WiserTrader Industries Monthly

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January 2008                          Prescott, Arizona                     Contact Editor

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Contents

• Portfolio
• Sell Stop Settings
• Leading Sectors and Industries
• Industries Rising in Rank
• Industries Falling in Rank
• Lagging Industries

Published the 3^rd Tuesday of the month     

Subscription to Weekly Newsletter

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Top-down stock selections are based on leading industries in leading sectors with stocks that show growth in market share, earnings and sales.    

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1.0 Top-Down Portfolio

     Currently the portfolio shows a capital short fall of -6.2% for 2008, including broker fees, as summarized in Table 1A.

Table 1A

Top-Down Portfolio Performance

Top-Down Trading in 2008 ($7809.07 Initial Capital)		% Initial Capital
Closed trades in 2008 =	3
Average Trade Size =	$1,000.00
Total Closed Position Share costs =	$3,000.00
Gross Profit on Closed Positions =	$285.37	3.7% *
Number of Open Positions =	3
Cost of Open Positions =	$3,000.00
Gross Profit on Open Positions in 2008 =	-$59.18	-0.8%
Total Gross Profit =	$226.20	2.90%
Broker Commission ($9.99/trade) =	-$29.97
Subscription Cost to date =	$0.00
Net 2008 Profit After Expenses =	$196.23	2.5%
Cash =	$4,918.70
Current Capital =	$7,328.81

 * includes stocks bought in 2007 and sold in 2008

     Stocks that survived the recent down trend are listed in Table 1B.  Recent additions CNX and BBY were stopped out the first week of the new year.  PBR was stopped out just recently.  SRP was moved to a hold.  Refer to Section 2 for current trailing stop settings.

Table 1B

Top-Down Portfolio

Top - Down Portfolio
Stock	Open Date	Open Price	Last Date	Last Price	Gross P/L (%)	Status	Sell stop	Metrics
CNX	12/18/07	67.25	1/4/08	65.48	-2.6%	closed	66.22	Growth
BBY	12/18/07	51.62	1/4/08	47.61	-7.8%	closed	48.04	Growth
PBR	9/18/07	70.60	1/16/08	98.09	38.9%	closed	98.53	Growth
SRP	11/20/07	17.52	1/16/08	16.28	-7.1%	Hold	15.98	Defensive
TIP	11/20/07	105.45	1/16/08	107.62	2.1%	Buy	97.43	Defensive
FXE	11/20/07	148.14	1/16/08	146.81	-0.9%	Buy	134.13	Defensive
As of market close on			1/16/08			Sell Stop Settings are		Bearish
Net capital for 2008 =			-6.2%				f =	25.0%

     SRP is a US stock, TIP is an inflation-protected US Treasury ETF and FXE is a currency ETF for the Euro. 

     Sector and industry rankings are determined by the percent increase in industry composite index values over the previous 4 weeks.  Industry rank ranges from a high of 1 to a low of 215 based on a list of 215 industries in the Yahoo Finance industry classification system.  Sectors rankings based on the average monthly gain of their industries are listed in Table 1C.

Table 1C

Sector Rank

Rank	Sector	Average 4-Week % Change	Average Industry Rank
1	Healthcare	1.3%	28
2	Basic Materials	-1.5%	84
3	Consumer Noncyclical	-2.4%	56
4	Utilities	-3.3%	61
5	Energy	-3.8%	69
6	Conglomerates	-5.8%	85
7	Financial	-6.1%	96
8	Transportation	-7.5%	111
9	Services	-8.5%	128
10	Consumer Cyclical	-9.2%	134
11	Technology	-9.3%	133
12	Industrial Goods	-9.7%	138

     With the market in a continuing decline, any new selection for this month is clearly going to be defensive.  From Table 1C, the leading sector over the past month has been healthcare.  The leading industry in the healthcare sector over the past month was generic drugs whose stocks are listed in Table 1D, except for a couple of over the counter stocks. 

     HLCS is in an exponential run.  HITK, MYL, PRX and WPI are losing market share.  BRL, the only company that is significantly gaining market share is doing so at the expense of sales and earnings. 

     Caraco Pharmaceutical Labs L (AMEX: CPD) with a market cap of $500 million is ranked number 4 for the month.  While it has a market share of only 2%, its sales and earnings growth are impressive.  CPD is the defensive stock selection for January.

Table 1D

Generic Drugs

			% Chg	% Chg	% Chg	Rank	Market Share	Market Share	Sales Growth	EPS Growth
Symbol	Avg. Vol.	Price	Last	1 wk	1 mo	1 mo		Gain	1Y	1Y
HLCS	53,895	$17.44	0.29%	40.2%	74.4%	1	0.0%	0.0%	n/a	-88.7%
HITK	52,561	$11.05	16.02%	11.6%	17.4%	2	0.8%	-0.4%	-24.5%	-117.7%
MYL	8,972,950	$15.35	2.61%	3.4%	14.0%	3	24.5%	-2.5%	28.2%	26.3%
CPD	59,883	$17.00	0.77%	5.3%	13.5%	4	2.1%	0.0%	41.3%	361.5%
BRL	732,378	$55.83	0.52%	4.0%	7.0%	5	30.9%	6.5%	-30.3%	-199.4%
PRX	647,008	$21.66	0.79%	-0.7%	4.0%	6	10.9%	-1.9%	67.8%	144.4%
WPI	832,989	$27.78	0.87%	2.2%	-0.1%	7	30.6%	-1.8%	20.2%	-431.1%
CPRX	23,119	$3.11	0.65%	-1.3%	-1.6%	8	n/a	n/a	n/a	-20.7%
PRW	99,570	$0.45	-8.16%	-11.8%	-31.8%	9	n/a	n/a	n/a	56.0%
ILE	296,992	$0.69	-14.81%	-21.6%	-73.8%	10	0.0%	0.0%	-30.7%	0.0%

2.0 Portfolio Sell Stop Settings

The trailing stop percentage T_SP for portfolios has been adjusted for accuracy and flexibility in keeping with the original intent.  When stocks are bought in a bullish market, an initial trailing stop percentage T_SPI = -20% is just about right.  However, the market can change.  A -20% trailing stop is too wide when the market turns bearish and a -10% trailing stop is too narrow when the market is bullish.  Also, there is the feeling that when profits grow beyond 40% (and we have seen several of these), a stock should have a progressively wider trailing stop.  So a 40% profit acts as a kind of transition point.  Each of these considerations is described graphically in Figure 2A where the solid lines indicate the T_SP for bullish, cautious and bearish market conditions.

FIGURE 2A

1. When the maximum stock price remains within 40% of the buy price, the initial trailing stop percentage T_SPI ranges from -10% to -20%, depending on market conditions.

· Bullish, T_SPI = -20%, as when the S&P 500 is above its SMA 30

· Cautious, T_SPI = -15%,  as when the S&P 500 is below its SMA 30

· Bearish, T_SPI = -10%, as when the S&P 500 SMA 30 slope is negative

     2. When the maximum stock price rises to 40% or more greater than the buy price,

· T_SP is the wider of  T_SPI or

o f is the fraction of gains placed at risk,

§ Bullish, f = 0.5,  as when the S&P 500 is above its SMA 30

§ Cautious, f = 0.375,  as when the S&P 500 is below its SMA 30

§ Bearish, f = 0.25,  as when the S&P 500 SMA 30 slope is negative

o P_BUY is the buy price and

o P_MAX is the maximum price reached.

 3. The sell stop price P_SELL is,

Current Status:  Bearish,  f = 0.25

The S&P 500 is currently below its SMA 30. 

The S&P 500 SMA 30 slope is currently negative.

    These settings are designed at worst to, (1) take a 20% loss, (2) break even when there is a 20% maximum gain and (3) walk away with at least half of a 40% or greater maximum gain.  At the same time the stock price is given room to vary.  Deviations from these settings for individual stocks are possible when their industry undergoes unusual activity. 

     If you follow these portfolios, keep in mind that they are only benchmarks which can not be matched exactly because of the round numbers used.  Entry prices are taken from the previous close and exit prices are taken from the close on the day that trailing stops are triggered.  You can either sell as soon as a trailing stop is triggered or wait until after the close and try to get better prices over the next few days.  Once out of a position, a stock is set aside for a period of about two months. 

3.0 Leading Industries

     The leading industries for the past month are ranked in Table 3A.  The leftmost column is the rank based on the previous 4-week percentage change.  The second column from the left is ranked by the number of positions an industry is above or below its 4-week average rank.  The third column from the left is the average of the first two columns.  Clicking on the industry name takes you to an industry summary page.  The “C’s” will display the companies in the industry.  The last three columns on the right are the percentage gains for the previous trading day, the previous week and the previous four weeks.

 Table 3A

Leading Industries

Rank [R]	Rank of Change   [C]	(R+C)/2	Industries	Companies	Last Gain	1 wk Ago Gain	1 mo Gain
1	27	14	Gold	C's	-5.1%	-4.6%	16.2%
2	9	6	Silver	C's	-2.2%	-3.5%	11.8%
3	103	53	Agricultural Chemicals	C's	-6.6%	-3.5%	8.6%
4	35	20	Drugs - Generic	C's	1.2%	3.9%	7.3%
5	73	39	Medical Equipment Wholesale	C's	1.9%	2.3%	7.2%
6	108	57	Nonmetallic Mineral Mining	C's	-5.7%	-2.3%	6.8%
7	61	34	Medical Instruments & Supplies	C's	1.9%	2.2%	5.9%
8	14	11	Drugs Wholesale	C's	2.3%	1.7%	4.9%
9	111	60	Farm Products	C's	-5.2%	-5.7%	4.2%
10	60	35	Research Services	C's	0.3%	-0.4%	3.9%
11	5	8	Specialized Health Services	C's	0.5%	0.0%	3.8%
12	21	17	Medical Laboratories & Research	C's	0.9%	-0.3%	3.6%
13	105	59	Dairy Products	C's	-2.9%	-5.0%	3.6%
14	8	11	Biotechnology	C's	0.5%	0.1%	3.2%
15	1	8	Drug Manufacturers - Other	C's	0.4%	-1.5%	3.2%
16	15	16	Closed-End Fund - Debt	C's	0.1%	0.7%	2.9%
17	12	15	Diagnostic Substances	C's	-0.3%	0.9%	2.9%
18	42	30	Drug Delivery	C's	0.3%	-1.9%	2.7%
19	84	52	Mortgage Investment	C's	2.3%	12.6%	2.3%
20	72	46	Oil & Gas Pipelines	C's	-0.4%	-2.4%	1.8%
21	89	55	Health Care Plans	C's	1.0%	-1.6%	1.6%
22	28	25	Insurance Brokers	C's	1.8%	-0.8%	1.1%
23	13	18	REIT - Healthcare Facilities	C's	1.1%	2.0%	0.7%
24	18	21	Drug Manufacturers - Major	C's	-0.4%	-3.0%	0.6%
25	118	72	Real Estate Development	C's	0.5%	-2.5%	0.4%
26	127	77	Beverages - Brewers	C's	-0.7%	-4.0%	0.3%
27	49	38	Cigarettes	C's	-0.3%	-3.2%	0.1%
28	23	26	Accident & Health Insurance	C's	0.5%	-0.9%	0.0%
29	88	59	Home Health Care	C's	1.8%	1.4%	0.0%
30	74	52	Telecom Services - Foreign	C's	-1.4%	-5.1%	-0.3%
31	19	25	Computer Based Systems	C's	0.5%	-2.5%	-0.4%
32	104	68	Drug Related Products	C's	1.4%	1.9%	-0.5%
33	87	60	Medical Appliances & Equipment	C's	0.3%	-2.5%	-0.5%
34	20	27	Regional - Northeast Banks	C's	1.9%	-1.1%	-0.7%
35	99	67	Electric Utilities	C's	-1.3%	-3.3%	-0.8%
36	3	20	Home Improvement Stores	C's	3.9%	5.7%	-1.1%
37	78	58	Closed-End Fund - Equity	C's	-0.8%	-1.0%	-1.1%
38	39	39	Property & Casualty Insurance	C's	-0.3%	-0.3%	-1.4%
39	48	44	Beverages - Soft Drinks	C's	-1.1%	-5.0%	-1.4%
40	10	25	Confectioners	C's	-0.3%	-3.0%	-1.5%

     The top 20 leading industries are plotted in Figure 1.

FIGURE 1

4.0 Industries Rising in Rank

     Table 4A contains the industries that are moving up in position the fastest.  The 20 fastest rising in rank are plotted in Figure 2.

 Table 4A

Industries Advancing in Rank the Fastest

Rank [R]	Rank of Change   [C]	(R+C)/2	Industries	Companies	Last Gain	1 wk Ago Gain	1 mo Gain
15	1	8	Drug Manufacturers - Other	C's	0.4%	-1.5%	3.2%
46	2	24	Major Airlines	C's	-1.2%	7.8%	-2.0%
36	3	20	Home Improvement Stores	C's	3.9%	5.7%	-1.1%
81	4	43	Specialty Eateries	C's	1.9%	-1.3%	-5.7%
11	5	8	Specialized Health Services	C's	0.5%	0.0%	3.8%
47	6	27	Foreign Money Center Banks	C's	-2.7%	-7.5%	-2.1%
66	7	37	REIT - Residential	C's	2.2%	0.8%	-4.3%
14	8	11	Biotechnology	C's	0.5%	0.1%	3.2%
2	9	6	Silver	C's	-2.2%	-3.5%	11.8%
40	10	25	Confectioners	C's	-0.3%	-3.0%	-1.5%
89	11	50	Manufactured Housing	C's	0.6%	-2.2%	-5.9%
17	12	15	Diagnostic Substances	C's	-0.3%	0.9%	2.9%
23	13	18	REIT - Healthcare Facilities	C's	1.1%	2.0%	0.7%
8	14	11	Drugs Wholesale	C's	2.3%	1.7%	4.9%
16	15	16	Closed-End Fund - Debt	C's	0.1%	0.7%	2.9%
101	16	59	Savings & Loans	C's	0.7%	2.1%	-6.5%
59	17	38	Education & Training Services	C's	-0.8%	-3.0%	-3.9%
24	18	21	Drug Manufacturers - Major	C's	-0.4%	-3.0%	0.6%
31	19	25	Computer Based Systems	C's	0.5%	-2.5%	-0.4%
34	20	27	Regional - Northeast Banks	C's	1.9%	-1.1%	-0.7%
12	21	17	Medical Laboratories & Research	C's	0.9%	-0.3%	3.6%
102	23	63	Paper & Paper Products	C's	-0.1%	-2.0%	-6.5%
28	24	26	Accident & Health Insurance	C's	0.5%	-0.9%	0.0%
100	22	61	REIT - Industrial	C's	1.6%	1.8%	-6.5%
72	25	49	REIT - Office	C's	1.4%	3.0%	-5.0%
44	26	35	Farm & Construction Machinery	C's	-2.9%	-1.6%	-1.8%
1	27	14	Gold	C's	-5.1%	-4.6%	16.2%
22	28	25	Insurance Brokers	C's	1.8%	-0.8%	1.1%
78	29	54	Entertainment - Diversified	C's	1.2%	0.2%	-5.3%
91	30	61	Closed-End Fund - Foreign	C's	-2.4%	-4.8%	-6.1%
57	31	44	Water Utilities	C's	-1.2%	-4.4%	-3.6%
152	32	92	Office Supplies	C's	2.8%	-0.1%	-9.9%
79	33	56	Investment Brokerage - National	C's	1.7%	1.6%	-5.5%
65	34	50	Life Insurance	C's	-1.4%	-3.2%	-4.2%
4	35	20	Drugs - Generic	C's	1.2%	3.9%	7.3%
62	37	50	Food - Major Diversified	C's	0.5%	-4.1%	-4.1%
43	36	40	Gas Utilities	C's	-1.5%	-3.6%	-1.7%
145	39	92	REIT - Hotel/Motel	C's	1.4%	-0.7%	-9.5%
38	38	38	Property & Casualty Insurance	C's	-0.3%	-0.3%	-1.4%
132	40	86	Housewares & Accessories	C's	2.6%	0.6%	-8.6%

FIGURE 2

5.0 Industries Falling in Rank

     A list of the industries declining in rank the fastest is given in Table 5A.  The 20 fastest declining in rank are plotted in Figure 3.

 Table 5A

Industries Declining in Rank the Fastest

Rank [R]	Rank of Change   [C]	(R+C)/2	Industries	Companies	Last Gain	1 wk Ago Gain	1 mo Gain
92	176	134	Industrial Metals & Minerals	C's	-4.3%	-6.8%	-6.2%
143	177	160	Copper	C's	-6.5%	-10.9%	-9.4%
179	178	179	Information Technology Services	C's	0.2%	-2.6%	-12.0%
184	179	182	Electronics Wholesale	C's	0.3%	-3.8%	-12.8%
206	180	193	Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks	C's	2.5%	1.5%	-16.4%
197	181	189	Restaurants	C's	-1.6%	-7.7%	-13.8%
199	182	191	Shipping	C's	-2.7%	-8.1%	-15.0%
141	183	162	Broadcasting - TV	C's	-2.4%	-5.1%	-9.0%
185	184	185	Photographic Equipment & Supplies	C's	-0.7%	-6.9%	-12.8%
173	185	179	General Entertainment	C's	2.0%	-1.6%	-11.4%
77	186	132	Music & Video Stores	C's	4.4%	-6.0%	-5.2%
196	187	192	Processing Systems & Products	C's	2.0%	-2.8%	-13.8%
198	188	193	Basic Materials Wholesale	C's	-2.0%	-7.2%	-14.1%
168	189	179	Industrial Electrical Equipment	C's	-3.5%	-7.6%	-11.2%
124	190	157	Publishing - Periodicals	C's	-1.4%	-5.8%	-8.3%
133	191	162	Scientific & Technical Instruments	C's	-1.4%	-4.8%	-8.7%
146	192	169	Metal Fabrication	C's	-2.6%	-1.8%	-9.5%
136	193	165	Specialty Chemicals	C's	-1.5%	-3.8%	-8.8%
210	194	202	Semiconductor - Broad Line	C's	-7.2%	-8.7%	-18.8%
107	195	151	Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing	C's	-4.7%	-10.7%	-7.1%
156	196	176	Diversified Investments	C's	-2.9%	-3.4%	-10.1%
114	197	156	Steel & Iron	C's	-5.2%	-7.5%	-7.7%
193	198	196	Residential Construction	C's	3.0%	2.4%	-13.6%
191	199	195	Auto Parts Stores	C's	2.1%	-3.7%	-13.5%
177	200	189	Internet Service Providers	C's	-7.0%	-7.5%	-11.9%
135	201	168	Multimedia & Graphics Software	C's	-1.6%	-5.4%	-8.8%
181	202	192	Property Management	C's	0.4%	-3.6%	-12.4%
194	203	199	Electronics Stores	C's	1.6%	-4.1%	-13.6%
202	204	203	Auto Dealerships	C's	0.3%	-5.7%	-15.5%
183	205	194	Diversified Electronics	C's	-1.3%	-6.4%	-12.5%
166	206	186	Business Services	C's	-0.8%	-5.6%	-11.0%
178	207	193	Asset Management	C's	-1.6%	-3.0%	-12.0%
155	208	182	Technical Services	C's	-3.8%	-5.9%	-10.1%
163	209	186	Heavy Construction	C's	-4.1%	-7.7%	-10.8%
174	210	192	Catalog & Mail Order Houses	C's	0.3%	-5.8%	-11.5%
192	211	202	Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits	C's	-2.8%	-6.9%	-13.5%
188	212	200	Personal Computers	C's	-4.5%	-8.7%	-13.2%
190	213	202	Recreational Vehicles	C's	1.7%	-4.0%	-13.4%
203	214	209	General Contractors	C's	-5.1%	-10.0%	-15.5%
209	215	212	Semiconductor - Specialized	C's	-4.3%	-11.4%	-17.3%

FIGURE 3

6.0 Lagging Industries

     Lagging industries for the past month are listed in Table 6A.  A chart showing the rank performance of the 20 worst ranked is shown in Figure 4.

 Table 6A

Lagging Industries

Rank [R]	Rank of Change   [C]	(R+C)/2	Industries	Companies	Last Gain	1 wk Ago Gain	1 mo Gain
176	136	156	Textile - Apparel Clothing	C's	1.9%	-4.0%	-11.8%
177	200	189	Internet Service Providers	C's	-7.0%	-7.5%	-11.9%
178	207	193	Asset Management	C's	-1.6%	-3.0%	-12.0%
179	178	179	Information Technology Services	C's	0.2%	-2.6%	-12.0%
180	107	144	Sporting Goods	C's	1.1%	-5.0%	-12.4%
181	202	192	Property Management	C's	0.4%	-3.6%	-12.4%
182	91	137	Department Stores	C's	3.8%	0.0%	-12.5%
183	205	194	Diversified Electronics	C's	-1.3%	-6.4%	-12.5%
184	179	182	Electronics Wholesale	C's	0.3%	-3.8%	-12.8%
185	184	185	Photographic Equipment & Supplies	C's	-0.7%	-6.9%	-12.8%
186	95	141	Small Tools & Accessories	C's	-1.1%	-6.3%	-13.0%
187	160	174	Printed Circuit Boards	C's	-2.6%	-4.7%	-13.1%
188	212	200	Personal Computers	C's	-4.5%	-8.7%	-13.2%
189	161	175	Credit Services	C's	2.6%	-4.6%	-13.3%
190	213	202	Recreational Vehicles	C's	1.7%	-4.0%	-13.4%
191	199	195	Auto Parts Stores	C's	2.1%	-3.7%	-13.5%
192	211	202	Semiconductor - Integrated Circuits	C's	-2.8%	-6.9%	-13.5%
193	198	196	Residential Construction	C's	3.0%	2.4%	-13.6%
194	203	199	Electronics Stores	C's	1.6%	-4.1%	-13.6%
195	150	173	Textile - Apparel Footwear & Accessories	C's	2.2%	-5.5%	-13.7%
196	187	192	Processing Systems & Products	C's	2.0%	-2.8%	-13.8%
197	181	189	Restaurants	C's	-1.6%	-7.7%	-13.8%
198	188	193	Basic Materials Wholesale	C's	-2.0%	-7.2%	-14.1%
199	182	191	Shipping	C's	-2.7%	-8.1%	-15.0%
200	168	184	Apparel Stores	C's	1.6%	-5.3%	-15.2%
201	151	176	Gaming Activities	C's	-0.6%	-4.3%	-15.3%
202	204	203	Auto Dealerships	C's	0.3%	-5.7%	-15.5%
203	214	209	General Contractors	C's	-5.1%	-10.0%	-15.5%
204	120	162	Toy & Hobby Stores	C's	0.5%	-3.0%	-15.8%
205	147	176	Consumer Services	C's	-2.5%	-7.0%	-16.3%
206	180	193	Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks	C's	2.5%	1.5%	-16.4%
207	119	163	Jewelry Stores	C's	4.9%	-5.7%	-17.1%
208	174	191	Diversified Machinery	C's	-1.6%	-4.4%	-17.2%
209	215	212	Semiconductor - Specialized	C's	-4.3%	-11.4%	-17.3%
210	194	202	Semiconductor - Broad Line	C's	-7.2%	-8.7%	-18.8%
211	132	172	Resorts & Casinos	C's	2.3%	-6.1%	-19.0%
212	110	161	Machine Tools & Accessories	C's	-0.1%	-2.3%	-19.9%
213	175	194	Recreational Goods, Other	C's	0.3%	-10.9%	-21.3%
214	144	179	Surety & Title Insurance	C's	-6.4%	-1.2%	-23.3%
215	116	166	Semiconductor- Memory Chips	C's	-2.0%	-5.5%	-23.8%

FIGURE 4

     It is important to remember that the usefulness of industry ranking depends on how each industry is actually performing.  When the market performs poorly, the leading industry could very well be the one that declines the least, as has been the case recently.  An industry could be doing nothing price wise but could end up near the top or bottom of the ranking list because other industries might be doing extremely poorly or well.  There is not enough information in an industry’s ranking alone to infer how the industry index has actually changed over time.  One must view the actual percentage change of an index for the industry of interest.  For the past month, most industries have declined.

     Industry rankings based on rank position changes indicate future industry leadership.  This indicator also confirms how well a leading industry is maintaining its position. 

    The spreadsheet from which the charts and tables were obtained requires a weekly newsletter subscription and password.  It is named the “industries” spreadsheet.  The industries spreadsheet gives you performance values for all 215 industries on a single page.  The “companies” spreadsheet, used to view performance of all the companies in an industry, can be downloaded freely by clicking on the Excel Files link on the website.  XLQPlus is required. 

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