|
Stock Portfolios
Reviewed
Weekly
|
A Growth-Value portfolio and the Price Channel
portfolio are included in the
weekly newsletter. Stocks are selected for the Top-Down
portfolio in the free monthly newsletter. You can sign up for
the both newsletters here where both short term and long term
positions are suggested. Newsletter Signup
Temporarily Suspended
Goals:
The goal is to double your capital in
three years. We attempt to do this by increasing your capital at a
compounded rate of 26% a year. Short term trading is well
ahead of this goal while longer term portfolios have a way to go.
The portfolios typically maintain a variable size list of growth and
value stocks. At least one new selection is added each month. |
Performance
Stock Trades
for 2008
Stock Trading
for
2009 - below
Short
Term Trading
|
Stocks for 7
Weeks |
|
Weekly
Trading |
|
5% Average
Profit |
|
56% winning
trades |
|
Total of 18
trades |
|
Profit
excluding fees 9% |
|
Short term
results in a trending market assume using 10% of risk
capital per trade and rigorously following entry and exit
guidelines. This is not a typical
short term advisory that tells you when to buy and sell. The
market has been too volatile for that. Rather, the weekly
newsletter provides a template for whether or not to trade. Knowing when not
to trade is as important as pulling the trigger. When the
template was followed, the above results were obtained
relative to initial risk capital. You
will find this template useful for years to come.
|
|
Trading in
Volatile Markets in 2009 ($20000 Initial Capital) |
% Initial
Capital |
|
Closed trades = |
18 |
|
|
Average Trade
Size = |
$2,000 |
|
|
Total Closed
Position Share costs = |
$36,000 |
|
|
Gross Profit on
Closed Positions = |
$578.80 |
2.9% |
|
Number of Open
Positions = |
0 |
|
|
Cost of Open
Positions = |
$0 |
|
|
Gross Profit on
Open Positions in 2008 = |
$0.00 |
0.0% |
|
Total Gross
Profit = |
$578.80 |
2.89% |
|
Broker
Commission ($9.99/trade) = |
-$359.64 |
|
|
Subscription
Cost to date = |
-$8.17 |
|
|
Net Profit After
Expenses = |
$211.00 |
1.1% |
|
Cash =
|
$20,219.16 |
|
|
Current Capital
= |
$20,219.16 |
4/24/09 |
|
Short term
results in a sideways market assume using 10% of risk
capital per trade and rigorously following entry and exit
guidelines. This advisory tells you
when to buy and sell.
|
Longer Term Portfolios
Growth-Value Stocks in 2009
|
Growth-Value
Trading in 2009 ($10000 Initial Capital) |
% Initial
Capital |
|
Closed
trades = |
7 |
|
|
Average
Trade Size = |
$1,000.00 |
|
|
Total Closed
Position Share costs = |
$7,000.00 |
|
|
Gross Profit
on Closed Positions = |
-$36.17 |
-0.36% |
|
Number of
Open Positions = |
3 |
|
|
Cost of Open
Positions = |
$3,000.00 |
|
|
Gross Profit
on Open Positions = |
-$192.83 |
-1.93% |
|
Total Gross
Profit = |
-$229.00 |
-2.29% |
|
Broker
Commission ($9.99/trade) = |
-$129.87 |
|
|
Subscription
Cost to date = |
-$8.17 |
|
|
Net Profit
After Expenses = |
-$367.04 |
-3.67% |
|
Cash =
|
$6,825.79 |
|
|
Current
Capital = |
$9,615.14 |
4/24/09 |
Top-Down Stocks in 2009
|
Top-Down
Trading in 2009 ($10000 Initial Capital) |
% Initial
Capital |
|
Closed
trades = |
1 |
|
|
Average
Trade Size = |
$1,000.00 |
|
|
Total Closed
Position Share costs = |
$1,000.00 |
|
|
Gross Profit
on Closed Positions = |
$80.85 |
0.81% |
|
Number of
Open Positions = |
4 |
|
|
Cost of Open
Positions = |
$4,000.00 |
|
|
Gross Profit
on Open Positions = |
-$372.65 |
-3.73% |
|
Total Gross
Profit = |
-$291.80 |
-2.92% |
|
Broker
Commission ($9.99/trade) = |
-$19.98 |
|
|
Subscription
Cost to date = |
$0.00 |
|
|
Net Profit
After Expenses = |
-$311.78 |
-3.12% |
|
Cash =
|
$6,060.87 |
|
|
Current
Capital = |
$9,688.22 |
4/24/09 |
Price Channel Portfolio in
2009
|
Price
Channel Trading in 2009 ($10000 Initial Capital) |
% Initial
Capital |
|
Closed
trades in = |
2 |
|
|
Average
Trade Size = |
$1,000 |
|
|
Total Closed
Position Share costs = |
$2,000 |
|
|
Gross Profit
on Closed Positions = |
-$179.19 |
-1.8% |
|
Number of
Open Positions = |
0 |
|
|
Cost of Open
Positions = |
$0 |
|
|
Gross Profit
on Open Positions = |
$0.00 |
0.0% |
|
Total Gross
Profit = |
-$179.19 |
-1.79% |
|
Broker
Commission ($9.99/trade) = |
-$39.96 |
|
|
Subscription
Cost to date = |
-$8.17 |
|
|
Net Profit
After Expenses = |
-$227.31 |
-2.3% |
|
Cash =
|
$9,772.69 |
|
|
Current
Capital = |
$9,772.69 |
4/24/09 |
Long - Short Portfolio in
2009
|
Long - Short
Pairs Trading in 2009 ($10000 Initial Capital) |
% Initial
Capital |
|
Closed
trades = |
2 |
|
|
Average
Trade Size = |
$947.76 |
|
|
Total Closed
Position Share costs = |
$1,896 |
|
|
Gross Profit
on Closed Positions = |
-$22.72 |
-0.2% |
|
Number of
Open Positions = |
1 |
|
|
Cost of Open
Positions = |
$980.25 |
|
|
Gross Profit
on Open Positions = |
-$52.31 |
-0.5% |
|
Total Gross
Profit = |
-$75.03 |
-0.75% |
|
Broker
Commission ($9.99/trade) = |
-$79.92 |
|
|
Subscription
Cost to date = |
-$8.17 |
|
|
Net Profit
After Expenses = |
-$163.12 |
-1.6% |
|
Cash =
|
$8,908.94 |
|
|
Current
Capital = |
$9,813.57 |
4/24/09 |
|
Major
Indices Year to Date |
Relative
to |
Relative
to |
|
Index |
12/31/08 |
4/25/09 |
% Chg |
SMA 200 |
52 wk
High |
|
DOW |
8776.39 |
8,076.29 |
-7.98% |
-11.56% |
-38.15% |
|
NASDAQ |
1577.03 |
1,694.29 |
7.44% |
-4.09% |
-33.56% |
|
S&P500 |
903.25 |
866.23 |
-4.10% |
-10.77% |
-39.28% |
|
NYSE |
5757.05 |
5,468.41 |
-5.01% |
-11.83% |
-43.06% |
|
Russell
2K |
499.45 |
478.74 |
-4.15% |
-10.44% |
-37.28% |
|
Average |
|
|
-2.76% |
|
-38.26% |
Value
Filters
|
Metric Description |
Stock Value That Reduced Risk of Loss * |
Ratio of Stock Value to Industry Value * |
|
Price to
Earnings (PE) |
(7) 10 to 15 |
0.5 to 0.75 (1) |
|
Price to
Book (PB) |
< 1 |
0.5 to 0.75 (1) |
|
Price to
Sales (PS) |
< 0.5 (1) |
0.5 to 0.75 (1) |
|
Return on
Equity (ROE) |
10 to 20 |
2 to 3 |
|
Price to
Free Cash Flow (P-FCF) |
< 5 (10) |
(0.5) 0.75 to 1 |
|
* Numbers in parenthesis are to extend
the range. |
Growth-Momentum Filters
|
Description |
(1) Stock Candidate |
(2) Down-market
|
|
Stocks |
Long Positions |
Short Positions |
|
Market direction |
Up, Sideways |
Down, Sideways |
|
Price |
> $15 |
> $30 |
|
12 month EPS growth |
> 80% |
< 20% |
|
Relative Strength |
26 wk > 90% |
26 wk < 20% |
|
Price within |
5% of 52wk high |
5% of 52 wk low |
|
Exchanges |
NASDAQ, NYSE |
NASDAQ, NYSE |
Top-Down Filter
|
The top-down filter
selects stocks in leading sectors and industries that show
growth in market share, sales and earnings. |
Price Channel Filter
|
The
Price Channel filter selects trending stocks whose prices
fit within a rising (long positions) or falling (short
positions) price channel. |
Long-Short Pairs Filter
|
The
Long-Short Pairs filter selects a pair of stocks, one long
and one short, whosr price ratio has deviated from its long
term average |
|
|
