WiserTrader Industries Monthly

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February 2008                          Prescott, Arizona                     Contact Editor

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Contents

 

 

 

Published the 3rd Tuesday of the month     

  Subscription to Weekly Newsletter

 

 

 

 

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   Top-down stock selections are based on leading industries in leading sectors with a focus on stocks that show growth in market share, earnings and sales.    

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1.0 Top-Down Portfolio

 

     Currently the portfolio shows a capital short fall of -7.6% for 2008, including broker fees, as summarized in Table 1A.

 

 

Table 1A

Top-Down Portfolio Performance

Top-Down Trading in 2008 ($7809.07 Initial Capital)

% Initial Capital

Closed trades in 2008 =

5

 

Average Trade Size =

$1,000.00

 

Total Closed Position Share costs =

$5,000.00

 

Gross Profit on Closed Positions =

-$553.32

-7.09%

Number of Open Positions =

2

 

Cost of Open Positions =

$2,000.00

 

Gross Profit on Open Positions in 2008 =

$23.30

0.30%

Total Gross Profit =

-$530.03

-6.79%

Broker Commission ($9.99/trade) =

-$59.94

 

Subscription Cost to date =

$0.00

 

Net 2008 Profit After Expenses =

-$589.97

-7.55%

Cash =

$5,454.79

 

Current Capital * =

$7,219.10

2/19/08

 * includes stocks bought in 2007 and sold in 2008

 

 

     Current stocks are listed in Table 1B.  TIP is an inflation-protected US Treasury ETF and FXE is a currency ETF for the Euro.  Stop loss settings are explained in Section 2. 

 

 

Table 1B

Top-Down Portfolio

Top - Down Portfolio

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stock

Begin Date

Begin Price

Last Date

Last Price

Gross P/L (%)

Status

Sell stop

Metrics

CNX

12/31/07

71.52

1/4/08

65.48

-8.4%

closed

66.22

Growth

BBY

12/31/07

52.51

1/4/08

47.48

-9.6%

closed

48.04

Growth

PBR

12/31/07

115.24

1/16/08

98.09

-14.9%

closed

106.93

Growth

SRP

12/31/07

16.98

1/22/08

14.90

-12.2%

closed

15.28

Defensive

CPD

1/16/08

17.00

1/28/08

15.27

-10.2%

closed

15.30

Defensive

TIP

12/31/07

105.26

2/19/08

106.90

1.6%

Buy

98.17

Defensive

FXE

12/31/07

146.40

2/19/08

147.53

0.8%

Buy

134.42

Defensive

As of market close on

2/19/08

 

Trailing Stop Settings are

Bearish

Net capital for 2008 =

-7.6%

 

 

 

f =

25.0%

 

 

 

    

     Sector and industry rankings are determined by the percent increase in industry composite index values over the previous 4 weeks.  Industry rank ranges from a high of 1 to a low of 215 based on a list of 215 industries in the Yahoo Finance industry classification system.  Sectors rankings based on the average monthly gain of their industries are listed in Table 1C.  The leading sector for the month was basic materials.

 

 

 

Table 1C

Sector Rank

S Rank

Sector *

Last

1 wk

2 wks

3 wks

4 wks

1 mo

1

Basic Materials

3.1%

4.6%

-1.9%

4.1%

5.2%

12.3%

2

Transportation

-0.2%

-0.7%

0.3%

4.1%

5.1%

9.0%

3

Consumer Cyclical

0.4%

1.1%

-1.7%

2.5%

5.3%

7.2%

4

Industrial Goods

0.7%

0.7%

-3.9%

4.1%

5.2%

6.0%

5

Energy

2.1%

4.1%

-1.2%

2.0%

0.8%

5.8%

6

Financial

-0.6%

-0.4%

-5.8%

2.4%

9.5%

5.1%

7

Services

0.0%

-0.5%

-2.7%

3.1%

4.8%

4.6%

8

Conglomerates

-0.1%

1.3%

-3.5%

2.8%

1.7%

2.2%

9

Consumer Noncyclical

0.4%

1.4%

-2.3%

1.8%

1.2%

2.0%

10

Technology

-0.8%

-0.1%

-3.4%

2.3%

0.6%

-0.7%

11

Utilities

0.2%

0.9%

-3.2%

4.1%

-2.4%

-0.8%

12

Healthcare

0.1%

0.6%

-2.2%

2.0%

-2.5%

-2.1%

 

 

     Within the basic materials sector aluminum is ranked at the top, being 3rd out of 215 industries, as listed in Table 1D.  Nonmetallic mineral mining is next, in the 5th position followed by industrial metals & minerals in the 6th position.

 

 

Table 1D

Basic Materials Industries

Rank

Industry

Today

1 wk

2 wks

3 wks

4 wks

1 mo

 

12

Agricultural Chemicals

3.3%

4.8%

0.5%

3.7%

7.3%

17.1%

C's

3

Aluminum

1.2%

7.9%

-1.8%

9.7%

5.2%

22.3%

C's

37

Chemicals - Major Diversified

1.0%

1.9%

-1.4%

2.6%

7.4%

10.7%

C's

15

Copper

5.1%

6.5%

-0.6%

9.4%

-0.5%

15.3%

C's

110

Gold

5.2%

2.2%

0.7%

-6.0%

6.8%

3.3%

C's

6

Industrial Metals & Minerals

4.4%

8.5%

-6.7%

10.7%

7.6%

20.6%

C's

5

Nonmetallic Mineral Mining

3.0%

5.4%

-0.8%

3.4%

11.9%

21.0%

C's

152

Silver

4.7%

1.6%

1.8%

-6.3%

3.2%

0.1%

C's

62

Specialty Chemicals

1.2%

2.3%

-1.5%

4.5%

2.8%

8.2%

C's

54

Steel & Iron

3.5%

6.6%

-9.4%

10.8%

1.9%

9.0%

C's

68

Synthetics

1.1%

3.5%

-1.6%

2.4%

3.3%

7.7%

C's

 

 

 

     Clicking on the C’s next to aluminum brings up a list of 7 companies that can be copied and pasted into the “Companies” spreadsheet, shown in Table 1E.  Each company meets average daily volume and trading exchange requirements and most have shown a respectable gain over the past month.

 

 

 

Table 1E

Aluminum Companies

As of 1-19-08