Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter
______________________________________________________________________________
Issue No. 121 April 9, 2007 Prescott, Arizona Editor@WiserTrader.com
______________________________________________________________________________
1.0 Trading
The major indices gained an average of 1.7% this week.
|
Index |
Last Week |
This Week |
% Change |
|
DOW |
12354.3 |
12,560.20 |
1.67% |
|
NASDAQ |
2421.64 |
2,471.34 |
2.05% |
|
S&P500 |
1420.86 |
1,443.76 |
1.61% |
|
Russell 2K |
800.71 |
813.35 |
1.58% |
|
NYSE |
9261.82 |
9,426.57 |
1.78% |
|
Average |
|
|
1.74% |
1.1 Settled Emotions
The S&P 500 in Figure 1A gained 1.6% for the week. Most major sectors gained. Home construction was flat and regional banks lost a fraction of a percent. The average 10-period Williams-%R for the above five indices closed the week at minus four with a 200-day moving average of -33. The range of Williams-%R values is nine units. Over the past 10 trading days, the 5-index average was up eight days with a net average gain of 0.83%.
FIGURE 1A
The NASDAQ in Figure 1B gained 2.05% for the week. Investor emotions have settled down a bit judging by the slightly lower correlation between stocks and the major averages. Reduced geopolitical tensions led to a relaxing of oil prices. This combined with favorable employment numbers left the market in a good mood as the week ended.
FIGURE 1B
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2.0 Market Analysis
Key industry ETF’s in Table 2A are Biotech and Semiconductors, which confirm the NASDAQ. Transportation confirms the Dow Jones Industrial Average according to Dow Theory. Banking and Financials are confirming indicators for the S&P 500. Gold and Housing are respective indicators for the inverse health of the currency (inflation) and the capacity for consumer spending.
Table 2A
Indices, Key Industry ETF’s and Sector SPDR’s
|
|
1 month |
1 wk ago |
2 wks ago |
3 wks ago |
4 wks ago |
|
Dow Jones Industrial Index |
2.3% |
1.7% |
-1.0% |
3.1% |
-1.4% |
|
NASDAQ Composite Index |
3.5% |
2.1% |
-1.1% |
3.2% |
-0.6% |
|
S & P 500 Index |
2.9% |
1.6% |
-1.1% |
3.5% |
-1.1% |
|
NYSE Composite Index |
3.6% |
1.8% |
-0.8% |
4.0% |
-1.2% |
|
Russell 2000 Index |
3.6% |
1.6% |
-1.1% |
3.9% |
-0.8% |
|
HGX, Phil. Housing Index |
-6.0% |
0.4% |
-5.0% |
2.5% |
-3.8% |
|
IYR, Real Estate |
-0.3% |
1.5% |
-2.1% |
1.9% |
-1.5% |
|
GLD, GOLD |
4.1% |
1.7% |
0.9% |
0.8% |
0.6% |
|
RKH, Banking |
-0.6% |
0.1% |
-2.0% |
3.4% |
-2.1% |
|
IYT, Transportation |
1.4% |
2.4% |
-3.6% |
4.0% |
-1.2% |
|
SMH, Semiconductors |
-1.1% |
2.5% |
-2.8% |
0.8% |
-1.5% |
|
BBH, Biotechnology |
2.3% |
2.5% |
-1.1% |
2.1% |
-1.0% |
|
OIH, Oil Infrastructure |
6.8% |
2.6% |
-0.9% |
6.0% |
-1.0% |
|
XLE, Energy |
7.6% |
2.7% |
-0.2% |
6.8% |
-1.8% |
|
XLU, Utilities |
6.5% |
2.3% |
-0.1% |
3.8% |
0.5% |
|
XLB, Materials |
3.1% |
1.1% |
-0.4% |
3.0% |
-0.6% |
|
XLI, Industrial |
1.1% |
0.8% |
-2.2% |
3.1% |
-0.6% |
|
XLK, Technology |
3.7% |
2.3% |
-1.1% |
2.7% |
-0.2% |
|
XLV, Healthcare |
2.9% |
2.9% |
-0.8% |
2.2% |
-1.3% |
|
XLF, Financials |
-0.3% |
0.5% |
-1.7% |
3.4% |
-2.4% |
|
XLP, Consumer Staples |
3.3% |
1.7% |
-0.5% |
3.3% |
-1.1% |
|
XLY, Consumer Discretionary |
1.5% |
2.3% |
-1.8% |
3.6% |
-2.5% |
The volatility indexes and put/call ratio are listed in Table 2B.
Table 2B
Sentiment
|
Contrarian Indicator |
Current |
Last Week |
2 Weeks Ago |
Complacent |
Cautious |
|
VIX ** |
13.2 |
14.6 |
13.0 |
< 20 |
> 50 |
|
VXN *** |
18.8 |
18.2 |
17.2 |
< 30 |
> 70 |
|
CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio |
0.77 |
1.20 |
0.92 |
< 0.40 |
> 0.75 |
|
CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio |
0.53 |
0.66 |
0.64 |
< 0.55 |
> 0.70 |
|
** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal. *** Below 20 day SMA = Short-term buy signal. |
|||||
Figure 2A compares the major averages with key ETF’s and Sector SPDRs.
FIGURE 2A
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Table 2C
Market Summary
Industry performance is based on the Yahoo Industry Classification System
Major Indices For the Past Week: Dow Jones +1.7% NASDAQ +2.1% S&P500 Index +1.6% Russell 2000 +1.6% NYSE +1.8% 30 Year Bond 4.868% 10 Year Note 4.674% FOMC Rate 5.250% Leading Industries For the Past Week: Lagging Industries For the Past Week: |
Leading Industries For the Past Month: Lagging Industries For the Past Month: Crude Oil $64.28 Gold for the past 30 days: USD +3.84% CAD +2.08% CHF +3.66% GBP +2.12% EUR +2.45% JPY +4.86% |
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3.0 Procedure
The following watch lists contain stock candidates for consideration. They are not necessarily trades. Categories include checklists for insider buying and cash rich companies, as well as, filters that employ stock picking methods used by master traders. The information is not meant to imply any endorsement or sponsorship by these master traders.
Current stock rankings are based on the degree to which stocks are overbought or over sold based on the 28-period Williams %R for the past two trading days. Two columns are labeled “%R1” and “%R2” with “%R2” indicating the Williams %R for the most recent trading day. Of course, values more negative than -80 are oversold and those less negative than -20 are overbought.
One should keep in mind that oversold stocks are not necessarily ready to move upward. They could very well be in a condition of continuous decline. The lists are meant to serve as a starting point for further due diligence.
A column labeled “Monthly % Gain” was added to show the inverse relationship between price action over the past month and the Williams %R. The change from a 10-period Williams %R with a weekly percent change to a 28-period Williams %R with a monthly percent change was done to reflect a longer term view.
Watchlist performance is based on weekly closing prices on Friday. The “Reference” is the date that a stock passed the indicated filter and was first added to or returned to the list. The “% Change” is how the price has changed since the reference date. Stocks that are down 10% or more after being listed are removed for a period of about two months. The “% from Max” is the percentage the price has declined from the maximum price reached since the reference date. Stocks that are down 8% from their highs after being listed are flagged in yellow. Stocks that are down 15% from their highs after being listed are removed for two months. More information on filters is available on the web site.
A performance summary of filtering techniques for checklists and master trader selection methods is given in Table 3A. The column “Avg. Gain in 2007” includes gains and losses for stocks that have been removed from the lists. The other columns only include stocks that are currently listed.
Table 3A
Stock Filter Summary
|
Filter |
Avg. % Change Since Listed |
Avg. Gain in 2007 |
1 Month |
1 Week Ago |
2 weeks Ago |
3 Weeks Ago |
4 Weeks Ago |
|
Net Insider Buying |
8.7% |
1.2% |
6.8% |
3.2% |
3.8% |
-0.6% |
0.5% |
|
Cash Rich Companies |
1.5% |
5.5% |
1.6% |
0.4% |
1.7% |
-0.9% |
0.5% |
|
Low Price to Free Cash Flow |
0.2% |
-1.2% |
-4.7% |
-1.0% |
-1.6% |
0.3% |
-2.6% |
|
Growth Momentum Stocks |
15.5% |
-0.7% |
7.5% |
3.5% |
-1.7% |
5.7% |
0.0% |
|
Lynch Stocks |
31.5% |
11.1% |
7.5% |
2.5% |
1.1% |
4.2% |
-0.5% |
|
Buffett Stocks |
21.5% |
5.4% |
7.9% |
2.4% |
0.1% |
5.6% |
-0.3% |
|
Graham Stocks |
26.5% |
3.1% |
6.0% |
1.6% |
-0.3% |
3.3% |
1.3% |
|
Templeton Stocks |
15.5% |
2.1% |
2.0% |
1.2% |
-1.9% |
4.3% |
-1.5% |
|
Zweig Stocks |
21.7% |
5.1% |
5.5% |
2.0% |
-1.2% |
4.3% |
0.3% |
|
Micro Cap Value Stocks |
3.8% |
2.5% |
-0.4% |
0.8% |
-1.6% |
3.7% |
-3.1% |
|
Average |
15.8% |
3.5% |
4.4% |
1.7% |
0.0% |
2.9% |
-0.3% |
Key
|
Passed Recent Filter |
|
Price declined by half of stop loss setting |
|
Oversold based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
|
Overbought based on Williams %R (%R2 is most recent) |
Companies that have experienced net insider buying within the past 6 months of 5% or more of issued stock are listed in Table 3B. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. This list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3B
Net Insider Buying Check List
|
Stock |
Reference Date |
% Chg |
Gain in 2007 |
Company |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
TRXI |
03/16/07 |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
TRX Inc. |
Computer Services |
-0.3% |
-5.0% |
-85 |
-64 |
|
MOBE |
03/02/07 |
5.7% |
5.7% |
Mobility Electronics, Inc. |
Computer Peripherals |
-3.9% |
1.9% |
-60 |
-52 |
|
BCSI |
03/16/07 |
-2.6% |
-2.6% |
Blue Coat Systems, Inc. |
Computer Networks |
-7.7% |
-2.7% |
-32 |
-44 |
|
TWW |
03/30/07 |
0.9% |
0.9% |
Terremark Worldwide, Inc. |
Communications Services |
-0.4% |
9.4% |
-43 |
-40 |
|
PWEI |
01/19/07 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
PW Eagle, Inc. |
Fabricated Plastic & Rubber |
-1.6% |
-1.3% |
-37 |
-36 |
|
RGN |
12/29/06 |
14.6% |
14.6% |
RegeneRx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
-2.5% |
6.3% |
-53 |
-32 |
|
PCYC |
03/02/07 |
7.2% |
7.2% |
Pharmacyclics, Inc. |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
0.0% |
11.0% |
-71 |
-22 |
|
MMLP |
12/29/06 |
21.1% |
21.1% |
Martin Midstream Partners L.P. |
Water Transportation |
1.8% |
3.1% |
-34 |
-15 |
|
NTEC |
03/23/07 |
31.8% |
31.8% |
Neose Technologies, Inc. |
Biotechnology & Drugs |
0.0% |
0.0% |
-9 |
-9 |
Companies with net cash positions that comprise at least 30% of their share price are listed in Table 3C. Previously, the screen looked for companies having cash positions comprising 40% of their share price but this produced very few candidates. These stocks should also appear in one of the master trader screens or meet additional screening criteria before being given serious consideration. Again, this list is a mixture of stocks that are optionable and those that are not.
Table 3C
Capital Rich Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference Date |
% Chg |
Gain in 2007 |
Company |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
WSC |
02/09/07 |
-5.7% |
-5.7% |
Wesco Financial Corporation |
Conglomerates |
-8.0% |
0.2% |
-53 |
-56 |
|
CLCT |
02/09/07 |
8.7% |
8.7% |
Collectors Universe, Inc. |
Business Services |
-0.7% |
3.0% |
-16 |
-4 |
Table 3D was added to contain companies having a low price to free cash flow (P-FCF) less than 6 (prior to 2/23/07 this number was less than 5). Companies having P-FCF less than 10 are typically capable of financing the purchase of all their outstanding shares of stock.
Table 3D
Price to Free Cash Flow Companies Check List
|
Stock |
Reference Date |
% Chg |
Gain in 2007 |
Company |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
AXR |
04/06/07 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
AMREP Corporation |
Business Services |
0.0% |
-4.4% |
-98 |
-89 |
|
MEOH |
04/06/07 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
METHANEX CORPORATION |
Chemical Manufacturing |
0.0% |
1.4% |
-90 |
-86 |
|
HTRN |
03/30/07 |
-1.9% |
-1.9% |
HealthTronics Inc. |
Medical Equipment & Supplies |
-3.3% |
-1.9% |
-72 |
-82 |
|
ALK |
03/02/07 |
-2.2% |
-2.2% |
Alaska Air Group, Inc. |
Airline |
-3.7% |
1.3% |
-80 |
-73 |
|
Y |
03/16/07 |
-2.4% |
-2.4% |
Alleghany Corporation |
Conglomerates |
-3.7% |
1.6% |
-71 |
-60 |
|
CRC |
02/23/07 |
8.0% |
8.0% |
Chromcraft Revington, Inc. |
Furniture & Fixtures |
-4.1% |
-4.1% |
-39 |
-38 |
For the Peter Lynch style screen in Table 3E, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3E
Peter Lynch Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference Date |
% Chg |
Gain in 2007 |
Company |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
AZN |
03/02/07 |
1.4% |
1.4% |
AstraZeneca plc (ADR) |
Major Drugs |
-3.7% |
-3.5% |
-90 |
-68 |
|
SAP |
01/26/07 |
1.1% |
1.1% |
SAP AG (ADR) |
Software & Programming |
-1.9% |
1.5% |
-90 |
-47 |
|
ERF |
03/30/07 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
ENERPLUS RESOURCES FUND SR G TR UNITS |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-0.2% |
1.6% |
-35 |
-38 |
|
RIO |
12/29/06 |
33.7% |
33.7% |
Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (ADR) |
Metal Mining |
5.7% |
13.7% |
-54 |
-33 |
|
NAT |
11/17/06 |
8.7% |
5.8% |
Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited |
Water Transportation |
-3.8% |
5.9% |
-17 |
-18 |
|
VIP |
08/18/06 |
100.2% |
22.7% |
Vimpel-Communications (ADR) |
Communications Services |
-0.8% |
10.5% |
-18 |
-10 |
|
BTI |
08/12/05 |
56.8% |
11.5% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Tobacco |
-0.3% |
5.4% |
-12 |
-9 |
|
PKX |
08/11/06 |
79.4% |
28.7% |
POSCO (ADR) |
Iron & Steel |
-0.5% |
6.7% |
-9 |
-5 |
|
PBR |
01/05/07 |
7.1% |
7.1% |
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (ADR) |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
0.8% |
13.2% |
-13 |
0 |
|
VLCCF |
12/22/06 |
26.1% |
22.6% |
Knightsbridge Tankers Limited |
Water Transportation |
2.6% |
20.0% |
-3 |
0 |
For the Growth Momentum screen in Table 3F, the number of selections is reduced by selecting only optionable stocks having P/E’s less than 30.
Table 3F
Growth Momentum Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference Date |
% Chg |
Gain in 2007 |
Company |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
GS |
08/18/06 |
34.4% |
4.3% |
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
Investment Services |
-5.9% |
0.6% |
-49 |
-45 |
|
SKX |
02/23/07 |
-6.4% |
-6.4% |
Skechers U.S.A., Inc. |
Footwear |
-6.4% |
3.3% |
-38 |
-37 |
|
HC |
03/02/07 |
7.2% |
7.2% |
Hanover Compressor Company |
Rental & Leasing |
0.7% |
2.4% |
-39 |
-20 |
|
PCU |
03/30/07 |
4.5% |
4.5% |
Southern Copper Corporation |
Metal Mining |
-0.3% |
4.5% |
-26 |
-11 |
|
VIP |
02/16/07 |
12.2% |
12.2% |
Vimpel-Communications (ADR) |
Communications Services |
-0.8% |
2.1% |
-18 |
-10 |
|
APH |
10/20/06 |
0.6% |
9.3% |
Amphenol Corporation |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
-2.0% |
5.1% |
-60 |
-8 |
|
VSEA |
10/27/06 |
55.8% |
24.8% |
Varian Semiconductor |
Semiconductors |
0.0% |
6.4% |
-10 |
-7 |
The filter for Warren Buffet style stock picking in Table 3G is for the intermediate to long term. Two requirements were added. One was to include only optionable stocks in order to find LEAPS opportunities. The other requirement was to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3G
Warren Buffett Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference Date |
% Chg |
Gain in 2007 |
Company |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
EWBC |
01/26/07 |
-4.0% |
-4.0% |
East West Bancorp, Inc. |
Regional Banks |
-6.5% |
-1.6% |
-64 |
-71 |
|
AEO |
03/10/06 |
52.4% |
-4.2% |
American Eagle Outfitters |
Retail (Apparel) |
-12.9% |
-1.2% |
-62 |
-64 |
|
WIRE |
02/09/07 |
7.5% |
7.5% |
Encore Wire Corporation |
Misc. Fabricated Products |
-7.9% |
5.4% |
-62 |
-62 |
|
OSK |
11/03/06 |
20.5% |
10.3% |
Oshkosh Truck Corporation |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-5.8% |
2.7% |
-59 |
-49 |
|
COG |
02/16/07 |
3.5% |
3.5% |
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-1.5% |
3.7% |
-23 |
-23 |
|
GTRC |
10/06/06 |
11.3% |
4.0% |
Guitar Center, Inc. |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-2.6% |
8.0% |
-57 |
-21 |
|
NAT |
11/10/06 |
5.8% |
5.8% |
Nordic American Tanker Shipping Limited |
Water Transportation |
-3.8% |
5.9% |
-17 |
-18 |
|
BJS |
03/16/07 |
4.7% |
4.7% |
BJ Services Company |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-0.7% |
1.5% |
-25 |
-12 |
|
PCU |
07/21/06 |
75.1% |
38.9% |
Southern Copper Corporation |
Metal Mining |
-0.3% |
8.4% |
-26 |
-11 |
|
BTI |
12/30/05 |
40.3% |
11.5% |
British American Tobacco (ADR) |
Tobacco |
-0.3% |
5.4% |
-12 |
-9 |
|
OXY |
11/24/06 |
4.2% |
2.3% |
Occidental Petroleum Corporation |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-3.8% |
7.8% |
-16 |
-9 |
|
NUE |
02/23/07 |
3.3% |
3.3% |
Nucor Corporation |
Iron & Steel |
0.0% |
3.5% |
-13 |
-8 |
|
JOSB |
09/22/06 |
19.0% |
20.7% |
Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc. |
Retail (Apparel) |
-0.8% |
12.6% |
-6 |
-8 |
|
PETD |
07/07/06 |
48.7% |
25.7% |
Petroleum Development Corporation |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-1.1% |
6.9% |
-16 |
-7 |
|
JBHT |
09/22/06 |
42.5% |
34.5% |
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. |
Trucking |
-0.5% |
5.6% |
-15 |
-6 |
|
BHI |
02/16/07 |
4.1% |
4.1% |
Baker Hughes Incorporated |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
0.7% |
4.3% |
-13 |
-5 |
|
OMM |
02/23/07 |
19.7% |
19.7% |
OMI Corporation |
Water Transportation |
-0.1% |
21.2% |
-7 |
-5 |
|
STLD |
10/27/06 |
43.1% |
34.9% |
Steel Dynamics, Inc. |
Iron & Steel |
1.2% |
12.9% |
-10 |
-5 |
|
UNT |
11/17/06 |
6.3% |
7.2% |
Unit Corporation |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-1.4% |
7.2% |
-15 |
-3 |
|
MBT |
12/29/06 |
17.0% |
17.0% |
Mobile TeleSystems OJSC (ADR) |
Communications Services |
-0.2% |
15.4% |
-18 |
-1 |
|
NE |
01/26/07 |
13.8% |
13.8% |
Noble Corporation |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
0.4% |
9.9% |
-21 |
-1 |
|
APA |
11/24/06 |
10.6% |
8.4% |
Apache Corporation |
Oil & Gas Operations |
-1.2% |
5.4% |
-7 |
0 |
|
EGN |
09/15/06 |
33.3% |
13.8% |
Energen Corporation |
Natural Gas Utilities |
2.3% |
11.9% |
-11 |
0 |
|
EOG |
11/10/06 |
10.8% |
19.7% |
EOG Resources, Inc. |
Oil & Gas Operations |
3.0% |
11.7% |
-19 |
0 |
|
RS |
08/11/06 |
56.5% |
29.4% |
Reliance Steel & Aluminum |
Misc. Fabricated Products |
1.0% |
13.0% |
-9 |
0 |
|
STR |
05/26/06 |
29.5% |
11.8% |
Questar Corporation |
Oil & Gas Operations |
1.7% |
9.8% |
-17 |
0 |
|
WHQ |
02/02/07 |
9.2% |
9.2% |
W-H Energy Services, Inc. |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
1.3% |
14.8% |
-9 |
0 |
|
XOM |
08/04/06 |
12.4% |
0.8% |
Exxon Mobil Corporation |
Oil & Gas - Integrated |
-1.9% |
8.6% |
-12 |
0 |
Stocks from Benjamin Graham’s style of utility investing are listed in Table 3H. A requirement was added to include only those stocks having a PE of 17 or less.
Table 3H
Benjamin Graham Utility Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference Date |
% Chg |
Gain in 2007 |
Company |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
TEG |
03/02/07 |
1.0% |
1.0% |
Integrys Energy Group, Inc. |
Electric Utilities |
-1.0% |
3.9% |
-49 |
-54 |
|
ATO |
04/01/05 |
17.4% |
-0.9% |
Atmos Energy Corporation |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-4.2% |
1.4% |
-62 |
-46 |
|
WGL |
12/23/05 |
5.5% |
-1.3% |
WGL Holdings, Inc. |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-3.9% |
4.5% |
-39 |
-32 |
|
SRE |
01/10/05 |
69.8% |
9.6% |
Sempra Energy |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-1.4% |
2.6% |
-39 |
-31 |
|
PGN |
01/10/05 |
15.3% |
3.5% |
Progress Energy, Inc. |
Electric Utilities |
-0.7% |
5.3% |
-31 |
-21 |
|
LG |
03/02/07 |
3.3% |
3.3% |
The Laclede Group, Inc. |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-0.2% |
5.7% |
-23 |
-18 |
|
OKE |
11/11/05 |
68.8% |
5.3% |
ONEOK, Inc. |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-1.5% |
5.5% |
-16 |
-13 |
|
ATG |
10/21/05 |
31.0% |
11.4% |
AGL Resources Inc. |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-0.1% |
8.4% |
0 |
-7 |
|
VVC |
03/03/06 |
10.7% |
1.7% |
Vectren Corporation |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-1.7% |
3.9% |
-12 |
-5 |
|
UGI |
12/30/05 |
31.7% |
-0.5% |
UGI Corporation |
Natural Gas Utilities |
-3.9% |
7.0% |
-18 |
-4 |
|
OTTR |
06/09/06 |
31.0% |
12.4% |
Otter Tail Corporation |
Electric Utilities |
-0.1% |
9.8% |
-19 |
-1 |
|
EON |
03/10/06 |
33.1% |
7.9% |
E.ON AG (ADR) |
Electric Utilities |
0.5% |
12.2% |
-40 |
0 |
|
UU |
06/10/05 |
25.3% |
-1.3% |
United Utilities PLC (ADR) |
Electric Utilities |
-3.2% |
7.4% |
-2 |
0 |
Optionable stocks from John Templeton’s style of investing are listed in Table 3I.
Table 3I
John Templeton Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference Date |
% Chg |
Gain in 2007 |
Company |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
HHS |
08/18/06 |
3.0% |
-2.9% |
Harte-Hanks, Inc. |
Printing & Publishing |
-6.0% |
-3.2% |
-95 |
-85 |
|
FDX |
03/16/07 |
-2.1% |
-2.1% |
FedEx Corporation |
Air Courier |
-3.5% |
-5.1% |
-92 |
-77 |
|
LRW |
10/27/06 |
1.4% |
-3.7% |
Labor Ready, Inc. |
Business Services |
-10.9% |
-7.1% |
-28 |
-77 |
|
GGG |
12/29/06 |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
Graco Inc. |
Misc. Capital Goods |
-6.8% |
0.2% |
-82 |
-76 |
|
LOW |
09/08/06 |
15.2% |
0.8% |
Lowe's Companies, Inc. |
Retail (Home Improvement) |
-10.1% |
-0.3% |
-72 |
-74 |
|
EWBC |
12/30/05 |
-0.2% |
2.8% |
East West Bancorp, Inc. |
Regional Banks |
-11.0% |
-1.6% |
-64 |
-71 |
|
JNJ |
02/17/06 |
4.2% |
-6.8% |
Johnson & Johnson |
Major Drugs |
-10.9% |
2.1% |
-95 |
-65 |
|
HAR |
08/18/06 |
16.0% |
-0.3% |
Harman International Industries Inc./DE/ |
Audio & Video Equipment |
-7.9% |
1.1% |
-97 |
-62 |
|
CHRW |
11/03/06 |
18.5% |
19.4% |
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. |
Misc. Transportation |
-10.2% |
0.5% |
-59 |
-62 |
|
GBCI |
05/05/06 |
16.1% |
-2.3% |
Glacier Bancorp, Inc. |
Regional Banks |
-5.6% |
0.2% |
-56 |
-61 |
|
PNR |
07/28/06 |
8.5% |
-1.5% |
Pentair, Inc. |
Conglomerates |
-7.1% |
2.6% |
-52 |
-58 |
|
ORLY |
09/01/06 |
10.3% |
3.8% |
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-4.7% |
1.6% |
-56 |
-58 |
|
OSK |
12/29/06 |
10.3% |
10.3% |
Oshkosh Truck Corporation |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-5.8% |
2.7% |
-59 |
-49 |
|
TSCO |
12/29/06 |
15.9% |
15.9% |
Tractor Supply Company |
Retail (Home Improvement) |
-3.6% |
-2.8% |
-44 |
-48 |
|
SPLS |
05/26/06 |
10.1% |
-1.2% |
Staples, Inc. |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-4.3% |
1.3% |
-66 |
-44 |
|
BBBY |
07/21/06 |
26.3% |
8.2% |
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-4.2% |
2.8% |
-58 |
-39 |
|
BBY |
04/06/07 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Best Buy Co., Inc. |
Retail (Technology) |
0.0% |
0.2% |
-45 |
-34 |
|
UNH |
08/25/06 |
8.7% |
3.0% |
UnitedHealth Group Inc. |
Insurance (Accident & Health) |
-2.7% |
4.4% |
-55 |
-29 |
|
MMM |
11/10/06 |
-3.1% |
-1.5% |
3M Company |
Conglomerates |
-6.0% |
0.4% |
-33 |
-27 |
|
CHD |
11/18/05 |
54.0% |
20.5% |
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. |
Personal & Household Products |
0.0% |
7.7% |
-27 |
-24 |
|
IEX |
08/11/06 |
23.5% |
9.4% |
IDEX Corporation |
Misc. Capital Goods |
-1.5% |
1.9% |
-44 |
-23 |
|
DIS |
02/09/07 |
1.6% |
1.6% |
The Walt Disney Company |
Broadcasting & Cable TV |
-1.2% |
1.6% |
-28 |
-18 |
|
BJS |
03/16/07 |
4.7% |
4.7% |
BJ Services Company |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-0.7% |
1.5% |
-25 |
-12 |
|
WSM |
09/01/06 |
23.4% |
16.2% |
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
0.5% |
7.5% |
-4 |
-10 |
|
VIP |
12/29/06 |
22.7% |
22.7% |
Vimpel-Communications (ADR) |
Communications Services |
-0.8% |
10.5% |
-18 |
-10 |
|
WSO |
07/28/06 |
16.3% |
10.5% |
Watsco, Incorporated |
Misc. Capital Goods |
-3.8% |
4.7% |
-17 |
-7 |
|
JBHT |
09/22/06 |
42.5% |
34.5% |
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. |
Trucking |
-0.5% |
6.4% |
-15 |
-6 |
|
COH |
07/28/06 |
82.7% |
19.6% |
Coach, Inc. |
Apparel/Accessories |
0.9% |
4.2% |
-19 |
-5 |
|
USTR |
08/11/06 |
31.1% |
29.6% |
United Stationers Inc. |
Office Supplies |
-0.3% |
5.7% |
-7 |
-3 |
|
UNT |
02/23/07 |
4.7% |
4.7% |
Unit Corporation |
Oil & Gas Operations |
0.0% |
7.2% |
-15 |
-3 |
Optionable stocks from Martin Zweig’s style of investing are listed in Table 3J.
Table 3J
Martin Zweig Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference Date |
% Chg |
Gain in 2007 |
Company |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
AEO |
12/22/06 |
-2.3% |
-4.2% |
American Eagle Outfitters |
Retail (Apparel) |
-12.9% |
-1.2% |
-62 |
-64 |
|
DHR |
07/21/06 |
13.7% |
-1.6% |
Danaher Corporation |
Scientific & Technical Instruments |
-6.0% |
0.7% |
-58 |
-61 |
|
GS |
06/16/06 |
44.4% |
4.3% |
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. |
Investment Services |
-5.9% |
3.1% |
-49 |
-45 |
|
LYO |
10/27/06 |
17.6% |
22.0% |
Lyondell Chemical Company |
Chemical Manufacturing |
-5.6% |
-0.9% |
-41 |
-43 |
|
GRMN |
02/16/07 |
-3.0% |
-3.0% |
Garmin Ltd. |
Communications Equipment |
-6.2% |
3.0% |
-36 |
-35 |
|
COL |
11/17/06 |
12.3% |
6.0% |
Rockwell Collins, Inc. |
Aerospace and Defense |
-3.7% |
-0.3% |
-29 |
-34 |
|
PCAR |
07/28/06 |
39.0% |
15.1% |
PACCAR Inc |
Auto & Truck Manufacturers |
-3.3% |
4.9% |
-36 |
-32 |
|
SEIC |
03/02/07 |
4.3% |
4.3% |
SEI Investments Company |
Investment Services |
2.8% |
4.5% |
-59 |
-30 |
|
TROW |
07/28/06 |
19.9% |
10.7% |
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. |
Investment Services |
-3.2% |
4.7% |
-51 |
-27 |
|
CHD |
03/02/07 |
8.7% |
8.7% |
Church & Dwight Co., Inc. |
Personal & Household Products |
0.0% |
7.7% |
-27 |
-24 |
|
ANF |
11/17/06 |
8.6% |
10.9% |
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. |
Retail (Apparel) |
-7.2% |
2.8% |
-21 |
-24 |
|
BEAV |
11/17/06 |
20.1% |
26.3% |
BE Aerospace, Inc. |
Aerospace and Defense |
-2.7% |
7.4% |
-23 |
-22 |
|
HC |
02/16/07 |
3.6% |
3.6% |
Hanover Compressor Company |
Rental & Leasing |
0.4% |
6.5% |
-39 |
-20 |
|
ESI |
11/04/05 |
40.6% |
25.3% |
ITT Educational Services, Inc. |
Schools |
-0.5% |
4.7% |
-29 |
-18 |
|
VAR |
01/19/07 |
-2.4% |
-2.4% |
Varian Medical Systems, Inc. |
Medical Equipment & Supplies |
-3.2% |
4.2% |
-31 |
-13 |
|
TSS |
10/20/06 |
40.4% |
23.4% |
Total System Services |
Computer Services |
-0.2% |
5.2% |
-30 |
-13 |
|
ACO |
12/08/06 |
4.7% |
7.5% |
AMCOL International Corporation |
Construction - Raw Materials |
-4.3% |
5.4% |
-14 |
-10 |
|
CAM |
11/17/06 |
20.1% |
19.4% |
Cameron International Corporation |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
-1.4% |
9.7% |
0 |
-10 |
|
RL |
08/11/06 |
63.5% |
19.2% |
Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation |
Retail (Apparel) |
0.0% |
8.8% |
0 |
-1 |
|
NE |
03/16/07 |
9.7% |
9.7% |
Noble Corporation |
Oil Well Services & Equipment |
0.4% |
9.9% |
-21 |
-1 |
|
PCP |
08/11/06 |
84.3% |
36.6% |
Precision Castparts Corp. |
Aerospace and Defense |
1.2% |
10.6% |
-7 |
0 |
|
EGN |
10/27/06 |
26.1% |
13.8% |
Energen Corporation |
Natural Gas Utilities |
2.3% |
11.9% |
-11 |
0 |
|
MDU |
01/27/06 |
26.1% |
13.9% |
MDU Resources Group, Inc. |
Natural Gas Utilities |
0.4% |
12.2% |
-7 |
0 |
Micro Cap Value Stocks are listed in Table 3K. This new screen is in response to inquires about penny stocks. Some are penny stocks but stock prices are at least $4.00. The filter is based more on capitalizations ranging from $17 million to $125 million. Because of the volatility of these stocks and their low trading volume, this watchlist will not appear on the website. Over the counter and bulletin board stocks were eliminated by the screen as were financials, limited partnerships and foreign stocks. Price-to-book ratios are less than 0.70 with positive earnings over the last 12 months. Price-to-sales ratios are less than 1.2.
Table 3K
Micro Cap Value Watch List
|
Stock |
Reference Date |
% Chg |
Gain in 2007 |
Company |
Industry |
% from Max |
Monthly % Gain |
%R1 |
%R2 |
|
MERX |
03/30/07 |
-5.2% |
-5.2% |
Merix Corporation |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
-7.3% |
-11.6% |
-81 |
-100 |
|
PLUS |
03/16/07 |
-2.1% |
-2.1% |
ePlus Inc. |
Software & Programming |
-4.5% |
-2.3% |
-84 |
-100 |
|
PFIN |
04/06/07 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
P & F Industries, Inc. |
Appliances & Tools |
0.0% |
-12.8% |
-94 |
-100 |
|
ALLI |
03/16/07 |
0.0% |
0.0% |
Allion Healthcare, Inc. |
Personal & Household Products |
-3.8% |
-19.5% |
-87 |
-91 |
|
HAST |
03/30/07 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
Hastings Entertainment, Inc. |
Retail (Specialty Non-Apparel) |
-1.0% |
-7.0% |
-88 |
-77 |
|
TOPT |
03/16/07 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
TOP Tankers Inc. |
Water Transportation |
-1.3% |
-4.7% |
-74 |
-76 |
|
SGMA |
03/16/07 |
13.5% |
13.5% |
SigmaTron International |
Electronic Instruments & Controls |
-2.6% |
-8.7% |
-75 |
-59 |
|
RSC |
03/16/07 |
7.7% |
7.7% |
Rex Stores Corporation |
Retail (Technology) |
-2.0% |
3.6% |
-48 |
-43 |
|
SCX |
03/16/07 |
2.4% |
2.4% |
The L.S. Starrett Company |
Misc. Capital Goods |
-2.6% |
4.0% |
-36 |
-40 |
|
WCAA |
03/23/07 |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
WCA Waste Corporation |
Waste Management Services |
-4.9% |
4.3% |
-27 |
-30 |
|
AWX |
03/16/07 |
6.5% |
6.5% |
Avalon Holdings Corporation |
Trucking |
-1.2% |
8.1% |
-4 |
-12 |
|
PMRY |
03/23/07 |
12.9% |
12.9% |
Pomeroy IT Solutions, Inc. |
Computer Hardware |
0.4% |
21.7% |
-3 |
-3 |
|
ISH |
03/30/07 |
8.6% |
8.6% |
International Shipholding Corporation |
Water Transportation |
0.0% |
7.8% |
-9 |
-1 |
|
MAM |
03/30/07 |
6.8% |
6.8% |
Maine & Maritimes Corporation |
Electric Utilities |
4.9% |
12.0% |
-3 |
0 |
Generally, a portfolio containing 10 to 20 of these stocks is allowed to vary more widely than our typical 10 to 15% decline rule for an individual stock. They are reviewed quarterly and sold after two years if they are not passing the screen at that time. However, the same rules listed at the beginning of Section 3 will be applied to this Micro Cap Value watchlist.
____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
4.0 Results & Conclusions
This section highlights trading performance. Only a summary is provided here to save space. Detailed lists of closed trades can be found on the portfolio page of the website.
|
Major Indices Year to Date |
Relative to |
||||
|
|
12/31/06 |
4/7/07 |
% Chg |
52 Wk High |
52 Wk Low |
|
DOW |
12463.2 |
12,560.20 |
0.78% |
-2.22% |
17.91% |
|
NASDAQ |
2415.29 |
2,471.34 |
2.32% |
-2.37% |
22.78% |
|
S&P500 |
1418.3 |
1,443.76 |
1.80% |
-1.22% |
18.41% |
|
Russell 2K |
787.66 |
813.35 |
3.26% |
-2.01% |
21.65% |
|
NYSE |
9139.02 |
9426.57 |
3.15% |
-0.39% |
22.29% |
|
Average |
|
|
2.26% |
-1.64% |
20.61% |
4.1 Options Trading in 2007
Average 2007 Profit per Trade 0.1%
Average Hold Time 6.2 days
4.2 Stock Trading in 2007
|
Stock Trading in 2007 ($10422.72 Initial Capital) |
||
|
Closed trades in 2007 = |
6 |
|
|
Average Trade Size = |
$1,000.00 |
|
|
Total Closed Position Share costs = |
$6,000.00 |
|
|
Gross Profit on Closed Positions = |
-$2.09 |
0.0% |
|
Number of Open Positions = |
2 |
|
|
Gross Profit on Open Positions in 2007 = |
$146.81 |
7.3% |
|
Broker Commission ($9.99/trade) = |
-$79.92 |
|
|
Subscription Cost to date = |
-$40.00 |
|
|
Net 2007 Profit After Expenses = |
$24.80 |
0.2% |
|
Cash = |
$7,545.65 |
|
|
Current Capital = |
$10,457.53 |
|
Appendix - Investment Conference Schedule
Below are links to conference registration sites.
- 04-24-07 through 04-25-07, Crown Plaza Hotel, San Francisco, CA, eM7 West is an outstanding INTERNET marketing event. This conference will provide you with actionable ideas, strategies and tactics you can put to work immediately upon returning to your office. The conference provides attendees an excellent environment for learning, networking and interaction. For over 7 years eMA conferences have provided the ultimate experience for your event investment. Consistently rated among the highest in value, content, and networking opportunities, this is one conference you won't want to miss.
- 05-06-07 through 05-08-07, Monterey Plaza Hotel - Monterey, CA, In it's 9th year, the AeA Micro Cap Financial Conference is designed exclusively for AeA member technology companies with up to $200 million in market cap or revenues. Each company will give one 6-minute General Session presentation. General Sessions will take place in two ballrooms concurrently, up to 25 companies will present in the Cypress Ballroom and up to 25 companies will present in the Monterey Ballroom. The ballrooms will be divided by industry segment. Following the General Sessions, each of that days presenting companies will move to their own private meeting room where they will hold six 30-minute Breakout Meetings. Each company presenting during Monday's General Session will host 6 private breakout meetings on Monday afternoon. Each company presenting during Tuesday's General Session will host 6 private breakout meetings on Tuesday afternoon.
- 06-25-07 through 06-27-07, The Tower, London, Commodity Investment Summit 2007, The Second Pan-European Conference on Commodity Investment. Commodity Investment Summit is Europe’s leading commodity investment and trading conference bringing together pension funds, private banks, family offices, investment consultants, asset managers, investment banks, commodity exchanges, hedge funds, traders and physical producers. Unlike our competitors we make sure we address all your key commodity investment and trading issues making sure this is the only event to attend if you want to return to your business better equipped to deal with the key aspects of commodity investing and trading.
Conference Search
Financial reporting and corporate news - "Corporate News Announcements"