WiserTrader Industries Monthly

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April 2008                          Prescott, Arizona                     Contact Editor

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Contents

 

 

 

Published the 3rd Tuesday of the month     

  Subscription to Weekly Newsletter

 

 

 

 

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   Top-down stock selections are normally based on leading industries in leading sectors with a focus on stocks that show growth in market share, earnings and sales.    

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1.0 Top-Down Portfolio

 

     The portfolio activity is shown for 2008 in Table 1A, including broker fees. 

 

 

Table 1A

Top-Down Portfolio Performance

Top-Down Trading in 2008 ($7809.07 Initial Capital)

% Initial Capital

Closed trades in 2008 =

8

 

Average Trade Size =

$1,000.00

 

Total Closed Position Share costs =

$8,000.00

 

Gross Profit on Closed Positions =

-$694.94

-8.90%

Number of Open Positions =

6

 

Cost of Open Positions =

$6,000.00

 

Gross Profit on Open Positions in 2008 =

$133.67

1.71%

Total Gross Profit =

-$561.26

-7.19%

Broker Commission ($9.99/trade) =

-$159.84

 

Subscription Cost to date =

$0.00

 

Net 2008 Profit After Expenses =

-$721.10

-9.23%

Cash =

$1,097.14

 

Current Capital =

$7,087.97

4/15/08

 * includes stocks bought in 2007 and sold in 2008

 

 

 

     Current stocks are listed in Table 1B.  Stop loss settings are explained in Section 2. 

 

Alerts:  None.

 

 

Past Additions:

 

      iShares Lehman TIPS Bond (NYSE: TIP) is an inflation-protected US Treasury ETF.

 

     CurrencyShares Euro Trust (NYSE: FXE)  is a currency ETF for the Euro. 

 

     CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (NYSE: FXA) is a currency ETF for the Australian dollar. 

 

     Currency Shares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE: FXF) is a currency ETF for the Swiss Franc.

 

     Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE: FXY) is a currency ETF for the Japanese Yen.

 

     Neflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) provides online movie rental subscription services in the United States. 

    

 

 

Table 1B

Top-Down Portfolio

Top - Down Portfolio

 

 

 

As of Market close on

4/15/08

Stock

Begin Date

Begin Price

Last Date

Last Price

Gross P/L (%)

Status

Sell stop

Metrics

CNX

12/31/07

71.52

1/4/08

65.48

-8.4%

closed

66.22

Growth

BBY

12/31/07

52.51

1/4/08

47.48

-9.6%

closed

48.04

Growth

PBR

12/31/07

115.24

1/16/08

98.09

-14.9%

closed

106.93

Growth

SRP

12/31/07

16.98

1/22/08

14.90

-12.2%

closed

15.28

Defensive

CPD

1/16/08

17.00

1/28/08

15.27

-10.2%

closed

15.30

Defensive

ACH

2/19/08

45.26

3/6/08

45.71

1.0%

closed

46.91

Growth

POT

2/19/08

152.50

3/10/08

143.03

-6.2%

closed

147.85

Growth

BHP

2/19/08

72.66

3/10/08

66.16

-8.9%

closed

68.18

Growth

TIP

12/31/07

105.26

4/15/08

108.78

3.3%

Buy

89.22

Defensive

FXE

12/31/07

146.40

4/15/08

157.96

7.9%

Buy

126.98

Defensive

FXA

02/19/08

92.34

4/15/08

92.62

0.3%

Buy

76.40

Defensive

FXF

03/18/08

99.85

4/15/08

99.42

-0.4%

Buy

80.90

Defensive

FXY

03/18/08

100.30

4/15/08

98.32

-2.0%

Buy

80.70

Defensive

NFLX

03/18/08

35.00

4/15/08

36.48

4.2%

Buy

30.54

Growth

Trailing Stop Settings are Bullish

 

 

 

Tspi (long) = -20%

Net capital for 2008 =

-9.2%

 

 

 

f (long) = 50%

 

 

    

     The market has been moving sideways for the past three months.  For the sectors charted in Figure 1A, only energy showed positive movement over the past week.  The energy sector has also been the leader over the past month, as shown in Table 1C. 

 

 

 

FIGURE 1A

 

 

Table 1C

Sector Rank

Sector *

1 wk

1 mo

Energy

2.0%

10.1%

Industrial Goods

-2.4%

7.4%

Basic Materials

-0.4%

6.3%

Transportation

-4.3%

5.8%

Technology

-2.7%

5.1%

Financial

-3.6%

5.1%

Consumer Noncyclical

-0.2%

4.9%

Healthcare

-2.7%

4.6%

Services

-3.5%

4.5%

Utilities

-0.3%

3.7%

Consumer Cyclical

-3.7%

2.8%

Conglomerates

-8.2%

-2.2%

 

 

     The energy sector in this classification system consists of oil and gas industries.  Other energy related stocks such as solar are found under specialized semiconductors.  Coal is found under mineral mining industries.  ETF’s are a good general way to invest in this energy sector.  ETF’s smooth out some of the volatility found in individual stocks.  Of course that does not mean they do not respond to the volatility of oil and gas prices.  They do indeed. 

 

     Within the oil & gas domain there are several choices.  Three are chosen here for their respectable average daily volume and are charted in Figure 1B.

 

     Oil Services HOLDRs (AMEX: OIH) diversifies across 18 companies in the oil service industry.  Principal holdings accounting for 80% are: Baker Hughes (7.95%), Diamond Offshore (7.47%), Halliburton (9.48%), Nabors (4.26%), National Oil Well (4.9%) Noble Corp (6.08%), Schlumberger (10.7%), Smith International ((5.67%), Transocean (18.18%) and Weatherford Intl (6.98%).

 

     United States Oil (AMEX: USO) seeks to reflect the performance, less expenses, of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light, sweet crude oil.  The fund will invest in futures contracts for WTI light, sweet crude oil, other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum based-fuels that are traded on exchanges.  It may also invest in other oil interests such as cash-settled options on oil futures contracts, forward contracts for oil, and OTC transactions that are based on the price of oil.

 

     iShares Dow Jones US Energy (NYSE: IYE) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas index which measures the performance of the oil and gas sector of the U.S. equity market.  The top 10 holdings are: Anadarko Petroleum (2.48%), Apache Corp (3.14%), Chevron (14.59%), Conoco Philips (4.4%), Devon Energy (3.57%), EOG Resources (2.62%), Exxon Mobil (23.09%), Occidental Petroleum (4.88%) Schlumberger (6.54%) and Transocean (2.49%).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FIGURE 1B

 

 

 

 

2.0 Portfolio Sell Stop Settings

 

     The trailing stop percentage TSP for WiserTrader portfolios has been adjusted for accuracy and flexibility in keeping with the original intent.  When stocks are bought in a bullish market, an initial trailing stop percentage TSPI = -20% is just about right.  However, the market can change.  A -20% trailing stop is too wide when the market turns bearish and a -10% trailing stop is too narrow when the market is bullish.  Also, there is the feeling that when profits grow beyond 40% (and we have seen several of these), a stock should have a progressively wider trailing stop.  So a 40% profit acts as a kind of transition point.  Each of these considerations is described graphically in Figure 2A for long positions.  The solid lines indicate the TSP for bullish, cautious and bearish market conditions.

 

 

FIGURE 2A

 

 

1.      When the stock price remains within 40% of the buy price, the initial trailing stop percentage TSPI varies according to market conditions.  For a long position,

 

·        Bullish, TSPI = -20%, as when the S&P 500 is above its SMA 30

·        Cautious, TSPI = -15%,  as when the S&P 500 is below its SMA 30

·        Bearish, TSPI = -10%, as when the S&P 500 SMA 30 slope is negative

 

     2. For a long position, when the maximum stock price is 40% or more greater than the buy price,

·        TSP is the wider of  TSPI or

 

                  

 

o       f is the fraction of gains placed at risk,

§         Bullish, f = 0.5,  as when the S&P 500 is above its SMA 30

§         Cautious, f = 0.375,  as when the S&P 500 is below its SMA 30

§         Bearish, f = 0.25,  as when the S&P 500 SMA 30 slope is negative

o       PBUY is the buy price and

o       PMAX is the maximum price reached.

 

 3. The sell stop price PSELL is,

 

                          

 

Current SettingsBullish

The S&P 500 is currently above its SMA 30. 

The S&P 500 SMA 30 slope is currently positive.

     

 

     Note: The signs for TSP and TSP1 are negative for long positions and positive for short positions.

 

 

S&P > SMA30

SMA30 slope >0

S&P < SMA30

SMA30 slope >0

S&P < SMA30

SMA30 slope <0

S&P > SMA30

SMA30 slope <0

 

Bullish

Bullish

Cautious

Cautious

Bearish

Bearish

Bearish

Cautious

 

Long

Short

Long

Short

Long

Short

Long

Short

TSPi

-20%

10%

-15%

15%

-10%

20%

-10%

15%

f

0.5

0.25

0.375

0.375

0.25

0.5

0.25

0.375

 

 

    These settings are designed at worst to, (1) take a 20% loss, (2) break even when there is a 20% maximum gain and (3) walk away with at least half of a 40% or greater maximum gain.  At the same time the stock price is given room to vary.  Deviations from these settings for individual stocks are possible when their industry undergoes unusual activity. 

 

     If you follow these portfolios, keep in mind that they are only benchmarks which can not be matched exactly because of the round numbers used.  Entry prices are taken from the previous close and exit prices are taken from the close on the day that trailing stops are triggered.  You can either sell as soon as a trailing stop is triggered or wait until after the close and try to get better prices over the next few days.  Once out of a position, a stock is set aside for a period of about two months. 

 

 

 

 

3.0 Leading Industries

 

     The leading industries for the past month are ranked in Table 3A.  The leftmost column is the rank based on the previous 4-week percentage change.  The second column from the left is ranked by the number of positions an industry is above or below its 4-week average rank.  The third column from the left is the average of the first two columns.  Clicking on the industry name takes you to an industry summary page.  The “C’s” will display the companies in the industry.  The last three columns on the right are the percentage gains for the previous trading day, the previous week and the previous four weeks.

 

 

 

 

 Table 3A

Leading Industries

Rank

Relative To Avg

Rank of Change

Leading Industries

Last

1 wk Ago Gain

1 mo Gain

1

31

48

Metal Fabrication

0.3%

0.0%

19.9%

2

128

4

Industrial Metals & Minerals

3.1%

1.0%

18.2%

3

64

28

Nonmetallic Mineral Mining

1.5%

4.2%

17.5%

4

136

2

Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration

0.7%

6.2%

16.5%

5

69

27

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

0.9%

2.6%

16.0%

6

75

24

Heavy Construction

1.9%

-2.4%

15.7%

7

105

10

Dairy Products

2.8%

1.4%

15.6%

8

31

49

Mortgage Investment

2.1%

-8.6%

15.3%

9

-2

105

Semiconductor - Specialized

1.8%

-0.1%

15.1%

10

104

11

Shipping

1.8%

-0.6%

15.0%

11

52

33

Industrial Equipment Wholesale

0.2%

-2.7%

14.8%

12

91

15

Agricultural Chemicals

0.2%

3.0%

14.7%

13

20

68

Residential Construction

1.5%

-6.8%

14.0%

14

86

16

Semiconductor- Memory Chips

-0.6%

-1.2%

13.9%

15

37

44

Foreign Money Center Banks

1.9%

-1.2%

13.8%

16

93

14

General Contractors

1.2%

-3.8%

13.8%

17

5

95

Jewelry Stores

1.1%

-1.9%

13.1%

18

-8

112

Catalog & Mail Order Houses

0.3%

-3.6%

13.0%

19

25

61

Building Materials Wholesale

0.7%

-6.0%

13.0%

20

35

45

Home Improvement Stores

0.3%

-0.2%

12.6%

21

85

17

Wholesale, Other

0.5%

-1.8%

12.3%

22

46

37

Basic Materials Wholesale

-0.4%

-2.2%

12.2%

23

8

90

Hospitals

1.1%

-2.0%

12.1%

24

107

9

Copper

1.1%

-1.1%

11.9%

25

9

86

Computer Based Systems

1.0%

-3.2%

11.6%

26

5

94

Discount, Variety Stores

1.7%

2.1%

11.6%

27

-19

132

Personal Computers

0.4%

-3.1%

10.9%

28

-15

117

Manufactured Housing

1.6%

-1.0%

10.9%

29

77

21

Processing Systems & Products

-0.9%

-5.1%

10.8%

30

7

91

Life Insurance

0.3%

-4.4%

10.7%

31

126

5

Investment Brokerage - National

1.9%

-6.5%

10.6%

32

84

18

Steel & Iron

2.1%

-1.0%

10.6%

33

45

38

Diversified Communication Services

0.2%

-3.9%

10.1%

34

-15

121

REIT - Retail

1.3%

-2.7%

9.8%

35

16

74

Electronics Stores

1.4%

-0.7%

9.8%

36

32

47

Drugs - Generic

-0.7%

-2.8%

9.7%

37

-22

140

REIT - Industrial

1.9%

0.3%

9.5%

38

46

36

Accident & Health Insurance

1.4%

0.4%

9.4%

39

115

7

Technical & System Software

2.7%

0.3%

9.3%

40

73

25

Insurance Brokers

1.6%

2.3%

9.3%

 

 

     Percentage gains for the top 20 leading industries are plotted in Figure 3A.

 

 

FIGURE 3A

 

 

4.0 Industries Rising in Rank

 

     Table 4A contains the industries that are moving up in position the fastest.  The 20 fastest rising in rank are plotted in Figure 4A.

 

 

 Table 4A

Industries Advancing in Rank the Fastest

Rank

Relative To Avg

Rank of Change

Fastest Advancing  Industries

Last

1 wk Ago Gain

1 mo Gain

47

141

1

Independent Oil & Gas

3.3%

2.3%

8.6%

4

136

2

Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration

0.7%

6.2%

16.5%

44

135

3

Toy & Hobby Stores

3.6%

0.7%

9.0%

2

128

4

Industrial Metals & Minerals

3.1%

1.0%

18.2%

31

126

5

Investment Brokerage - National

1.9%

-6.5%

10.6%

50

117

6

Farm Products

1.8%

2.8%

8.1%

39

115

7

Technical & System Software

2.7%

0.3%

9.3%

49

110

8

Technical Services

0.7%

-2.3%

8.3%

24

107

9

Copper

1.1%

-1.1%

11.9%

7

105

10

Dairy Products

2.8%

1.4%

15.6%

10

104

11

Shipping

1.8%

-0.6%

15.0%

43

104

12

Diagnostic Substances

0.2%

-3.7%

9.1%

76

104

13

Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

1.2%

1.3%

6.8%

16

93

14

General Contractors

1.2%

-3.8%

13.8%

12

91

15

Agricultural Chemicals

0.2%

3.0%

14.7%

14

86

16

Semiconductor- Memory Chips

-0.6%

-1.2%

13.9%

21

85

17

Wholesale, Other

0.5%

-1.8%

12.3%

32

84

18

Steel & Iron

2.1%

-1.0%

10.6%

57

83

19

Information Technology Services

1.9%

-0.2%

7.8%

79

80

20

Rubber & Plastics

1.0%

-3.3%

6.7%

29

77

21

Processing Systems & Products

-0.9%

-5.1%

10.8%

75

75

22

Recreational Goods, Other

1.8%

-1.1%

6.8%

53

75

23

Diversified Investments

1.2%

-1.6%

8.0%

6

75

24

Heavy Construction

1.9%

-2.4%

15.7%

40

73

25

Insurance Brokers

1.6%

2.3%

9.3%

86

69

26

Oil & Gas Pipelines

0.5%

-0.8%

6.3%

5

69

27

Oil & Gas Equipment & Services

0.9%

2.6%

16.0%

3

64

28

Nonmetallic Mineral Mining

1.5%

4.2%

17.5%

83

62

29

Major Integrated Oil & Gas

0.8%

0.6%

6.5%

48

62

30

Wireless Communications

1.1%

-1.8%

8.3%

140

62

31

Health Care Plans

2.5%

-0.7%

3.3%

132

61

32

Major Airlines

-6.7%

-8.1%

3.7%

11

52

33

Industrial Equipment Wholesale

0.2%

-2.7%

14.8%

61

52

34

Surety & Title Insurance

0.1%

-4.9%

7.5%

60

47

35

Internet Information Providers

-0.4%

-3.0%

7.5%

38

46

36

Accident & Health Insurance

1.4%

0.4%

9.4%

22

46

37

Basic Materials Wholesale

-0.4%

-2.2%

12.2%

33

45

38

Diversified Communication Services

0.2%

-3.9%

10.1%

109

44

39

Communication Equipment

-0.4%

-4.2%

4.8%

65

42

40

Broadcasting - TV

0.2%

-3.7%

7.3%

 

 

FIGURE 4A

 

 

 

5.0 Industries Falling in Rank

 

     A list of the industries declining in rank the fastest is given in Table 5A.  The 20 fastest declining in rank are plotted in Figure 5A.

 

 

 Table 5A

Industries Declining in Rank the Fastest

Rank

Relative To Avg

Rank of Change

Fastest Declining Industries

Last

1 wk Ago Gain

1 mo Gain

189

-46

176

Regional - Southeast Banks

4.9%

-3.6%

-0.9%

112

-46

177

Auto Dealerships

0.7%

-3.9%

4.4%

108

-48

178

Security & Protection Services

0.4%

-1.5%

4.8%

106

-48

179

Processed & Packaged Goods

0.5%

-0.6%

5.0%

175

-48

180

Specialty Eateries

1.2%

-3.6%

0.5%

68

-50

181

Long Distance Carriers

-0.3%

-5.6%

7.2%

142

-52

182

Pollution & Treatment Controls

1.1%

-1.8%

3.0%

194

-52

183

Regional - Midwest Banks

2.3%

-4.3%

-1.3%

173

-53

184

Computers Wholesale

0.3%

-4.4%

0.7%

118

-54

185

Restaurants

0.9%

-0.9%

4.0%

209

-55

186

Resorts & Casinos

-4.6%

-13.1%

-4.4%

174

-55

187

Appliances

0.0%

-6.9%

0.7%

206

-57

188

Toys & Games

-0.8%

-3.9%

-3.7%

170

-57

189

Scientific & Technical Instruments

-1.4%

-5.4%

0.9%

188

-59

190

Grocery Stores

1.0%

-3.6%

-0.8%

179

-59

191

Diversified Computer Systems

-0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

167

-60

192

Housewares & Accessories

-0.6%

-6.2%

1.1%

198

-60

193

Medical Equipment Wholesale

-0.9%

-5.8%

-2.2%

183

-61

194

Lodging

-1.7%

-7.1%

-0.1%

122

-61

195

Personal Products

0.0%

-0.6%

3.9%

208

-62

196

Business Equipment

0.1%

-4.5%

-4.2%

178

-62

197

Auto Parts Wholesale

1.1%

-2.2%

0.3%

195

-62

198

Publishing - Periodicals

-0.5%

-3.7%

-1.6%

88

-64

199

Music & Video Stores

1.4%

-4.1%

6.0%

181

-70

200

Food Wholesale

0.5%

-2.2%

0.1%

121

-71

201

Trucking

2.1%

-3.9%

3.9%

172

-77

202

Recreational Vehicles

1.1%

-7.7%

0.7%

150

-78

203

Trucks & Other Vehicles

1.2%

-5.1%

2.8%

155

-79

204

Application Software

0.9%

-1.5%

2.3%

211

-80

205

Networking & Communication Devices

-1.0%

-3.7%

-4.9%

187

-80

206

Security Software & Services

0.1%

-3.2%

-0.6%

157

-85

207

Semiconductor - Broad Line

0.7%

-1.3%

2.1%

210

-86

208

Regional - Pacific Banks

1.1%

-5.0%

-4.6%

169

-90

209

Regional - Southwest Banks

2.6%

-3.0%

1.0%

137

-92

210

REIT - Residential

1.0%

-3.6%

3.4%

148

-94

211

Telecom Services - Domestic

0.1%

-3.5%

2.8%

200

-104

212

Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks

1.8%

-5.2%

-2.4%

197

-107

213

Regional - Northeast Banks

-2.7%

-7.7%

-2.2%

186

-137

214

Real Estate Development

0.1%

-5.2%

-0.4%

199

-140

215

Conglomerates

0.9%

-8.2%

-2.2%

 

 

 

FIGURE 5A

 

 

 

6.0 Lagging Industries

 

     Lagging industries for the past month are listed in Table 6A.  A chart showing the rank performance of the 20 worst ranked is shown in Figure 6A.

 

 

 Table 6A

Lagging Industries

Rank

Relative To Avg

Rank of Change

Lagging Industries

Last

1 wk Ago Gain

1 mo Gain

176

-16

123

Aerospace/Defense - Major Diversified

-1.8%

-0.5%

0.5%

177

25

58

Healthcare Information Services

1.0%

0.2%

0.4%

178

-62

197

Auto Parts Wholesale

1.1%

-2.2%

0.3%

179

-59

191

Diversified Computer Systems

-0.2%

0.1%

0.3%

180

-33

161

Cigarettes

0.7%

-0.1%

0.1%

181

-70

200

Food Wholesale

0.5%

-2.2%

0.1%

182

7

92

Gaming Activities

-3.2%

-8.7%

0.0%

183

-61

194

Lodging

-1.7%

-7.1%

-0.1%

184

-29

154

Publishing - Newspapers

-0.5%

-3.5%

-0.3%

185

-11

113

Auto Manufacturers - Major

0.6%

-2.5%

-0.4%

186

-137

214

Real Estate Development

0.1%

-5.2%

-0.4%

187

-80

206

Security Software & Services

0.1%

-3.2%

-0.6%

188

-59

190

Grocery Stores

1.0%

-3.6%

-0.8%

189

-46

176

Regional - Southeast Banks

4.9%

-3.6%

-0.9%

190

-27

150

Entertainment - Diversified

-0.4%

-5.7%

-0.9%

191

-15

119

Electronic Equipment

1.2%

-2.4%

-1.2%

192

-25

148

Computer Peripherals

0.8%

-2.2%

-1.3%

193

8

89

Marketing Services

0.8%

-3.6%

-1.3%

194

-52

183

Regional - Midwest Banks

2.3%

-4.3%

-1.3%

195

-62

198

Publishing - Periodicals

-0.5%

-3.7%

-1.6%

196

-20

137

Sporting Goods Stores

0.1%

-1.2%

-1.9%

197

-107

213

Regional - Northeast Banks

-2.7%

-7.7%

-2.2%

198

-60

193

Medical Equipment Wholesale

-0.9%

-5.8%

-2.2%

199

-140

215

Conglomerates

0.9%

-8.2%

-2.2%

200

-104

212

Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks

1.8%

-5.2%

-2.4%

201

-16

125

Data Storage Devices

-1.7%

-4.5%

-2.7%

202

-18

128

Printed Circuit Boards

-0.9%

-4.2%

-2.8%

203

0

103

Home Health Care

0.4%

-5.1%

-2.9%

204

-22

139

Aluminum

2.1%

-6.1%

-3.3%

205

-42

169

Sporting Goods

-0.4%

-5.8%

-3.7%

206

-57

188

Toys & Games

-0.8%

-3.9%

-3.7%

207

-24

142

Medical Practitioners

-0.7%

-4.7%

-4.1%

208

-62

196

Business Equipment

0.1%

-4.5%

-4.2%

209

-55

186

Resorts & Casinos

-4.6%

-13.1%

-4.4%

210

-86

208

Regional - Pacific Banks

1.1%

-5.0%

-4.6%

211

-80

205

Networking & Communication Devices

-1.0%

-3.7%

-4.9%

212

-29

156

Foreign Regional Banks

-2.4%

-5.0%

-7.5%

213

-46

175

Broadcasting - Radio

-1.3%

-5.1%

-9.1%