Integrated

-4.2%

4.2%

-43

-50

MDC

09/22/06

21.7%

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-3.7%

-1.8%

-42

-46

CCRT

09/08/06

38.0%

CompuCredit Corporation

Financial

Consumer Financial Services

-4.2%

3.2%

-32

-40

DHI

09/15/06

6.8%

D.R. Horton, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-5.6%

1.7%

-33

-37

BTI

12/30/05

25.7%

British American Tobacco (ADR)

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Tobacco

-2.4%

0.4%

-29

-36

TOL

09/22/06

13.6%

Toll Brothers, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-4.3%

1.9%

-28

-33

NAT

11/10/06

-1.2%

Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited

Transportation

Water Transportation

-2.1%

0.7%

-38

-31

RS

08/11/06

19.0%

Reliance Steel & Aluminum

Basic Materials

Misc. Fabricated Products

-4.9%

3.0%

-25

-25

CRDN

08/11/06

27.7%

Ceradyne, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-0.2%

3.9%

-32

-18

ALD

10/13/06

4.7%

Allied Capital Corporation

Financial

Investment Services

-0.5%

2.9%

-14

-13

 

 

 

      Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H.  A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less. 

 

 

Table 3H

Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

UGI

12/30/05

31.1%

UGI Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-4.3%

-2.1%

-89

-96

WGL

12/23/05

6.9%

WGL Holdings, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-2.7%

-2.2%

-72

-80

ATO

04/01/05

18.2%

Atmos Energy Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-3.5%

-2.3%

-74

-79

VVC

03/03/06

8.2%

Vectren Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-3.9%

-0.4%

-64

-68

SRE

01/10/05

52.7%

Sempra Energy

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-2.8%

1.3%

-53

-53

UU

06/10/05

25.1%

United Utilities PLC (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-3.3%

2.0%

-39

-41

OKE

11/11/05

60.3%

ONEOK, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-2.6%

2.7%

-43

-40

ATG

10/21/05

17.6%

AGL Resources Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-2.0%

3.1%

-40

-40

OTTR

06/09/06

15.9%

Otter Tail Corporation

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-2.0%

0.0%

-48

-36

EON

03/10/06

19.8%

E.ON AG (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-3.2%

4.9%

-16

-34

PGN

01/10/05

10.9%

Progress Energy, Inc.

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-0.9%

2.3%

-16

-20

WPS

05/26/06

9.1%

WPS Resources Corporation

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-0.7%

1.4%

-22

-19

KEP

10/20/06

15.6%

Korea Electric Power Corporation (ADR)

Utilities

Electric Utilities

-0.9%

5.0%

-12

-16

 

 

 

      Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I. 

 

 

Table 3I

John Templeton Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

CHRW

11/03/06

-4.3%

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.

Transportation

Misc. Transportation

-10.9%

-7.5%

-93

-100

HAR

08/18/06

16.1%

Harman International Industries Inc./DE/

Consumer Cyclical

Audio & Video Equipment

-7.9%

-6.7%

-99

-99

BJS

11/03/06

-3.6%

BJ Services Company

Energy

Oil Well Services & Equipment

-12.6%

-7.4%

-93

-96

CHS

09/15/06

4.7%

Chico's FAS, Inc.

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-13.2%

-8.5%

-95

-96

BBBY

07/21/06

16.6%

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-7.8%

-3.1%

-82

-94

JBHT

09/22/06

5.9%

J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

Transportation

Trucking

-8.3%

-3.4%

-93

-93

WSO

07/28/06

5.2%

Watsco, Incorporated

Capital Goods

Misc. Capital Goods

-12.3%

-12.2%

-94

-93

PNR

07/28/06

9.0%

Pentair, Inc.

Conglomerates

Conglomerates

-6.8%

-6.8%

-93

-87

USTR

08/11/06

-0.9%

United Stationers Inc.

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Office Supplies

-6.9%

-5.9%

-81

-85

JNJ

02/17/06

11.1%

Johnson & Johnson

Health Care

Major Drugs

-5.0%

-1.0%

-67

-82

THO

08/25/06

9.9%

Thor Industries, Inc.

Capital Goods

Mobile Homes & RVs

-8.3%

-2.6%

-58

-80

MMM

11/10/06

-1.1%

3M Company

Conglomerates

Conglomerates

-4.0%

0.1%

-68

-78

IEX

08/11/06

10.6%

IDEX Corporation

Capital Goods

Misc. Capital Goods

-4.5%

-1.3%

-68

-76

LRW

10/27/06

6.0%

Labor Ready, Inc.

Services

Business Services

-6.9%

-3.6%

-70

-75

EWBC

12/30/05

-4.0%

East West Bancorp, Inc.

Financial

Regional Banks

-14.3%

-3.0%

-76

-75

HZO

08/11/06

27.8%

MarineMax, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-10.6%

-2.9%

-76

-70

WSM

09/01/06

7.7%

Williams-Sonoma, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-9.4%

0.6%

-65

-68

GISX

12/30/05

23.0%

Global Imaging Systems, Inc.

Technology

Office Equipment

-7.2%

-0.6%

-39

-61

SPF

09/15/06

5.0%

Standard Pacific Corp.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-9.7%

6.3%

-49

-55

LOW

09/08/06

11.7%

Lowe's Companies, Inc.

Services

Retail (Home Improvement)

-3.8%

-3.1%

-54

-48

HIBB

07/21/06

55.7%

Hibbett Sporting Goods, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-5.5%

-2.5%

-48

-46

BZH

11/24/06

4.7%

Beazer Homes USA, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-5.1%

4.7%

-40

-44

SPLS

05/26/06

11.3%

Staples, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-3.2%

4.0%

-38

-44

RYL

08/11/06

30.7%

The Ryland Group, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-7.4%

4.2%

-40

-42

ORLY

09/01/06

7.7%

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

Services

Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel)

-6.7%

-0.1%

-46

-41

DHI

07/14/06

22.6%

D.R. Horton, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-5.6%

1.7%

-33

-37

GBCI

05/05/06

18.2%

Glacier Bancorp, Inc.

Financial

Regional Banks

-2.1%

3.7%

-36

-37

TOL

12/01/06

-1.8%

Toll Brothers, Inc.

Capital Goods

Construction Services

-4.3%

1.9%

-28

-33

COH

07/28/06

54.9%

Coach, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical

Apparel/Accessories

-1.6%

1.9%

-19

-24

CHD

11/18/05

28.4%

Church & Dwight Co., Inc.

Consumer Non-Cyclical

Personal & Household Products

-0.2%

1.8%

-17

-21

HHS

08/18/06

2.7%

Harte-Hanks, Inc.

Services

Printing & Publishing

-2.6%

3.5%

-10

-20

UNH

08/25/06

5.1%

UnitedHealth Group Inc.

Financial

Insurance (Accident & Health)

-0.9%

14.4%

-6

-12

 

 

 

      Optionable stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J. 

 

 

Table 3J

Martin Zweig Watch List

Stock

Reference

% Chg

Company

Sector

Industry

% from Max

Monthly % Gain

%R1

%R2

MDU

01/27/06

9.8%

MDU Resources Group, Inc.

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-5.4%

-1.6%

-88

-95

TDY

10/27/06

-7.3%

Teledyne Technologies Incorporated

Services

Business Services

-7.8%

-6.1%

-80

-92

ESI

11/04/05

13.5%

ITT Educational Services, Inc.

Services

Schools

-5.1%

-4.5%

-84

-89

RRC

11/24/06

-1.2%

Range Resources Corp.

Energy

Oil & Gas Operations

-11.5%

-1.2%

-82

-85

AEOS

12/22/06

0.0%

American Eagle Outfitters

Services

Retail (Apparel)

0.0%

-3.4%

-71

-77

DHR

07/21/06

15.5%

Danaher Corporation

Technology

Scientific & Technical Instruments

-3.4%

-2.8%

-63

-74

CAM

11/17/06

1.7%

Cameron International Corporation

Energy

Oil Well Services & Equipment

-6.7%

1.0%

-66

-69

ACO

12/08/06

-3.9%

AMCOL International Corporation

Capital Goods

Construction - Raw Materials

-5.2%

-1.2%

-71

-67

PCAR

07/28/06

21.5%

PACCAR Inc

Consumer Cyclical

Auto & Truck Manufacturers

-4.3%

0.6%

-56

-65

BEAV

11/17/06

-5.9%

BE Aerospace, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-7.1%

-6.2%

-52

-63

TROW

07/28/06

8.4%

T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-9.3%

-0.5%

-57

-62

SII

12/08/06

-3.6%

Smith International, Inc.

Energy

Oil Well Services & Equipment

-5.6%

2.1%

-51

-57

WDC

12/15/06

0.5%

Western Digital Corp.

Technology

Computer Storage Devices

-2.6%

-3.8%

-44

-51

ANF

11/17/06

0.1%

Abercrombie & Fitch Co.

Services

Retail (Apparel)

-0.2%

0.9%

-59

-51

RL

08/11/06

39.4%

Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation

Consumer Cyclical

Apparel/Accessories

-4.0%

2.2%

-43

-50

GS

06/16/06

37.6%

Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-3.4%

-1.7%

-40

-40

LYO

10/27/06

-5.1%

Lyondell Chemical Company

Basic Materials

Chemical Manufacturing

-5.1%

4.2%

-33

-36

PCP

08/11/06

33.6%

Precision Castparts Corp.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-2.5%

2.2%

-16

-28

BSC

06/16/06

23.4%

The Bear Stearns Companies Inc.

Financial

Investment Services

-1.9%

2.3%

-16

-23

IO

08/25/06

37.1%

Input/Output, Inc.

Technology

Scientific & Technical Instruments

-1.5%

20.1%

-18

-20

EGN

10/27/06

10.4%

Energen Corporation

Utilities

Natural Gas Utilities

-1.1%

4.1%

-19

-19

CRDN

11/17/06

7.4%

Ceradyne, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-0.2%

3.9%

-32

-18

COL

11/17/06

5.5%

Rockwell Collins, Inc.

Capital Goods

Aerospace and Defense

-1.0%

4.3%

-7

-16

TSS

10/20/06

12.4%

Total System Services

Technology

Computer Services

-1.0%

2.6%

-11

-13

 

 

 

 

4.0           Results & Conclusions

 

      This section highlights trading performance.  Only a summary is provided here to save space.  Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the website.

 

Major Indices Year to Date

Relative to SMA 200

200 Day High

Relative to High

 

12/30/05

12/23/06

% Chg

12/23/06

Prior Week

DOW

10717.5

12,343.22

15.17%

7.27%

8.38%

12471.30

-1.03%

NASDAQ

2205.32

2,401.18

8.88%

6.41%

9.00%

2465.98

-2.63%

S&P500

1248.29

1,410.76

13.02%

7.17%

8.69%

1427.09

-1.14%

Russell 2K

673.22

780.82

15.98%

5.84%

7.95%

797.42

-2.08%

NYSE

7753.95

9062.13

16.87%

7.59%

9.07%

9147.20

-0.93%

Average

 

 

13.98%

6.86%

8.62%

 

-1.56%

 

4.1 Options Trading

 

 

 

Average Profit per Trade -1.7%

 

Average Hold Time 6.1 days

 

 

4.2 Stock Trading

 

 

Stock Trading for 2006 ($10.5K Initial Capital)

Number of Closed trades in 2006 =

13

 

Average Trade Size =

$1,000.00

 

Total Closed Position Share costs =

$13,000.00

 

Gross Profit on Closed Positions =

$47.74

0.4%

Number of Open Positions =

6

 

Gross Profit on Open Positions =

$255.10

4.3%

Broker Commission ($9.99/trade) =

-$319.68

 

Subscription Cost to date =

-$120.00

 

Net Profit After Expenses =

-$136.84

-1.3%

Cash =

$4,547.74

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Appendix - Investment Conference Schedule

        Below are links to conference registration sites.   

 

 

 

 

Conference Search

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